🌍 Middle Eastern Conflicts: Emotional and Rational

On February 8, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted the presentation of a new report: “Gaza. Yemen. Epicentres of pain. Feelings, myths and memory in the Middle East” on the eve of the 13th Middle East Conference.

💬 Discussion moderator Andrey Sushentsov noted that despite some positive trends emerging in 2023, the escalation of tension in the region continues to increase. Against this background, he proposed to discuss the emotional aspect of conflicts in the Middle East - the role of feelings, myths, and memory in them.

💬 “It would be unfair to say that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict suddenly splashed onto the surface of world politics: it never left it,” noted Vitaly Naumkin, an academician at the Russian Academy of Sciences, scientific director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences who was one of the authors of the Valdai Club report. “Without resolving this conflict, nothing good will happen in the Middle East,” he emphasised. He named the unprecedented explosion of violence and the Palestinian indignation, as well as the emergence of Yemen as a new player in the conflict. Speaking about the report, Naumkin indicated that it covers not only rational approaches to the conflict, but also symbolic and emotional ones, affecting its basis of identity.

💬 Normalisation between Israel and the Arab countries cannot on its own solve the Palestinian issue, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had hoped, said Mustafa Barghouti, Secretary General and Co-Founder of the Palestinian National Initiative. Barghouti added that Netanyahu has built his career on destroying opportunities for an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement, including the Oslo accords. As a result, Israel has become greatly radicalised, both at the level of political parties and in terms of popular sentiment, and it is now strongly opposed to compromises. In turn, Hamas, according to Barghouti, has also changed, moving towards nationalism, although remaining an Islamic movement. He also pointed out the serious gap between the position of the Arab population and their governments regarding what is currently happening in the Gaza Strip, which entails potentially serious consequences for these countries.

💬 Sergey Serebrov, senior research fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, briefly outlined the situation in Yemen. In his opinion, Yemen can be seen both as a separate epicentre of the conflict (a civil war has been going on there since 2015) and as part of a larger picture. Events in the Palestinian-Israeli zone have taken the Yemeni conflict in a new direction. What is happening could become “a ticking bomb for the entire region,” Serebrov emphasised. He noted that the Houthis have not blocked shipping as such, but only Israeli cargo. A real threat to shipping was created by the activities of the American-British coalition, apparently aimed at establishing and consolidating dominance in the Red Sea.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/middle-eastern-conflicts-emotional-and-rational/

#MiddleEastValdai #valdai_report #MiddleEast

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🎥 LIVE: at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host the presentation of its new report, “Charting the 2040: Younger Generation Insight on the World in the Making”, timed to coincide with the Club’s Youth Conference as part of the World Youth Festival.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239175

#ValdaiYouth #valdai_report

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🗣 On February 28, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted the presentation of its new report, “Charting the 2040: Younger Generation Insight on the World in the Making”, timed to coincide with the Club’s Youth Conference as part of the World Youth Festival.

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 If you missed the live broadcast, follow this link to watch the video.

#Valdai_NewGeneration #ValdaiYouth #valdai_report

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🌐 From 'Global Disorder' to Multipolarity

On February 28, 2024, the Valdai Club presented a new report titled “Charting the 2040: Younger Generation Insight on the World in the Making”, timed to coincide with the Club’s Youth Conference on the sidelines of the World Youth Festival in Sochi. The moderator of the discussion was Andrey Sushentsov, programme director of the Valdai Club. 

💬 Nikita Neklyudov, Lecturer at the Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems at MGIMO University, spoke about the creation of the report and listed its main provisions. The report is based on a series of brainstorming sessions which focused on a number of key trends. These include issues such as future transformations of state sovereignty, the global economy and the architecture of globalisation, as well as prospects for technological development and the future of economic blocs and international institutions.

