🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 AUKUS: Four Views on a Tripartite Agreement

On November 10, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?” on the possible implications of the trilateral defence cooperation agreement, concluded in September by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. The discussion was moderated by Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

🔹 Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney, said that there is a broad consensus on the AUKUS pact in Australia. The Australian establishment does not care about its potential effect on the fate of relations with China — here, in their opinion there is nothing to lose, since these relations have been completely destroyed over the course of three years of disputes between China and Australia.

🔹 Talking about the European reaction to AUKUS, Sim Tack, co-founder and chief military analyst at Force Analysis, stressed that despite attempts to become a more active and independent player, Europe remains highly dependent on the United States regarding security issues, and it will not go against Washington’s global strategy.

🔹 Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics at the University of Leicester, said that participation in AUKUS reflects the UK’s long-term desire for a transatlantic relationship with the United States and a stronger relationship with Australia. Accordingly, we are talking more about the development of already existing trends, and not something new.

🔹 Vasily Kashin, Deputy Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, stressed that what happened looks like a major defeat for Chinese foreign policy based on “dollar diplomacy”, ignoring ideological and political factors. China has long tried to put pressure on Australia, but this has only provoked Canberra to pursue irreversible actions which undermine political relations, despite Australia’s strong economic dependence on China.

🔗 AUKUS: Four Views on a Tripartite Agreement

#AUKUS #Australia #UK #UnitedStates #China

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 The AUKUS agreement, and particularly the nuclear-submarines component, appear to be part of a broader plan to bolster US capacity in the Asia-Pacific, reassure regional allies of the US commitment to defence of the region, and perhaps above all, to counter the perception of a “rising” and more assertive China.

At the same time, it will look to many like US double standards and even reflective of a neo-colonial attitude to nuclear proliferation where some countries are deemed “responsible” nuclear operators and others are not, writes Valdai Club expert Andrew Futter.

🔗 Unpacking the AUKUS Trilateral Security Partnership: Politics, Proliferation and Propulsion

#Conflict_and_Leadership #AUKUS #Australia #UK #UnitedStates #China #AsiaPacific

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇨🇳🇦🇺 In the middle of the last decade Australia’s growing partnership with China was widely seen as one of the most robust in Asia. Yet, within a short span of three years, it has become emblematic of China’s troubled relations with its Asian neighbors.

Barely a few years ago, Chinese foreign policy and its diplomatic focus on soft power were universally hailed for impressive achievements. It was held in contrast to the US reliance on military force and economic coercion. Beijing’s subtle pursuit of its national interest  and Washington’s crude formulations such as “with us, or against us” seemed as different as cheese and chalk.

China’s current troubled relations with Australia demonstrate the pitfalls of Beijing adopting Washington’s playbook.

While the regional and global damage from China’s Australian fiasco is real, it might not be too late for Beijing to correct course, writes C. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

🔗 Lessons from the China-Australia Conflict

🔵 The article is published within the framework of a new Valdai Club programme “Modern Diplomacy”.

#ModernDiplomacy #Australia #China

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 Why does anyone think the new AUKUS partnership is such a big deal?

Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, certainly thinks it is. He portrayed it as his country’s “single greatest [security] initiative” in seventy years.

The AUKUS headlines focused on the US and UK offering to share naval nuclear propulsion technology with Australia. They didn’t mention the main reason why submarines need nuclear propulsion. There is one primary mission for nuclear-powered attack submarines, and it is a mission that cannot be performed by their diesel-electric competitors. Nuclear-powered attack submarines hunt, track, and (in extremis) kill nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.

The “forever” in AUKUS isn’t the long wait for delivery of the subs. It’s the forever of nuclear Armageddon.

Australia’s accession to AUKUS will not result in any net gain to the alliance’s nuclear submarine numbers for decades to come. But it will give the alliance a meaningful, capable base at the fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific region, in a politically-stable country that is unlikely ever to withdraw from the partnership, writes Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney.

🔗 Understanding the ‘Forever’ Alliance: What AUKUS Means for Australia and the World

💡 We welcome polemics and invite to discussion all those who have a different perspective of the issue covered by the author.

#EconomicStatecraft #Australia #AUKUS

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club