🇹🇷 Relations with Russia would be one of the key issues for Turkey as multipolarity gains momentum, but Ankara’s foreign adventures would go beyond.

For example, it is more likely than not that Turkey will continue with its search for possibilities and benefits in the emerging multipolar world. It will probably carry on a doubling down of its interest in the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and it will lead, as much as it can, the Organisation of the Turkish States, because numerous factors seem to dictate this multi-faceted and multi-dimensional foreign policy.

All evidence suggests that now, following his victory in the fiercely-contested election, Erdogan will navigate through its own route because this is roughly what the country’s prerequisites dictate. It is true that had the utterly pro-Western opposition won the elections they would have endeavoured to alter Turkey’s course, but even they would have found it quite difficult, if not impossible, to do so, without causing havoc in Ankara’s overall foreign relations. 

Although it seems certain that Ankara will be engaged more and more in multilateral policy in the emerging multipolarity, what needs to be borne in mind is that Turkey will have to do all this while remaining in NATO.

Turkey is not and will not be fighting for multipolarity to prevail but it will/would be set to benefit from that, writes Hasan Ünal.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-should-we-make-of-erdogan-s-latest-moves/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey

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🌾 The Ukrainian Grain Deal after Russia’s Withdrawal: A Peace Bridge or a Gordian Knot in the Black Sea?

The situation underscores that Russia's decision to pull out of the grain deal extends beyond mere financial considerations. Although current sanctions have constrained Russia's export agility, their impact remains limited. However, the Kremlin contends that the agreement primarily serves Ukraine's interests, with commitments made to Moscow being sidelined. Within this context, Moscow's demands were consistent with the July 2022 framework. 

The prevailing narrative from Russia indicates a preference for tangible actions over suggested alternatives as a condition for re-engaging in the grain deal. In this equation, Turkey and the UN Secretary-General emerge as potential mediators to persuade Russia. 

President Erdogan underlines the importance of the grain deal, which he calls “the peace bridge.” Thus, the reinstatement of this deal would bolster Turkey's global reputation and further its economic interests, writes Hasan Selim Özertem.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-grain-deal-after-russia-s-withdrawal/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #graindeal

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🇹🇷 The new presidential term of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who won the elections on May 28, 2023, fully reflects the key trends in Turkey’s political transformation over the past decade.

📍The most noticeable is the large-scale and consistent consolidation in the hands of the president of monopoly control over all branches of power

📍The dismantling of institutional checks and balances on presidential power, both on the part of state institutions and civil society

📍Desecularisation of public life in Turkey in general, especially in the sphere of education  

📍The offensive foreign policy, with the deepening of its militarisation and de-Westernisation 

On the way to his third presidential term, Erdoğan faced the biggest political challenge of his career. The rapid economic growth that characterised his early years at the head of Turkey gave way to a long-term financial and economic crisis. The Turkish lira over the past five years has depreciated more than five sixths against the dollar and the euro, losing more than 38% in the aftermath of the elections. 

Erdoğan and his supporters will have to seriously prepare for the municipal elections in the spring of 2024, in which the AKP plans to regain control of the largest cities – the capitals Ankara and Istanbul, as well as Antalya.

The municipal elections scheduled for March 2024 will be another major electoral test for Erdoğan. The president considers them “decisive” and regards them as a kind of vote of confidence, Pavel Shlykov writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/erdogan-s-new-term-what-changes-in-turkish-policy/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Turkey #Erdoğan

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🇹🇷🇵🇸🇮🇱 In the aftermath of the breakout of the another regional crisis in the Middle East, Ankara was cautious before taking sides and called for an immediate ceasefire.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proactively sought a diplomatic solution by employing telephone diplomacy and dispatching Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the capitals in the region. Ankara’s message was clear: there is a need for a two-state solution, and the international community should work on a political framework after a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages between the parties. Ankara’s position reflects Turkey’s traditional foreign policy on the Palestinian issue, which it has maintained for decades.

AK Party officials, with President Erdogan at the helm, were careful to avoid bashing Israel and PM Benjamin Netanyahu as the humanitarian crisis deepened in the first two weeks. Instead, President Erdogan vocally questioned the increasing presence of the US military in the region, as aircraft carriers approached the Eastern Mediterranean, and called for humanitarian assistance to be allowed to be sent via the Rafah border. 

An incident at al-Ahli ignites a stark transformation in Ankara's diplomatic voice, revealing the deep undercurrents of ideology and domestic politics that could reconfigure regional alliances and reshape Turkey's geopolitical path, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/israel-hamas-conflict-shifting-discourses-Turkey/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #HAMAS #Israel

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🇹🇷🇮🇱 The IDF's Operation Iron Swords in the Gaza Strip is exceptional in its scale and duration, as well as due to numerous associated consequences, including Turkey’s decision to suspend trade ties with Israel.

In early April of this year, the Turkish Ministry of Trade suspended 54 categories of goods from being exported to Israel, ranging from construction materials to aviation fuel. Ankara said the introduction of restrictions had been motivated by the “gross violations of international law” the IDF had committed during Operation Iron Swords, and declared a ceasefire as a condition for the lifting of sanctions. In the first days of May, citing the same reasons, Turkish authorities announced a complete cessation of export and import transactions with Israel.

A new round of disagreements between the two states risks aggravating the internal political situation in Israel and its position in the system of international economic relations. Additionally, it signals that the Israeli leadership has not sufficiently elaborated its regional strategy, despite the country’s desire to continue normalisation with its neighbours, writes Elizaveta Yakimova.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/trade-adversaries-the-impact-of-the-idf-military/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Turkey #Israel

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🇹🇷🌏 Over the past years, Turkey has been successfully fostering unity among Turkic-speaking peoples, and receiving economic and political dividends.

The Central Asian states gained independence more than thirty years ago and the region has largely remained outside the field of vision of the Western powers, which recognise it as being within Russia’s sphere of influence. However, this region has great mineral resources and infrastructure potential, which makes it a testing ground for diplomatic battles involving new political players.

Obviously, now it is the perfect time to redistribute spheres of influence in this region, because Russia is busy addressing the Ukraine crisis, and the majority of the population of Central Asia is a generation that grew up after the fall of the Soviet Union and is free of its cultural influence. Thanks to this, Turkey has an undeniable advantage there, which it certainly uses.

By promoting the idea of a shared past helps to establish relationships in completely different areas, Turkey is penetrating into the areas of defence, energy and culture, becoming a real counterweight to Russia, Anna Machina writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-challenge/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Turkey #CentralAsia

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