⚔️ The redistribution of power and influence in the world, along with the shifting power dynamics among major nations, has become the catalyst for extremely acute differences between them.

As these differences intensify, they engulf ideology, the economy, and scientific-technical and humanitarian ties. Factors that used to prevent major powers from escalation in the past are weakening. These countries are now facing a real threat of large-scale non-nuclear conflicts against comparable adversaries, for the first time since the 1960s.

The prevailing form of conflict between great powers will be proxy wars of a new type, namely, large conflicts in which a major nuclear power grants its client access to its information capabilities (satellite reconnaissance and targeting, communication infrastructure, etc.), as well as military technology and expertise, and, if necessary, carries out limited direct intervention in the conflict where it will not provoke nuclear escalation.

However, the threat of a direct military clash between great powers and nuclear war will persist and, perhaps, become even more acute than during the Cold War.

The key goal of diplomacy in this new world will be to develop a toolkit that will make it possible to endure decades of turbulence without nuclear bombardment. This can only be achieved within the framework of rigorous foreign policy realism, write the authors of a new Valdai Report, titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies.”

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/warfare-in-a-new-epoch-the-return-of-big-armies/

🎥 The presentation of the report took place on October 18. Watch the video recording on our website.

#ModernDiplomacy #valdai_report #ProxyWar #warfare #WorldOrder

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UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will present its new report titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies.”

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239144

#ModernDiplomacy #valdai_report #ProxyWar #warfare #WorldOrder

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⚔️ Brave Old World: Wars and Historical Normality Without Rose-Coloured Spectacles

On October 18, the Valdai Club presented a report, titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies”. 

💬 The moderator was Andrey Sushentsov, programme director of the Club. He emphasised that the conflict in Ukraine refutes a concept that had prevailed for a long time, according to which modern warfare is a war with small forces, adding that it demonstrates the relevance of large military units. “War remains the same phenomenon that we have observed for centuries. The dominant view in recent years was an illusion,” he concluded.

💬 Co-author of the report Vasily Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, noted that the events in Ukraine illustrate that conflicts involving states are becoming larger in scale, pursuing more decisive goals and demonstrating the readiness of all players to make sacrifices that for a long time were considered impossible. This is due to the changing balance of power in the world. External crises are accompanied by internal ones. As a result, conflicts are escalating around the world. According to him, the big countries will have to return to the basics of military-economic planning that were generally accepted in the second half of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries.

💬 Lieutenant general (ret.) Evgeniy Buzhinsky, Chairman of the PIR Center Council, pointed out that when in the 2000s Russia suspended the CFE Treaty due to its inconsistency with modern realities, and the process of understanding the new situation began, the expert community spoke not about the scale and duration of conflicts, but about new categories of weapons. Tank battles and artillery duels in Europe seemed unthinkable. “The Ukrainian conflict has shown: the tanks are back, the artillery is back,” he said. According to Buzhinsky, in the next wars, whatever they may be, all current means of armed struggle will remain, but on a qualitatively new level.

💬 Gregory Simons, an independent expert from Sweden, drew parallels between the conflict in Ukraine and the Iran-Iraq war. In his opinion, Iraq was not a subject, but an object in the war and was forced to rely entirely on American support. Similarly, Ukraine is now not a subject, but an object against the backdrop of US attempts to block the movement towards a multipolar world. American politicians, ignoring the media rhetoric about moral confrontation, quite frankly say that they perceive this conflict as a means to wear Russia down.

💬 Dmitry Stefanovich @stratdela, a researcher at the Centre for International Security at IMEMO RAS, noted that the role of external support is important both in the current conflicts and in future conflicts. If this support is not stopped in one way or another, then the conflict can become extremely long-lasting. He also pointed to the high level of transparency in modern conflicts and the enormous amount of available data. However, how much this data helps one get the real picture is not clear: the data is too easy to manipulate. It is even difficult to say how to measure the potentials of the parties at war. In addition, Stefanovich raised the possibility of long-term support for the defence industry and big armies.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/brave-old-world-wars-and-historical-normality-without-rose-coloured-spectacles/

#ModernDiplomacy #valdai_report #ProxyWar #warfare #WorldOrder

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