📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On November 10, at 15:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?”
In September 2021, the United States, Britain and Australia entered into a trilateral defence cooperation agreement – AUKUS. The main tasks for this cooperation were named: strengthening stability in the Indo-Pacific, developing Australia's military potential and jointly combating new challenges to regional security. However, there is a reason to believe that the new agreement could undermine rather than strengthen security in the Indo-Pacific. Although officially the new alliance does not have an anti-Chinese orientation, it is obvious that its creation will lead to an increase in the presence of the participating countries in a part of the world that has traditionally been the sphere of influence of Beijing, and will become an attempt to contain China, and possibly the beginning of a new Cold War with a large-scale arms race.
A number of states, including Russia, have expressed concern that the new format for cooperation could potentially lead to a violation of the nonproliferation regime. AUKUS assumes that the nuclear powers – the United States and Britain – will transfer to Australia the technology for building nuclear submarines with conventional weapons, which could become a dangerous precedent and open a new way for the creation of nuclear weapons by a non-nuclear power. Also, this agreement has led to the termination of a multibillion-dollar contract between Australia and France for the construction of submarines. Paris considered this step a betrayal – the French ambassadors were recalled from Washington and Canberra.
❓What could be China ’s response to the creation of a new defence alliance?
❓How will the new agreement affect the relations between the United States, its European allies and Australia?
❓Could Australia become a nuclear power in the future?
❓How should Russia react to the emergence of AUKUS?
These and other questions will be answered by the participants in the discussion.
👥 Speakers:
🇦🇺 Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney
🇬🇧 Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics, University of Leicester, UK
🇷🇺 Vasily Kashin, Deputy Director at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics
🇧🇪 Sim Tack, co-founder and chief military analyst at Force Analysis
Moderator:
🚩 Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
Working languages: Russian, English.
ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms used by the Valdai Club: on the website, on Facebook, Vkontakte, Instagram, and Telegram.
🔗 Valdai Club to Discuss a New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific
#valdaiclub #AUKUS
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
In September 2021, the United States, Britain and Australia entered into a trilateral defence cooperation agreement – AUKUS. The main tasks for this cooperation were named: strengthening stability in the Indo-Pacific, developing Australia's military potential and jointly combating new challenges to regional security. However, there is a reason to believe that the new agreement could undermine rather than strengthen security in the Indo-Pacific. Although officially the new alliance does not have an anti-Chinese orientation, it is obvious that its creation will lead to an increase in the presence of the participating countries in a part of the world that has traditionally been the sphere of influence of Beijing, and will become an attempt to contain China, and possibly the beginning of a new Cold War with a large-scale arms race.
A number of states, including Russia, have expressed concern that the new format for cooperation could potentially lead to a violation of the nonproliferation regime. AUKUS assumes that the nuclear powers – the United States and Britain – will transfer to Australia the technology for building nuclear submarines with conventional weapons, which could become a dangerous precedent and open a new way for the creation of nuclear weapons by a non-nuclear power. Also, this agreement has led to the termination of a multibillion-dollar contract between Australia and France for the construction of submarines. Paris considered this step a betrayal – the French ambassadors were recalled from Washington and Canberra.
❓What could be China ’s response to the creation of a new defence alliance?
❓How will the new agreement affect the relations between the United States, its European allies and Australia?
❓Could Australia become a nuclear power in the future?
❓How should Russia react to the emergence of AUKUS?
These and other questions will be answered by the participants in the discussion.
👥 Speakers:
🇦🇺 Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney
🇬🇧 Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics, University of Leicester, UK
🇷🇺 Vasily Kashin, Deputy Director at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics
🇧🇪 Sim Tack, co-founder and chief military analyst at Force Analysis
Moderator:
🚩 Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
Working languages: Russian, English.
ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms used by the Valdai Club: on the website, on Facebook, Vkontakte, Instagram, and Telegram.
