⏰ TODAY at 4:00 p.m. Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to the situation in the Middle East.

❓How far will Israel go in the fight against Hamas and Hezbollah?
❓Will Arab states unite to counter the threat?
❓Will Iran continue to follow the policy of “strategic patience”?

The participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Lebanon #MiddleEast #Iran #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah

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🎥 LIVE: at 4:00 p.m. Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to the situation in the Middle East.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239207

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Lebanon #MiddleEast #Iran #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah

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🗣 On October, 2, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the situation in the Middle East.

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Lebanon #MiddleEast #Iran #Israel #Hamas #Hezbollah

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🌍 Middle East Crisis: Can a New Round of Escalation Be Avoided?

On October 2, a discussion dedicated to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East was held at the Valdai Discussion Club. The event was moderated by Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

💬 Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Lebanon Alexander Rudakov noted that the country is at the intersection of almost the entire spectrum of Middle Eastern problems, suffering from ethno-confessional tensions, a profound economic and political crisis, an influx of refugees, and in the last year – from an armed confrontation with Israel, which has escalated into a local hybrid war since September. According to the diplomat, this conflict is more deadly and severe than the previous Lebanese-Israeli war, and apparently, this is not the end yet. “Lebanon is literally boiling,” he emphasised, adding that the only alternative to negative scenarios is an immediate ceasefire and negotiations with a diplomatic outcome, “whatever it may be.”

💬 Adviser to the President of Lebanon Amal Abou Zeid called Israel's actions a disregard for international law and an attack on all Lebanese. He pointed out the connection between the Middle East crisis and the Ukrainian one. In his opinion, both were the result of America’s desire to rule the world alone and dictate its rules to everyone else. “Lebanon is currently under attack. The Western community has remained completely deaf to its problems,” Abu Zeid said, adding that the country is currently in the same situation as the Gaza Strip. He also emphasised that further escalation of the conflict could, if it engulfs other countries, lead to World War III. 

💬 According to Ruslan Mamedov, Research Director of the Evgeny Primakov Centre for International Cooperation and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Middle East is currently undergoing a transformation of its security architecture, and its countries are seeking to secure their position in the future regional order. He noted that attempts to achieve a win-win situation associated with the signing of the Abraham Accords have failed. “Today, in 2024, we find ourselves in a situation between a zero-sum game and a lose-lose situation,” said Mamedov. The region is caught between Iran, which is trying to maintain the status quo, and Israel, which is seeking to expand its space. 

💬 Adlan Margoev, Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University, spoke about Iran’s role in what is happening. He noted that Iran’s behaviour as a whole appears predictable and that the Iranian leadership, whether “reformers” or “conservatives,” demonstrates a clear lack of interest in the conflict, reacting to any incidents with the utmost restraint. It can be said that the new Iranian administration is waiting for the American elections to resume dialogue on the Iranian nuclear programme and the lifting of sanctions, but, apparently, the main factor for Tehran is the desire to avoid a major new war similar to the Iran-Iraq war.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/middle-east-crisis-can-a-new-round-of-escalation-be-avoided/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Lebanon #MiddleEast

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🇸🇾 The recent offensive by Syrian rebels which took control of several cities, particularly the strategic city of Aleppo, is a new development that, although surprising, was not strange.

The Middle East region and Syria have many unresolved challenges that are capable of leading to a crisis and an uncertain future at any time under the influence of national, regional or international factors, writes Alireza Noori.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/borderless-manipulated-terrorism-in-syria/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Syria #MiddleEast

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On December 16 at 11:00 a.m., the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow will host a discussion on the situation in Syria.

The situation in Syria has changed rapidly and radically. After 24 years of rule, on December 8 Bashar al-Assad resigned as President of the Syrian Arab Republic. Meanwhile, the armed opposition occupied Damascus. The following day, the Israeli army moved eastward into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, Israel intends to maintain control over the region in the future.

Russia has played an active role in resolving the civil conflict in Syria in recent years, and these changes concern it directly. Russia is now in contact with all factions of the Syrian opposition, and is calling for a renunciation of the use of violence and the resolution of all issues through inter-Syrian inclusive negotiations with UN participation.

