🌏 Managing major power competition is nothing new for member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Despite the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on ASEAN’s agenda, concern on US-China tensions still weighed heavy in its discussions.
Should both major powers decide that they need to secure their influence in ASEAN or its member states at all costs, the regional organisation is set for a rocky foreseeable future, even the risk of a permanent fracture.
Would ASEAN’s external partners want to engage with a regional organisation that is deemed a mere tool for major powers? For ASEAN, the uncomfortable question it now has to ask itself is that while it might be in the driver’s seat, is it the owner of the vehicle, or a mere chauffeur?
👉 Thomas Daniel, speaker of the second session of the 12th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, writes about US-China tensions and the future of ASEAN. The 12th Asian Conference of the Valdai Club “Russia and Asia in a Changing World Order” will take place on December 7-8, 2021, at the Club’s conference hall, at Tsvetnoy Boulevard 16/1, Moscow, Russia.
🔗 US-China Tensions and the Future of ASEAN
#ASEAN #IndoPacific #Asia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Despite the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on ASEAN’s agenda, concern on US-China tensions still weighed heavy in its discussions.
Should both major powers decide that they need to secure their influence in ASEAN or its member states at all costs, the regional organisation is set for a rocky foreseeable future, even the risk of a permanent fracture.
Would ASEAN’s external partners want to engage with a regional organisation that is deemed a mere tool for major powers? For ASEAN, the uncomfortable question it now has to ask itself is that while it might be in the driver’s seat, is it the owner of the vehicle, or a mere chauffeur?
👉 Thomas Daniel, speaker of the second session of the 12th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, writes about US-China tensions and the future of ASEAN. The 12th Asian Conference of the Valdai Club “Russia and Asia in a Changing World Order” will take place on December 7-8, 2021, at the Club’s conference hall, at Tsvetnoy Boulevard 16/1, Moscow, Russia.
🔗 US-China Tensions and the Future of ASEAN
#ASEAN #IndoPacific #Asia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
US-China Tensions and the Future of ASEAN
While some in Southeast Asia appreciated the more robust approach against China undertaken by the Trump administration, many others were concerned, seeing it as too confrontational, executed crassly without any duty of care toward, or understanding of, the…
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🎥 According to Thomas Daniel, Senior Analyst in the Foreign Policy & Security Studies programme at the Institute for Strategic & International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia, there is a bit of nervousness among the ASEAN countries because of tensions between the USA and China. Smaller countries try to keep neutraluty toward major powers.
#AsianValdai #ASEAN #IndoPacific
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
#AsianValdai #ASEAN #IndoPacific
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
🌏 The Indo-Pacific is likely to remain the world-most important geopolitical region in the years to come.
The Ukraine conflict should not mislead public opinion and policy-makers: not Europe, but the Indo-Pacific is the main battlefield of the great power competition. Its geo-relevance is destined to increase significantly due to the ever-growing tensions between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States.
The US is forced to focus on the Indo-Pacific because the main menace to its hegemony is represented by the PRC, whose demography, economy, technological progress, political agenda and long-term plans make it the most-challenging rising hegemonic power of the current era.
The US inherited from the British the control over the so-called choke points, nay the pillars of globalisation, and is trying to restore the special partnership with the English-speaking world so as to better economically, politically and militarly encircle the PRC.
The QUAD and the AUKUS work in the same direction: the ambition to build an English-speaking grand coalition externally backed by likeminded regional powers, notably Japan, South Korea and India, which might be further enlarged to Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.
The Chinese moves – and claims – on the South China Sea might be skillfully used by the US to encourage a useful escalation.
The Ukraine conflict will act as a catalyst of a greater engagement in the region, with an increased support to Japan’s historical rearmament and with increased sales of weaponry and military hardware to Taiwan, South Korea and other American-friendly countries located near the PRC’s near abroad, writes Valdai Club expert Emanuel Pietrobon.
#EconomicStatecraft #IndoPacific
@valdai_club
The Ukraine conflict should not mislead public opinion and policy-makers: not Europe, but the Indo-Pacific is the main battlefield of the great power competition. Its geo-relevance is destined to increase significantly due to the ever-growing tensions between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States.
The US is forced to focus on the Indo-Pacific because the main menace to its hegemony is represented by the PRC, whose demography, economy, technological progress, political agenda and long-term plans make it the most-challenging rising hegemonic power of the current era.
The US inherited from the British the control over the so-called choke points, nay the pillars of globalisation, and is trying to restore the special partnership with the English-speaking world so as to better economically, politically and militarly encircle the PRC.
The QUAD and the AUKUS work in the same direction: the ambition to build an English-speaking grand coalition externally backed by likeminded regional powers, notably Japan, South Korea and India, which might be further enlarged to Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.
The Chinese moves – and claims – on the South China Sea might be skillfully used by the US to encourage a useful escalation.
The Ukraine conflict will act as a catalyst of a greater engagement in the region, with an increased support to Japan’s historical rearmament and with increased sales of weaponry and military hardware to Taiwan, South Korea and other American-friendly countries located near the PRC’s near abroad, writes Valdai Club expert Emanuel Pietrobon.
