🇦🇲🇦🇿 The exodus of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 was the final chapter in the 35-year history of the Karabakh movement.

Most citizens of the then Soviet Union learned about it in February 1988 – after an extraordinary session of people’s deputies of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region addressed the Supreme Soviets in Moscow, Yerevan and Baku with a request to consider the issue of transferring the region from the Azerbaijan SSR to the Armenian SSR.

Despite the sensitive defeats during the “first” Karabakh war of 1991-1994, Azerbaijan never hid its ultimate goal of gaining complete control over the lost territories through political-diplomatic or military means, strengthening the army and other security forces, as well as forming a favourable political and diplomatic background for itself.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan restored military and administrative control over the entire territory of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which, in accordance with the decree of its last president Samvel Shahramanyan, ceased to exist on January 1, 2024.

The multidirectional geopolitical interests of regional and external players, which directly influence the difficult socio-political transformations in the region, keep us from being optimistic about the rapid transformation of the South Caucasus into a zone of peace – even if some document on the normalisation of relations between Baku and Yerevan has formally acquired legal status, Andrei Areshev writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/azerbaijan-armenia-can-the-south-caucasus-become/

#WiderEurasia #SouthCaucasus #NagornoKarabakh #Armenia #Azerbaijan

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On January 23, 2025, at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and Russia’s policy in the South Caucasus.

After the Karabakh conflict, the situation in the South Caucasus remains quite tense and unstable. Armenia and Azerbaijan are currently in dialogue on the peace treaty parameters. Within its framework, on January 16, the parties agreed to begin work on delimiting the border. But the Azerbaijani and Armenian authorities continue to exchange accusations and harsh statements.

Sometimes Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia also become complicated. This concerns, in particular, the prospects for Armenia’s participation in the CSTO and the EAEU, as well as the policy of integration with the European Union proclaimed by Yerevan. The recent tragedy with the AZAL airliner, which led to significant coverage in the media, became a test of relations with Azerbaijan.

❓What are the prospects for concluding a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
❓How realistic is it to fulfil the peace conditions put forward by the two countries’ leaders?
❓What is the state of Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Armenian relations?
❓How are Russia’s interests and policies in the Caucasus changing in the context of increased interest in the region from other external players?

The participants in the discussion will address these and other issues.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇷🇺 Sergey Markedonov, Leading Researcher, Center for Euro-Atlantic Security, Institute of International Studies, MGIMO, Russian Foreign Ministry

🇦🇲 Alexander Iskandaryan, Director, Caucasus Institute (Yerevan)

🇷🇺 Nikolai Silaev, Leading Researcher, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO, Russian Foreign Ministry

🇷🇺 Kamran Gasanov, Senior Lecturer, Department of Theory and History of Journalism, Philological Faculty, RUDN University

Moderator:

🗣 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director, Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-armenian-azerbaijani-relations-and-russia-s-policy/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen.

#WorldMajority_WorldOrder #Caucasus #SouthCaucasus #Armenia #Azerbaijan

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🇦🇲🇦🇿🇬🇪 The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, along with their future relations, could be reshaped within a new international political framework following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

In contrast to other regions and countries, the Caucasus may not be a primary focus within the broader scope of US global strategy. However, the Caucasus region plays a significant role that reflects its unique characteristics. 

Given the region’s proximity to critical US interests, such as Russia and Iran, and the high sensitivity of Caucasian states to the policies of major powers, coupled with the ongoing volatility in the regional landscape, it is essential to analyse the latest developments from an internal, regional perspective, writes Shi Jing, Assistant Professor at the Institute for International and Area Studies, Tsinghua University.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/new-dynamics-in-the-south-caucasus-after-the-us/

#EurasiaFuture #Valdai_NewGeneration #SouthCaucasus #Armenia #Azerbaijan #Georgia

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📆 TOMORROW, January 23, 2025, at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and Russia’s policy in the South Caucasus.

❓What are the prospects for concluding a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
❓How realistic is it to fulfil the peace conditions put forward by the two countries’ leaders?
❓What is the state of Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Armenian relations?
❓How are Russia’s interests and policies in the Caucasus changing in the context of increased interest in the region from other external players?

The participants in the discussion will address these and other issues.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen.

#WorldMajority_WorldOrder #Caucasus #SouthCaucasus #Armenia #Azerbaijan

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🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting an expert discussion dedicated to the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and Russia’s policy in the South Caucasus.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239245

#WorldMajority_WorldOrder #Caucasus #SouthCaucasus #Armenia #Azerbaijan

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🇦🇲🇦🇿 Media Storms and Maximalist Bar: International Relations in the South Caucasus

On January 23, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and Russia’s policy in the South Caucasus. The discussion was moderated by Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

💬 Nikolay Silaev, Leading Researcher at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University, called for the media agenda to be separated from the diplomatic one and for focus to not be fixated on intermittent “media storms”, but on the constant factors that influence relations in the region. He noted that in recent years, Azerbaijan had enjoyed certain diplomatic achievements, and one of them was the exclusion of mediators from negotiations with Armenia. At the same time, the parties are still far from concluding a peace treaty.

💬 Kamran Gasanov, Senior Lecturer of the Department of Theory and History of Journalism of the Philological Faculty of Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, believes that the obstacles to the conclusion of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan are gradually being removed. The issue of border delimitation remains an obstacle, which is being dealt with very slowly. The issue of territorial claims has not yet been resolved, but some progress has been noticeable. Gasanov believes that Russia’s positions in the South Caucasus are currently strengthening. The current dynamics in relations with Georgia can be considered evidence of this.

💬 Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, pointed out that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which has long ceased to be called the “Karabakh conflict” and has a much broader nature, has not yet come to an end, and the peace process, in fact, has not moved forward. The preparation of a peace treaty, despite all the optimistic statements of diplomats, is actually stalling, beset by political rather than legal problems. The conflict continues, albeit not on the battlefield.

💬 “The problem with the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict until the last moment was that the parties themselves did not want a settlement. They wanted a victory, a maximalist bar,” said Sergei Markedonov, leading researcher at the Centre for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University. In his opinion, the new status quo is simply a change in the positions of the parties – the losers give in, the winners make a show and go on. “The conflict continues precisely because the parties themselves do not see a compromise settlement,” he is convinced.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/media-storms-and-maximalist-bar/

#WorldMajority_WorldOrder #Caucasus #SouthCaucasus #Armenia #Azerbaijan

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