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🏷🛢 After prolonged elite discussions (and disagreements) within Western executives, the EU, the G-7 and Australia decided to cap the purchases of Russian seaborne oil to $60 per barrel.

Ukraine itself – not to mention Poland – argues that the West should stop purchasing hydrocarbons from Russia altogether, further privileging the sale of expensive American LNG to Europe. This is a false debate and a wrong policy.

The debate is false for multiple reasons, three of which stand out:

1️⃣ First, American LNG is not enough to fuel Europe’s economic and social infrastructure.

2️⃣ Second, LNG imports require construction of special tankers and terminals, which Europe has just start building.

3️⃣ Third, Russia has already begun diversifying its crude oil and gas exports to Asian markets, especially China and India, making new agreements and building new pipelines.

The USA, looking after its own self-interest, protects its economy from global inflationary trends, whereas, on the other, Russia turns to China, India and even Turkey to substitute for its relative loss of the European energy markets. No doubt, the big loser of the Ukraine conflict is the EU, writes Valdai Club expert Vassilis Fouskas.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-russian-predicament/

#EconomicStatecraft #energy #energycrisis #pricecap

@valdai_club
🚧 The three-year period of 2020-2022 has transformed the landscape of the global gas market. 

▪️ 2020 was marked by a global recession and a decrease in gas consumption due to widespread anti-COVID restrictions.

▪️ In 2021, there was a “perfect storm” of a price crisis in the EU gas market.

▪️ In 2022, the galloping increase in gas prices in the EU continued against the backdrop of Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine.

▪️ Unfriendly countries imposed sanctions on the Russian Federation, and the Russian Federation took countermeasures. As a result, Russian gas supplies to the EU were significantly curtailed.

▪️ In September 2022, the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines were destroyed in a terrorist attack.

The restructuring of the world gas market has begun (both in the regional and global dimensions), which will take years and lead to accelerated growth in the share of LNG in the world natural gas trade.

The changes that have begun in the global gas market fit into the process of transformation of the entire system of international relations and international trade.

This will result in a new structure emerging for the global gas market and a possible adjustment of the positions of key gas producers and consumers on a number of energy development issues, writes Evgeny Tipailov, Executive Director of the Institute for Problems of Interdependence.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/global-gas-market-a-new-state-of-aggregation/

#EconomicStatecraft #energy #gas

@valdai_club
💡🌏 Today, the global energy order that emerged after the energy crisis of the 1970s is undergoing structural changes.

It happens under the influence of energy transition policies, geopolitical conflicts, and the transformation of traditional economic relations; access to energy resources can be determined within the narrow framework of strategic and even military alliances.

These times of great upheaval present new challenges and opportunities for the Energy Club of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The key challenge for SCO member states and associate partners is how to turn the organisation’s Energy Club into an effective institutional body for harmonising their energy strategies and strengthening energy security, given the rapidly changing global energy architecture.

In the context of the transformation of the global energy order, the issue of increasing the role of the SCO Energy Club in managing energy processes at various levels is more acute than ever, writes Shamil Yenikeyeff, Professor, School of International Affairs, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, Higher School of Economics.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-sco-energy-club-in-the-changing-global-energy-/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #energy #gas #oil #ШОС

@valdai_club
🌍 Africa has impressive subsoil reserves and significant potential for producing energy.

However, African countries are facing a number of problems.

1️⃣ First, there is unequal access to energy sources. About 600 million Africans have no access to electricity.

2️⃣ Second, they are short of qualified fuel-and-energy experts.

3️⃣ Third, the infrastructure of the fuel-and-energy sector is underdeveloped (insufficient energy processing capacities, networks and hydropower stations).

Energy security issues are acquiring special importance for African nations due to the complicated international situation. Technological advancement and boosting investment in energy projects also remain important challenges.

