🧨 It can be expected that due to US neglect of the arms embargo, which has resulted in arms and ammunition being transferred to the Ukrainian armed forces and possibly ending up in the Middle East, the Yemeni UNSC sanctions regime (which expires on November 15, 2023), as well as the mandate of the Group of Experts (ends on December 15, 2023) will not be extended, writes independent analyst Vitaly Sovin.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/us-double-standards-in-enforcing-the-un-security-c/

#EconomicStatecraft #UnitedStates #arms #Yemen

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⏰ TODAY at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3) the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea.

❓How will the escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea affect global trade?
❓Does it threaten regional security?
❓What was the role of Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands in preparing the airstrikes?
❓How can forces supporting the Houthis respond to attacks by the United States and Britain?
❓How can Russia influence the resolution of the crisis?

Participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the open sessions will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Yemen #RedSea #MiddleEast #Houthi

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UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3) the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239160

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Yemen #RedSea #MiddleEast #Houthi

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⚔️🌍 'Iranian Axis' or 'Axis of Resistance'?

On January 26, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the escalation in Yemen and the Red Sea. Moderator Andrey Sushentsov invited participants to discuss possible developments in the region, the potential role of Russia, and the conditions for the re-stabilisation of regional security.

💬 Andrey Baklanov, Deputy Chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats, Head of the Middle East and North African Studies Section at the Higher School of Economics, noted that the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East is likely to be protracted, with low- or medium-intensity hostilities. In his opinion, none of the participants, no matter what statements they make and no matter what goals they officially declare, wants a big military conflict in the Red Sea, which does not negate other methods of confrontation - from rhetoric to bombing. Trade will continue, but logistics costs will rise. Egypt is likely to suffer the most from this. Speaking about the diplomatic dimension of what is happening, Baklanov pointed out that the United States rejects proposals to involve Russian diplomats in the settlement process in the format of a Quartet of international mediators or in any other format.

💬 Kobi Michael, Senior Research Fellow at the National Security Institute in Tel Aviv and Senior Research Fellow at the Misgav Institute, provided an Israeli perspective on what is happening. He called for the conflict with the Houthis not to be separated from the overall picture of a regional war with global consequences. The origins, in his opinion, are various “proxies” of Iran. He sees what is happening in the Middle East as the result of the activities of a certain “Iranian axis”, supported by Russia and China, which are striving to create a new world order and resist American hegemony. The Middle East is important to America's adversaries, because undermining US interests in this region affects the situation in other regions. The very fact that the Houthis, with the support of Iran, were able to influence one of the most important transport routes in the world presents a challenge to the United States and some of its key allies.

💬 Kayhan Barzegar, Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the Science and Research Branch of the Islamic Azad University in Tehran, rejected the existence of a connection between Hamas, Iran and Yemen. The Houthis and Hamas, he said, constitute a kind of “axis of resistance” whose activities are directed against external interference in the affairs of the region. Barzegar argues that they are not Iranian “proxies”, but independent actors who, despite having certain ties to Iran, act in accordance with their own logic. He considers the escalation in the Red Sea a direct consequence of the war in the Gaza Strip, which radicalized the Arab world, and the long-term neglect of the Palestinian issue by the world community. The political scientist emphasized that the regional conflict cannot be resolved through war and that it is necessary to deal with the roots of the situation. An agreement on a truce and a ceasefire are needed, he pointed out.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/iranian-axis-or-axis-of-resistance/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Yemen #RedSea #MiddleEast #Houthi

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🌊 The resumption of the Arab-Israeli conflict on October 7, 2023 represented a new turning point in the impact of technological capabilities on the interdiction of commercial maritime traffic, which happened despite a high-profile international military coalition.

This new type of blockade, which brought together the tactical capabilities of state and non-state actors, began on November 19 after the Yemeni army insisted that the Israeli authorities cease fire in Gaza. It began with a Hollywood-style seizure of the British vessel Galaxy Leader on the high seas, thanks to a combined Yemeni naval and helicopter force.

This is not the first time that Houthi military actions have had a global geopolitical impact. Although rural in origin, this movement has demonstrated a global understanding of economic and strategic issues, striking Saudi oil installations throughout the war, pitting them against the coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

This reached a climax in 2019 with the strategic bombing of the Khurais and Abqaiq oil sites, which account for 7% of the world’s crude oil production.

On February 25, the Israeli press reported that four undersea communications cables between Saudi Arabia and Djibouti had been put out of commission by alleged Houthi attacks.

According to the Israeli newspaper Globes, this sabotage has caused serious disruption to communications between Europe and Asia, particularly the Gulf States and India.

This sabotage proves two things: firstly, that submarine attacks are within the reach of small armies with no navy. Secondly, that Western armies are completely incapable of waging a war underwater to prevent, detect and counter this threat, writes Akram Kharief.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/maritime-interdiction-a-new-global-geopolitical/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Yemen #Houthi #RedSea

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