🇺🇸 In the wake of his success in the South Carolina primaries, Trump's victory in the fight for the Republican nomination is almost guaranteed.

Now he must concentrate a significant portion of his campaign resources on fighting Biden. His choice for the post of vice president will have strategic significance. This is due to several reasons.

1️⃣ First, it is important for the American voter to know that the position of head of state will be in good hands if the president is unable to perform his duties. The reasons can be different, from ordinary surgery to death. Let’s not forget that by election day, Trump will already be 78 years old and no matter how anyone talks about his activity or vigour, age is taking its toll, and voters have noticed it.

2️⃣ Second, the majority of Americans do not want to see either Trump or Biden as a presidential candidate. Some voters, including some Republicans, are planning to sit out the 2024 elections altogether. While it is more important for Republicans, especially Trump, to win in certain parts of some states than by the total number of popular votes, this still creates some difficulties on his way to victory. Wooing ‘MAGA’ voters won't be enough for him.

3️⃣ Third, one of the main arguments of the Democrats against Trump remains the assertion that he is uncontrollable and prone to authoritarianism. While checks and balances have always been enough to rein in controversial US presidents, including Trump himself from 2017 to 2021, some voters fear for the state of democracy.

4️⃣ Fourth, Trump has a chance to use the choice of vice president to gain additional political “points.” This is a conditional advantage only because four years later, Biden is unlikely to be able to surprise anyone with Kamala Harris.

Despite Trump's apparent superiority over Biden, the former president will have a difficult time winning in November, writes Roman Romanov, Ph.D. fellow at the Russian State University for the Humanities.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/trump-s-path-to-victory-a-priority-electorate/

#GlobalAlternatives #Trump

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🇪🇺 The European Union’s Green Deal must be criticised for three reasons:

▪️ it is dogmatic, because it does not provide for alternative scenarios;

▪️ it is economically highly problematic, because it burdens industry in Europe with costs and uncertainties and therefore restricts its international competitiveness;

▪️ it is technologically immature and unrealistic: neither the market-ready technologies nor the financial means to implement the Commission’s goal of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050 are available.

Pursued under the concept of the Green Deal, the energy transition has been one of the strongest and most damaging factors influencing the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany, and therefore the economy of Europe. This policy is primarily being pursued by Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission and Olaf Scholz’s cabinet.

Any measure that hinders the supply of affordable energy to Europe, such as the continuation of sanctions or a premature withdrawal from long-term gas supply contracts, will cause massive damage to the European economy and set the EU back by years, if not decades, Ulrike Reisner writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-dark-side-of-brussels-energy-policy-the-green/

🖇️ Earlier this year, we published the first and the second part of this analysis.

#GlobalAlternatives #EU #energy

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🌊 The resumption of the Arab-Israeli conflict on October 7, 2023 represented a new turning point in the impact of technological capabilities on the interdiction of commercial maritime traffic, which happened despite a high-profile international military coalition.

This new type of blockade, which brought together the tactical capabilities of state and non-state actors, began on November 19 after the Yemeni army insisted that the Israeli authorities cease fire in Gaza. It began with a Hollywood-style seizure of the British vessel Galaxy Leader on the high seas, thanks to a combined Yemeni naval and helicopter force.

This is not the first time that Houthi military actions have had a global geopolitical impact. Although rural in origin, this movement has demonstrated a global understanding of economic and strategic issues, striking Saudi oil installations throughout the war, pitting them against the coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

This reached a climax in 2019 with the strategic bombing of the Khurais and Abqaiq oil sites, which account for 7% of the world’s crude oil production.

On February 25, the Israeli press reported that four undersea communications cables between Saudi Arabia and Djibouti had been put out of commission by alleged Houthi attacks.

According to the Israeli newspaper Globes, this sabotage has caused serious disruption to communications between Europe and Asia, particularly the Gulf States and India.

