🇦🇲🇹🇷 What is going on between Armenia and Turkey?
The defeat in the 45-day war of 2020 has challenged the foundations of Armenia’s security architecture. The trilateral ceasefire statement of November 9, 2020, followed by months of unnerving domestic turmoil, professed a guaranteed demise for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government.
However, the snap parliamentary elections on June 20 helped him emerge from what many had considered an unpreventable “political Armageddon”. Winning the elections, however, did not protect him from the need to face pressing issues like negotiating for the return of prisoners of war (POWs) from Azerbaijan, border security problems, rebuilding the tarnished army, starting the demarcation and delimitation of the border with Azerbaijan, restarting the negotiations on the status and security of Nagorno Karabakh, and containing Azerbaijan’s tough posturing vis-a-vis Armenia’s borders.
No less pertinent is the question of Armenia’s relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s pivotal ally in its recent war against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
❓Are Armenia and Turkey embarking on another process of rapprochement?
❓What are the chances for it to succeed this time, considering the previous failed cases of rapprochement in 1992-93 and 2008-09?
👉 Writes Vahram Ter-Matevosyan, Associate Professor, Program Chair of Political Science and International Affairs program, American University of Armenia.
🔗 Armenia and Turkey: Rapprochement 3.0?
🔵 The article is published within the framework of a new Valdai Club programme “Economic statecraft”.
#EconomicStatecraft #Armenia #Turkey
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
The defeat in the 45-day war of 2020 has challenged the foundations of Armenia’s security architecture. The trilateral ceasefire statement of November 9, 2020, followed by months of unnerving domestic turmoil, professed a guaranteed demise for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government.
However, the snap parliamentary elections on June 20 helped him emerge from what many had considered an unpreventable “political Armageddon”. Winning the elections, however, did not protect him from the need to face pressing issues like negotiating for the return of prisoners of war (POWs) from Azerbaijan, border security problems, rebuilding the tarnished army, starting the demarcation and delimitation of the border with Azerbaijan, restarting the negotiations on the status and security of Nagorno Karabakh, and containing Azerbaijan’s tough posturing vis-a-vis Armenia’s borders.
No less pertinent is the question of Armenia’s relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s pivotal ally in its recent war against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
❓Are Armenia and Turkey embarking on another process of rapprochement?
❓What are the chances for it to succeed this time, considering the previous failed cases of rapprochement in 1992-93 and 2008-09?
👉 Writes Vahram Ter-Matevosyan, Associate Professor, Program Chair of Political Science and International Affairs program, American University of Armenia.
🔗 Armenia and Turkey: Rapprochement 3.0?
🔵 The article is published within the framework of a new Valdai Club programme “Economic statecraft”.
#EconomicStatecraft #Armenia #Turkey
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Armenia and Turkey: Rapprochement 3.0?
Given the post-war realities and the pressure coming from different capitals, the Armenian authorities must slow down, take into account the institutional realities and capabilities within Armenia, and correctly analyse the primary and secondary layers of…
🇹🇷🇦🇲 Is the new opening in Turkish-Armenian likely to succeed?
The recent recovery by Azerbaijan of its territories has transformed the context of Turkish-Armenian relations in two fundamental ways.
1️⃣ The first and more obvious one is that Turkey and Azerbaijan, happy with the outcome, are now interested in establishing durable peace and stability in the region. This aspiration, however, cannot be achieved without change on the Armenian side.
2️⃣ This is where the second, equally important but perhaps less obvious change comes in. Armenia appears to have shifted its somewhat irredentist foreign policy premise of acquiring territory from neighbours to construct a larger Armenia to one which prefers achieving security and economic prosperity by developing peaceful relations with them.
Both Turkey and Armenia seem to be interested in developing better relations, writes Ilter Turan, Emeritus Professor of International Relations at Istanbul Bilgi University.
🔗 Thaw in Turkish-Armenian Relations: A Hopeful Beginning?
🔵 The article is published within the framework of a new Valdai Club programme “Economic statecraft”.
#EconomicStatecraft #Armenia #Turkey
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
The recent recovery by Azerbaijan of its territories has transformed the context of Turkish-Armenian relations in two fundamental ways.
1️⃣ The first and more obvious one is that Turkey and Azerbaijan, happy with the outcome, are now interested in establishing durable peace and stability in the region. This aspiration, however, cannot be achieved without change on the Armenian side.
