๐ธ๐ช๐ซ๐ฎ๐น๐ท The process of Sweden and Finland acceding to NATO membership is not over yet. But recent developments show that a delay is inevitable due to tense relations between Turkey and Sweden.
28 member states of NATO, out of 30, have already approved Sweden and Finlandโs accession to the alliance. After Hungaryโs ratification, there is a risk that Turkey would be labelled as the sole gatekeeper. Still, it is not likely for Turkey to hurry up ratification. In May, there will be parliamentary and presidential elections, and the issue has already become a feature of domestic politics in Turkey.
Looking at the current equation, there are three scenarios before us:
1๏ธโฃ First, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO before the elections. Such a scenario would necessitate a shift in the position of Stockholm, which would include the prevention of PKK protests, measures being taken against provocative demonstrations, and the extradition of terrorism suspects to Turkey.
2๏ธโฃ Second, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Finland to NATO and leave Sweden in the waiting room. This possibility has been articulated by Turkish officials, including President Erdoฤan himself. Nevertheless, the Finnish officials have declared that they would like to join the alliance together with Sweden. Still, any change in the position of Finland may push this scenario forward. Ratifying Finlandโs membership to NATO can help the AK Party explain itself more easily to the alliance rather than being portrayed as a gatekeeper.
3๏ธโฃ The third scenario is leaving the ratification to a date after the elections in May. In this case, there is a risk that Finland and Sweden may not participate in the summit in Vilnius as full members.
The AK Party has a conservative constituency and the issue has already become a matter of defending the dignity of Islam and Turkey. Thus, the Turkish president will use any shift in the position of Stockholm as leverage in the elections, while the stubbornness of Sweden legitimises Turkeyโs position to blockade the expansion.
Looking at this picture, the dynamics of domestic politics in Turkey and Sweden have shaped the future of the North Atlantic Alliance, writes Hasan Selim รzertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkey-s-relations-with-sweden-the-puzzle-of-nato/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NATO #Sweden #Finland
@valdai_club
28 member states of NATO, out of 30, have already approved Sweden and Finlandโs accession to the alliance. After Hungaryโs ratification, there is a risk that Turkey would be labelled as the sole gatekeeper. Still, it is not likely for Turkey to hurry up ratification. In May, there will be parliamentary and presidential elections, and the issue has already become a feature of domestic politics in Turkey.
Looking at the current equation, there are three scenarios before us:
1๏ธโฃ First, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO before the elections. Such a scenario would necessitate a shift in the position of Stockholm, which would include the prevention of PKK protests, measures being taken against provocative demonstrations, and the extradition of terrorism suspects to Turkey.
2๏ธโฃ Second, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Finland to NATO and leave Sweden in the waiting room. This possibility has been articulated by Turkish officials, including President Erdoฤan himself. Nevertheless, the Finnish officials have declared that they would like to join the alliance together with Sweden. Still, any change in the position of Finland may push this scenario forward. Ratifying Finlandโs membership to NATO can help the AK Party explain itself more easily to the alliance rather than being portrayed as a gatekeeper.
3๏ธโฃ The third scenario is leaving the ratification to a date after the elections in May. In this case, there is a risk that Finland and Sweden may not participate in the summit in Vilnius as full members.
The AK Party has a conservative constituency and the issue has already become a matter of defending the dignity of Islam and Turkey. Thus, the Turkish president will use any shift in the position of Stockholm as leverage in the elections, while the stubbornness of Sweden legitimises Turkeyโs position to blockade the expansion.
Looking at this picture, the dynamics of domestic politics in Turkey and Sweden have shaped the future of the North Atlantic Alliance, writes Hasan Selim รzertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkey-s-relations-with-sweden-the-puzzle-of-nato/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NATO #Sweden #Finland
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Turkeyโs Relations with Sweden: The Puzzle of NATOโs Expansion
The process of Sweden and Finland acceding to NATO membership is not over yet. But recent developments show that a delay is inevitable due to tense relations between Turkey and Sweden, writes Hasan Selim รzertem, Ankara-based political analyst.