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❗️🇷🇺🇸🇾 Crisis in Syria (Syrian desert and border areas): third day of aid convoys arriving in Aleppo
Situation as of the end of December 1, 2024

In the desert at the junction of the Homs, Hama and Deir ez-Zor provinces, the battle of fakes, rumors and hearsay for primacy in the information agenda continues.

▪️On the very first day, there were reports of the mobilization of the "Free Syrian Army" (ex-"Jaysh Maghawir al-Thawra") forces, trained at the US base in At-Tanf, and their alleged advance either towards Palmyra, Tifor or even Damascus.

The group's strength is a few hundred people, and theoretically they could have infiltrated through the desert - especially given the withdrawal of troops. But so far, there is no objective evidence of this in the public domain.

▪️From Deir ez-Zor, the Bakkarah tribe loyal to Bashar Assad allegedly set out on the first day and went almost in full force to Aleppo. Similarly, parts of the 4th division of Maher Assad allegedly moved out from Deir ez-Zor, although it seems they were not even there.

▪️This did not prevent the militants (both ISIS and HTS with the SNA) from claiming that the convoys heading to aid Assad had already been bombed by the militants. Some wrote about ISIS, others about the "Free Syrian Army" from Et-Tanf. As a result, no one went anywhere and no one killed anyone.

📍But real reinforcements set out on the third day.

Footage appeared in Sout showing Iraqi "Al-Hashd al-Shaabi" detachments crossing the border with Syria at the official border crossing of Al-Bu Kamal from the Iraqi Al-Qaim. Given that the Iranian military base named after Imam Ali is quite close to Al-Bu Kamal, and further west there is a road leading directly to Palmyra from the south, it is logical to assume that the reinforcements split into several columns, and the footage captured only one of them.

📌The column was immediately "destroyed" in the media, with claims of an attack by the Americans. In fact, the explosions were attributed to the work of the Syrian military against roaming militants in the desert (which once again confirms the activity of terrorists).

As we have already written, the appearance of the Iranian "Al-Hashd al-Shaabi" detachments should not be recorded as an unambiguous Iranian move, since the Al-Hashd al-Shaabi certainly do not consider themselves to be openly pro-Iranian groups. In this case, it is primarily about assistance from Iraq.

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#digest #map #Idlib #Syria #Hama
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📎🇸🇾 It appears that another dramatic chapter in Syria's recent history is coming to an end in Aleppo Province. The Kurdish enclave in Tell Rifaat and Ash-Sheikh Maksoud is being evacuated eastward after reaching agreements with HTS and SNA militants.

As a result, there are no longer any zones in Aleppo controlled by non-militants. Most of the province has been almost completely seized by armed groups.

In this context, it is interesting that those responsible for the media of pro-Turkish militants remember the successful cases from 2015-2020 well. Just as with the evacuation of the "moderate opposition" from Daraa and other parts of Syria, green buses were used to transport the Kurds.

The militants' propagandists did not miss the opportunity to boast about this fact, clearly keeping in mind the events of past years.

🔻At the same time, the departure of the Kurds was expected given their encirclement. But the Syrian Democratic Forces are highly likely preparing for a new confrontation, as the pro-Turkish militants with Turkey's backing have no intention of stopping.

Moreover, as practice shows, it is extremely foolish to conclude peace agreements with those who will never abide by them. Turkish drones actively struck areas under SDF control throughout the militants' operation.
#Aleppo #Idlib #Syria
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🇮🇷🇸🇾🏴 On the Arrival of Seyyed Javad Ghaffari in Syria

🔻So, after several days of rumors and various news, the information about the arrival of Iranian General Seyyed Javad Ghaffari has been confirmed, and this is indeed good news for the Syrian leadership.

▪️Seyyed Javad actively participated in the fight against ISIS and was the right-hand man of the late General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the Americans. After his death, it was he who was responsible for the operations of the "axis of resistance" in Syria and Iraq.