Russian companies ready to offer energy projects designed to help friendly African countries reinforce their technological sovereignty along the entire competence chain, from capacity building to setting up enterprises in Africa, as well as enable their African partners to blend into manufacturing and logistics chains in Russia and elsewhere, writes Igbal Guliyev, Deputy Director of the MGIMO International Institutу for Energy Policy and Diplomacy.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-africa-energy-cooperation-challenges-and-prospects/

#EconomicStatecraft #Africa #energy

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🇮🇹 In 2022–2023 the Italian Republic, like a number of other European countries, faced the sharp problem of diversifying energy supplies.

Winter 2022–2023 was extremely mild in Europe, which helped to prevent an aggravation of the energy crisis, but the situation continues to be quite serious.

During the premiership of Mario Draghi in Italy, a plan was launched to diversify energy supplies with the aim of gradually phasing out Russian gas, which is being replaced primarily by LNG, Algerian, Azerbaijani and Northern European gas. The government of Giorgia Meloni continues to follow this plan, with the declared goal of completely eliminating dependence on Russian gas by the winter of 2024-2025.

In fact, the refusal of Italy to us Russian supplies is postponing the “green transition” in the country, since the economic component does not allow the government to give it any preference.

The Italian Republic seeks to establish itself in two of the most important roles chosen for itself: an active independent actor in international relations and an important member of the pan-European home, consistently upholding the basic values of the EU.

Time will tell how successful such a “two chairs” policy can be, writes Svetlana Gavrilova, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science and Political Philosophy at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/italy-s-new-energy-policy-national-interests/

#EconomicStatecraft #Italy #energy #GreenTransition

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🌏 Central Asia is now home to about 75 million people. In 2022 and 2023, they all faced the threat of a large-scale crisis in the energy sector and the fresh water supply.

This is not a coincidence; both of these crises are connected with each other. Water shortages are not only a result of climate change, but also a consequence of the outdated hydropower system, with its seasonal water releases. 

The likelihood of similar large-scale and destructive hydro-conflicts in Central Asia, which are only a subtype of the so-called climate wars, is very high today. Disputes over climate and environmental responsibility greatly complicate regional dialogue. As a result, geopolitical decisions can serve as a means of exiting the current situation.

It is obvious that Russia can become a leader here, promoting initiatives in the field of nuclear energy around the world, including small nuclear power plant projects, write Kubatbek Rakhimov and Alexey Mikhalev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/in-search-of-hydro-saving-technologies/

#Norms_and_Values #CentralAsia #energy #water

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🇪🇺 The European Union’s Green Deal must be criticised for three reasons:

▪️ it is dogmatic, because it does not provide for alternative scenarios;

▪️ it is economically highly problematic, because it burdens industry in Europe with costs and uncertainties and therefore restricts its international competitiveness;

▪️ it is technologically immature and unrealistic: neither the market-ready technologies nor the financial means to implement the Commission’s goal of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050 are available.

Pursued under the concept of the Green Deal, the energy transition has been one of the strongest and most damaging factors influencing the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany, and therefore the economy of Europe. This policy is primarily being pursued by Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission and Olaf Scholz’s cabinet.

Any measure that hinders the supply of affordable energy to Europe, such as the continuation of sanctions or a premature withdrawal from long-term gas supply contracts, will cause massive damage to the European economy and set the EU back by years, if not decades, Ulrike Reisner writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-dark-side-of-brussels-energy-policy-the-green/

🖇️ Earlier this year, we published the first and the second part of this analysis.

#GlobalAlternatives #EU #energy

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On October 18 at 11:00 a.m. Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host a presentation of the new report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order” on the eve of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. 

At the meeting in Nizhny Novgorod as part of the current Russian chairmanship, the BRICS foreign ministers agreed to develop mutual energy cooperation. In a joint statement, they emphasised that universal access to energy resources is the most important foundation for economic development, social stability, national security and the well-being of all countries.

How will joining the community of Middle Eastern powers change the balance of power in the energy market?
What are the prospects for BRICS consolidation in energy?
What role will the energy agenda play at the upcoming summit in Kazan?

