⏰ TODAY at 4:00 pm, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “The Politicisation of Digital Supply Chains as a New Geopolitical Strategy. How Can States Resist?”

❓ How practical is the idea of digital platform neutrality?
❓ Can Russian and Asian platforms completely replace Western competitors?
❓ What will be the future of digital platforms?

Participants of the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online-platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, on Telegram and Twitter.

🔗 Valdai Club to Discuss the Politicisation of Digital Supply Chains

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🎥 LIVE: at 4:00 pm, we are starting an expert discussion titled “The Politicisation of Digital Supply Chains as a New Geopolitical Strategy. How Can States Resist?”

https://vk.com/video-117768947_456239334

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇺🇸🇷🇺🇨🇳 This US trend of military escalation is thereby a general threat to humanity. Why the US is embarking on such policy?

The core of the issue is that the US has already lost overwhelming world economic predominance. Even taking the US’s single biggest competitor economy, China, the US no longer has an overwhelming lead.

At market exchange rates the US economy is still bigger than China but in realistic price levels, purchasing power parities (PPPs), China’s economy is already 18% larger than the US. The economy the global era of multipolarity has already arrived.

The great present danger is that while the US has irreversibly lost global economic dominance it has not yet lost military supremacy. Certainly, in nuclear weapons the US and Russia are approximately equal but the conventional military spending of the US is far higher than any other country.

In 1912 German Chief of Staff Moltke made the notorious statement “war is unavoidable and the sooner the better.” This, from Germany’s viewpoint, was a rational calculation. Russia and the US’s economies were growing more rapidly than Germany - inevitably leading to them becoming militarily stronger than Germany.

This is similarly the great present danger flowing from the US. The US is attempting to use its military strength to avoid the geopolitical consequences of its relative economic decline, writes Valdai Club expert John Ross.

🔗 Russia-China Cooperation Crucial in a Very Dangerous Moment for Humanity

#Norms_and_Values #USA #militarism

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🌏 In the coming years, the main regulator of political and economic interaction will be the ability of governments to find solutions that are beneficial for themselves in an anarchic environment dominated by the rule of the strong.

This is not to say that such circumstances are particularly comfortable for most of the states around Russia, including even powerful China, whose rule for decades was not to adapt the existing norms to suit their interests, and not to act in the absence of any norms in principle.

As for the less important countries, for them the likely benefits will be offset by the constant tension resulting from their inability to exert even theoretical influence on the behaviour of the most powerful.

The fact that Western countries preferred the military scenario of restructuring Europe’s security architecture, with which Russia was forced to agree, shows that no one can boast of confidence in the future, and any agreements will easily be sacrificed to the priorities of the stronger.

Therefore, in a hypothetical future, for Russia and China, the two most important powers of Eurasia, it will be important to answer the question of how they are able to create at least relative confidence in their environment, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

🔗 Peacebuilding in Eurasia

#Asia_and_Eurasia #geopolitics #world

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🛡💻 Digital Sovereignty as a Factor of State Sovereignty

On March 24, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion, titled “The Politicisation of Digital Supply Chains as a New Geopolitical Strategy. How Can States Resist?”

🔹 The moderator was Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club. He raised the question of the impact of technological platforms on society and the possible danger of manipulations associated with them.

🔹 Arvind Gupta, head and co-founder of the Digital India Foundation, noted that the Internet was originally created as a public good, but over time it has turned into a weapon and tool of geopolitical struggle. Most of the digital platforms that control the data flow are located in the United States - and clearly do not observe the principles of geopolitical neutrality. At the same time, having enormous power, they do not bear any responsibility for the dissemination of misinformation.

🔹 Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, argued that the free market is also extremely important and maintaining tight control over digital platforms and restricting their activities is not justified. However, he acknowledged that without digital sovereignty, there can be no state sovereignty, and that countries need systems of national control over data. He added that it is important to avoid a monopoly so that if one or another platform leaves the country, users can switch to another painlessly.

🔹 Igor Ashmanov, President of Kribrum JSC, pointed out the impossibility of reaching effective international agreements in the field of Internet control and information security. All such attempts, he said, are torpedoed by the Americans. In turn, attempts to conclude an agreement on artificial intelligence are opposed by both leaders in this field - America and China. He is also sceptical about the ability to force digital platforms to comply with government laws outside the United States. The expert considers digital sovereignty a possible way out, but this is a complex phenomenon and almost no one has the opportunity to fully build it.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/digital-sovereignty-as-a-factor-of-state-sovereignty/

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇮🇳🇷🇺 Differences do exist between India and Russia on the ongoing situation in Ukraine but that has been the nature of India-Russia relationship since decades where difference of opinion has not impacted their bilateral ties.

