Valdai Discussion Club
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🇰🇷🇰🇵 One gets the impression that at present both Pyongyang and Seoul are trying to aggravate the situation. 

Analysts acknowledge that the situation on the Korean Peninsula since the early 2022 has steadily begun to trend towards a consistent increase in tension.

But the events of recent weeks have given this process significant impetus.

The topic of an imminent new (seventh) nuclear test by the DPRK has begun to be actively discussed both in Seoul and Washington.

What one side considers a necessary measure of self-defence, the other side, not without reason, perceives as an “intolerable provocation”, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Vorontsov.

🔗 The End of Military and Political Stability on the Korean Peninsula

#EconomicStatecraft #DPRK #SouthKorea

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
🇮🇳🌏 India has close geo-political and geo-cultural relationship with the countries in Central Asia.

Despite similar security concerns emanating from Afghanistan and mutual close cultural ties due to geographical proximity, India and the Central Asian countries were unable to impart a geo-economic logic to their relations due to lack of direct connectivity.

India had announced its Connect Central Asia policy in 2012 at Bishkek, seeking to connect with Central Asia through physical, air, people to people and digital connectivity.

However, despite its forward looking attitude, the policy suffered due to lack of institutionalised mechanisms to engage Central Asian countries at the political and economic levels. At the same time, connectivity initiatives could not pick pace due to geopolitical strains, writes Raj Kumar Sharma.

#CentralAsianValdai2022 #Asia_and_Eurasia #India

@valdai_club
🌏🌎 It is already obvious that the road to peace in Eastern Europe will be accompanied by extremely dangerous situations.

In his speech to the participants in the Davos forum, Henry Kissinger, the patriarch of international politics, pointed to just such a prospect as the least desirable from his point of view, since Russia then “could alienate itself completely from Europe and seek a permanent alliance elsewhere”, which would lead to the emergence of diplomatic distances on the scale of the Cold War.

In his opinion, peace talks between the parties would be the most expedient way to prevent this; these would result in Russian interests being taken into account.

For Kissinger, this means that in some respect, Russia’s participation in the European “concert” is an unconditional value, and the loss of this must be prevented as long as some chance remains.

However, with all the highest appreciation of the merits and wisdom of this statesman and scholar, the impeccable logic of Henry Kissinger faces only one obstacle — it works when the balance of power is determined and relations between states have already passed the stage of military conflict, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Kissinger #WorldOrder

@valdai_club
📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On June 2 at 2:00 pm, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “The Russian Economy and the Onslaught of the West: What Will Be the Response to New Challenges?”

Since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia has faced an unprecedented amount of sanctions, mostly from Western countries. Measures have been taken to exclude Russia from the world's economic, financial and trading systems.

Although the target of sanctions is the Russian economy, they will have a tangible negative effect on the entire world economic system. World Bank President David Malpass noted that the sanctions will affect global GDP more than the situation in Ukraine itself.

At the same time, the Russian economy, despite the escalation of geopolitical risks, has demonstrated the stability of the rouble exchange rate, which limits the impetus for the further acceleration of inflation. In the global economy, the structure of Russian foreign trade is actively changing in favour of Asia, while a growing number of Russian partners are switching to settlements in national currencies. Domestically, the Russian government is developing targeted support measures for citizens and key sectors of the economy, including high-tech areas such as the IT sector.

Against the backdrop of unprecedented challenges for the Russian economy in 2022, there is a need for the further reorientation of trade and investment flows, the formation of new economic alliances, and new measures to stimulate the economy.

How effective are the attempts of Western countries to exclude Russia from the world economic and trade system? What are the global implications?

What will Russia's economic strategy be, and what measures will be taken to support employment and economic activity?

Are there any prospects for the de-dollarisation of the world economy and the transfer of foreign trade settlements into national currencies?

Participants of the expert discussion will try to find answers to these and many other questions.

👥 Speakers:

🇷🇺 Leonid Grigoryev, Academic Supervisor of the Department of World Economy, Head of the Master's Programme in World Economy at FMEMP, Higher School of Economics

🇷🇺 Sergey Krasilnikov, Vice President, Managing Director of International Relations and Integration Directorate, The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs

🇷🇺 Natalia Stapran, Director of the Department for Multilateral Economic Cooperation and Special Projects, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation

🇨🇳 Liu Zhiqin, senior research fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY)

Moderator:

🚩 Andrey BystritskiyChairman of the Board of the Foundation of the Valdai Club

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to be accredited to the event, please fill out the form on our website or call +7 926 930 77 63.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online-platforms of the Valdai Club: on the
website, on Telegram and Twitter.

