🪖🌐 The conflict in Ukraine has become central to world discourse.

The sharing of real or fake photos and videos on social media has become a hallmark of press attention, making the boundaries between fact and fiction increasingly indiscernible. Over the course of this year of conflict, it became clear that anything goes when it comes to advancing a particular narrative, from video game images to the famous myth of the “ghost of Kiev”.

In fact, the spectacularization of this conflict has reached levels that are unprecedented in recent history. This not only keeps Western audiences entertained daily but also fuels the NATO war machine and its voyeuristic desires with the tragedy of others.

In the face of this debate, peace negotiations have been replaced by an external verdict to the parties involved in the conflict: Russia must lose at all costs. Throughout this one year, the factor of time has been manipulated both chronologically and ideationally to achieve this goal. In the chronology of events, the mainstream narrative about the conflict asserts that Russia is losing because it failed to conquer the second largest country in Europe in a month. The imagined verdict by the West is that Putin had and has this ambition. Even if that were the case, little is said about the consequences if the Kremlin had actually pursued a strategy of total control of Ukrainian territory in a few weeks. Such a presumption may be formulated from a self-expectation of mimicking the Western modus operandi in previous conflicts.

The NATO war in Ukraine against Russia has been prolonged and intensified, as increasing hostilities. If we understand violence as the acceleration of time, the longer the conflict lasts, the greater its consequences will be, writes Valdai Club expert Boris Perius Zabolotsky.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-a-matter-of-time/

#Norms_and_Values #Ukraine

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⚔️ Would the Ukraine crisis be limited to Ukraine’s territory?

Russia is fully cognizant that currently the American bureaucratic procedures governing the allocation of resources essential for sustaining Ukraine are duly reflected in the military budget for the upcoming fiscal year, implying that the conflict is unlikely to conclude within this timeframe.

Both the US Congress and the White House exhibit a shared comprehension and alignment in their objective to achieve “victory over Russia” on the battlefield. This institutional consolidation renders the United States a formidable adversary in this conflict, particularly within the scope of the annual timeframe.

Nevertheless, our interlocutors seem to be struggling to fully grasp the notion that Russia possesses invincible military capabilities. Russia has unequivocally conveyed its commitment to pursue its goals through any means necessary, even if it involves prolonged military action. Given such circumstances, negotiations would have been a more rational approach to dealing with Russia.

Understanding the significance of Ukraine to Russia and recognising the necessity of engaging in dialogue to address the matter would have been prudent. Russia will achieve its goals anyway.

Societies appear fatigued by the prolonged crisis, but this exhaustion has not yet led to significant shifts in public opinion among the European countries.

The Ukraine crisis would be limited to the territory of Ukraine only if no armed forces of NATO countries would enter the frontline, writes Valdai Club Program Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/would-the-ukraine-crisis-be-limited-to-ukraine/

#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #UkraineCrisis

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⚔️🌏 This crisis is a test of the quality of the strategy of all participants: everyone entered this crisis with their initial understanding of what the world looks like, how it works and where history is going.

The United States truly believes that foreign policy is part of its domestic policy.

Moreover, every American foreign policy strategy is one component of the country’s internal struggles; American self-absorption greatly unnerves their near and far allies and creates uncertainty in the development of the situation.

Ukraine is a convenient, rather cheap tool for weakening and containing Russia, as well as forcing the European allies to embrace discipline and obedience, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-in-the-hands-of-the-united-states-tool/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine #WorldOrder

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🌏🌎 The expansion of NATO is the immediate external factor behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

As a military alliance, NATO could only maintain its internal peace, but has brought about adverse impacts on the overall security of the European continent.

The global strategic imbalance which emerged after the Cold War is a crucial reason why the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still going on today.

The conflict should be regarded as a consequence of a global and regional strategic political imbalance.

Active efforts should be made to rectify such an imbalance. To do so, developing countries should work together to make a contribution to building a new global balance, write Wang Yiwei and Duan Minnong.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/two-years-into-the-russia-ukraine-conflict/

#WiderEurasia #NATO #Ukraine #WorldOrder

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On September 19 at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “Elections in the USA: What Awaits Ukraine?”

The United States presidential elections, which will be held in November, are especially significant. Political polarisation in the country has reached a critical point. If a few years ago the peak of this process was an attempt to seize the Congress building by force, this year we witnessed an assassination attempt on a presidential candidate.

Amid domestic political contradictions, material problems are also accumulating: the infrastructure is deteriorating, the railway industry is facing difficulties, external debt is growing, migration policy is stalling, and inflation remains high.

Problems in foreign policy are also multiplying. The discussion about China presenting a key challenge to American influence is becoming more active, but the Ukrainian conflict also remains in sight.

❓Republicans and Democrats disagree on many issues, but how different are their positions really?
❓How can US foreign policy change? Will it change at all?
❓What scenario awaits Ukraine after the American elections?

The participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

🎙️ Speakers:

🔹 Dimitri Simes, Channel One host, founder and former president of The Center for the National Interest (USA)

🔹 Sergey Kislitsyn, Acting Director of the Institute of the USA and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences

🔹 Ivan Safranchuk, Director of the Centre for Eurasian Studies, MGIMO University

🔹 Vladimir Pechatnov, Professor at the Department of History and Politics of European and American Countries,  MGIMO University

Moderator:

🗣 Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-us-presidential-elections-and-future-of-ukraine/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Return_of_Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine

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⏰ TODAY at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “Elections in the USA: What Awaits Ukraine?”

❓Republicans and Democrats disagree on many issues, but how different are their positions really?
❓How can US foreign policy change? Will it change at all?
❓What scenario awaits Ukraine after the American elections?

The participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Return_of_Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine

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🎥 LIVE: at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting an expert discussion, titled “Elections in the USA: What Awaits Ukraine?”

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239206

#Return_of_Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine

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🗣 On September 19, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “Elections in the USA: What Awaits Ukraine?”

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

#Return_of_Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine

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🇺🇸 High-Stakes Elections: Foreign and Domestic Policy Dimensions of the US Presidential Campaign

On September 19, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “Elections in the USA: What Awaits Ukraine?”

💬 Moderator Andrey Sushentsov noted that the American presidential elections scheduled for November 5 are of concern to most countries throughout the world, and will affect many areas of international life. For Vladimir Zelensky and his entourage, it is especially important who will lead the United States. The Ukrainian government is trying to adapt to any scenario.

💬 Sergey Kislitsyn, Acting Director of the Institute of the USA and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences, analysed the economic dimension of the upcoming elections. He emphasised that the recent reduction in the key rate by the Federal Reserve, which occurred for the first time since 2020, shows that the Biden administration is generally coping with economic policy, including the inflation problem and job creation. At the same time, the Biden administration has acted taking into account the fact that the Republicans could take the White House and embrace more aggressive forms of protectionism that destroy relations with European partners, and therefore created not trade agreements, but rather platforms for cooperation that Trump will probably not destroy. 

💬 Vladimir Pechatnov, professor of the Department of History and Politics of European and American Countries at MGIMO, believes that the current elections stand out from preceding ones in terms of volatility, but in themselves do not contain anything revolutionary. Nevertheless, the election campaign can serve as an indicator of deeper changes in American society. However, the outcome of the vote is not yet clear: the gap between the candidates is still small and Kamala Harris has too many weaknesses that Donald Trump can exploit.

💬 Ivan Safranchuk, Director of the Centre for Eurasian Studies at the MGIMO Institute, opined that hopes that the US position on Ukraine will change in the event of a Republican victory are largely misleading. Donald Trump apparently has no feasible plan for the Ukrainian crisis and his approach is rather dictated by a rejection of the current administration’s policies. The basis of the Trump team’s idea apparently assumes a “draw” and fixation of the situation along the line of contact between combatants. However, according to Safranchuk, a conflict of such intensity, scale and dynamics cannot end like that – there must be a loser.

💬 Dimitri Simes, Channel One host, founder and former president of The Center for the National Interest (USA), contended that  the seriousness of what is happening around the elections is not to be underestimated, despite the exaggerated accusations and fears on both sides. "Undoubtedly, the stakes are very, very high," he emphasised. Simes pointed to the colossal level of mutual distrust between Republicans and Democrats, which will inevitably continue after the elections.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/high-stakes-elections-foreign-and-domestic-policy-dimensions-of-the-us-presidential-campaign/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #UnitedStates #Ukraine

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⚔️ Contrary to optimistic expectations, the new administration is unlikely to initiate a comprehensive settlement in Ukraine. A more likely scenario for the development of events will be a US move to “freeze” the conflict.

The main tasks that the Trump administration needs to address remain unchanged: eliminating the threat that the allies will lose trust in its security guarantees, keeping Ukraine in its sphere of influence as an asset against Russia in the future, and preventing the normalisation of relations between the EU and Russia. The US needs to stabilize the long-term crisis and maintain its predictability.

Freezing the Ukraine conflict along the contact line, rather than seeking a deeper resolution, suits the US: there will remain a point of tension in Eastern Europe, which will encourage the EU to remain dependent on Washington in terms of ensuring its own security, writes Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-crisis-in-2025/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Ukraine #UnitedStates

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🇺🇸🇷🇺 Can Trump stop the conflict in Ukraine?

The new White House administration in the US has given rise to speculation about negotiations with Russia on the Ukrainian conflict.

Newly elected US President Donald Trump has stated that the settlement of the conflict is a high priority task for the new authorities.  Russia has voiced its openness to negotiations based on the Istanbul agreements of 2022. 

After the inauguration of Trump in January 2025, a window of opportunity for negotiations may indeed open.

However, the prerequisites for dialogue are more than offset by a number of negative factors. Both the success of the negotiations and the sustainability of possible agreements are questionable, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/can-trump-stop-the-conflict-in-ukraine/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Trump #Ukraine

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