🇧🇷 Eight Amazon rainforest countries open summit in Belem, Brazil

For the first time in 14 years, presidents of the South American nations home to the Amazon rainforest are converging to chart a common course for protection of the bioregion and address organized crime.

The summit Tuesday and Wednesday in the Brazilian city of Belem is a meeting of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has said he hopes the Belem summit will awaken the organization that has met only three times in 45 years.

It’s Lula’s second attempt to form an Amazon bloc. He tried back when the last Amazon summit was held in 2009, during his first presidency, but was joined by only one other president from the region, Bharrat Jagdeo of Guyana.

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❗️🇪🇨 Regarding the emergency situation in Ecuador

Up until now, Ecuador has declared a state of emergency in the country, implemented a curfew, restricted freedom of assembly, and acknowledged the presence of an internal armed conflict.

It all began on January 8th, when news broke about the escape of the most wanted criminal and leader of the notorious Los Choneros gang, known as Fito. He was previously accused of involvement in the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio and has been under heightened security since the summer. The fact that he managed to escape from custody is quite surreal.

In response to the state of emergency (and the subsequent crackdown on protests in prisons), gang leaders across the country started taking military personnel and police officers hostage. They demanded that the president improve the conditions of detention and refrain from using force during arrests. Otherwise, they threatened to kill the hostages (some have already been killed on camera).

President Daniel Noboa has already declined to negotiate with narco-terrorists and announced that more than three thousand law enforcement officers have been dispatched to search for the leader of Los Choneros. They are also patrolling the streets in an attempt to establish order, but their success has been limited so far.

❗️In the past few hours:

🔸An armed group stormed the premises of the TC Televisión channel and took journalists hostage. The building is currently being stormed by authorities.

🔸Another group entered the University of Guayaquil's premises and began looting shops. According to some reports, they are also attempting to kidnap people. Army units have been sent to the scene.

🔸Amidst all this, there have been numerous incidents of car arson, individual attacks, and murders. There have been reports, even from security forces themselves, that they sometimes mistake innocent individuals for criminals on the federal roads of Guayas province (which is where the main drug port of Guayaquil is located).

❗️As a result of this incident, virtually all major organized crime groups in Ecuador (including those operating in the United States) have been labeled as terrorists. They have taken control of most ports and federal highways. Additionally, surveillance systems have been transferred from provincial authorities to the federal government and army.

We are witnessing the transformation of the country into a stereotypical police state. Given the current situation on the streets, it is unlikely that the population will object to this.
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❗️🇪🇨 Emergency in Ecuador
What is known as of 14:00 on January 10: The leaders of the countries in the continent have expressed support for President Noboa's actions in combating gangs in Ecuador.

▪️ The Security Minister of Argentina even mentioned the possibility of sending military assistance to Ecuador, as the drug trafficking problem is a continental issue that concerns not only Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia, but also Argentina. However, no specific details about the assistance have been provided.

▪️ Meanwhile, the security forces in Peru have increased security measures in the border area with Ecuador. Initially, this was due to the alleged escape of the leader of the "Los Choneros" gang to Peru. Later, reports started to emerge about an influx of people arriving in the Peruvian border region from Ecuador. It is believed that these individuals include not only frightened citizens, but also those who couldn't legally stay in the country during the emergency, such as migrants from Venezuela.

▪️ The Ecuadorian police have denied some reports, such as an attack in the Guayaquil metro. However, information regarding the prevention of an explosion at the Ministry of Internal Affairs headquarters in Quito has been confirmed.

▪️ The Ecuadorian Parliament has given the green light to the elimination of terrorists and members of non-state groups at war, promising to grant pardon to police officers and soldiers.

🔻Local sources report that some businesses have closed, citizens are trying to stay indoors, and public transport has stopped operating in some areas. There is a significant presence of military equipment in cities, but armed attacks, looting, and massacres continue to occur.

▪️ Furthermore, the information landscape has been intensified by the escape of the second leader of the major gang, "Los Lobos" - Fabrizio Colon Pico. He and his accomplices escaped from prison, and the exact number of escapees is still unknown.

▪️ Amidst the worsening crime situation in Ecuador, representatives from the United States have also made their voices heard. The Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs stated that the United States will offer assistance to the Ecuadorian government and will maintain close contact with President Noboa.

❗️We can assume that American military advisers, as well as representatives from the FBI, may have already arrived in Ecuador to gather more information. However, it is unlikely that this will directly impact the safety of civilians.

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❗️🇪🇨 Emergency in Ecuador
Update as of 17:00 on January 11.

As of now, order has been maintained in the capital of Ecuador, Quito. Attacks are still occurring, but not on the same scale. The situation in the main financial center of the country, Guayaquil, where the world's largest port is located, appears to be much more dangerous.

▪️ However, logistics companies and the port itself continue to operate even in this situation. The roads are not blocked, allowing goods to be delivered on time. This indicates that the situation is developing favorably.