This sabotage proves two things: firstly, that submarine attacks are within the reach of small armies with no navy. Secondly, that Western armies are completely incapable of waging a war underwater to prevent, detect and counter this threat, writes Akram Kharief.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/maritime-interdiction-a-new-global-geopolitical/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Yemen #Houthi #RedSea

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🛡️ The question of the European security system has boiled down to its hard realist basis: where will the line between Russia and NATO be drawn?

Europe, like the rest of the collective West, believes that this line should run along the eastern border of the former Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, and Russia – along its western border. 

In the spring of 2024, we can confidently say that the West has been unable to defeat Russia as it wanted and now it is concerned with ensuring that Russia “does not win.” So, in the future, for years, if not decades to come, security in Europe will be determined by the balance of power along the line of contact between Russia and NATO.

Russia will do everything to maintain this balance for its part, writes Nikolai Silaev, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Caucasus Problems and Regional Security, MGIMO University.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-guns-are-heard-better/

📍 This article continues the discussion of the prospects for European security on our website.

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #EuropeanSecurity

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On April 10 at 14:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to international information security.

At a recent seminar, Elon Musk, one of the founders of OpenAI, expressed concern about the potential for artificial intelligence to run out of control and cause the end of the world. He estimated the likelihood of this scenario to be between 10% and 20%.

Despite these gloomy predictions, Russia has continued its efforts to include provisions in the UN Convention on International Cybersecurity to combat the use of AI for terrorism and to boost the information technology capacity of developing countries, including with respect to AI. To date, the most significant achievement in strengthening the international security system has been the joint resolution between Russia and the United States, within the framework of the UN General Assembly, on the responsible behaviour of states in cyberspace. This resolution was an important step towards creating a more secure and stable digital environment.

❓The participants in the discussion will explore the prospects for international cooperation in the information space, as well as the potential impact of AI on cybersecurity.
❓They will also discuss the challenges faced by developing countries in terms of inequality in access to information technology.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇷🇺 Igor Ashmanov, President of Kribrum JSC, member of the Russian Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights

🇷🇺 Artur Lyukmanov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for International Cooperation in the Field of Information Security, Director of the Department of International Information Security of the MFA of Russia

🇷🇺 Ilya Semerikov, head of the scientific group of the Russian Quantum Centre

🇨🇳 Shen Yi, Director of the Research Centre for the Governance of Global Cyberspace, Fudan University (China)

Moderator:

🗣 Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-global-cybersecurity/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: Dear journalists, to be accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website. If you have any questions about the event, call +79269307763. 

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen. 

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⏰ TODAY at 14:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to international information security.

The participants in the discussion will explore the prospects for international cooperation in the information space, as well as the potential impact of AI on cybersecurity. They will also discuss the challenges faced by developing countries in terms of inequality in access to information technology.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen. 

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🎥 LIVE: at 14:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to international information security.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239183

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On April, 10, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to international information security.

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 If you missed the live broadcast of the discussion, watch the video via this link.

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💻 Information Technology: Threat or Opportunity?

On April 10, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted an expert discussion on international information security, in which both Russian and foreign experts took part. The moderator was Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for the Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club.

🔹 Igor Ashmanov, President of Kribrum JSC, a member of the Presidential Council of the Russian Federation for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights, noted that all attempts to conclude agreements at the UN and ICANN levels ended in nothing. Ashmanov explained that this is mainly prevented by the United States and its allies, because the US national legislation does not prohibit the possibility of cyberattacks against other states. Against this background, Russia must safeguard its own cyber and media security, in other words, its digital sovereignty.

🔹 Despite the global situation and sanctions against Russia, our country has achieved some success in strengthening its technological sovereignty. Thus, at the national level, Russia is actively engaged in import substitution and the development of new generation quantum computers, according to Ilya Semirikov, head of the scientific group of the Russian Quantum Centre. According to him, technical developments in the cyber sphere are actively underway in Russia.

🔹 Artur Lyukmanov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for International Cooperation in the Field of Information Security, and Director of the Department of International Information Security of the MFA of Russia, spoke about the possibility of developing legislation in the field of information security within the framework of international organisations. He recalled that one of the key principles of the UN Charter is respect for the sovereign equality of states, and that sovereignty should extend to technology. In this vein, Lyukmanov noted the efforts that Russia is making at the international level, conducting explanatory negotiations with the countries of the Global South and East regarding the types and nature of cyber threats emanating from other countries.