#EconomicStatecraft #IndoPacific
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
The Indo-Pacific in the Wake of the Ukraine Conflict: From China’s Continuing Rise to the Anglosphere’s Return
The Ukraine conflict will act as a catalyst of a greater engagement in the region, with an increased support to Japan’s historical rearmament and with increased sales of weaponry and military hardware to Taiwan, South Korea and other American-friendly countries…
🚛🌏 Logistics and Finance in a Changing World: Challenges and Solutions for Russia and Asia
On Wednesday, December 14, the 13th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club ended in St. Petersburg.
On the final day of the conference, one open session was held, dedicated to the changes in the transport, logistics and financial sectors. Despite the fact that the session was devoted to specialised issues, the speakers could not but touch on the topic of the changing world order.
💬 Nguyen Hung Son, Vice President for Research at the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, presented his country’s perspective on the ongoing changes. According to him, the world order that existed after the end of the Cold War was generally beneficial to the countries of Southeast Asia, which are relatively weak players on the world stage. Vietnam — and ASEAN as a whole — are not in favour of the demolition of the existing world order, but for an evolutionary path of development, anyway they recognise the emergence of new forces and factors. Speaking about relations with Russia, Nguyen noted that Vietnam is interested in its presence in the Indo-Pacific (emphasising that Hanoi shares this concept).
💬 Meanwhile, Russia, which is under a flurry of sanctions, is demonstrating resilience, including in the transport and logistics sector. Aleksey Bezborodov, managing partner of Infra Projects, said that despite the difficulties, no company went bankrupt in transport and logistics in Russia. The volume of trade has remained the same, but the direction has changed. The bulk of trade flows moved to the Far East, primarily the Vostochny port.
💬 Raza Muhammad, President of the Islamabad Institute for Policy Studies, spoke about Asia’s role in sustaining global growth as the world economy rebuilds. According to him, natural resources, human capital, geographic opportunities and geopolitical importance in world affairs have provided Asia with a unique advantage over other continents. New financial mechanisms are emerging in Asia, he stressed. The currencies of Asian countries are strengthening their positions, competing with the US dollar — and this is in the interests of Russia, which is steadily pursuing a policy of de-dollarisation of foreign trade.
💬 Alexander Korolev, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics, spoke about the challenges that arise in the financial sector. He singled out two groups of risks for Russia’s financial cohesion: the physical impossibility of conducting transactions in dollars and euros and the fear of partners falling under secondary sanctions (the EU, which was previously sceptical of this practice, adopted it in 2022).
https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/logistics-and-finance-in-a-changing-world-challenges-and-solutions-for-russia-and-asia/
#ASIANVALDAI #Asia #ASEAN #IndoPacific
@valdai_club
On Wednesday, December 14, the 13th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club ended in St. Petersburg.
On the final day of the conference, one open session was held, dedicated to the changes in the transport, logistics and financial sectors. Despite the fact that the session was devoted to specialised issues, the speakers could not but touch on the topic of the changing world order.
💬 Nguyen Hung Son, Vice President for Research at the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, presented his country’s perspective on the ongoing changes. According to him, the world order that existed after the end of the Cold War was generally beneficial to the countries of Southeast Asia, which are relatively weak players on the world stage. Vietnam — and ASEAN as a whole — are not in favour of the demolition of the existing world order, but for an evolutionary path of development, anyway they recognise the emergence of new forces and factors. Speaking about relations with Russia, Nguyen noted that Vietnam is interested in its presence in the Indo-Pacific (emphasising that Hanoi shares this concept).
💬 Meanwhile, Russia, which is under a flurry of sanctions, is demonstrating resilience, including in the transport and logistics sector. Aleksey Bezborodov, managing partner of Infra Projects, said that despite the difficulties, no company went bankrupt in transport and logistics in Russia. The volume of trade has remained the same, but the direction has changed. The bulk of trade flows moved to the Far East, primarily the Vostochny port.
💬 Raza Muhammad, President of the Islamabad Institute for Policy Studies, spoke about Asia’s role in sustaining global growth as the world economy rebuilds. According to him, natural resources, human capital, geographic opportunities and geopolitical importance in world affairs have provided Asia with a unique advantage over other continents. New financial mechanisms are emerging in Asia, he stressed. The currencies of Asian countries are strengthening their positions, competing with the US dollar — and this is in the interests of Russia, which is steadily pursuing a policy of de-dollarisation of foreign trade.
💬 Alexander Korolev, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics, spoke about the challenges that arise in the financial sector. He singled out two groups of risks for Russia’s financial cohesion: the physical impossibility of conducting transactions in dollars and euros and the fear of partners falling under secondary sanctions (the EU, which was previously sceptical of this practice, adopted it in 2022).
https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/logistics-and-finance-in-a-changing-world-challenges-and-solutions-for-russia-and-asia/
#ASIANVALDAI #Asia #ASEAN #IndoPacific
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Logistics and Finance in a Changing World: Challenges and Solutions for Russia and Asia
On Wednesday, December 14, the 13th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club ended in St. Petersburg. On the final day of the conference, one open session was held, dedicated to the changes in the transport, logistics and financial sectors.