▪️ The Ecuadorian authorities have confirmed their plans to start building new prisons. There is also discussion about deporting foreign prisoners. The focus is mainly on Colombians and Venezuelans, who have contributed to the worsening crime statistics. However, it is possible that all individuals with legal stay issues may eventually be expelled along with them.

▪️ Members of terrorist groups are now declared military targets, and security forces who assist the criminals are considered accomplices. Purges within the security apparatus have also been announced.

▪️ The Peruvian government has declared a state of emergency in the northern territories bordering Ecuador and Colombia. Migration control has been strengthened, and police and army units have been dispatched to the area.

▪️ Brazilian authorities have expressed their readiness to provide their own police officers to assist Ecuador.

🔻For now, the United States has decided not to send its troops anywhere. However, interesting details about other military assistance have emerged.

The current unrest has given the administration of Daniel Noboa a reason to increase investment in the security apparatus. The President stated that the country would replace Soviet-made military equipment with new American models. In return, Ecuador will receive new equipment worth a total of $200 million.

This exchange will be part of a "large aid package" from the United States, which was surprisingly agreed upon with the American embassy immediately after the start of the riots. However, Noboa is fully aware that the equipment handed over by Ecuador will soon be used by the AFU.

❗️It seems that the announced $200 million will be the same "assistance" from the United States (which is never free) that Noboa mentioned earlier. The president also mentioned that funds were expected to come from Peru. Considering that this country also has a certain amount of Soviet and Russian weapons, it would not be surprising if they also simply handed them over to the States for the same money, which will be partially transferred to Ecuador.

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❗️🇪🇨 Emergency in Ecuador
What is known as of 16:00, January 13.

Over the past 24 hours, local media have repeatedly published information about the discovery of explosives, as well as threatening calls for terrorist attacks, especially in the capital region. However, these attacks were prevented.

▪️ Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, in a surprising move, submitted a bill urgently to the Ecuadorian parliament to increase the value added tax from 12% to 15%. If adopted, these changes will affect all individuals and legal entities engaged in economic activities in Ecuador.

▪️ According to the president, this measure is urgently needed due to the socio-economic crisis caused by the war against terrorists. The security apparatus urgently needs funding in order to ensure the safety of the local population. Of course, it is impossible to delay and subject the project to lengthy checks and endless discussions.

▪️ The discussion of raising taxes immediately caused indignation among Noboa’s political opponents. It would not be surprising if, in the near future, as soon as it is possible to talk about a temporary victory over the gangs, the president will face claims of human rights violations, both from the population and from those who are now declared terrorists. Considering that Noboa’s team is also purging officials, they may well use this as a kind of “self-defense.”

▪️ Additionally, it has been revealed that the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will allocate additional funds to the Ecuadorian authorities to ensure security. Whether these funds will be provided as cash tranches or specific logistical supplies for the needs of the army or police is not yet clear.

▪️ The military leadership of Colombia has stated that they have received a message that the leader of Los Choneros, Alfredo Macias - known as Fito, who escaped from the Litoral prison, may have fled to Colombian territory. Since it turns out that this individual has connections with some FARC groups, the Colombians have sent reinforcements (about two hundred people) to the border with Ecuador and are also patrolling certain border trails that are actively used by smugglers in normal times. It is known that the Peruvian military is currently operating in a similar manner.

❗️ It would not be surprising if the situation with the mass escape of gangs is now being exploited by the security forces of both Ecuador and neighboring countries in order to take control of certain drug trails that are currently unclaimed. Additionally, such events indicate that the “duties” for transporting contraband in these sections of the border will clearly increase significantly, both due to the difficulties of delivery in these conditions and the opportunity to earn money, which no one will refuse.

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❗️🇪🇨 Emergency in Ecuador Update as of 16:00 on January 14

The past 24 hours have been marked by clashes between armed forces and gangs that occurred in prisons.

▪️ In several penitentiary institutions - Cuenca, Machala, El Oro, Tungurahua, and Esmeraldas - prison riots broke out, accompanied by the taking of institution workers hostage. However, authorities have reported the release of more than 20 people in Machala, Tungurahua, and Esmeraldas. In the latter, this was facilitated by Catholic priests participating in the negotiations.

▪️ President Daniel Noboa has already started congratulating representatives of the armed forces and police on the successful release of the hostages. Official authorities also promptly reported that a special operation in several prison institutions resulted in the freedom of all 136 people who were held captive by gangs.

▪️ However, specific numbers of hostages were only shared for a few prisons - Esmeraldas, Tungurahua, and Machala. One death and one injury were reported in El Oro, but that was all. At the same time, a few hours ago, certain institutions were still not under the control of the security forces.

