🇦🇫🇹🇯🇺🇿 Many experts on Afghanistan argue that without the permission of the Taliban, such extremist and terrorist groups will not violate the borders of the CIS member states, but the experience of the 90s suggests otherwise.

The recent events in Afghanistan have clearly shown once again that the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia should closely cooperate within such authoritative international regional organisations as the CSTO and the SCO in order to protect their sovereignty and national independence, writes Khudoberdi Kholiknazar, Director of the Center for the Study of Central Asia and China.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-afghan-threat-to-central-asia/

#Global_Governance #Afghanistan #Taliban

@valdai_club

🇺🇸🇦🇫 Biden, an experienced politician, took an important theme from the Republicans: “the end of forever wars”.

America’s image as a “responsible superpower” has faltered, but it is unlikely that American allies in other regions will learn from this story.

For Eurasia, the Taliban’s coming to power is fraught with not leaving, but returning the topic of combating terrorism to the current agenda, and the advanced American weapons left in Afghanistan hypothetically bring this struggle to a new technological level, writes Valdai Club expert Maxim Suchkov @postamerica.

#Conflict_and_Leadership #Afghanistan #Biden

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/biden-s-withrawal-from-afghanistan-consequences/

🇦🇫🇺🇸 We do not know if peace in Afghanistan becomes a reality. However, right now, for the first time in the past 40 years, internal political stabilisation in this country has the most solid foundation.

What the Taliban are doing or can do inside the country is not a reason for the general denial of their right to exist. The international context has changed, including in terms of the value dimension of politics and its role in making the most important decisions.

Strategically, the return of the radicals to power could lead to the stabilisation of the region, a significant decrease in the United States’ ability to influence its countries and the relative isolation of India, as the country that most closely connects its future with the West, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

#Global_Governance #Afghanistan

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-fall-of-kabul-and-the-balance-of-power/

🇺🇸🇦🇫 The war in Afghanistan is an extraordinary textbook on the American strategy that can be summed up as a growing up novel.

Inflated expectations, a sense of omnipotence, which, through a series of crises, gives way to deep disappointment and the overestimation of goals.

This painful experience for the United States was too expensive, but perhaps it will push it to become more sober in the future, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-war-in-afghanistan-as-a-textbook-on-us/

#Conflict_and_Leadership #Afghanistan #USA @valdai_club

🇦🇫🌏 NATO’s defeat in Afghanistan represents a wider defeat of the unipolar moment.

The US invaded Afghanistan as a response to terrorist attacks on September 11 2001, although Washington was somewhat open about the geopolitical objectives.

Since the beginning of the war, there was no shortage of analyses about how Afghanistan could be a bridgehead to assert US influence in the energy-rich Central Asian region and oust Russian and Chinese influence.

The offshore security strategy of both the UK and the US as de-facto island-states has throughout history been to prevent the emergence of a hegemon or collective hegemon in either Europe or Eurasia. In Europe, this entailed preventing a Russian-German alignment, and in the wider Eurasia it entailed obstructing a Russian-Chinese alignment. 

The fall of Kabul will have profound implications for Central Asia and wider Eurasia — presenting both risks and opportunities. The risks associated with the Taliban in control of Afghanistan can be construed as an opportunity to test and advance the Greater Eurasian Partnership, writes Valdai Club expert Glenn Diesen.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/central-asia-and-eurasia-after-the-fall-of-kabul/

#Global_Governance #Afghanistan #TalibanTakeover #USwithdrawal

@valdai_club

🇮🇷🇦🇫 Tehran has not yet worked out a solution and cannot answer the main question for itself: is it worth recognising the Taliban at all?

The capture of Kabul and the establishment of Taliban power over virtually the entire territory of Afghanistan have added another batch of headaches to Iran’s problems.

While Iran has officially welcomed the withdrawal of the Americans from its neighbour to the east, in reality, not everyone in Iran is delighted with the current situation, since they do not fully understand how to interact with the Taliban in Kabul and what, in principle, Iranian-Afghan relations will be like in the medium term, writes Valdai Club expert Farhad Ibrahimov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/iran-s-policy-toward-the-taliban/

#Morality_and_Law #Taliban #Iran #Afghanistan

@valdai_club

⛔️🇦🇫 Restrictive measures applied to the Taliban by the United States, the European Union now affect the country as a whole.