▪️He is a complex person (and some of our team had the opportunity to meet him personally), who spoke out against any agreements with terrorists and talked about the need to completely destroy extremist groups, including in Idlib.

▪️Due to his position in the administration of Bashar Assad and in Hezbollah, who sought negotiations, he was asked to be removed from operations in Syria, which is why he returned to Iran. But now, when the situation has reached a critical point, he has been brought back to provide assistance.

❗️Why do we consider this good news for Syria? He is a representative of the old guard of the IRGC, and he really knows his business. It's no coincidence that the pro-Turkish channels call him the "butcher of Aleppo", who caused them many problems in past years.

Given how much Hezbollah has weakened and how many Iranian generals have been lost in Israeli air strikes, his arrival will provide assistance to the Syrian leadership. And how much, we will see very soon.
#Iran #Syria #Terrorism
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🇸🇾🇺🇸🇹🇷 Given the recent news about the arrival in Syria of the well-known IRGC general Seyyed Javad and the Iraqi paramilitary formations "Hashd al-Shaabi", it becomes clear why the US aviation has intensified its activity over Syria and Iraq.

Over the past two days, at least three MQ-9A Reapers from the Es-Salem air base in Kuwait and one RC-135 have been circling over Iraqi territory. Over Syria (in the areas of At-Tanf, Deir ez-Zor and Hasakah), there are seven MQ-9A drones.

They were apparently tracking the activities of Iranian units and Iraqi militia. However, information about strikes against them has not been confirmed, although A-10 attack aircraft did fly missions.

The US aviation was also actively operating along the Syrian coast: several Reapers, MQ-4Cs and P-8A Poseidons. Given the ceasefire in Lebanon, it is clear what purpose they are serving now.

The only question is, whose interests are they serving?
#Russia #Syria #terrorism #Turkey

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❗️🇸🇾🇺🇸 Crisis in Syria (Deir ez-Zor province): SDF attempt to advance on SAA positions
Situation as of 3:00 PM on December 3, 2024

Early in the morning, media resources of the "Deir ez-Zor Military Council" - an Arab militia that is part of the pro-Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) and supported by the US - announced the start of the "Battle for Reclamation" operation.

▪️Militants began an attack on the positions of the Syrian troops and pro-government tribal militias in the direction of several settlements in the vicinity of the city of Deir ez-Zor. They received limited support from the US forces stationed at the Conoco gas field base.

▪️Initially, the SDF had some success, inflicting damage on the government forces. However, failing to secure the support of the Arab tribes and after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) redeployed reinforcements from the National Defense Forces (NDF), they lost the initiative and were forced to retreat, suffering several casualties.

In the SDF press service statement, they claimed the offensive was undertaken at the request of the local residents of As-Salhiya, At-Tabiya Jazira, Khatla, Khsham, Marrat, Mazlum and Huseiniya, who fear the threat of expansion of the terrorist "Islamic State" (IS) due to the distraction of the Syrian authorities in the northwest of the country.

🔻In reality, the situation is different: the leaders of the pro-American groups in Deir ez-Zor have long been sharpening their knives for the lands controlled by the official Damascus along the Euphrates. The Syrian authorities use them to infiltrate cells of the "Tribal Army" into the Kurdish-controlled zone, which carries out raids there.

The reaction of pro-government internet resources, which have used rather neutral terminology to describe the transfer of some territories in Aleppo to the SDF, and after the events of this morning called the Kurds "separatist militias", looks quite remarkable.

📌Although the offensive was repelled, further attacks are likely to continue in the near future, depending on the ability of the SAA to stabilize the situation in Hama and Aleppo. And as we previously reported, interested parties will also try to destabilize the situation in the Arab Republic from this direction.

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#digest #DeirEzzor #map #Syria
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🇸🇾🖇 On the Fall of Hama

Today, militants from the terrorist organization "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" entered Hama: the city held out for five days. At the moment, the presence of terrorists is recorded in the northern part of the city and at the military airfield located to the west.