🔹 One of the countries that shares Russia’s position on this issue is China. The Chinese point of view was presented in detail by Shen Yi, director of the Cyberspace Management Research Centre at Fudan University of China. He is convinced that the main threat in cyberspace lies in US digital hegemony, which, of course, must be prevented. But how? Shen Yi believes it is possible to build a security system within the BRICS framework, and that this should become one of the key goals of the organisation.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/information-technology-threat-or-opportunity/

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🌎 Today’s world has added another level of complexity to the US – Latin America relationship.

The five monopolies that Egyptian scholar Samir Amin identified as the source of strength of the US-led world order: weapons of mass destruction, mass communication, monetary and financial systems, technology, and access to natural resources, are beginning to break down.

New trading arrangements as well as the de-dollarisation efforts coming from BRICS+ call into question the financial control; advances by Russia and China have curbed US technological superiority; and even Washington’s control over certain natural resources is diminishing.

This means that the United States will now have to rely even more heavily on its military strength and its information apparatus to exert control over what it believes is its natural sphere of influence.

The US information and military presence is likely to increase, but any true agenda of development and autonomy in the region can only be pursued through the efforts of the Latin American and Caribbean nations themselves, not via a partnership with Washington, writes Carlos Ron, Venezuela’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs for North America and President of the Simon Bolivar Institute for Peace and Solidarity Among Peoples.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-impact-of-the-coming-us-elections-on-latin/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #LatinAmerica #UnitedStates

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🌐 Does foreign policy no longer matter?

We already see that the modern state is faced with such serious challenges that foreign policy is everywhere subject to considerations of a domestic, political nature.

Foreign policy activity fades into the background and is considered only in the context of the internal struggle for unity (Russia, China, India) or the retention of power by elites, who have become practically irreplaceable in recent decades (the USA and the largest European countries).

Apparently, the growing changes in international life will be so significant that they will affect not only the direct balance of power between the leading nations, but even our fundamental ideas about the degree of importance of certain types of state activity, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/does-foreign-policy-no-longer-matter/

#WiderEurasia #ForeignPolicy #WorldOrder

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On April 17 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3) the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the EAEU as the core component of the Greater Eurasian Partnership.

In recent years, the process of Eurasian economic integration has emerged as an essential tool for member states to achieve their national development objectives, strengthen good-neighborly relations, and promote mutual market openness among their economies.

Amidst the backdrop of significant changes and turmoil in the global market and geopolitical landscape, caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the ongoing military-political standoff between Russia and Western countries, the mechanisms and principles of the EAEU have proven instrumental in facilitating the interaction of member states with the global economic system, as well as in simplifying connections among them and promoting economic growth.

The growth rates in certain EAEU member states, such as Armenia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan, are particularly noteworthy. The institutions and regulatory frameworks of the union contribute to the increase in mutual trade between participating countries and their engagement with external partners.

❓What should be the next steps towards increasing the mutual openness of EAEU memberstates?
❓What are some promising new directions and areas for integration?
❓How should the union’s development strategy take into account global shifts?

These and other questions will be addressed by the discussion participants.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇷🇺 Georgy Arzumanyan, Deputy Director of the EEC Industrial Policy Department

🇰🇿 Rakhim Oshakbaev, Director of the TALAP Center for Applied Research (Kazakhstan)

🇷🇺 Dmitriy Prokhorenko, Foreign network overseas Director, Russian Export Center

🇰🇬 Kubatbek Rakhimov, Executive Director of the Applicata — Center for Strategic Solutions (Kyrgyzstan)

Moderator:

🗣 Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-eaeu-as-the-core-of-the-greater-eurasian-partnership/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: Dear journalists, to be accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website. If you have any questions about the event, call +79269307763. 

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen. 

#WiderEurasia #EAEU #Eurasia

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