🌐 Strategic Instability and a New Global Equilibrium

On December 18, a discussion devoted to strategic stability was held at the Valdai Club in Moscow.

💬 The moderator of the discussion, Andrey Sushentsov, pointed out the inextricable link between the topic of strategic stability and the confrontation between Russia and the West in Ukraine. He compared the current situation with the early stages of the Cold War, when the rules and practices of interaction were not yet obvious. Now the current crisis has also approached a dangerous line, and whether a settlement will be reached in the near future remains an open question.

💬 Sergey Ryabkov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, believes that what is happening now has no analogues in the past. Currently, the chaos and ungovernability of international life have reached an unprecedented level, and the situation continues to deteriorate. The objectively overdue transition to multipolarity is being slowed down by the West, led by the United States, which harbours hegemonic ambitions and tramples on the principles of equal and indivisible security. In order to maintain global dominance, Washington is ready to provoke strategic risks and increase force pressure. Such geopolitical games can lead to catastrophic consequences.

💬 Dmitry Trenin, Research Professor at the Higher School of Economics and Leading Researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is also confident that we are bogged down in strategic instability, which will continue until a new equilibrium is established in the world. Until then, strong turbulence will persist. The nature of deterrence is changing. “Unfortunately, the probability of the use of nuclear weapons today is much higher than during the Cold War, with the exception of the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Trenin believes. The escalation strategies being implemented by the Joe Biden administration are leading to a direct clash.

💬 Nelson Wong, Vice Chairman of the Shanghai Centre for RimPac Strategic and International Studies, pointed out that as we approach the end of the third year of the special military operation, the international situation continues to deteriorate. The risk of another round of the arms race between the major powers and the world sliding towards World War III is increasing. The situation has been exacerbated by a number of other conflicts around the world, and in order to prevent them from escalating into a global catastrophe, leaders must prioritise peace and development and take into account each other’s security concerns.

💬 Robert Legvold, Professor Emeritus at the Department of Political Science at Columbia University, called Trump’s future foreign policy, including with regards to the Ukrainian issue, unpredictable. As for strategic stability, according to the researcher, the concept that was honed and improved by the USSR and the USA has lost its relevance and does not correspond to the conditions of the world, in which the nuclear club includes many players. Legvold also sees certain problems in connection with the concept of nuclear deterrence. Initially, the idea was that nuclear weapons were considered as a means of deterring the use of nuclear weapons. However, in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, other options are emerging that provide for a lower threshold for use.

💬 “The concept of strategic stability has replaced the concept of political equilibrium,” noted Geoffrey Roberts, Emeritus Professor of History at University College Cork. The peace that emerged in Europe after the Congress of Vienna was precisely the result of achieving equilibrium, a kind of collective hegemony. The current strategic instability is the result of a missed opportunity to create a new version of the Vienna system. To achieve such an equilibrium, the willingness of great powers to give priority to collective interests in international systems and to support security guarantees for the entire world community is required, Roberts emphasised.