🔗 Valdai Club to Discuss a New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific
#valdaiclub #AUKUS
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Valdai Club to Discuss a New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific
On November 10, at 15:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?”
UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion will be available soon via the same link. Stay tuned!
🎥 LIVE: at 15:00 Moscow time (GMT+3) we are starting an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?”
🔗 LIVE: AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific? An Expert Discussion
#AUKUS #ColdWar #NewWorldOrder
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
🎥 LIVE: at 15:00 Moscow time (GMT+3) we are starting an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?”
🔗 LIVE: AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific? An Expert Discussion
#AUKUS #ColdWar #NewWorldOrder
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
LIVE: AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific? An Expert Discussion
On November 10, at 15:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?”
🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 AUKUS: Four Views on a Tripartite Agreement
On November 10, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?” on the possible implications of the trilateral defence cooperation agreement, concluded in September by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. The discussion was moderated by Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
🔹 Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney, said that there is a broad consensus on the AUKUS pact in Australia. The Australian establishment does not care about its potential effect on the fate of relations with China — here, in their opinion there is nothing to lose, since these relations have been completely destroyed over the course of three years of disputes between China and Australia.
🔹 Talking about the European reaction to AUKUS, Sim Tack, co-founder and chief military analyst at Force Analysis, stressed that despite attempts to become a more active and independent player, Europe remains highly dependent on the United States regarding security issues, and it will not go against Washington’s global strategy.
🔹 Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics at the University of Leicester, said that participation in AUKUS reflects the UK’s long-term desire for a transatlantic relationship with the United States and a stronger relationship with Australia. Accordingly, we are talking more about the development of already existing trends, and not something new.
🔹 Vasily Kashin, Deputy Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, stressed that what happened looks like a major defeat for Chinese foreign policy based on “dollar diplomacy”, ignoring ideological and political factors. China has long tried to put pressure on Australia, but this has only provoked Canberra to pursue irreversible actions which undermine political relations, despite Australia’s strong economic dependence on China.
🔗 AUKUS: Four Views on a Tripartite Agreement
#AUKUS #Australia #UK #UnitedStates #China
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
On November 10, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?” on the possible implications of the trilateral defence cooperation agreement, concluded in September by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. The discussion was moderated by Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
🔹 Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney, said that there is a broad consensus on the AUKUS pact in Australia. The Australian establishment does not care about its potential effect on the fate of relations with China — here, in their opinion there is nothing to lose, since these relations have been completely destroyed over the course of three years of disputes between China and Australia.
🔹 Talking about the European reaction to AUKUS, Sim Tack, co-founder and chief military analyst at Force Analysis, stressed that despite attempts to become a more active and independent player, Europe remains highly dependent on the United States regarding security issues, and it will not go against Washington’s global strategy.
🔹 Andrew Futter, Professor of International Politics at the University of Leicester, said that participation in AUKUS reflects the UK’s long-term desire for a transatlantic relationship with the United States and a stronger relationship with Australia. Accordingly, we are talking more about the development of already existing trends, and not something new.
🔹 Vasily Kashin, Deputy Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, stressed that what happened looks like a major defeat for Chinese foreign policy based on “dollar diplomacy”, ignoring ideological and political factors. China has long tried to put pressure on Australia, but this has only provoked Canberra to pursue irreversible actions which undermine political relations, despite Australia’s strong economic dependence on China.
🔗 AUKUS: Four Views on a Tripartite Agreement
#AUKUS #Australia #UK #UnitedStates #China
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
AUKUS: Four Views on a Tripartite Agreement
On November 10, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “AUKUS: A New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific?” on the possible implications of the trilateral defence cooperation agreement, concluded in September by the United States, the United Kingdom…
🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 The AUKUS agreement, and particularly the nuclear-submarines component, appear to be part of a broader plan to bolster US capacity in the Asia-Pacific, reassure regional allies of the US commitment to defence of the region, and perhaps above all, to counter the perception of a “rising” and more assertive China.
