Forwarded from Russian MFA 🇷🇺
#Opinion by Maria Zakharova
Many of us wondered what #highlylikely meant and where it came from.
I would like to remind everyone that this uncommon English phrase was turned into a meme by the "marvellous" Theresa May, who said in the House of Commons on March 12, 2018, that it was “highly likely” that Russia was responsible for the attack on Sergey Skripal and his daughter, Yulia.
We have found the origin of the infamous expression.
It is the US Intelligence Community Directive 203, dated January 2, 2015, and signed by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.
Here is what is says on Page 3:
“For expressions of likelihood or probability, an analytic product must use one of the following set of terms:
01-05% – almost no chance, remote;
05-20% – very unlikely, highly improbable;
20-45% – unlikely, improbable;
45-55% – roughly even chance, roughly even odds;
55-80% – likely, probable;
80-95% - very likely, highly probable;
95-99% – almost сertain(ly), nearly certain.
Analysts are strongly encouraged not to mix terms from different rows.”
The British, who accepted that marvellous methodology, now post infographics on the government’s website to show which event is highly likely, a term the British have coined, and which has only a remote chance of occurring.
I wonder if the problem with Clapper’s set of terms is that he approved it on January 2?
Many of us wondered what #highlylikely meant and where it came from.
I would like to remind everyone that this uncommon English phrase was turned into a meme by the "marvellous" Theresa May, who said in the House of Commons on March 12, 2018, that it was “highly likely” that Russia was responsible for the attack on Sergey Skripal and his daughter, Yulia.
We have found the origin of the infamous expression.
It is the US Intelligence Community Directive 203, dated January 2, 2015, and signed by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.
Here is what is says on Page 3:
“For expressions of likelihood or probability, an analytic product must use one of the following set of terms:
01-05% – almost no chance, remote;
05-20% – very unlikely, highly improbable;
20-45% – unlikely, improbable;
45-55% – roughly even chance, roughly even odds;
55-80% – likely, probable;
80-95% - very likely, highly probable;
95-99% – almost сertain(ly), nearly certain.
Analysts are strongly encouraged not to mix terms from different rows.”
The British, who accepted that marvellous methodology, now post infographics on the government’s website to show which event is highly likely, a term the British have coined, and which has only a remote chance of occurring.
I wonder if the problem with Clapper’s set of terms is that he approved it on January 2?