Any economic transactions with the country ruled by the Taliban are subject to a variety of restrictive measures. Such a situation could criminalise and simply paralyse official economic ties with Afghanistan.

The humanitarian damage to the population of the country, coupled with the hardships of the war, could be colossal, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

#Afghanistan #sanctions

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/afghanistan-in-the-grip-of-sanctions/

🇦🇫 What are the consequences of the emergence of the Taliban regime in the international arena?

At the first stage, the Taliban* will strengthen their power within the country. Any attempt to expand outside could cost them dearly, since it will cause a negative reaction from all neighbouring states. It will also deprive the Taliban of any chance at international recognition or foreign aid. Therefore, they can do this only in two cases: if the regime is on the verge of collapse and it needs an external enemy to rally the population around itself, or vice versa - the regime feels so sure that it embarks on a path of external expansion. Neither of these options is likely in the foreseeable future, writes Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University.

The Taliban's success will provide an important boost to other radical and extremist movements in the Muslim world.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/is-the-afghanistan-problem-really-global/

#Global_Governance #Taliban #Afghanistan

*banned in Russia

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🌏 The events in Afghanistan challenged the countries of Asia.

First of all, because they were largely on their own. Their responsibility, including globally, has grown dramatically. Now a very difficult and responsible period, the independent construction of a new Asian order, lies ahead.

The aforementioned rapid development of the region is an indisputable fact. Any development contains many risks and requires skilful manoeuvring in economic, political, social and other waters.

In recent years, Asian countries have advanced in this regard. The largest Asian countries are trying to create a kind of control grid for themselves and for other countries in the region. In general, there is a striving for coordinated development. Nevertheless, the path to a harmonious future Asia is definitely longer and more difficult, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/chairman-speech/contemporary-history/

📆 This and other issues we will discuss on September 20, 2021, in Tashkent, within the framework of the conference, titled “Russia and Uzbekistan in the Face of Development and Security Challenges at a New Historical Stage of Interaction”.

#Afghanistan #Uzbekistan #CentralAsia

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

❌🌎 What the West does not understand is that NATO is facing a historic end after the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Even if the West does not want to admit it, the terrorists responsible for the attacks of 9/11 exactly twenty years ago inflicted a historic defeat on the West and drove NATO out of the Middle East.

The aim of Bin Laden's diabolical plan was to lure the US into the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan in order to defeat it there in the gruelling petty war. The West is footing the bill for its mindless policies.

Instead of promoting democracy in the region, NATO has left behind a field of devastation. Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan have become failed states. Worse still, instead of Arab nationalism, the "Islamic State" will be resurrected on the territories of these countries – ideologically and militarily directed against the West. And much stronger than in Iraq at the time.

Who needs a highly armed military alliance that has been defeated by local Islamists?

The real lessons of 9/11 have yet to be learned, writes Alexander Rahr, Research Director of the German-Russian Forum.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/9-11-and-the-defeat-of-the-west/

#Conflict_and_Leadership #NATO #Afghanistan

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇦🇫🌏 The defeat and abrupt withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, coupled with the instant collapse of the regime it had built in that country, has raised the issue of ensuring security, both for Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours and for countries with serious interests in the region.

The alarming uncertainty surrounding Afghanistan is likely to last years or decades. During this time, the Afghan factor will have a decisive influence on regional security, pushing the states of the region to cooperate not only in the military sphere, but also in the economy and politics.

The main threat is the use of Afghanistan as a base to destabilise adjacent territories.

Given the evidently low level of centralisation of the new Afghan state, this could happen in spite of Kabul’s intentions, writes Valdai Club expert Vasily Kashin. He is a speaker of the second session of the Russian-Uzbek conference in Tashkent.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/afghanistan-and-regional-security-problems/

#Valdai_ThinkTank #Afghanistan #CentralAsia #security

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club