@valdai_club
Valdai Discussion Club pinned «📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On June 2 at 2:00 pm, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “The Russian Economy and the Onslaught of the West: What Will Be the Response to New Challenges?” Since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia…»
TODAY at 2:00 pm, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “The Russian Economy and the Onslaught of the West: What Will Be the Response to New Challenges?”

How effective are the attempts of Western countries to exclude Russia from the world economic and trade system? What are the global implications?

What will Russia's economic strategy be, and what measures will be taken to support employment and economic activity?

Are there any prospects for the de-dollarisation of the world economy and the transfer of foreign trade settlements into national currencies?

Participants of the expert discussion will try to find answers to these and many other questions.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online-platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, on Telegram and Twitter.

@valdai_club
🇨🇳🇪🇺 In parallel to the continued prominence of the economic and trade link in overall China-EU relations, a trend of compartmentalisation is also developing.

The growth of economic and trade relations has not prevented a cooling down of the political relations between the two. Over the past several years, the two sides have had deep disagreements on issues related to Xinjiang and Hong Kong; EU criticisms of China’s governance model have been getting harsher.

The pandemic confirmed this trend. China’s speedy rebound from the first wave of the virus in mid-2020 helped to cushion Europe from the much heavier economic blow it experienced. However, for the Europeans, the outbreak of the Covid pandemic seemed to confirm their suspicions regarding China, and saw China’s medical aid to others as “mask diplomacy” set to undermine their own soft power in a “battle of narratives”.

The year 2021 witnessed unusual setbacks in their bilateral relations. The exchange of sanctions and counter-sanctions between the two sides in early 2021 created a lingering sense of uneasiness regarding bilateral relations.

The Ukraine conflict exposed Europe’s dependence on Russia and will propel the EU to reconsider its economic links with China and the further develop of its toolbox to increase its “resilience”. Therefore, the conflicts would likely result in a stricter and more selective EU approach to economic links with China, writes Valdai Club expert Sun Chenghao.

#Asia_and_Eurasia #EU #China

@valdai_club
📷 Today, on June 2, Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “The Russian Economy and the Onslaught of the West: What Will Be the Response to New Challenges?”

Photo gallery of the discussion is available in our VK account.

The video of the discussion is available via this link.

Stay tuned!

@valdai_club
⛔️🌏 Sanctions as Kamikaze Activity with an Economic Zugzwang

On June 2, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “The Russian Economy and the Onslaught of the West: What Will Be the Response to New Challenges?”  

Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation of the Valdai Discussion Club, moderated the event.

💬 Natalia Stapran, Director of the Department for Multilateral Economic Cooperation and Special Projects at the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, described the sanctions imposed against Russia as "kamikaze actions". In other words, the side imposing sanctions is ready from the very beginning to incur damage itself, up to the destruction of entire industries. “Our task is also, despite all the difficulties, to build this aura of strategic autonomy,” the representative of the Ministry of Economic Development emphasised, adding that now there is a search for new partners on new frontiers, and China, India and other Asian partners are gaining special importance.

💬 Sergey Krasilnikov, Vice President and Managing Director of the International Relations and Integration Directorate at The Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, noted that Russian business is optimistic about the situation and, by its nature, is determined to cope with emerging difficulties. “There are losses, but there are also certain opportunities,” he said.

💬 Liu Zhiqin, Senior Research Fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY), noted that any action taken by Russia has elicited increased interest and empathy in China, especially in the past two months. In his opinion, Russia demonstrates a high degree of stability, both from an economic and a political point of view. The West, he believes, is now trying to isolate Russia from other partners, including China, in order to create its own system of world domination, and is also destroying the infrastructure of global business, seeking to exclude both Russia and China from the world market. “The challenges are numerous, but we can withstand them,” the Chinese expert believes.

💬 Leonid GrigoryevAcademic Supervisor of the Department of World Economy and Head of the Master's Programme in World Economy at FMEMP, Higher School of Economics, recalled that the first sanctions against Russia were introduced under Ivan the Terrible’s rule and that the only period when the country definitely had no problems with technology imports was before the First World War. Speaking about the sanctions themselves, Grigoriev pointed to their chaotic and “convulsive” nature, leading the situation to an actual zugzwang.

#valdaiclub #sanctions

@valdai_club
🦠🌐 62% of the population are expected to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by August 1.