2️⃣ This is where the second, equally important but perhaps less obvious change comes in. Armenia appears to have shifted its somewhat irredentist foreign policy premise of acquiring territory from neighbours to construct a larger Armenia to one which prefers achieving security and economic prosperity by developing peaceful relations with them.
Both Turkey and Armenia seem to be interested in developing better relations, writes Ilter Turan, Emeritus Professor of International Relations at Istanbul Bilgi University.
🔗 Thaw in Turkish-Armenian Relations: A Hopeful Beginning?
🔵 The article is published within the framework of a new Valdai Club programme “Economic statecraft”.
#EconomicStatecraft #Armenia #Turkey
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Thaw in Turkish-Armenian Relations: A Hopeful Beginning?
The fact that Prime Minister Pashinyan achieved a major electoral victory afterwards and the ensuing policy shift suggests that the Armenian electorate may be more interested in peace and prosperity than in pursuing irredentist foreign policy adventures,…
🇦🇲🇹🇷 The establishment of direct trade and economic relations between Armenia and Turkey will contribute to the mitigation of hostile sentiments.
The gradual building of peaceful relations between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan, which is an extremely important task for other countries in the region.
The establishment of direct Armenian-Turkish trade and economic relations will lead to a transformation of regional geopolitics and geo-economic balances. It is important to assess these changes, especially from the positions of regional and world powers, each state of the South Caucasus and all neighbouring countries, writes Ara Karyan, Russian-Armenian University, Ph.D. , associate professor, platform coordinator at the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAU.
🔗 Ublocking Closed Transport Links in the Caucasus: Opening the Border of Armenia and Turkey
#Asia_and_Eurasia #Armenia #Turkey
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
The gradual building of peaceful relations between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan, which is an extremely important task for other countries in the region.
The establishment of direct Armenian-Turkish trade and economic relations will lead to a transformation of regional geopolitics and geo-economic balances. It is important to assess these changes, especially from the positions of regional and world powers, each state of the South Caucasus and all neighbouring countries, writes Ara Karyan, Russian-Armenian University, Ph.D. , associate professor, platform coordinator at the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAU.
🔗 Ublocking Closed Transport Links in the Caucasus: Opening the Border of Armenia and Turkey
#Asia_and_Eurasia #Armenia #Turkey
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Ublocking Closed Transport Links in the Caucasus: Opening the Border of Armenia and Turkey
There’s no doubt as to the relevance of the possibility that transport and all other links in the Transcaucasus will be unblocked; it would entail the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border and establishment of direct trade and economic relations between…
🇦🇿🇦🇲 The re-opening of the trans-Zangazur route is very important for Azerbaijan.
For Azerbaijan, the Zangazur corridor is a shorter route to connect with the Nakhchivan exclave and Turkey.
The Zangazur corridor does not include only a railway link, but also a highway between the two parts of Azerbaijan. This is one area on which the sides have yet to reach an agreement.
The complete re-opening of regional transportation routes is in the interest of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as of their extra-regional potential users, particularly Russia, Turkey, Iran, the European Union and China.
Thanks to the new situation, Armenia will also overcome its relative isolation in the situation in this region and become part of the Middle Corridor, writes Valdai Club expert Vasif Huseynov.
🔗 Zangazur Corridor is the Cornerstone of the Post-War Regional Cooperation Projects in the South Caucasus
#Asia_and_Eurasia #Azerbaijan #Armenia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
For Azerbaijan, the Zangazur corridor is a shorter route to connect with the Nakhchivan exclave and Turkey.
The Zangazur corridor does not include only a railway link, but also a highway between the two parts of Azerbaijan. This is one area on which the sides have yet to reach an agreement.
The complete re-opening of regional transportation routes is in the interest of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as of their extra-regional potential users, particularly Russia, Turkey, Iran, the European Union and China.
Thanks to the new situation, Armenia will also overcome its relative isolation in the situation in this region and become part of the Middle Corridor, writes Valdai Club expert Vasif Huseynov.
🔗 Zangazur Corridor is the Cornerstone of the Post-War Regional Cooperation Projects in the South Caucasus
#Asia_and_Eurasia #Azerbaijan #Armenia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Zangazur Corridor is the Cornerstone of the Post-War Regional Cooperation Projects in the South Caucasus
The territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the occupied territories of the latter has impeded the rapid economic development of the two warring parties and stood in the way of the regional economic and political integration of the South…
🇷🇺🇦🇲 On June 20, the Valdai Club and the Orbeli Centre will hold a joint seminar titled “South Caucasus and the Crisis in Europe: Common Factors and Behaviour of Regional Powers”.