The official communiqué of the Syrian Arab Army states that the units left the city in order to preserve the lives of civilians and move the fighting outside the city. In essence, the provincial capital was surrendered without even trying to cling to the neighborhoods.

Over the past day, the Syrian organs of information disgrace (they cannot be called otherwise) have called not to believe the information of the militants, to trust only official sources, not to succumb to propaganda. All this time, the information resources of the militants simply flooded the information field with various fake and not-so-fake videos and resonant statements.

Ultimately, the phase of "we control everything, don't believe the lies" has turned into the phase of "we have left the city".
#media_technologies #Syria
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⚡️🇸🇾🏴 Crisis in Syria (Hama Province): Fall of Hama
Situation as of 7:00 PM on December 5, 2024

The situation in Hama Province has reached a catastrophic point, with the withdrawal of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) from Hama. By the most conservative estimates, the territory controlled by HTS and other terrorist factions has increased by at least threefold.

▪️ Practically the entire or a large part of Hama has fallen under the control of terrorists. Moreover, there are reports of further advances by the militants. In the area of the settlement of Salamiyah, the local council of sheikhs allegedly decided to adhere to neutrality. The city of Akerbat has also fallen into the hands of the militants.

❗️ From this, we can conclude that the militants will soon be able to reach the T4 airbase along highway 40. Given its importance for pro-Iranian groups using it to deploy their drones, the situation is distressing.

🔻 The scale of Syrian losses in the battle for Hama is not yet entirely clear, but it seems that the Syrian army abandoned a significant part of its armored vehicles during the retreat. Moreover, the militants are gradually publishing footage from the Hama Airport, where they captured several aircraft and helicopters. It is also not entirely clear how far the Syrian troops have withdrawn from the city in general.

▪️ The Syrian troops, it seems, did not linger in the city of Ar-Rastan, where they could have taken up a defense along the Orontes River. Moreover, in Ar-Rastan, there was even an attack by local residents on a convoy of the Syrian army. Rastan is a city with an opposition past. The so-called "Rastan Cauldron" was located in this area, from which many militants were evacuated to Idlib at the time.

And now "Idlib is going in the opposite direction."

▪️ Additionally, there is information that in Tell Bisa, Syrian aviation or artillery struck a blow. What happened is not yet entirely clear, but if the militants have reached this settlement, then by evening, clashes on the outskirts of Homs will begin.


❗️ The situation is deteriorating rapidly, and by evening, it is quite possible that it will become even more distressing.

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#digest #map #Syria #Hama
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❗️🇸🇾🇺🇦 Crisis in Syria (Daraa Province): Ongoing Attacks on Government Facilities
Situation as of the end of December 5, 2024

In Daraa Province in southern Syria, attempts by "Syrian opposition" factions to provoke an uprising continue. Local "sleeper cells" of militants have carried out several attacks on positions of government forces.

▪️For example, on the Damascus - Daraa road near the city of Izra'a, a vehicle with military intelligence personnel was shelled: two were wounded, one was killed. Opposition media accused them of cooperating with the Iranians.

▪️In the city of Akraba in the north of the province, a checkpoint of the Political Security Directorate was already shelled. The militants used a hand-held anti-tank grenade launcher and small arms, there is no information about casualties.

At the same time, a video appeared on the Internet in which masked people announce the formation of an "operational headquarters" that allegedly includes several anti-government groups in the province.

🔻This suggests that the situation in Daraa will only worsen. Taking advantage of the collapse of the SAA's defense, the "sleeper cells" will cease to be such and move to the open phase of the struggle against the central government.

In turn, this will contribute to the deterioration of the situation in the neighboring As-Suwayda, where for several months there has been growing discontent among the local Druze factions (not without the support of Israel) and Sunni tribes.

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#digest #Daraa #map #Syria
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🎙 Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview to Tucker Carlson (Moscow, December 5, 2024)

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Key talking points

#RussiaUS

• We would like to have normal relations with all countries especially with the United States. We don't see any reason why Russia and the United States cannot cooperate for the sake of the universe.