We created an infographic on global weakening of the COVID-19 pandemic. The full high-res infographics is available here.

#valdai_infographics #COVID19 #pandemic

@valdai_club
🌍🌎 Today the evolution of the platforms of the Global South is at a crucial juncture.

Еhroughout the past several years significant steps have been undertaken by developing nations to build pan-continental integration platforms – in Africa it was the creation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), while in Eurasia the expansion of SCO membership was accompanied by the creation of RCEP.

The next stage in this process would be to link up all of the pan-continental platforms in Eurasia, Africa and Latin America into one common platform that would cover the bulk of the developing world with important implications for the future evolution in global governance.

On the other hand, the issue of the BRICS expansion that emerged in May 2022 suggests that rather than the aggregation of regional integration groups of the Global South under the banner of BRICS+ a different track is entertained by China and its BRICS partners that targets increasing the membership of the core of the Global South. 

Hence, the current dilemma of the Global South is the following: to prioritize the expansion in the core, or to place the emphasis on creating a horizontal network of regional alliances, writes Yaroslav Lissovolik, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

#Valdai_WorldEconomy #GlobalSouth

@valdai_club
🇷🇺🌏 A deep level of interdependence, ideally, should ensure the strategic nature of relations between the countries of Central Asia and Russia and guarantee the good-neighbourly nature of relations.

At the same time, the request for a multi-vector nature of the Central Asian republics, as well as sometimes domestic processes, have compelled the authorities of the countries in the region to look for ways to diversify their foreign policy, economic contacts, investments and technological packages.

The Ukrainian crisis has served as a serious catalyst for this process, prompting regional players to at least rethink the status quo.

The turn of Russian foreign policy to the East, announced earlier, is today becoming more and more relevant; it is impossible without a reset of relations with strategic partners in Central Asia, which should become a key transit space, a link between Russia and the countries of South Asia, writes Valdai Club expert Stanislav Pritchin.

#CentralAsianValdai2022 #Asia_and_Eurasia

@valdai_club
🇷🇺🇵🇰 ANNOUNCEMENT: On June 6, the first Russian-Pakistani expert dialogue between the Valdai  Discussion Club and Pakistan House analytical centre will take place, titled “Strategic relations between Russia and Pakistan”.

📍 The event will be held at the Moscow site of the Club; its address is: Tsvetnoy Boulevard, 16/1.

The main objective of the conference is to review the common challenges in the field of security and economic relations for the states of the Central Asian region as well as Russia and Pakistan during a critical period for the whole world.

Major Russian-Pakistani conferences are quite rare for the intellectual community of the two countries. The Valdai Club is acting as a pioneer in this respect.

During the one-day conference, Russian and Pakistani experts will discuss the following issues:

▪️ Russian-Pakistani security cooperation
▪️ The regional context of relations between Russia and Pakistan
▪️ Bilateral ties in the economic and social spheres

About 25 experts from Pakistan and Russia will take part in the Russian-Pakistani Expert Dialogue.

🇵🇰 From the Pakistani side, the expert dialogue will be attended by: Qazi M. Khalilullah, Executive Director, Center for International the Strategic Studies Sindh; Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to the Russian Federation (2016–2019); Muhammad Athar Javed, Pakistan House CEO; Mirza Aqeel Baig, Head of the Economic Department of the Institute of Business Management;  Shahida Wizarat,  Dean of the College of Economics and Social Development at the Institute of Business Management; Khalid Rabbani, Lieutenant General (ret.), Pakistan House Advisory Board member; and H.E. Shafqat Ali Khan, Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to the Russian Federation.

🇷🇺 From the Russian side, the participants of the conference will be: Mohammad Omar Nessar, Senior Researcher of the Center for the Study of the Countries of the Near and Middle East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Ivan Safranchuk, Director and Leading Researcher at the Centre for Eurasian Studies at MGIMO, Russian Foreign Ministry; Aleksei Kupriyanov, Head of the Group of South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region at the Centre for Asia-Pacific Studies, IMEMO RAS; Natalya Zamaraeva, senior researcher at the Centre for the Study of the Countries of the Near and Middle East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Vladimir Sotnikov, Senior Researcher, Department of Economic Research, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences; Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club; Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club; and Oleg Barabanov,  Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

Working languages: English, Russian.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online-platforms of the Valdai Club: on the
website, on Telegram and Twitter.

