🌏 Turan, Iran, Russia and China are the core around which the economic development of the non-European world will be built.

Today, as the BRICS association is becoming one of the most dynamically expanding economic conglomerates of states in the world, it is obvious that the trend of economic growth is shifting towards non-European countries. 

The question remains: is it possible to do without Europe? Here it is important to immediately outline the boundaries of what kind of Europe we are talking about - Europe as part of the Euro-Atlantic bloc, claiming world hegemony. The answer to the question is not so obvious; it requires a deep look into the future.

The fact is that in the case of Eurasian integration based on BRICS, SCO, ECO and with the participation of North Korea, a relatively coherent paradigm of regional relations is obtained. Its success will, over time, push Europe toward cooperation, most likely on more equal terms than it currently has.

These circumstances necessitate, first and foremost, the need for the Eurasian world to overcome Europe’s claims to hegemony. A strong Eurasian economic bloc cannot go unnoticed and without being involved in the world economy.

The Greater Eurasian Partnership will take on new contours in the near future, write Kubatbek Rakhimov and Alexey Mikhalev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/between-iran-and-turan-or-new-horizons-of-the-grea/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Iran #Russia #China #Eurasia #BRICS

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🌏 The United States prefers not to swing the “sanctions baton” in Central Asia.

During the year, only a few companies were subjected to restrictions. None of the major local players were affected by the restrictions. Washington fears that more radical measures could embitter local elites and reduce Western influence in the region.

The conflict between the West and Russia, as well as the degradation of the system of international relations, have given the countries of Central Asia a chance to rethink their role in the world, build new relationships with each other and push for the economic development of the region, writes Grigory Mikhailov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/central-asia-competition-or-cooperation/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #CentralAsia #Eurasia #sanctions

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🌏 The heart of Asia will continue to beat in unison with Russia’s. 

Over the past 30 years, the Central Asian states have established independent political and economic ties throughout the world. Promising integration processes launched at the initiative of the President of Uzbekistan in 2017 have radically changed the atmosphere in the region. The united voice of Central Asia is increasingly heard on international platforms.

At the same time, being the geopolitical core of Eurasia and located between major world civilisational centres, Central Asia is an object of growing attraction for many powers and forces. This, among other things, confirms the growth of the 5+1 formats, which have no analogues in international relations.

The development of events convinces us that the goal of extra-regional players is to penetrate as deeply as possible into the Central Asian countries. Through the “Global Gate”, “Greater Central Asia” or other structures, they draw them into the orbit of Western values and strategic influence in order to use the region as a platform for their games against Russia and China.

Over the years of the countries’ independence, the five have determined their true friends. For example, it is quite acceptable to assert that the Russia-Central Asia-China connection is a completely tangible positive phenomenon of modern international life. 

It is important not to miss the strategic initiative, to strengthen all corners of this stable triangle, including within the framework of the SCO, writes Rashid Alimov, Professor at the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan and at the Taihe Institute (China), Doctor of Political Sciences, SCO Secretary-General (2016–2018).

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-space-of-the-former-ussr-lessons-from-the-past/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #VALDAI2023 #Eurasia

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🇷🇺🌏 So far, Moscow’s policy in its immediate circle is showing signs of such adaptability to inevitably changing conditions.

However, in order for this not to become just a form of retreat, which is delicate for our own pride, we have to solve several more important problems.

1️⃣ First, Russia will be faced with the question of how to find a relatively optimal combination of adaptability to changes that occur against our will, and consistent firmness where the problem is truly of fundamental importance.

2️⃣ Second, the general crisis of international institutions will inevitably force us to answer difficult questions in the case of those organisations whose condition now looks quite good. The aforementioned SCO, the Eurasian Economic Union or the CSTO — all of these organisations differ in their nature from Western institutions, which are built on the “leader — tribe” model. However, we still have no way of gauging the viability of organisations within which there is no strict disciplinary principle in the form of a patron power.