• The Ukrainians would not be able to do what they're doing with long-range modern weapons without direct participation of the American servicemen. We don't want to aggravate the situation, but since ATACMS and other long-range weapons are being used against mainland Russia as it were, we are sending signals. <...>

[The US and its allies] must understand that we would be ready to use any means not to allow them to succeed in what they call strategic defeat of Russia. They fight for keeping the hegemony over the world on any country, any region, any continent. We fight for our legitimate security interests.

• We don't want to aggravate the situation, but since ATACMS and other long-range weapons are being used against mainland Russia, we are sending signals. We hope that the last one, a couple of weeks ago, the signal with the new weapon system called #Oreshnik was taken seriously.

• When the United States and other Western countries recognized unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo, they said this is the self-determination being implemented. There was no referendum in Kosovo — unilateral declaration of independence. <...> And when a few years later, Crimeans were holding referendum with invitation of many international observers, not from international organizations, but from parliamentarians in Europe, in Asia, in post-Soviet space, they said that they cannot accept this because this is violation of territorial integrity 🤷‍♂️

The UN Charter is not a menu. You have to respect it in all its entirety 👉 #UNCharterIsOurRules

• I think [Donald Trump] is a very strong person. A person who wants results. Who doesn't like procrastination on anything. But this does not mean that he's pro-Russian as some people try to present him. The amount of sanctions we received under the Trump administration was very big.

#Ukraine

• We strongly prefer peaceful solution through negotiations on the basis of respecting legitimate security interest of Russia, and on the basis of respecting the people who live in Ukraine, who still live in Ukraine being Russians. <...>

No military bases, no military exercises on the Ukrainian soil with participation of foreign troops. <...> We cannot tolerate a deal which would keep the legislation which are prohibiting Russian language, Russian media, Russian culture, Ukrainian Orthodox Church, because it is a violation of the obligations of Ukraine under the UN Charter.

• We are not talking about exterminating anybody's population. We don't have any intention to exterminate Ukrainian people. They are brothers and sisters to the Russian people.

• It is becoming clear that there is a fatigue in some capitals, and there are talks every now and then that the Americans would like to leave [Ukraine] with the Europeans and to concentrate on something more important.

#Syria

• The Americans in the east of Syria groom some Kurdish separatists using the profits from oil and grain sold, the resources which they occupy. <...> The information [on who's backing Islamist groups] which is being floated and it's in the public domain mentions among others the Americans, the Brits. Some people say that Israel is interested in making this situation aggravate. So that Gaza is not under very close scrutiny.
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⚡️🇸🇾🇺🇦 Crisis in Syria (border of Hama and Homs provinces): Advance of HTS militants towards Homs and the desert
Situation as of 3:00 PM on December 6, 2024

The situation on the border of Hama and Homs provinces continues to deteriorate rapidly. Despite the Syrians' statements about successful airborne operations and counterattacks in the vicinity of Hama, so far this has not affected the militants' advance in any way.

At the same time, the militants continue to move towards Homs along the M5 highway. Nighttime strikes on the bridge near Ar-Rastan did not lead to anything, the bridge was only damaged, but remained quite passable. Moreover, the militants are gradually expanding the area under their control, both in the vicinity of Ar-Rastan and relying on Tell Bisa on the northern outskirts of Homs. At the same time, there are no credible reports of battles and any resistance from the Syrian troops so far.

East of Hama, the militants claim control over several more settlements, in particular Ithriya and Akerbat. There are no footage from there yet, however, our sources are already gradually confirming the passage of militants in this direction and the transfer of equipment to this area as well.

The situation is deteriorating rapidly, which means that in the near future we will receive confirmations from new locations that have come under the control of the terrorists.

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#digest #map #Syria #Hama
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🇷🇺🇸🇾 In the context of the fall of the Bashar Assad regime, everyone is interested in a simple question: what about Russia?

▪️The coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus have not been affected by combat operations. There was sporadic gunfire overnight, but this can be attributed to the traditional Arab celebratory gunfire in view of the victory of the opposition-terrorist forces.