#Valdai_ThinkTank #Pakistan

@valdai_club
Valdai Discussion Club pinned «🇷🇺🇵🇰 ANNOUNCEMENT: On June 6, the first Russian-Pakistani expert dialogue between the Valdai  Discussion Club and Pakistan House analytical centre will take place, titled “Strategic relations between Russia and Pakistan”. 📍 The event will be held at the…»
📌 Programme of the Russia-Pakistan Expert Dialogue of the Valdai Discussion Club and Pakistan House “Russian-Pakistani Strategic Relations”

📍 Moscow, June 6, 2022

10:20–10:30 — Opening of the Conference
(Open for live broadcast and media)

10:30–12:00 — Session I. Russia-Pakistan Political and Security Relations (Open for live broadcast and media)

Relations between Russia and Pakistan have strengthened markedly in recent years. Cooperation has particularly intensified following Pakistan's accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. It is in progress, inter alia, in the defence and technical sphere. What are the prospects for further improvement of the bilateral political dialogue? What are the challenges to this? And what influence could recent developments have on the dynamics of bilateral relations: escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, on the one hand, and changes in the internal political situation and the change of the prime minister in Pakistan, on the other?

12:15–13:45 — Session II. Regional Context of Russian-Pakistani Relations

The Russian-Pakistani relations are determined, in particular, by the international and regional context. Both countries' membership inthe SCO and the set of relations that each has with Pakistan's neighbours in the region, including China, India, and Afghanistan, also play a role here. What impact do these external factors have on the Russian-Pakistani relations? And how realistic is the autonomous development of Russia-Pakistan cooperation without taking into account the international regional context? Or will bilateral interaction always be hostage to these complex external constraints?

15:00–16:30 — Session III. Bilateral Economic and Social Relations Between Russia and Pakistan

The development of political dialogue and cooperation between Russia and Pakistan has also had an impact on the dynamics of economic ties between the two countries, as well as on social contacts. What are the core interests of both sides? What challenges are worth overcoming? And how could the current sanctions situation affect bilateral economic projects?

🔗 The full Programme and the list of speakers is available on our website.

@valdai_club
Valdai Discussion Club pinned «📌 Programme of the Russia-Pakistan Expert Dialogue of the Valdai Discussion Club and Pakistan House “Russian-Pakistani Strategic Relations” 📍 Moscow, June 6, 2022 10:20–10:30 — Opening of the Conference (Open for live broadcast and media) 10:30–12:00 —…»
🇷🇺🇵🇰 TOMORROW, on June 6, the first Russian-Pakistani expert dialogue between the Valdai  Discussion Club and Pakistan House analytical centre will take place, titled “Strategic relations between Russia and Pakistan”.

During the one-day conference, Russian and Pakistani experts will discuss the following issues:

▪️ Russian-Pakistani security cooperation
▪️ The regional context of relations between Russia and Pakistan
▪️ Bilateral ties in the economic and social spheres

About 25 experts from Pakistan and Russia will take part in the Russian-Pakistani Expert Dialogue.

The opening and the first session of the conference will be available online. Watch the live broadcast at 10:20 a.m. Moscow time on our website.

📌 Programme of the Russia-Pakistan Expert Dialogue

#Valdai_ThinkTank #Pakistan

@valdaiclub
🇵🇰🇷🇺 Pakistan is a large regional state, as well as a member of the informal ‘club’ of states that possess nuclear weapons.

Islamabad's role as a policymaker is of great importance in terms of maintaining security and stability in South Asia and the Middle East.

In recent years, Pakistan has pursued an independent and balanced foreign policy, strengthening ties with Russia and China. Islamabad has repeatedly stressed that the sovereign foreign policy agenda of the country is fully consistent with the national interests of Pakistan.

Russia is interested in seeing Pakistan maintain and strengthen its balanced foreign policy in the future, one that is free from outside influence, writes Oleg Barabanov, Programme director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

💡 On June 6, 2022, Moscow will host the first Russian-Pakistani expert dialogue between the Valdai Discussion Club and the analytical centre Pakistan House – International Think Tank. Previously, the Valdai Club has repeatedly participated in expert events in Pakistan, and experts from various Pakistani analytical centres  have taken part in Valdai Club events, such as the Club's Annual Meeting, and the Middle East and Central Asian Conferences.

Now the Valdai Club and Pakistan House are entering a new stage of cooperation - a direct bilateral dialogue. It should be noted that major Russian-Pakistani conferences are still a rarity for the intellectual community of the two countries. The Valdai Club is one of the pioneers in this area.

#Valdai_ThinkTank #Pakistan

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