💬 Adlan Margoev, Lecturer at the Department of Oriental Studies at MGIMO University, outlined the authors’ views on the development of the international order. After World War II, the parade of sovereignties began. The new states sought to play an active role, including through international cooperation. This was combined with the search for some kind of universal model for the whole world. As a result, a bipolar system emerged, complemented by the Non-Aligned Movement. With the collapse of the socialist bloc, a vacuum was created, which was quickly filled by the liberal capitalist system. Against this background, some states willingly delegated their sovereignty, and as a result, the “global empire scenario” (unipolar moment) was realised. However, a series of crises pushed the most active states to seek support within themselves, which gave rise to a “scenario of global disorder.” The logical way out of this situation is to strengthen the role of those states that are ready to convert national resources into influence in the international arena. As a result, a group of such states will be able to form a multipolar world with new rules, norms and values.

💬 Sophia Datta, a Master’s Student at Johns Hopkins University and at Tsinghua University, noted that in a multipolar world, the United States, Russia and China will determine the international order together with such emerging players as India, Brazil and Iran, but this does not negate the need for dialogue between all countries. Common challenges, particularly pandemics and climate change, have demonstrated that despite ideological differences, states must cooperate for the benefit of all humanity and engage in a multilateral dialogue.

💬 “To describe the world in a certain period of time, you need to find out what its structure is—how many poles and what is the balance between them,” said Tian Kang, a PhD Student at Tsinghua University’s Faculty of International Relations, discussing methodological issues. According to Kang, changing the structure of the world and the balance between the poles is always associated with an increase in violence, and this should not be forgotten. That is why it is in the interests of leading countries to find an opportunity to agree on common rules of the game and achieve stability.

💬 The presentation of the new report was concluded by Timofey Bordachev, head of the “Valdai – New Generation” project. This is a new project of the Club for those who are interested in conducting research together, participating in Valdai Club conferences, working in regional programmes, that is, becoming participants in a broad international creative process. A competition for participation in this project will be announced during the Valdai Club events at the World Youth Festival in Sochi.  

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/from-global-disorder-to-multipolarity/

📍 More information about the Valdai’s New Generation project can be found here. 

#Valdai_NewGeneration #ValdaiYouth #valdai_report

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🌐 Despite the ongoing discussion about the declining role of the state in international relations, the importance of diplomacy has never been questioned in research papers.

▪️ The founder of classical realism, Hans Morgenthau, described diplomacy as the core element of power and a way of converting all types of public resources into influence.

▪️ A well-known theorist of international relations, Adam Watson, saw diplomacy as a tool of interaction between independent states that exist in a common international environment and as a means of protecting the internal environment of states from external impulses.

▪️ Norwegian researcher Iver Neumann identified three main profiles in forming the diplomat’s professional qualities: “a bureaucrat,” “a hero,” and “a mediator.”

The study of diplomatic practices is crucial as the international order transitions from hegemony to polycentricity, intensifying rivalry between states.

A new Valdai Club report “Crafting National Interests: How Diplomatic Training Impacts Sovereignty” represents a preliminary exploration of the training of international analysts and diplomatic personnel worldwide, conducted by MGIMO University.

The contributors assert that the quality of diplomatic training holds significant importance in enabling nation-states to attain autonomy and agency in the evolving polycentric world order.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/crafting-national-interests-diplomatic-training/

⏰ The presentation of the report will take place today, at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3). Watch the live broadcast on our website.

#Return_of_Diplomacy #valdai_report #diplomacy

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⏰ TODAY at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will present a new report titled “Crafting National Interests: How Diplomatic Training Impacts Sovereignty”

❓To what extent are Western countries prepared to end the “strategic vacation” and return to competition?
❓What traditions of training diplomats have the World Majority states acquired during the post-colonial period?

Participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VKontakte, Telegram and Dzen.

#Return_of_Diplomacy #diplomacy #valdai_report

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🎥 LIVE: at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will present a new report titled “Crafting National Interests: How Diplomatic Training Impacts Sovereignty”

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239182

#Return_of_Diplomacy #diplomacy #valdai_report

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🇮🇷 How to Fight Sanctions: The Iranian Experience

On September 9, the Valdai Discussion Club presented the report “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

💬 The discussion was moderated by Ivan Timofeev, the Club’s programme director, who noted that Iran remains one of the key cases for those studying the use of sanctions, and that Iran’s experience is extremely important for Russia. Timofeev emphasised that, while this experience cannot be copied literally, it requires careful, unbiased, and objective study.