❓What led to the rapid regime change in Syria?
❓How can international organisations influence the normalisation of the situation?
❓What will the new Syrian government look like?
❓How will the role of external players involved in Syria change?
❓What are the goals and prospects of the Russian presence in Syria and the Middle East as a whole today?
❓To what extent will the Syrian changes affect the entire region?

The panellists will try to answer these and other questions.

🎙️ Speakers:

🔹 Vitaly Naumkin, Academic Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS, Professor, Full Member of the RAS

🔹 Jamil Qadri, leader of the Moscow platform of the Syrian opposition, secretary of the ‘People's Will’ party

🔹 Taha Özhan, Research Director, Ankara Institute

Moderator:

🗣 Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/situation-in-syria-valdai-discuss/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Syria #MiddleEast

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📆 TOMORROW, on December 16, at 11:00 a.m., the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow will host a discussion on the situation in Syria.

The situation in Syria has changed rapidly and radically. After 24 years of rule, on December 8 Bashar al-Assad resigned as President of the Syrian Arab Republic. Meanwhile, the armed opposition occupied Damascus. The following day, the Israeli army moved eastward into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, Israel intends to maintain control over the region in the future.

Russia has played an active role in resolving the civil conflict in Syria in recent years, and these changes concern it directly. Russia is now in contact with all factions of the Syrian opposition, and is calling for a renunciation of the use of violence and the resolution of all issues through inter-Syrian inclusive negotiations with UN participation.

🗣 For details follow this link

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Syria #MiddleEast

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⏰ TODAY at 11:00 a.m., the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow will host a discussion on the situation in Syria.

❓What led to the rapid regime change in Syria?
❓How can international organisations influence the normalisation of the situation?
❓What will the new Syrian government look like?
❓How will the role of external players involved in Syria change?
❓What are the goals and prospects of the Russian presence in Syria and the Middle East as a whole today?
❓To what extent will the Syrian changes affect the entire region?

The panellists will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Syria #MiddleEast

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🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 a.m. Moscow time, we are starting a discussion on the situation in Syria.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239241

#valdaiclub #Syria #MiddleEast

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🗣 On December 16, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion on the situation in Syria.

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

#valdaiclub #Syria #MiddleEast

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💢 Syria: Origins of the Crisis and Future Prospects

On December 16, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion devoted to the situation in Syria. Fyodor Lukyanov, the discussion moderator, called the events in the country extremely dramatic and emphasised that the very speed at which the regime in the country dematerialised was indicative of a new type of change of power, even for the turbulent modern history of the Middle East.

💬 Academician Vitaly Naumkin, Academic Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated that the element of surprise was quite high, although Turkey and Qatar were clearly ready for it. Speaking about the consequences and identifying questions that have not yet been answered, he noted that the Kurds suffered the most, in addition to Bashar al-Assad’s supporters. “The Kurdish factor is dramatically changing its place in the balance of power,” the expert believes. “The question is whether the Americans continue to support the Kurds.” The main beneficiaries of what is happening are Israel and Turkey, but it is not entirely clear what they want, and in this context, the question of buffer zones, in particular in the Golan Heights, remains quite important.

💬 Jamil Qadri, the leader of the Moscow Platform of the Syrian opposition and secretary of the People’s Will party, called for an understanding of what is happening by turning to the past and analysing the origins of the crisis systematically. He sees an important factor in the fact that Syria has been living under a one-party system for 75 years, with power in the hands of the security forces. Syrian leaders probably had no other choice, given the underdevelopment of the political system, but this does not change the problems generated by this approach. Bashar al-Assad ignored Russia’s recommendations to hold a political dialogue. As a result, over 80 percent of the population was discontented, which directly affected the army’s unpreparedness to fight.

💬 Taha Özhan, Director of the Research Institute in Ankara, sees the fall of the Assad regime as the culmination of a long-term crisis: the authorities had failed to manage the country and actively resorted to repression, while actually controlling only a small part of the territory, and many Syrians became refugees or internally displaced persons. “The collapse of the regime was accompanied by eleven years of agony and eleven days of struggle,” he summarised. This led to the formation of a political vacuum that requires a pragmatic settlement. A recalibration of the positions of Russia, Iran, the United States and Turkey in the region is necessary.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/syria-origins-of-the-crisis-and-future-prospects/

#Syria #MiddleEast

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