🇷🇺🇪🇺 Gas trade between Russia and Europe has had its ups and downs for over half a century but has brought tremendous benefits to both sides.

Europe’s energy policy ambition of a fast shift to a carbon-neutral economy for which natural gas is undesirable and merely a near-term, stop-gap solution is a threat to Russia-Europe gas trade.

In these circumstances, Russia is likely to intensify its efforts to diversify away from its dependence on the European gas market both in terms of methods of gas delivery and target markets, writes Vitaly Yermakov, expert with the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-rude-awakening-europe-is-struggling-to-secure-/

#Gas #Europe #energy #NordStream2

📷 AP Photo/Petr David Josek

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🏗🇪🇺 Nord Stream 2 could provide Europe with cheaper and greener energy. What stands in the way?

In October, the German Federal Network Agency suspended the certification process on the pretext of the recently-completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline not being compatible with the energy legislation in place. Swiss-based Nord Stream 2 AG is planning to open a subsidiary in Germany to comply with the EU and German energy regulations.

While it is too early to speculate whether this move could further stall the start of Nord Stream 2, it has given rise to numerous statements on the project’s (negative) impact on the European gas market and the future of natural gas transit via Ukraine.

The polarisation of public opinion regarding the pipeline’s impact has fundamentally altered purely technical discussions regarding the project. This had led to a misunderstanding of the key commercial reasons for starting the project and the future impact of the pipeline on European consumers. 

The politicisation of energy often prevents decisions from being made based on facts rather than incorrect perceptions, writes Valdai Club expert Danila Bochkarev. 

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/nord-stream-2-could-provide-europe-with-cheaper-gas/

#Corporations_and_Economy #NordStream2 #Europe #energy #gas

valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🛢🚫 The situation with the Nord Stream clearly illustrates the degradation of the legal basis for Russia’s interaction with the countries of the collective West and the lack of prospects for the revival of fairly-conducted trade in the medium term.

The actions of the Canadian authorities and Berlin’s solidarity with its transatlantic partners, which artificially creates obstacles to the implementation of joint gas transportation projects, indicate the predominance of the political factor in the traditional trade and economic mechanisms of interaction between the Euro-Atlantic partners and Moscow.

Taking into account the significant rise in the cost of hydrocarbons, the failure of the “green transition” in Europe and the ongoing stagnation of Western markets, the leading circles of Brussels and Washington considered that the time had come to transfer responsibility for turbulence in the energy markets and dynamically accelerating inflation in key European countries to Russia.

At the same time, the strengthening mechanism of unfair competition in the EU natural gas market becomes obvious. Gazprom’s competitors, primarily among the American LNG producers, see their interest in presenting Moscow as an “extremely unreliable partner” that imposes long-term contractual “bondage” on fuel supplies to democratic countries, and they are only waiting for the expensive LNG, given the current spot prices.

Such trends will inevitably affect the cost of all elements of production schemes in key sectors for the global economy: agriculture, fertilizers, the chemical industry, transport, etc. Such forecasts are mutually unacceptable both for the leadership of Brussels, and for Moscow, writes Valdai Club expert Vyacheslav Dmitriev.

#EconomicStatecraft #NordStream2 #gas #sanctions

@valdai_club

🌀The main problems of the Liberal World Order are located among its main and backbone participants.

We can observe a rapid erosion of what, in fact, allowed the United States to act as the main beneficiary of the global market and the manager of the goods it produces. This has caused the leading country of the West to be not only more selfish, but in reality unable to behave in the way it did characteristically during the Cold War and the first two decades after it.

The resource base of US policy is being destroyed not only in relation to the rest of the world, but also in relation to its closest allies. We have seen for months how clumsily the US is trying to win over India and other major emerging nations in the West’s ongoing economic war against Russia.

Even if Russia itself should not count on charity from its partners in the South and East, the US clearly does not already have the means to establish full control over their foreign policy.

Compression of the resources available to the leader of the Liberal World Order leads to the fact that it loses not only the ability to distribute something among other members of the international community, especially its closest allies, but is also forced to directly limit them in what it could previously allow.

In this sense, the sudden disruption of Nord Stream may look like a fairly logical, albeit decisive step towards closing the page in the history of minimal European independence, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

#Asia_and_Eurasia #NordStream2 #UnitedStates

@valdai_club

⏰ TODAY at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “Explosions at Nord Streams: The Geopolitics of Interrupted Energy Ties”.

❓To what extent will there be a reduction in gas supplies from Russia to the EU in the coming months?
❓Is the EU capable of compensating buyers for the lower volumes? What will be the reason for such compensation?
❓What are the prospects for the reorientation of Russian gas supplies to Asian markets?
❓What is the state of Russian projects in the field of liquefied gas production and is it possible to reorient pipeline supplies?

Participants of the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, Twitter, VKontakte, Telegram and Zen.

#EconomicStatecraft #NordStream #NordStream2

@valdai_club

UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3) we are starting an expert discussion titled “Explosions at Nord Streams: The Geopolitics of Interrupted Energy Ties”.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239036

#EconomicStatecraft #NordStream #NordStream2

@valdai_club

🌀'Geopolitics of Chaos' in the Energy Sector

On October 10, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Explosions at Nord Streams: The Geopolitics of Interrupted Energy Ties”, dedicated to the state of gas cooperation between Russia and other countries. The moderator was Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

💬 Aleksey Grivach, Deputy General Director for Gas Problems of the National Energy Security Fund, noted that until recently, relations between Russia and Europe in the gas sector were a vivid example of interdependence, an important aspect of which was mutual trust. This system not only served as a solid basis for bilateral trade, but also a constraint on unfriendly steps. “Now it is, if not destroyed, then certainly staggering, which opens the way for further escalation not only in the energy sector, but also in the field of strategic security,” the expert admitted.

💬 Evgeny Tipailov, Executive Director of the Institute for Interdependence Studies, outlined a number of factors and patterns that affect energy relations between Russia and Europe in the short and medium term. The first of these he called the "chaotisation of order". The ‘business as usual’ formula has ended, and the market is now waiting for the degradation of the legal landscape, the relativisation of contractual obligations, the growth of government interference, the erosion of the financial infrastructure and the zeroing of trust. The second factor is “arrhythmia in the energy markets”, a parallel acceleration and deceleration of a number of market processes. The third factor is the Americanisation of European energy policy, and the growth of American intervention. The fourth factor is the turn of Russian energy diplomacy to the East. The fifth factor is “energy homeostasis”, the desire of both sides, against the backdrop of energy hunger in Europe, to balance their position. The sixth factor is the reconfiguration of interdependence. For Russia, the key task should be to create a system that is as balanced as possible in terms of risks. Finally, the seventh factor is the “swan song of the dying world order”, a high probability of unpredictable events that could radically affect the commodity market and complicate forecasting.

💬 Alexey Gromov, Chief Energy Director of the Institute of Energy and Finance, called the Nord Stream sabotage a continuation of the “geopolitics of chaos” and an attempt to destroy the pipeline infrastructure as a field of opportunity for further cooperation. Analysing the prospects for Europe, he noted that it has every chance of persisting through the current heating period, although without much comfort. However, the question is what will happen next, given that European storage facilities were filled in the first half of this year mainly with Russian gas. It is not clear how the European Union will fill them next year without Nord Stream. It is also not clear how serious the risk of a complete cessation of Russian supplies is.

#EconomicStatecraft #gas #NordStream #NordStream2

@valdai_club