Valdai Discussion Club
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๐ŸŽฅ Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy: Syrian People Deserve to Live in Peace

Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy, Deputy Special Envoy for Syria of the United Nations (2014-2019), discusses the agenda for post-conflict Syria.

He points out that the constitutional reform is the most important issue, which Syrians themselves have to deal with. According to him, stability in the country is significant for the entire region.

He also underlines the role of Russia in the conflict resolution, due to the fact that it could communicate with all the parties involved.

#Syria

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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ With the special operation in Ukraine, Syriaโ€™s strategic importance for Moscow has increased.

Prior to the Ukraine conflict, Washington would have been prepared - under certain conditions- to reach a deal on a settlement in Syria. Now, however, matters have changed. 

Clearly the conflict in Ukraine has cast its shadow on the situation in Syria. An understanding between Washington and Moscow was always a critical ingredient for a settlement. At present, both nations are engaged in a conflict that far outweighs the advantages of reaching an agreement on in any regional conflict, including Syria.

For Moscow, the conflict in Ukraine has existential implications. For Washington, it has consequences for the leadership role in the evolving international system it aspires to maintain.

As long as the conflict in Ukraine persists, Washington would probably prefer that there is no rapid settlement in Syria, so Moscow would continue to be, at least, partially distracted, writes Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy, Deputy Special Envoy for Syria of the United Nations (2014-2019).

#ModernDiplomacy #Syria

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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ The international community needs a qualitative change in its approach to solve the humanitarian crisis in Syria.

In 2021, only 27% of the required amount was allocated for the humanitarian needs of ordinary Syrians. It seems important that the members of the UN Security Council continue to maintain a dialogue on a cross-border mechanism for the supply of humanitarian assistance.

At the same time, it is important to facilitate the return to Syria of refugees who are now in other countries. Rebuilding infrastructure would motivate Syrians to return rather than stay in refugee camps in neighbouring countries (Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, etc.).

As the most serious threat that in the medium term can provoke another wave of the humanitarian crisis in Syria, one should wait for a possible Turkish military operation in the country. Ankaraโ€™s previous campaigns have damaged critical Syrian civilian infrastructure, disrupting water supplies and interrupting power generation. The intensification of hostilities can aggravate the humanitarian problems of Syria, which will inevitably provoke a new wave of local migration and worsen the living conditions of those Syrians who remain in the country.

The humanitarian crisis is likely to worsen due to the devastating earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria in February 2023, writes Ivan Bocharov, RIAC Program Coordinator.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/earthquake-in-syria-what-to-save-/

#EconomicStatecraft #Syria

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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ In 2023, the Syrian Arab Republic entered its 13th year of conflict.

Although over the last three years, the intensity of the fight has remained at its lowest ebb since the start of the crisis, it did not bring desired peace, stability and economic revival to the country. Undoubtedly, less violence and fewer people killed in the hostilities is a positive trend. However, increasing economic distress, which leads to more hardship and suffering among the civilian population, is definitely bad. 

However, the last several months have brought a breakthrough on the diplomatic level and led to a normalisation between Damascus and many regional actors. Deepening cooperation with the UAE, Oman, Bahrain and Jordan, as well as reconciliation with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Algeria have definitely set up a positive trend which eventually resulted in an Arab consensus to restore Syriaโ€™s membership in the Arab League on May 7. The countryโ€™s reintegration back into the Arab family can be parlayed into more economic assistance and the reconstruction of Syria.

Thus far, the de-synchronized and divergent processes of worsening economic situation in Syria on the one hand, and diplomatic normalization with the regional actors on the other, are the most important issues to look at when assessing whether Syria is on the way out of the decade-long crisis, writes Alexey Khlebnikov, a Middle East expert with the Russian International Affairs Council.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/syria-at-a-srossroads-the-economic-and-diplomatic/

#EconomicStatecraft #Syria

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๐Ÿ“† ANNOUNCEMENT: On June 20 at 16:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled โ€œSyria: Halfway Homeโ€, dedicated to the countryโ€™s return to the Arab League after 12 years.

