⚔️ The redistribution of power and influence in the world, along with the shifting power dynamics among major nations, has become the catalyst for extremely acute differences between them.

As these differences intensify, they engulf ideology, the economy, and scientific-technical and humanitarian ties. Factors that used to prevent major powers from escalation in the past are weakening. These countries are now facing a real threat of large-scale non-nuclear conflicts against comparable adversaries, for the first time since the 1960s.

The prevailing form of conflict between great powers will be proxy wars of a new type, namely, large conflicts in which a major nuclear power grants its client access to its information capabilities (satellite reconnaissance and targeting, communication infrastructure, etc.), as well as military technology and expertise, and, if necessary, carries out limited direct intervention in the conflict where it will not provoke nuclear escalation.

However, the threat of a direct military clash between great powers and nuclear war will persist and, perhaps, become even more acute than during the Cold War.

The key goal of diplomacy in this new world will be to develop a toolkit that will make it possible to endure decades of turbulence without nuclear bombardment. This can only be achieved within the framework of rigorous foreign policy realism, write the authors of a new Valdai Report, titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies.”

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/warfare-in-a-new-epoch-the-return-of-big-armies/

🎥 The presentation of the report took place on October 18. Watch the video recording on our website.

#ModernDiplomacy #valdai_report #ProxyWar #warfare #WorldOrder

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🗺️ In the new international environment, geopolitics is increasingly beginning to determine the structure of economic interaction in the world.

We are inside a large long-term political cycle that will last in different countries, political circles and national elites. There are estimates that the current geopolitical crisis will last at least several years: in open American sources, the top officials have specified a period of 6-7 years. This sets a certain predictability for the development of events, although it does not make the situation simpler.

Just a year ago, business circles in different countries found it difficult to come to terms with the fact that geopolitics now determines the global economy. We have seen energetic attempts to unite industrialists and entrepreneurs in European countries to challenge the political vector that their government has chosen.

In Germany we observed clear public disagreement with this course on the part of individual leaders of particular states, who are interested in interaction with Russia. However, this has not affected the general strategic vector of the German government, which runs counter to the opinion of the country’s own businesses; many believe this is suicidal for the German economy.

The United States feels comfortable in the current prolonged crisis. An extremely important American goal is to eliminate any impulses of autonomy on the European continent, which are expected mostly from the countries of Western Europe.

However, non-Western states, with interests which are different from those of Europe and the United States, are ready to come up with their own ideas about how this crisis should be resolved, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/who-is-better-prepared-for-a-long-geopolitical/

#ModernDiplomacy #geopolitics #WorldOrder

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UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will present its new report titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies.”

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239144

#ModernDiplomacy #valdai_report #ProxyWar #warfare #WorldOrder

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⚔️ Brave Old World: Wars and Historical Normality Without Rose-Coloured Spectacles

On October 18, the Valdai Club presented a report, titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies”. 

💬 The moderator was Andrey Sushentsov, programme director of the Club. He emphasised that the conflict in Ukraine refutes a concept that had prevailed for a long time, according to which modern warfare is a war with small forces, adding that it demonstrates the relevance of large military units. “War remains the same phenomenon that we have observed for centuries. The dominant view in recent years was an illusion,” he concluded.

💬 Co-author of the report Vasily Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, noted that the events in Ukraine illustrate that conflicts involving states are becoming larger in scale, pursuing more decisive goals and demonstrating the readiness of all players to make sacrifices that for a long time were considered impossible. This is due to the changing balance of power in the world. External crises are accompanied by internal ones. As a result, conflicts are escalating around the world. According to him, the big countries will have to return to the basics of military-economic planning that were generally accepted in the second half of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries.

💬 Lieutenant general (ret.) Evgeniy Buzhinsky, Chairman of the PIR Center Council, pointed out that when in the 2000s Russia suspended the CFE Treaty due to its inconsistency with modern realities, and the process of understanding the new situation began, the expert community spoke not about the scale and duration of conflicts, but about new categories of weapons. Tank battles and artillery duels in Europe seemed unthinkable. “The Ukrainian conflict has shown: the tanks are back, the artillery is back,” he said. According to Buzhinsky, in the next wars, whatever they may be, all current means of armed struggle will remain, but on a qualitatively new level.

💬 Gregory Simons, an independent expert from Sweden, drew parallels between the conflict in Ukraine and the Iran-Iraq war. In his opinion, Iraq was not a subject, but an object in the war and was forced to rely entirely on American support. Similarly, Ukraine is now not a subject, but an object against the backdrop of US attempts to block the movement towards a multipolar world. American politicians, ignoring the media rhetoric about moral confrontation, quite frankly say that they perceive this conflict as a means to wear Russia down.

💬 Dmitry Stefanovich @stratdela, a researcher at the Centre for International Security at IMEMO RAS, noted that the role of external support is important both in the current conflicts and in future conflicts. If this support is not stopped in one way or another, then the conflict can become extremely long-lasting. He also pointed to the high level of transparency in modern conflicts and the enormous amount of available data. However, how much this data helps one get the real picture is not clear: the data is too easy to manipulate. It is even difficult to say how to measure the potentials of the parties at war. In addition, Stefanovich raised the possibility of long-term support for the defence industry and big armies.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/brave-old-world-wars-and-historical-normality-without-rose-coloured-spectacles/

#ModernDiplomacy #valdai_report #ProxyWar #warfare #WorldOrder

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🌎 As our world progresses into a new world order described by some as “fair multipolarity”, we must acknowledge that such a transformation will not be met without resistance by the forces wishing to maintain a unipolar world order that is no longer sustainable. 

We can come to three important conclusions at this conjuncture: 
 
1️⃣ First, as long as the US uses unilateral coercive measures as a foreign policy tool, it will continue to employ them in attempts to control the energy market and to prevent competitors from having access to resources that could help them surpass US development in key areas. 

