🎮 Autonomous weapons are moving from engineering concept to army arsenals all around the world, and reports on their combat use are becoming more frequent.

The first surprise about drones is that non-government military groups were the first to use them in different conflicts, writes Vadim Kozyulin.

#drones #weapons #security

🇦🇫🌏 The defeat and abrupt withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, coupled with the instant collapse of the regime it had built in that country, has raised the issue of ensuring security, both for Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours and for countries with serious interests in the region.

The alarming uncertainty surrounding Afghanistan is likely to last years or decades. During this time, the Afghan factor will have a decisive influence on regional security, pushing the states of the region to cooperate not only in the military sphere, but also in the economy and politics.

The main threat is the use of Afghanistan as a base to destabilise adjacent territories.

Given the evidently low level of centralisation of the new Afghan state, this could happen in spite of Kabul’s intentions, writes Valdai Club expert Vasily Kashin. He is a speaker of the second session of the Russian-Uzbek conference in Tashkent.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/afghanistan-and-regional-security-problems/

#Valdai_ThinkTank #Afghanistan #CentralAsia #security

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇺🇸🇨🇳 The strategic situation for the United States is changing in connection with the growing confrontation with China.

It is changing, perhaps, really uncomfortably for Washington, which could not have calculated in advance the promptness of China’s reaction and the consequences of maintaining a confrontational policy with Beijing and Moscow at once.

This opens up a window of opportunity for Russia, since a confrontation with two opponents of equal strategic systems at once will be a burden for the United States, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Yermakov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/us-nuclear-forces-announce-the-breathtaking-growth/

#Security #UnitedStates #China #weapons

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🛡🏰 It is not yet clear what will replace the post-Cold War order in Europe.

🔹 Russia professes an increasing turn toward Eurasia; the most recent Russian national security strategy barely mentions Europe.

🔹 The US has identified China as its major rival and security challenge in the foreseeable future, and seeks to enlist Europe in this effort.

🔹 The EU is still adjusting to the loss of a major member state and contributing economy, while also deliberating its future security and defense capabilities and posture, given a possible reduction in American involvement in Europe.

🔹 The OSCE is preparing to celebrate its fiftieth anniversary in 2025, but it remains unclear whether any of the major participating states is prepared to use the Organization as a forum or instrument for anything truly important. 

So, what will the emerging European security order look like? Writes William Hill, Global Fellow at Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies.

🔗 The Post-Cold War European Security Order Is Gone: What Will Replace It?

#Conflict_and_Leadership #Europe #ColdWar #security #NATO #OSCE

📷 ©Reuters

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🌐 Today the world persists in falsely perceiving threats.

Persuading such elites to return to realism is much more difficult than, say, doing so where senators and members of the House of Representatives are still alive who participated in Cold War conflicts, in détente and in disarmament negotiations. 

In Europe, a generation of elites who thought strategically and understood the basis of peace in Europe is fading into history. The new generation is incapable of tough negotiations with big stakes: they are spoiled by peace and very short-sighted in their assessments, which are based on the “crystal grid” of US military guarantees.

The intellectual discourse of Americans is still being formed, among other things, by people who know what a real war is: not from their history books, but from the forests of Vietnam, the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan.

Leadership always implies sacrifice, a willingness to lose, and a willingness to accept responsibility. This quality becomes inaccessible to those who are accustomed to shifting their responsibility for well-being and security to others. That is why Europe finds itself on the margins of the current discussions going on between Russia and the United States on the issue of European security, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

🔗 Leadership and Strategic Thinking in the Long-Term Peace Era

🔵 The article is published within the framework of a new Valdai Club programme “Modern Diplomacy”.

#ModernDiplomacy #Security #Europe

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🌎⚡️🌏 The current configuration of the World Order has no more room for a single nation to decide the entire world agenda, whether in geopolitics or economics.

International relations are now entering a stage that we could qualify as a “Late Post-Cold War Era”, an era when American supremacy is in the process of being overcome by the new reality of the country: its geopolitical decline.

Fears that Russia is growing stronger as a nation under more capable leadership have taken root in Washington. Successive US administrations have sought to classify Russia as a threat to European or global “security” without offering any concrete examples.

NATO’s attempt to move “towards” Russia by establishing a Ukrainian “beachhead” has been developing since late 2021 and has faced vigorous opposition from the Kremlin.

What is now at stake in Ukraine regarding NATO membership is whether Russia as a nation has the right to guarantee the minimum security conditions for its population and territory, writes Charles Pennaforte, Professor at the Federal University of Pelotas (Brazil).

🔗 The Strategic Partnership Between Moscow and Beijing Towards the Late Post-Cold War Era

#ModernDiplomacy #geopolitics #security

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club