In line with the Realist perspective, India has tried to safeguard its national interest in this situation:

1️⃣ One, India shares a disputed border with China and a border standoff is ongoing between the two Asian giants in high Himalayas. To maintain balance of power in the Eurasian region through diplomatic and military means, Moscow has been supplying critical military hardware to India and is the only country to have made attempts to diffuse tensions between India and China by facilitating contact and interaction between their leaders over the past year.

2️⃣ Second, historical memory in India and Russia with regards to the days of former ‘Empire’ and their current neighbourhood is similar. Pakistan was created after the British Empire decolonised in 1947. Similarly, Ukraine became independent after disintegration of Soviet Union in 1991. During the Cold War, Pakistan’s alliance with the US had created security problems for India. The current China-Pakistan nexus also has security implications for India. In the same way, Russia has had historical apprehensions about NATO’s role in its neighbourhood and former Soviet republics becoming NATO members crosses Russia’s security threshold.

3️⃣ Third, despite India’s deepening ties with the US, India continues to depend on Russia for military hardware. Contrary to the oft cited figure of 60-70 percent, a study by Stimson Centre, US found in 2021 that India’s dependence on Russia for arms supplies is as high as 85 percent. Indian military facing China on its northern borders depends on Russia for critical supplies and antagonising Moscow at such a juncture remains impossible. The military-technical cooperation between India and Russia remains ahead of what is or may be there between India and the US. Reliability is still a factor that remains uncertain in India-US ties despite their deepening relationship.

A weak and isolated Russia is not in India’s interests and New Delhi will make efforts to help its traditional friend in its hour of need, writes Raj Kumar Sharma, Post-Doc Fellow, Delhi School of Transnational Affairs, University of Delhi.

🔗 India’s Diplomatic Stand on Russia-Ukraine Crisis

#Asia_and_Eurasia #India

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇺🇸☢️🇮🇷 It is becoming increasingly clear that neither Washington nor Tehran want the Vienna talks to fail and the confrontation to escalate.

The fuel crisis in the United States, which worsened after the ban on the import of energy resources from Russia to America, may soften Washington’s position at the negotiations in Vienna. 

Both sides understand that they will not be able to achieve their maximalist goals, which means that intermediate compromise agreements are needed to keep the nuclear deal afloat, at least in the near future, and to continue the search for more long-term solutions, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Maryasov.

🔗 The Fate of the Nuclear Deal with Iran

#ModernDiplomacy #Iran #NuclearDeal

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇦🇲🇹🇷 The establishment of direct trade and economic relations between Armenia and Turkey will contribute to the mitigation of hostile sentiments.

The gradual building of peaceful relations between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan, which is an extremely important task for other countries in the region.

The establishment of direct Armenian-Turkish trade and economic relations will lead to a transformation of regional geopolitics and geo-economic balances. It is important to assess these changes, especially from the positions of regional and world powers, each state of the South Caucasus and all neighbouring countries, writes Ara Karyan, Russian-Armenian University, Ph.D. , associate professor, platform coordinator at the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAU.

🔗 Ublocking Closed Transport Links in the Caucasus: Opening the Border of Armenia and Turkey

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Armenia #Turkey

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇦🇿🇦🇲 The re-opening of the trans-Zangazur route is very important for Azerbaijan.

For Azerbaijan, the Zangazur corridor is a shorter route to connect with the Nakhchivan exclave and Turkey. 

The Zangazur corridor does not include only a railway link, but also a highway between the two parts of Azerbaijan. This is one area on which the sides have yet to reach an agreement.

The complete re-opening of regional transportation routes is in the interest of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as of their extra-regional potential users, particularly Russia, Turkey, Iran, the European Union and China. 

Thanks to the new situation, Armenia will also overcome its relative isolation in the situation in this region and become part of the Middle Corridor, writes Valdai Club expert Vasif Huseynov.

🔗 Zangazur Corridor is the Cornerstone of the Post-War Regional Cooperation Projects in the South Caucasus

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Azerbaijan #Armenia

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🌏 From the perspective of both geopolitics and geo-economy, Greater Eurasia has great potential and advantages.

From the perspective of geopolitics, Greater Eurasia can stabilize western Russia in the short term.