2️⃣ Second, there is a “new Washington consensus” promoted by US national security strategists directed at building back US technological leadership through public investment used to finance a military-industrial policy where access to oil is key. For this purpose, political and military pressures will be employed along with the sanctions toolkit. 

3️⃣ And finally, in light of this new policy, countries must build geopolitical alternatives that diminish US influence on energy markets and financial transactions.

It is through decisive and concerted action by the countries most affected by unilateralism that we can advance towards the global equilibrium that the world requires, writes Carlos Ron, Venezuela’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs for North America and President of the Simon Bolivar Institute for Peace and Solidarity Among Peoples.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-continuous-political-and-military-threats/

#ModernDiplomacy #multipolarity #Venezuela

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🇷🇺🇮🇳 Russian-Indian strategic cooperation has been successfully developing for many decades.

The foundation of the Russian-Indian partnership is mutual respect for the uniqueness of the civilizations of the two countries. We recognise the unique nature of the civilizational choice of our peoples and recognise the value of the special path that our countries have chosen. This attitude is a decreasing value in modern world politics, which seeks to standardise and unify all approaches to the interaction of countries, presenting them as identical billiard balls.

Moscow and New Delhi stand for strengthening national sovereignty and refusing to interfere in each other's affairs. Russia and India also mutually respect the interests of their partner in international relations, recognise their legitimacy, and share an emphasis on equality in relations with each other and with other countries.

This is especially important in an environment in which international relations are beginning to be determined by a narrow circle of countries that consider themselves to have the right to dictate their will. 

Our common interest in the formation of polycentricity and the preservation of strategic autonomy and subjectivity in an international environment that is constantly becoming denser, as well as our intentions not to yield to the pressure of external forces that call for the channelling of foreign policy strategy in a direction beneficial to them, should unite our countries, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club; Dean of the School of International Relations at MGIMO University.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-is-the-big-idea-of-russia-india-relations/

#ModernDiplomacy #Russia #India #BRICS

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🇵🇸 The recent crisis in Gaza was totally unexpected and confusing to the entire world, which was not prepared for the greater magnitude of escalation in the strategic region.

The impact of the conflict was more severe for North African countries, as they are already experiencing worsening economic and political crises. The region is struggling, with instability in Libya and chronic tension between Algeria and Morocco. Egypt has suddenly found itself facing a war on its borders, as it neighbours the two sides of the crisis, the Gaza Strip and Israel.

There is an urgent need for serious and active move from all countries to stop the war. The risks of a widening war are increasing. The burning fire must be extinguished before it turns into a regional or international war, a worst-case scenario that nobody wants to see happen, writes Nourhan ElSheikh.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/north-african-countries-and-the-palestinian-crisis/

#ModernDiplomacy #Palestine #GlobalSouth

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🇹🇷🇵🇸🇮🇱 In the aftermath of the breakout of the another regional crisis in the Middle East, Ankara was cautious before taking sides and called for an immediate ceasefire.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proactively sought a diplomatic solution by employing telephone diplomacy and dispatching Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the capitals in the region. Ankara’s message was clear: there is a need for a two-state solution, and the international community should work on a political framework after a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages between the parties. Ankara’s position reflects Turkey’s traditional foreign policy on the Palestinian issue, which it has maintained for decades.

AK Party officials, with President Erdogan at the helm, were careful to avoid bashing Israel and PM Benjamin Netanyahu as the humanitarian crisis deepened in the first two weeks. Instead, President Erdogan vocally questioned the increasing presence of the US military in the region, as aircraft carriers approached the Eastern Mediterranean, and called for humanitarian assistance to be allowed to be sent via the Rafah border. 

An incident at al-Ahli ignites a stark transformation in Ankara's diplomatic voice, revealing the deep undercurrents of ideology and domestic politics that could reconfigure regional alliances and reshape Turkey's geopolitical path, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/israel-hamas-conflict-shifting-discourses-Turkey/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #HAMAS #Israel

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🇩🇿 At the 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa, Algeria’s candidacy was not retained to join the 5-member grouping.

Six out of 23 candidates were chosen: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

While politically, Algeria is the ideal candidate, its economic standing might not have been attractive enough, at least not yet.

The pause before eventual membership in the BRICS at a later date should entice Algeria to accelerate long-overdue domestic reforms, reflect, innovate, and bolster efforts to position itself as an indisputable player on the global stage, write Yahia H. Zoubir and Xuanrong Wu.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/algeria-at-the-brics-doorstep/

#ModernDiplomacy #Algeria #BRICS

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🌏 Today, the centre of global economic gravity is inevitably shifting to the East.

Somewhat belatedly, the centre of political initiative will also shift to the East. This phenomenon will not be a short-term one, but it will become a determining process during the 21st century and, most likely, beyond.

The West is well aware of the inevitability of this process. Its pressure on the rest of the world, on the non-West, on Russia and on China is an attempt to slow down the shift to the East or to preserve Western initiative in the complex new world, and to achieve preferential terms of interaction with the rest of the world.

The fact that the West will become another region of the world on a par with others, an important and significant one, but not a global leader or hegemon, is the most important characteristic feature of the emerging order. The world in full is becoming uniformly dense, complex and influential. However, this process will take some time and will not happen overnight.

Americans view multipolarity as an unstable situation with a large number of risks and threats. From the Russian point of view, this understanding is erroneous. American actions, as the last 30 years have illustrated, lead to increased tension and the accumulation of contradictions that explode into military crises, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club; Dean of the School of International Relations at MGIMO University.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-crumbling-of-the-world-order-and-a-vision/

#ModernDiplomacy #WorldOrder #multipolarity

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