The author of the report and the participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇷🇺 Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director General for Gas Problems of the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) (author of the report)

🇮🇳 Nivedita Das Kundu, Professor, Faculty of International Relations, Uzbekistan State University of World Languages  

Moderator:

🗣 Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-present-a-report-brics-energy-a-mover-for-the-new-world-order/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please 
fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the 
website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #BRICS #energy

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🔋 Even in the original five-country format, BRICS looked like a formidable energy conglomerate.

It included the world’s largest hydrocarbons exporter (Russia) and the largest consumer of energy resources (China). After the expansion on January 1, 2024, the group emerged as a real energy giant.

With the addition of the three hydrocarbon powers, BRICS now holds about 40 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and more than 50 percent of gas reserves. On the demand end, the group accounts for 47 percent of the planet’s primary energy consumption, almost 50 percent above that of the G7 countries (including the European Union).

It is a hard fact that the centre of energy consumption is shifting from the developed countries, united under the G7 brand, to the so-called ‘emerging markets.’ But the scale of that transformation over the last thirty years has been truly monumental, writes Alexey Grivach, the author of a new #valdai_report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order”.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/brics-energy-a-mover-for-the-new-world-order/

The presentation of the report will take place today at 11:00 a.m. Moscow time. Watch the live broadcast on our website.

📑 Report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order” in PDF

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #BRICS #energy

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🗣 On October 18, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation of the new report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order” on the eve of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. 

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

📑 Report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order” in PDF

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #BRICS #energy #valdai_report

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🤝🔋 Energy Cooperation within BRICS: Revolutionary Resistance

On October 18, on the eve of the BRICS summit in Kazan, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation of a report titled “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order.”

💬 Ivan Timofeev, the moderator of the discussion, noted that although the BRICS agenda is quite broad, energy occupies a special place in the group’s agenda, since Russia is the largest supplier of energy resources, and India, China, and Brazil are dynamically growing economic giants that need larger volumes of supplies. The international situation is also favourable for expanding energy cooperation between the group’s countries.

💬 Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director General for Gas Problems of the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) and author of the report, pointed out that the centre of energy development is shifting toward the Global South, particularly the Asia-Pacific region and the BRICS countries. More than thirty years ago, the "collective West" thought that it had won once and for all and that history had ended. However, life has shattered this illusion, and now the BRICS countries are defending their positions in the world. The rate of economic growth in most BRICS countries is also higher than in the West.

In addition, BRICS is a serious energy conglomerate, which has further strengthened its position after expansion. Electricity production, which can be considered a measure of economic power, has grown in the group's countries almost five-fold. He added that in the context of sanctions pressure, the BRICS countries and all countries that want to develop without heeding the dictates of the West are faced with the task of building infrastructure, institutions, and instruments for energy trade. “Our resistance must grow, and this should become one of the main areas of BRICS’ work,” the author of the Valdai Club report believes.

💬 Nivedita Das Kundu, Professor at the Faculty of International Relations at the Uzbekistan State University of World Languages, briefly outlined India’s approach to energy cooperation within BRICS. In her opinion, the topic of the report is “very significant.” The global balance of power is now shifting towards developing economies, and this affects the political and geostrategic situation around the world, she said. Energy cooperation among BRICS member countries serves to break the Western monopoly and hegemony and advances the multilateral agenda. Das Kundu acknowledged that the BRICS group has now adopted a certain anti-Western attitude, and this raises certain concerns for India, which fundamentally adheres to a neutral position and does not want to join the blocs. However, she called the emergence of BRICS+ a good step that facilitates the transition to a new world order.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/energy-cooperation-within-brics-revolutionary-resistance/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #BRICS #energy #valdai_report

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🔋 Energy for the Global South

The Global South is the socio-economic and political definition used to describe developing countries. These states are rich in a wide variety of resources, both fossil and renewable. The leaders in electricity generation among the Global South are China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Mexico. However, there are constraints to the development of green energy. You can find out which ones and how these challenges are being addressed in our infographic.

#valdai2024 #valdai_infogaphics #energy #GlobalSouth

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