3️⃣ Finally, we do not yet know very well how to interact with medium- and small-sized neighbours when they find themselves in a crisis. So far, Greater Eurasia is a region with relatively established states capable of conducting responsible foreign policy. However, we must not forget that many of them in the coming years may face serious internal challenges.

In the coming years, Russia’s policy in the Eurasian space will most likely be aimed at avoiding excessive obligations, but at the same time strengthening relations with those countries that are really interested in cooperating with Moscow, as well as strengthening the influence of broad international institutions, particularly the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Such a strategy will have to meet Russia’s most important goals, which are internal in nature and consist of maintaining social stability, social harmony and economic growth, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/mideast-crisis/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Eurasia #Russia #MiddleEast

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🌏 The breakup of the Soviet Union in December 1991 was a big strategic shock that led to the fragmentation of a superpower into 15 hapless countries.

This ‘Black Swan’ event consequentially bolstered the ‘Pax Americana’, marked by an era of Uncle Sam’s unilateralism and pre-emption in world affairs. US assurances to dismantle NATO and facilitate Russia’s accommodation into Europe’s economic and security architecture remained mere lip service. Quite to the contrary, it began a new Cold War, which was manifest in the rapid eastern expansion of NATO and the European Union to amalgamate the Former Soviet Union States (FSUS) into the Western alliance’s ecosystem.

Foreign-backed ‘Colour Revolutions’ along Russia’s periphery and the abrogation of agreements such as the ABM, INF and ‘Eyes in the Sky’ treaties heightened Russia’s threat perception and deepened strategic mistrust between Russia and the US. The post-Soviet space has become an arena of big power contests.

New Delhi will navigate a polarised world through its multi-vector engagement, championing the cause of the Global South and seeking reforms in the UN Security Council and other international institutions, writes Major General (Ret.) B.K. Sharma, Director of the United Services Institution (India).

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/evolving-geopolitical-dynamics/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Eurasia #India #WorldOrder

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🛤️ Among the six main land routes, three pass through different regions of Eurasia, clearly indicating the role and place of Eurasia in this transit and transportation megaproject. 

The 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation was held between October 17 and 18 in Beijing, China. It marked the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

What were the results of the Belt and Road Initiative Summit for transport connectivity in Eurasia? In answering this question, the following key points are important.

1️⃣ First, the conflict in Ukraine, extensive Western sanctions against Russia and transit restrictions splitting Russia from the eastern European Union have had a direct and negative impact on the Northern Corridor of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

2️⃣ The second result of the 3rd Belt and Road Forum will be the strengthening of land and rail routes between China and Russia. Although China's transit and trade route to Europe is blocked from Russia amid the conflict in Ukraine, the volume of bilateral trade and transit between Russia and China has increased significantly.

3️⃣ The third result of the 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation will be China's investment in infrastructure and new transport and transit technology in Eurasia.

4️⃣ Finally, China's major challenge in advancing the Belt and Road Initiative in Eurasia will be coordinating and combining the goals and interests of this initiative with The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and also the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS.

China should be expected to be much more conservative and cautious in lending and investing during the second decade of the Belt and Road Initiative, writes Vali Kaleji.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/results-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-summit-for/

#ModernDiplomacy #China #Eurasia #BeltAndRoad

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🗣 2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣3️⃣ The year 2023 has shown that Greater Eurasia and Asia are, so far, resistant to negative external influences, which have had the most dramatic consequences in Europe and the Middle East.

There are no opposing military-political alliances in Asia and Eurasia, and the so-called “geopolitical fault lines” only exist in the imagination of especially impressible readers of American newspapers. This is due to peculiarities of the political culture there, but also to the general trends of international life at the present stage.

1️⃣ First, despite the fact that this macroregion has its own experience of severe interstate confrontation, turning to violent conflict as the go-to means of achieving goals is not a central part of the foreign policy culture here.

In other words, when the peoples of the West take arms and see conflict as the solution to difficult situations, the peaceful resolution of disputes is preferable for Asia and Eurasia.