Cooperation between Russia and Armenia is strategic in nature and is consistent with both states’ fundamental development interests.
The goal of the first joint seminar of the Orbeli Centre and the Valdai Club is to provide the leading Armenian and Russian experts with an opportunity to discuss the magnitude of the European crisis’s impact on the situation in South Caucasus, individual aspects of this impact, as well as changes in the behavior of the main regional actors, and the essence of the processes underway there.
The seminar will include two sessions; “South Caucasus and the Crisis in Europe: The General Consequences” and “Regional Powers’ Policies Amid the New Conditions.”
#valdaiclub #Armenia #Caucasus
@valdai_club
Cooperation between Russia and Armenia is strategic in nature and is consistent with both states’ fundamental development interests.
The goal of the first joint seminar of the Orbeli Centre and the Valdai Club is to provide the leading Armenian and Russian experts with an opportunity to discuss the magnitude of the European crisis’s impact on the situation in South Caucasus, individual aspects of this impact, as well as changes in the behavior of the main regional actors, and the essence of the processes underway there.
The seminar will include two sessions; “South Caucasus and the Crisis in Europe: The General Consequences” and “Regional Powers’ Policies Amid the New Conditions.”
#valdaiclub #Armenia #Caucasus
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
South Caucasus and the Crisis in Europe: Common Factors and Behaviour of Regional Powers
On June 20, the Valdai Club and the Orbeli Centre will hold a joint seminar titled “South Caucasus and the Crisis in Europe: Common Factors and Behaviour of Regional Powers”.
🇦🇲🇦🇿 The exodus of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 was the final chapter in the 35-year history of the Karabakh movement.
Most citizens of the then Soviet Union learned about it in February 1988 – after an extraordinary session of people’s deputies of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region addressed the Supreme Soviets in Moscow, Yerevan and Baku with a request to consider the issue of transferring the region from the Azerbaijan SSR to the Armenian SSR.
Despite the sensitive defeats during the “first” Karabakh war of 1991-1994, Azerbaijan never hid its ultimate goal of gaining complete control over the lost territories through political-diplomatic or military means, strengthening the army and other security forces, as well as forming a favourable political and diplomatic background for itself.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan restored military and administrative control over the entire territory of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which, in accordance with the decree of its last president Samvel Shahramanyan, ceased to exist on January 1, 2024.
The multidirectional geopolitical interests of regional and external players, which directly influence the difficult socio-political transformations in the region, keep us from being optimistic about the rapid transformation of the South Caucasus into a zone of peace – even if some document on the normalisation of relations between Baku and Yerevan has formally acquired legal status, Andrei Areshev writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/azerbaijan-armenia-can-the-south-caucasus-become/
#WiderEurasia #SouthCaucasus #NagornoKarabakh #Armenia #Azerbaijan
🗣 🗣 🗣
Most citizens of the then Soviet Union learned about it in February 1988 – after an extraordinary session of people’s deputies of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region addressed the Supreme Soviets in Moscow, Yerevan and Baku with a request to consider the issue of transferring the region from the Azerbaijan SSR to the Armenian SSR.
Despite the sensitive defeats during the “first” Karabakh war of 1991-1994, Azerbaijan never hid its ultimate goal of gaining complete control over the lost territories through political-diplomatic or military means, strengthening the army and other security forces, as well as forming a favourable political and diplomatic background for itself.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan restored military and administrative control over the entire territory of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which, in accordance with the decree of its last president Samvel Shahramanyan, ceased to exist on January 1, 2024.
The multidirectional geopolitical interests of regional and external players, which directly influence the difficult socio-political transformations in the region, keep us from being optimistic about the rapid transformation of the South Caucasus into a zone of peace – even if some document on the normalisation of relations between Baku and Yerevan has formally acquired legal status, Andrei Areshev writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/azerbaijan-armenia-can-the-south-caucasus-become/
#WiderEurasia #SouthCaucasus #NagornoKarabakh #Armenia #Azerbaijan
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Valdai Club
Azerbaijan – Armenia: Can the South Caucasus Become a Region of Peace?
The multidirectional geopolitical interests of regional and external players, which directly influence the difficult socio-political transformations in the region, keep us from being optimistic about the rapid transformation of the South Caucasus into a zone…