💬 Adlan Margoev, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO and a co-author of the report, briefly outlined some of its key points. Margoev analysed Iran’s reaction to the sanctions, noting that Tehran was simultaneously trying to reach an agreement with the initiators and adapt to the terms of the sanctions. According to him, the results of Iran’s attempts to reach an agreement show that sanctions are a “one-way ticket.” Even if at some point it is possible to remove or soften them, it is very difficult to ensure the sustainability of this deal. The analyst noted that Iran, despite colossal sanctions pressure, is coping with its basic needs - and this is certainly a positive experience - but it cannot yet scale this success to the entire economy.

💬 Maxim Baranov, Acting Director of the Second Asian Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, noted that the approach outlined in the report is of interest both from the point of view of assessing the development of modern Iran and from the point of view of survival under sanctions. The diplomat named the need for far-reaching work to create a regulatory framework for combating sanctions. The corresponding declaration signed by Russia and Iran is becoming a basic document for interaction with other countries and can serve as a basis for transferring anti-sanction cooperation from a bilateral to a multilateral format. "Sanctions are not our choice. But we can choose how to fight them," Baranov added.

💬 Kayhan Barzegar, Senior Academic Advisor at the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS), acknowledged that sanctions have caused serious difficulties for the Iranian economy, but added that Iran is capable of coping with them and will not collapse under any circumstances. Sanctions put pressure on the Iranian people, especially the middle class, but they cannot alter the country's strategic approaches and priorities. Barzegar noted that Iran is now actively involved in regional politics, using its advantageous geographical location, and this has delivered extremely positive results. The reorientation towards countries in the Global South helps it protect its national interests.

💬 Sumbula Sultanova, Executive Secretary of the Russian-Iranian Business Council, described the Iranian "resistance economy" as a well-coordinated mechanism aimed at maximising the use of internal resources - human, financial and natural - as well as resisting external pressure by creating reserves of necessary goods. Counteracting the sanctions regime falls under the jurisdiction of state institutions. “The timely adjustment of the economy by the state allows Iran to stay afloat again and again,” Sultanova said.

💬 Lana Ravandi-Fadai, Senior Researcher and Head of the Eastern Cultural Centre at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the development of the Iranian economy can be called relatively successful. In her opinion, banking plays a key role in overcoming sanctions. She puts the oil industry in second place. Another important point, according to Ravandi-Fadai, is the development of relations with neighbours, both those under sanctions and those not under sanctions. In addition, she believes it is necessary to take into account the influence of domestic policy, including the creation of free economic zones.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/how-to-fight-sanctions-the-iranian-experience/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #valdai_report #Iran #sanctions

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🎥 LIVE: at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a presentation of the report “The World Majority and Its Interests”.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239208

#WiderEurasia #valdai_report #WorldMajority #WorldOrder

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🗣 On October 10, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation of the report “The World Majority and Its Interests”.

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

#WiderEurasia #valdai_report #WorldMajority #WorldOrder

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🌐 Living by One's Own Wits: The World Majority in Search of Independent Decision-Making

On October 10, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted a presentation of the report “The World Majority and Its Interests.” 

💬 The moderator of the event, Timofey Bordachev, lead author and editor of the report, explained that this refers to the absolute majority of countries in the world that are not directly involved in either the military-political conflict between Russia and the West or the confrontation between China and the United States, and prefer not to take sides in these confrontations. How are the interests of countries in this group formed and evolving? What can we expect from them in the future and how will their behaviour affect the development of international politics and the global economy?

💬 Lidiya Kulik, PhD in History; Head of India Studies, SKOLKOVO School of Management; Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, called the study extremely timely. Having considered India as a typical example, she pointed out that, despite the diversity of the world majority, the distinctive feature of its countries is that, while they do not want to join any blocs, they demand maximum respect for their position. In each of these countries, there are objectively formed interest groups that are oriented toward different blocs and different sides of the confrontation. This creates a new phenomenon, a kind of “multi-alignment”.

💬 Nourhan ElSheikh, Professor of Political Science at Cairo University; Member of the Egyptian Council for International Affairs, believes that the increasing role of the world majority is one of the largest transformations in the world. She emphasised that the world majority is an established fact, the significance of which is growing. “This is a key phenomenon that is necessary for both the Global South and the entire world,” she said, adding that it probably makes sense to institutionalise it and create within its framework some tools for coordinating activities in international structures.