2️⃣ Second, the associations of states emerging in Asia and Eurasia are not aimed at achieving aggressive goals in relation to third countries. They are primarily aimed at implementing the development goals of their members and maintaining their internal stability. Therefore, now in Asia and Eurasia there are no unions created to ensure a privileged position for their members in relation to the rest of the macroregion.

3️⃣ Third, within the macroregion there are no relatively large states that would act as “agents” of extra-regional actors. The only countries that may be an exception in this sense are Japan and South Korea.

Asia and Eurasia remain a space of cooperation, not competition, and the leading regional powers are able to achieve terms that would be comparatively fair for their smaller partners, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/asia-and-eurasia-in-2023-shaping-a-new-internation/

#valdai_year2023 #Asia_and_Eurasia #Eurasia #Asia

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🇷🇺🌏 It is now extremely important for Russia to build a strategy in Eurasia and beyond, regardless of how quickly the goals of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine are achieved, as well as the general objectives in the field of European security formulated officially at the end of 2021. 

Russia's Greater Eurasia’s strategy is formed under the influence of several basic factors.

1️⃣ First, it cannot develop in isolation from how Moscow sees a new, fairer international order. It is based on respect for international law and the sovereign equality of states, and does not allow exclusive opportunities for one state or group. Greater Eurasia, due to its geopolitical position, is the strongest material foundation of this order, since the states located there naturally consider the security of their neighbours as part of their own.

2️⃣ Second, cooperation in Greater Eurasia inevitably relies on the global structures of the new international order, among which the central place is occupied by BRICS, the expansion of which has become the most important international event of 2023. During its chairmanship of the group, Russia will have to consider, as a whole, issues related to the development of BRICS and the strengthening of international cooperation in Greater Eurasia.

3️⃣ Third, the movement of Greater Eurasia towards more intense internal integrity cannot and will never be able to be carried out within the framework of the leadership model characteristic of all international institutions of the past. In Greater Eurasia, three of the four most important powers of the modern world are located – Russia, India and China, each of which balances the others, which is a guarantee against the formation of an unequal model of relations.

4️⃣ Finally, painstaking work on the practical “interconnection” of different forms of institutional and informal interaction between the countries of the region will remain important for Russian policy in Greater Eurasia. The process of cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and China, which is promoting the Belt and Road initiative, still continues, the SCO agenda is becoming more diverse, and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation is occupying its unique niche. The task that will inevitably be present in the activities of Russian diplomacy is the “conjugation” of their national interests and the dynamics of the development of structured forms of international cooperation in a huge region.

It is important for Russian foreign policy to be adaptive and able to benefit not only itself, but also the future of Eurasia, as a space of equal strategic cooperation between sovereign states, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-greater-eurasia-and-modern-international/

#WiderEurasia #Eurasia #WorldOrder #GreaterEurasia #WorldMajority

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🧊 The Arctic is becoming one of the centres of international relations due to the dynamic changes taking place in the region.

The Arctic region has long been a subject of interest, primarily among the eight Arctic states — the United States of America, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Finland and Sweden. However, in recent years, non-Arctic states, primarily India and China, have increasingly been paying attention to this region.

The Arctic region is so attractive because it has significant oil and gas reserves, estimated at up to 90 billion barrels of oil and 1.7 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. These resources are becoming increasingly important as global energy demand increases. In addition to oil and gas, the Arctic also provides opportunities for infrastructure development, mining and tourism.

The region has an extensive transport network, including one of the most promising shipping routes — the Northern Sea Route, which is currently actively developing. As the Arctic ice melts, it is attracting the attention of an increasing number of international actors. As a result, the diversification of international logistics is leading to the construction of new ports and pipelines, and the region’s mineral resources, including rare earth metals and diamonds, are opening up opportunities for investment in the mining industry.

The Arctic and Eurasia are closely interconnected, since, on the one hand, the key participants in international interaction in the Arctic region historically have been countries geographically located on the Eurasian continent, and, on the other hand, the Arctic itself is of great importance for ensuring the security and well-being of the Eurasian powers, Irina Strelnikova writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-eurasian-aspect-of-arctic-cooperation/

#GreaterEurasia #Eurasia #Arctic

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