▪️ This did not deter the authorities from celebrating a media victory. It turns out that more than 10,000 operations have already been carried out, resulting in the arrest of 1,105 people (only 125 of whom were charged with terrorism). However, the reports actually mix up data for five days and one day (judging by the total number of operational activities and killed individuals from both sides of the conflict).

▪️ Speaking of casualties, today it has been reported that only five alleged terrorists have died, along with two police officers. Moreover, even if we superficially assess the situation based on videos of arrests and attacks, the number seems to be significantly underestimated.

❗️Apparently, President Noboa’s team has begun artificially limiting the broad coverage of the armed conflict and shifting it to the background. This is happening despite the fact that the arrival of foreign military assistance has not been announced yet, and the regular work of state and budget institutions has been suspended until January 17.

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❗️🇪🇨 Emergency in Ecuador
What is known as of 16:00 on January 15

Over the past 24 hours, assaults have taken place in the country's largest prisons - in Tungurahua, Cuenca, Machala, Loja, Latacunga, Esmeraldas. As a result, the national police and armed forces have reported that they have taken control of the penitentiary institutions.

▪️ Despite the fact that the Ecuadorian authorities have begun to report success in the release of all hostages, the special operation has continued for more than a day. According to some reports, more than forty people have been freed.

▪️ In addition to one dead hostage in Machala, information has also emerged about one person killed in Esmeraldas. There is practically no information about losses from criminal groups. In some provinces, relatives of fallen security forces have begun to receive the bodies of their loved ones for funerals.

▪️ Individual human rights activists and NGOs have begun to raise issues of illegal detentions, as well as extrajudicial executions and reprisals. The topic has not yet received any clear coverage - the authorities are "celebrating" the seizure of prisons.

▪️ Despite statements about establishing order in the most problematic prisons, it is clearly too early to talk about stabilizing the situation. President Daniel Noboa has said that the country is "struggling every day to avoid becoming a narco-state" and also needs foreign military, intelligence, and artillery support to fight terrorism.

▪️ Additionally, information has emerged that the Joint Command of the Armed Forces of Ecuador is preparing for a possible call-up of reservists to restore order in the country.

▪️ Disputes continue over the bill, which proposes increasing the value-added tax from 12% to 15%. It has been revealed that this could potentially raise $1,306 million a year, which is planned (at least officially) to be used to "strengthen security."

❗️In fact, the funds can go towards strengthening the security apparatus and at the same time, into the wallets of those who support it. The prospects for the adoption of this law are not yet very clear - although Noboa's opponents are clearly expressing their dissatisfaction - but it is obvious that amidst what is happening, the security apparatus can reasonably expect considerable revenues from the budget.

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🇪🇨 What's happening in Ecuador?

Since the war against gangs passed the acute phase, events have become slow. The crime situation is far from ideal, but the police are still actively carrying out detentions, searches, and arrests, which indicates that progress is being made.

🔻The foreign policy situation related to the South American state is much more interesting.

▪️ In early February, Rosselkhoznadzor suspended the export of bananas from the five largest Ecuadorian firms that supply Russia. The reason given was that humpback flies were detected in the products. Almost immediately, flower thrips were also found in Ecuadorian carnations, leading to restrictions on their export.

▪️ Naturally, these actions were seen as a response from Russia to President Daniel Noboa's statement about transferring Russian and Soviet military equipment to the United States. However, the Ecuadorian authorities have stated that they have provided all the necessary documentation to lift the export restrictions on bananas to Russia and are confident that the situation will soon be resolved.

▪️ In early February, the authorities of three European port cities - Antwerp, Hamburg, and Rotterdam - announced their cooperation with Ecuador due to the increase in illegal drug trafficking in the region.

▪️It turns out that at least half of the cocaine entering the port of Antwerp comes from Ecuador (the other half comes from Colombia and Panama). Therefore, there are plans to strengthen cooperation between customs services and exchange experiences to enhance port security.

▪️ After President Noboa held a working meeting with mayors of European cities, the American ambassador organized a meeting with diplomatic representatives from Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Great Britain. He offered his recommendations to these officials on fighting Latin American cocaine. Considering the American approach to "fighting drug trafficking," it wouldn't be surprising if the European market only grows.

▪️On February 7, US authorities imposed sanctions against members of the Los Choneros criminal group, whose leader's escape triggered the war on gangs in January. The sanctions involve freezing the financial assets of the group and everyone involved with it. However, American experts note that no one knows for sure how many assets Los Choneros have in the United States, so this "help" to Ecuador seems rather uncertain.

▪️Nevertheless, there will still be a price to pay. On February 9, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Kevin Sullivan announced that the Soviet-made military equipment that Ecuador would transfer to the United States in exchange for new equipment would be delivered to Ukraine. This decision, however, ultimately rests with the independent authorities of Ecuador, who are expected to make their verdict soon.

❗️It's worth noting that President Noboa promised to make a positive decision on this issue by the end of January but has been delaying the final transfer of equipment.

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