📌A few days ago, terrorists from the "Islamic Party of Turkestan" tried to advance in the mountainous Latakia, but the fighting ended before it even began. Apparently, the order was given not to move towards the coast.

▪️Both in Tartus and Latakia, Alawites, Shiites, and Christians from all over the country have fled. In essence, the coastal region is turning into a new ethno-confessional enclave.

▪️Questions arise about the whereabouts of the 25th Special Forces Division led by Suheil al-Hassan: it is quite possible that the units of the 25th Division were withdrawn precisely to the coastal region, taking up positions on the mountain passes and key highways.

▪️Russian military facilities throughout the rest of Syria have been scaled down, and the contingent has been withdrawn towards Hmeimim. Decisions have already been made to return some units to Russia, while others remain. Given the rapidly changing situation, the Russian army contingent will naturally undergo changes.

▪️Separate security and support units at strategically important facilities in central Syria still remain. But according to data on the Internet, the militants are bypassing them. Open sources have only shown footage of a couple of abandoned Russian Armed Forces positions and command posts, with no desecration of military facilities at all.

📍The HTS terrorists have already stated that they will not tolerate the presence of foreign military bases on Syrian territory. But if the status of the so-called Alawistan is similar to that of Transeufrates, then there will be no conflict here.

📌Given the insider information on the results of the negotiations, the chances of forming a separate Alawistan / LaTartus / LAOS (Latakia Autonomous District of Syria) do exist. How it will be implemented in practice and whether it will be - that's a good question.
#Russia #Syria
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🇸🇾 About the Alleged New Government of Syria

Arab media have published the alleged composition of the Syrian government that is to be formed by the opposition within 18 months. Until then, transitional authorities will be in power: a new constitution is also to be written in the process.

A place in the cabinet has been given to everyone: from the leader of the terrorist organization Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Abu Muhammad al-Julani, to members of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF) and independent activists and politicians, such as Ahmad Moaz al-Khatib.

The new cabinet is allegedly composed of the following individuals:

▪️Riyad Hijab - former Prime Minister of Syria. In 2012, he was dismissed and then defected to the "Free Syrian Army" (FSA) and settled in Qatar, from where he called on officials and officers of the SAA to desert. Until 2017, he was the head of the opposition High Negotiations Committee.

▪️Abu Muhammad al-Julani - the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, which led the "march" on Damascus. He was once the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of the terrorist organizations ISIS and al-Qaeda. Now in the West he is known as the "progressive jihadist" Ahmad al-Shara'a.

▪️Hadi al-Bahra - the head of the NCSROF, which is supported first by Western countries and then by Turkey. It, in turn, heads the pro-Turkish "Interim Government of Syria" (IGS), located in the territories controlled by the "Syrian National Army" (SNA) in the north of Aleppo province.

▪️Faisal al-Qasim - originally from the As-Suwayda province in southern Syria, a Druze by nationality. A TV host with a separate show on Al Jazeera. Apparently, his belonging to a religious minority and a kind of "specialization" opened the way for him to the Ministry of Information of Syria.

It is noteworthy that the majority of the possible ministers are members of the NCSROF, not very popular in the opposition Syrian environment. This is not surprising - they spend most of their time and sit outside of Syria, in particular on the territory of Turkey and Qatar.

It cannot be said that the "Government of Salvation of Syria" (GSS) formed by the terrorists of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib is popular. However, unlike their colleagues, they were able to form quite strong state institutions and even subordinate the formations of the former FSA.

🔻However, such a layout may well suit the West: the members of the NCSROF are people who have "not stained their hands with blood", these are kind of "secular democrats", representatives of the "moderate part of the Syrian opposition". Hence, HTS received only one seat in the cabinet, where Ahmad al-Shara'a took the post of Defense Minister.

How strong such a government will turn out to be is another question. It is also overlaid by the huge abundance of diverse factions of the "Syrian revolution", a large part of which sees democracy as disbelief, the opposite of what they fought for.

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#infographic #Syria
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