1️⃣ First, the eastward development of Greater Eurasia will cushion the pressure from the Atlantic alliance and NATO’s eastward expansion.

2️⃣ Second, Greater Eurasia will promote a geopolitical balance between Russia, Europe and Asia.

In the past, Russia’s political focus was limited to the west, which means a certain degree of vulnerability: once the relations with Europe go down, Russia fell into isolation. Greater Eurasia can make up for this by moving eastward.

It is up to European countries, including Russia, to talk through a future European security structure: even though strategically Russia can rely on its Asian partners, it cannot separate itself from Europe geographically.

If Russia intends to promote Greater Eurasia eastward smoothly, European stability should be taken into consideration: cooperation with the Belt and Road Initiative, whose route goes to west, is also a major part of Greater Eurasia, write Valdai Club experts Wang Yiwei and Duan Minnong.

🔗 Is Greater Eurasia Possible Without Europe: A Security Perspective?

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Eurasia

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On March 31 at 12:00 pm, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “A World on the Edge of Hunger: How Can We Overcome the Current Food Crisis?”

The problem of food security is becoming more acute at the global level. Many medium-term forecasts are of an alarmist nature, and predict serious difficulties in the stable provision of food to entire countries and regions of the world. This, in turn, can lead to significant social consequences, including an increase in migration flows.

Factors which have contributed to the aggravation of the food situation include the coronavirus pandemic and the associated decline in production, the disruption of supply chains, and the situation in Ukraine. The conflict has already led to a significant increase in food prices on world markets and most likely may lead to a reduction in the volume of grain and other food supplies. In the long term, climate change will seriously affect the aggravation of food scarcity. Drought, reduced soil fertility, and the possible flooding of the coastal lowlands - all of these can lead to the erosion of the "food sovereignty" of individual countries and a sharp decrease in the level of food security throughout the world.

❓How serious are the consequences of the current food crisis?
❓Which countries and regions are most likely to be affected?
❓What measures can the international community take to deal with the crisis?
❓Should Russian consumers be afraid of interruptions in food supplies?

Participants of the discussion will answer these and other questions.

Speakers:

🇪🇬 Nourhan ElSheikh, Professor of Political Science, Cairo University

🇷🇺 Oleg Kobyakov, Director of the Moscow office of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations

🇧🇯 Aniset Gabriel Kotchofa, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Benin to the Russian Federation and the CIS countries (2012-2016), Associate Professor of Lomonosov Moscow State University

🇷🇺 Oleg Sirota, entrepreneur, cheese maker

Moderator:

🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme director of the Valdai Discussion Club

Working languages: Russian, English.

🔗 Valdai Club to Discuss the Current Food Crisis

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online-platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, on Telegram and Twitter.

#Norms_and_Values

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🚫🌐 The West-staged “total economic warfare” against Russia is the self-proving evidence that the old globalization is dying and a new model is emerging.

It started with Donald Trump and his first steps towards the so-called decoupling from China. It proceeded with the COVID-19 pandemic, which exposed the need to rethink the global supply chains, especially when it comes to the production and export of strategic goods, and with the Ever Given incident, which led many analysts to endorse the development of new and/or alternative routes.

A multi-speed, region-based globalization is taking form. In such a context, the West is unlikely to keep being the world economy’s beating heart. Conversely, it is likely to be one of the many blocs – although a major one – of a multipolar system, writes geopolitical analyst Emanuel Pietrobon. 

🔗 Ukraine, the Sanctions and the Future of Globalisation

#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇰🇷🇰🇵 The Republic of Korea and the DPRK still perceive themselves as post-colonial states.

At the same time, the pulling force of antipathy towards the former metropolis is so strong that the antagonistic North and South act from a unified position. Historical issues also outweigh political and economic conjuncture: Seoul, which is in the same regional pro-American “camp” as Tokyo, is ready to risk developed and mutually beneficial cooperation with Japan, in seeking recognition of its position on memory issues.

The loss of independence by Korea following the end of the 19th century and the subsequent period of Japanese colonial rule (1910-1945) have remained in the historical memory of Koreans as an era of national humiliation.

This collective trauma has not been fully overcome even today; moreover, it has become one of the supporting structures of modern Korea’s political myth and national identity, writes Valdai Club Expert Ilya Dyachkov.

🔗 Questions of the Past – Politics of the Future? Historical Issues in South Korean-Japanese Relations

#Norms_and_Values #SouthKorea #Japan

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club