💬 Mayya Nikolskaya, Acting Director of the Centre for African Studies at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University and co-author of the report, clarified that when speaking about the majority of countries in the world being outside of global confrontations, it should be clarified that this is only about non-alignment with one camp or another. They can very well serve as an arena for confrontation, and, for example, African countries are precisely the field in which the competition between the United States and China is most obvious. According to Nikolskaya, two trends are currently being observed among African countries: one aimed at reforming the existing global structure and one aimed at finding alternative options.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/living-by-one-s-own-wits/

#WiderEurasia #valdai_report #WorldMajority #WorldOrder

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🔋 Even in the original five-country format, BRICS looked like a formidable energy conglomerate.

It included the world’s largest hydrocarbons exporter (Russia) and the largest consumer of energy resources (China). After the expansion on January 1, 2024, the group emerged as a real energy giant.

With the addition of the three hydrocarbon powers, BRICS now holds about 40 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and more than 50 percent of gas reserves. On the demand end, the group accounts for 47 percent of the planet’s primary energy consumption, almost 50 percent above that of the G7 countries (including the European Union).

It is a hard fact that the centre of energy consumption is shifting from the developed countries, united under the G7 brand, to the so-called ‘emerging markets.’ But the scale of that transformation over the last thirty years has been truly monumental, writes Alexey Grivach, the author of a new #valdai_report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order”.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/brics-energy-a-mover-for-the-new-world-order/

⏰ The presentation of the report will take place today at 11:00 a.m. Moscow time. Watch the live broadcast on our website.

📑 Report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order” in PDF

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #BRICS #energy

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🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 a.m. Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host a presentation of the new report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order” on the eve of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. 

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239211

📑 Report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order”

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #BRICS #energy #valdai_report

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🗣 On October 18, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation of the new report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order” on the eve of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. 

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

📑 Report “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order” in PDF

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #BRICS #energy #valdai_report

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🤝🔋 Energy Cooperation within BRICS: Revolutionary Resistance

On October 18, on the eve of the BRICS summit in Kazan, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation of a report titled “BRICS+ Energy: A Mover for the New World Order.”

💬 Ivan Timofeev, the moderator of the discussion, noted that although the BRICS agenda is quite broad, energy occupies a special place in the group’s agenda, since Russia is the largest supplier of energy resources, and India, China, and Brazil are dynamically growing economic giants that need larger volumes of supplies. The international situation is also favourable for expanding energy cooperation between the group’s countries.

💬 Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director General for Gas Problems of the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) and author of the report, pointed out that the centre of energy development is shifting toward the Global South, particularly the Asia-Pacific region and the BRICS countries. More than thirty years ago, the "collective West" thought that it had won once and for all and that history had ended. However, life has shattered this illusion, and now the BRICS countries are defending their positions in the world. The rate of economic growth in most BRICS countries is also higher than in the West.

In addition, BRICS is a serious energy conglomerate, which has further strengthened its position after expansion. Electricity production, which can be considered a measure of economic power, has grown in the group's countries almost five-fold. He added that in the context of sanctions pressure, the BRICS countries and all countries that want to develop without heeding the dictates of the West are faced with the task of building infrastructure, institutions, and instruments for energy trade. “Our resistance must grow, and this should become one of the main areas of BRICS’ work,” the author of the Valdai Club report believes.

💬 Nivedita Das Kundu, Professor at the Faculty of International Relations at the Uzbekistan State University of World Languages, briefly outlined India’s approach to energy cooperation within BRICS. In her opinion, the topic of the report is “very significant.” The global balance of power is now shifting towards developing economies, and this affects the political and geostrategic situation around the world, she said. Energy cooperation among BRICS member countries serves to break the Western monopoly and hegemony and advances the multilateral agenda. Das Kundu acknowledged that the BRICS group has now adopted a certain anti-Western attitude, and this raises certain concerns for India, which fundamentally adheres to a neutral position and does not want to join the blocs. However, she called the emergence of BRICS+ a good step that facilitates the transition to a new world order.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/energy-cooperation-within-brics-revolutionary-resistance/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #BRICS #energy #valdai_report

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