🌏 Indo-Pacific has emerged as an important part of the geopolitical landscape amidst an emerging world order.
It has attracted support from some major players, and has cemented its position through sustained high-level interactions that indicate a commonality of interests in specific areas.
The eventual success of the Indo-Pacific thus depends on a variety of factors including the continued commitment of the US to remain engaged through cooperative mechanisms with allies and partners as well as Chinese actions in the region — which will both impact how regional middle and smaller powers frame their own policies, writes Valdai Club expert Nivedita Kapoor.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/redefining-a-region-asia-pacific-or-indo-pacific/
📍 The article represents one of the opinions within the framework of the discussion among the experts of the Valdai Club on the topic “Asia-Pacific Region or Indo-Pacific Region?”.
#Asia_and_Eurasia #IndoPacific
@valdai_club
It has attracted support from some major players, and has cemented its position through sustained high-level interactions that indicate a commonality of interests in specific areas.
The eventual success of the Indo-Pacific thus depends on a variety of factors including the continued commitment of the US to remain engaged through cooperative mechanisms with allies and partners as well as Chinese actions in the region — which will both impact how regional middle and smaller powers frame their own policies, writes Valdai Club expert Nivedita Kapoor.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/redefining-a-region-asia-pacific-or-indo-pacific/
📍 The article represents one of the opinions within the framework of the discussion among the experts of the Valdai Club on the topic “Asia-Pacific Region or Indo-Pacific Region?”.
#Asia_and_Eurasia #IndoPacific
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Redefining a Region: Asia-Pacific or Indo-Pacific
Indo-Pacific is still is a work in progress but given its salience for the stakeholders, it is unlikely to disappear in the near future. It has emerged as an important part of the geopolitical landscape amidst an emerging world order, has attracted support…
🇺🇸🇯🇵🇰🇷 The first ever trilateral summit of the three states was held on August 18th in the residence of the current US president in Camp David, became a real breakthrough in the long, but rather sluggish process of the formation of this military-political structure.
First of all, it must be emphasised that the meeting itself and its results are an obvious and resounding success of US diplomacy. Washington, with the same hard pressure as in Europe, where it prides itself on how quickly and effectively it mobilised and subordinated its NATO partners to a single allied will, is energetically “lining up” its allies in East Asia as well.
One of the fundamentally important characteristics of the new pact was that, if earlier it was considered as a non-primary instrument intended exclusively for the Northeast Asian region with an eye on North Korea, now its main mission has become global and defined in ensuring the strategic tasks of the US allies throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The document “The Spirit of Camp David” states: “Our partnership is built not only for our peoples, but for the entire Indo-Pacific region.”
So, Washington continues with indomitable energy to build a new global architecture of military-political alliances which are under its direct control, along the perimeter of the borders of Russia and China, uniting the security infrastructure from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean into a self-contained power infrastructure.
This summit became a real breakthrough in the long, but rather sluggish process of the formation of this military-political structure. There are indeed grounds for seeing a real transformation of the organisation previously described in terms of a “coalition structure” into a quasi-full-format military-political security pact, writes Alexander Vorontsov, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/reincarnation-of-the-usa-japan-south-korea-triangl/
#EconomicStatecraft #UnitedStates #Japan #SouthKorea #CampDavid #IndoPacific
🗣 🗣 🗣
First of all, it must be emphasised that the meeting itself and its results are an obvious and resounding success of US diplomacy. Washington, with the same hard pressure as in Europe, where it prides itself on how quickly and effectively it mobilised and subordinated its NATO partners to a single allied will, is energetically “lining up” its allies in East Asia as well.
One of the fundamentally important characteristics of the new pact was that, if earlier it was considered as a non-primary instrument intended exclusively for the Northeast Asian region with an eye on North Korea, now its main mission has become global and defined in ensuring the strategic tasks of the US allies throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The document “The Spirit of Camp David” states: “Our partnership is built not only for our peoples, but for the entire Indo-Pacific region.”
So, Washington continues with indomitable energy to build a new global architecture of military-political alliances which are under its direct control, along the perimeter of the borders of Russia and China, uniting the security infrastructure from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean into a self-contained power infrastructure.
This summit became a real breakthrough in the long, but rather sluggish process of the formation of this military-political structure. There are indeed grounds for seeing a real transformation of the organisation previously described in terms of a “coalition structure” into a quasi-full-format military-political security pact, writes Alexander Vorontsov, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/reincarnation-of-the-usa-japan-south-korea-triangl/
#EconomicStatecraft #UnitedStates #Japan #SouthKorea #CampDavid #IndoPacific
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Valdai Club
Reincarnation of the USA - Japan - South Korea Triangle
The main result of the summit, in our opinion, was a "great leap" in the implementation of the US strategy to create a unified military-political architecture from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean.