🏰 The Ukrainian crisis has given birth to new strategic constants.

Along with the degradation of the unipolar world order, the conflict has painted a picture of a new balance of power in Europe, which escapes the analysis of Western experts. 

The Ukrainian crisis has led to a situation where the voice of the Eastern European countries and, in particular, Poland, is beginning to determine European foreign policy interests. This state of affairs is unique in modern history.

Many historians have always positioned Eastern Europe at the “crossroads” of Europe; it is portrayed as the constant battlefield for rival empires. Today, Eastern European countries are not only acquiring strategic agency, but are also coming to the forefront of European politics.

The immediate task of Warsaw is to become the main European militarist, and to create a large military counterweight against Russia on Polish territory in case Ukraine is defeated. Poland is creating points of tension for Russia along the entire perimeter of its borders: military exercises on the border with the Kaliningrad region, and manoeuvres near the borders of Belarus. All of this shows that Warsaw is striving to seize the strategic initiative in the European Union and could potentially become its main actor if the conflict extends beyond the territory of Ukraine.

The West in its “Eastern European edition” seeks to reduce the opportunities for Russia and Belarus to act together in the developing crisis.

The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is a joint step by Moscow and Minsk, which is of a deterrent nature and should deprive Warsaw of any illusions about Russia’s lack of determination to maintain a balance of threats.

It is possible that in the future, the current crisis with the West will begin to resemble the mature years of the Cold War with its system of mutual military deterrence, writes Valdai Club Programme Director🗣 Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/wag-the-dog/

#ModernDiplomacy #Europe

@valdai_club

🇪🇺 The Ukrainian crisis itself was, to a certain extent, the result of the fact that the continental Europe has lost all ability to be strategically independent.

This occurred as part of a gradual process that combined the consequences of the events of the middle of the last century and the failure of attempts to build a genuine political union on the basis of European integration, combining this with the expansion of the membership and the creation of a common economic policy through financial instruments within the Eurozone.

The actual position of Europeans in world politics is increasingly consistent with how we might see it in terms of abstract assessments of the relationship with the United States and their ability to act independently, Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/consequences-of-europe-s-strategic-failure/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #EU #Europe

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🇪🇺 At the beginning of March 2024, the European Commission adopted and published the European Defence Industrial Strategy (“Strategy”) and the European Defence Industry Programme (“Programme”).

These measures were a reaction to Russia’s overall success, both amid its Special Military Operation, as well as in mobilizing the resources of its military-industrial complex.

The current circumstances require the EU and its member states to take immediate action, both to replace weapons supplied to Ukraine and to build up their own military potential, as well as to ensure new supplies.

This step towards establishing a common military-industrial complex for the European Union seems logical, but one should not expect results from its implementation in the short term, write Kirill Seroshtanov and Alexey Timoshenko.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/militarisation-of-the-european-union-beating-plows/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Europe #militarisation

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