At the same time, it will look to many like US double standards and even reflective of a neo-colonial attitude to nuclear proliferation where some countries are deemed “responsible” nuclear operators and others are not, writes Valdai Club expert Andrew Futter.
🔗 Unpacking the AUKUS Trilateral Security Partnership: Politics, Proliferation and Propulsion
#Conflict_and_Leadership #AUKUS #Australia #UK #UnitedStates #China #AsiaPacific
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
At the same time, it will look to many like US double standards and even reflective of a neo-colonial attitude to nuclear proliferation where some countries are deemed “responsible” nuclear operators and others are not, writes Valdai Club expert Andrew Futter.
🔗 Unpacking the AUKUS Trilateral Security Partnership: Politics, Proliferation and Propulsion
#Conflict_and_Leadership #AUKUS #Australia #UK #UnitedStates #China #AsiaPacific
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Unpacking the AUKUS Trilateral Security Partnership: Politics, Proliferation and Propulsion
The AUKUS agreement, and particularly the nuclear-submarines component, appear to be part of a broader plan to bolster US capacity in the Asia-Pacific, reassure regional allies of the US commitment to defence of the region, and perhaps above all, to counter…
🇦🇺🇬🇧🇺🇸 Why does anyone think the new AUKUS partnership is such a big deal?
Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, certainly thinks it is. He portrayed it as his country’s “single greatest [security] initiative” in seventy years.
The AUKUS headlines focused on the US and UK offering to share naval nuclear propulsion technology with Australia. They didn’t mention the main reason why submarines need nuclear propulsion. There is one primary mission for nuclear-powered attack submarines, and it is a mission that cannot be performed by their diesel-electric competitors. Nuclear-powered attack submarines hunt, track, and (in extremis) kill nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.
The “forever” in AUKUS isn’t the long wait for delivery of the subs. It’s the forever of nuclear Armageddon.
Australia’s accession to AUKUS will not result in any net gain to the alliance’s nuclear submarine numbers for decades to come. But it will give the alliance a meaningful, capable base at the fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific region, in a politically-stable country that is unlikely ever to withdraw from the partnership, writes Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney.
🔗 Understanding the ‘Forever’ Alliance: What AUKUS Means for Australia and the World
💡 We welcome polemics and invite to discussion all those who have a different perspective of the issue covered by the author.
#EconomicStatecraft #Australia #AUKUS
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Australia’s prime minister, Scott Morrison, certainly thinks it is. He portrayed it as his country’s “single greatest [security] initiative” in seventy years.
The AUKUS headlines focused on the US and UK offering to share naval nuclear propulsion technology with Australia. They didn’t mention the main reason why submarines need nuclear propulsion. There is one primary mission for nuclear-powered attack submarines, and it is a mission that cannot be performed by their diesel-electric competitors. Nuclear-powered attack submarines hunt, track, and (in extremis) kill nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.
The “forever” in AUKUS isn’t the long wait for delivery of the subs. It’s the forever of nuclear Armageddon.
Australia’s accession to AUKUS will not result in any net gain to the alliance’s nuclear submarine numbers for decades to come. But it will give the alliance a meaningful, capable base at the fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific region, in a politically-stable country that is unlikely ever to withdraw from the partnership, writes Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney.
🔗 Understanding the ‘Forever’ Alliance: What AUKUS Means for Australia and the World
💡 We welcome polemics and invite to discussion all those who have a different perspective of the issue covered by the author.
#EconomicStatecraft #Australia #AUKUS
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Understanding the ‘Forever’ Alliance: What AUKUS Means for Australia and the World
Australia’s accession to AUKUS will not result in any net gain to the alliance’s nuclear submarine numbers for decades to come. But it will give the alliance a meaningful, capable base at the fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific region, in a politically-stable country…
🗾 In November 2021, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe noted that the country should strengthen cooperation with AUKUS members, especially in the field of cyber security and artificial intelligence.
In April 2022, the White House denied media reports that Japan had been invited to join and transform the agreement into a JAUKUS format.
However, there is no smoke without fire — in November 2022, Western analysts again started talking seriously about the prospects for Tokyo to enter the treaty, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/pacific-bite-japan-becomes-the-epicentre/
#EconomicStatecraft #Japan #AUKUS
@valdai_club
In April 2022, the White House denied media reports that Japan had been invited to join and transform the agreement into a JAUKUS format.
However, there is no smoke without fire — in November 2022, Western analysts again started talking seriously about the prospects for Tokyo to enter the treaty, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/pacific-bite-japan-becomes-the-epicentre/
#EconomicStatecraft #Japan #AUKUS
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Japan Becomes the Epicentre of a New Military Alliance
In November 2021, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe noted that the country should strengthen cooperation with AUKUS members, especially in the field of cyber security and artificial intelligence. In April 2022, the White House denied media reports…
🌎🌏 What does the intensification of interaction between the United States, South Korea and Japan in trilateral and other formats mean for Russia?
It points to a greater consolidation of bloc architecture in Northeast Asia, even compared to the 2010s. Unlike the publicised AUKUS, in this case one cannot refer only to the traditional cooperation between Anglo-Saxon countries. Even more cautious states, which previously included the Republic of Korea, have been drawn into the network of American minilateralism.
Moreover, Washington is getting better and better at linking its Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific alliances. If in the 2010s South Korea and Japan shied away from the policy of pressure on Russia or took only symbolic measures, this is no longer possible in the new conditions. It is indicative that Seoul, which has declared its non-participation in the supply of arms to Ukraine, is gradually turning into a source of replenishment of arsenals for NATO (primarily Poland). It even allowed the transfer to Kiev of equipment with South Korean components.
As the bloc logic consolidates, we should expect the deployment of the additional military potential of the United States and its allies near the Russian Far East.
Russia will have to respond to such changes as it faces a growing NATO military presence along its western borders. Moreover, the significance of the situation in the Pacific theatre will grow for Moscow as the Russian economy reorients towards relations with non-Western partners.
The apparent convergence in the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle creates challenges for the new logistics routes currently being built with much difficulty, including through the Sea of Japan, writes Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-us-south-korea-japan-triangle-in-the-biden-doc/
#Norms_and_Values #Japan #SouthKorea #UnitedStates #AUKUS
🗣 🗣 🗣
It points to a greater consolidation of bloc architecture in Northeast Asia, even compared to the 2010s. Unlike the publicised AUKUS, in this case one cannot refer only to the traditional cooperation between Anglo-Saxon countries. Even more cautious states, which previously included the Republic of Korea, have been drawn into the network of American minilateralism.
Moreover, Washington is getting better and better at linking its Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific alliances. If in the 2010s South Korea and Japan shied away from the policy of pressure on Russia or took only symbolic measures, this is no longer possible in the new conditions. It is indicative that Seoul, which has declared its non-participation in the supply of arms to Ukraine, is gradually turning into a source of replenishment of arsenals for NATO (primarily Poland). It even allowed the transfer to Kiev of equipment with South Korean components.
As the bloc logic consolidates, we should expect the deployment of the additional military potential of the United States and its allies near the Russian Far East.
Russia will have to respond to such changes as it faces a growing NATO military presence along its western borders. Moreover, the significance of the situation in the Pacific theatre will grow for Moscow as the Russian economy reorients towards relations with non-Western partners.
The apparent convergence in the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle creates challenges for the new logistics routes currently being built with much difficulty, including through the Sea of Japan, writes Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-us-south-korea-japan-triangle-in-the-biden-doc/
#Norms_and_Values #Japan #SouthKorea #UnitedStates #AUKUS
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Valdai Club
The US — South Korea — Japan Triangle in the Biden Doctrine
The apparent convergence in the Washington-Seoul-Tokyo triangle creates challenges for the new logistics routes currently being built with much difficulty, including through the Sea of Japan, writes Valdai Club expert Igor Istomin.