The Syrian crisis has become one of the most acute and complex in the Middle East over the past 15 years. With the intervention of external forces, the civil conflict escalated into a war which threatened to disintegrate the country. In 2013, the crisis took on an international character when the US and EU countries declared President Assad illegitimate and launched pressure on Damascus through the UN and other international institutions.

Following an official request from Damascus, Russia provided military assistance to the Assad government, thanks to which the legitimate authorities managed to regain control over the countryโ€™s territory. Moscow also made a great contribution as a mediator, participating in the intra-Syrian negotiations in Geneva and launching the Astana process, whereby the โ€œexternalโ€ and โ€œinternalโ€ opposition sat down at the negotiating tablefor the first time in 2018 in Sochi.

On May 7, 2023, the Arab League Council decided to bring Syria back to the organization after 12 years of suspension. Experts believe that this is a great diplomatic victory for President Assad and marks the gradual weakening of the influence of the United States and Western countries in the Middle East.

โ“Can we talk about the Syrian crisis coming to an end?
โ“What is the priority task of Syrian foreign policy after returning to the Arab League?
โ“Will Syria be able to resolve the accumulated contradictions with Turkey?
โ“Can China become a leading player in the region?
โ“What role will Russia play in the post-conflict settlement?

Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

๐ŸŽ™ Speakers:

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Bashar al-Jaafari, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Syrian Arab Republic to the Russian Federation

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Maria Khodynskaya-Golenishcheva, Professor, Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Russian Foreign Ministry; Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Planning Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Igor Matveev, Senior Researcher, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy, UN Deputy Special Envoy for Syria (2014-2019)

Moderator:

๐Ÿšฉ Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-syria-s-return-to-the-arab-league/

Working languages: Russian, English.

โ„น๏ธ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Dzen.

#ModernDiplomacy #Syria #ArabLeague

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โฐ TODAY at 16:00 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled โ€œSyria: Halfway Homeโ€, dedicated to the countryโ€™s return to the Arab League after 12 years.

โ“Can we talk about the Syrian crisis coming to an end?
โ“What is the priority task of Syrian foreign policy after returning to the Arab League?
โ“Will Syria be able to resolve the accumulated contradictions with Turkey?
โ“Can China become a leading player in the region?
โ“What role will Russia play in the post-conflict settlement?

Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the TwitterTelegram and Dzen.

#ModernDiplomacy #Syria #ArabLeague

@valdai_club
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ Syria and the Arab League: The Reunification of the Arab Family

On June 20, 2023, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion, titled โ€œSyria: Halfway Home,โ€ dedicated to the countryโ€™s return to the Arab League after twelve years.

๐Ÿ’ฌ The moderator of the discussion, Andrey Sushentsov, programme director of the Valdai Club, noted that the decision taken in May by the Arab League Council to resume Syriaโ€™s suspended membership in the organisation looks like a significant diplomatic victory for Damascus.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Bashar al-Jaafari, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Syrian Arab Republic to the Russian Federation, stressed that Syria has never completely left the Arab League and now it is only concerned with resuming its activities in the organisation. Expressing gratitude to Russia for the assistance it provided to the Syrian Arab Republic from the very beginning of the crisis, the ambassador called Russian-Syrian relations an example of partnership and brotherhood.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy, UN Deputy Special Envoy for Syria (2014-2019), added that no one in the Arab world believed that Syria had truly abandoned the Arab family. He noted with joy that the issue had finally been resolved and expressed his hope that in the future, the Arab League would not try to ostracize any of its members. Analysing the role of the Arab states in resolving the crisis, the diplomat pointed out that for a long time they had tried to distance themselves from this process, but gradually realized that the situation should not be left to chance. Their priorities now, according to Ramzy, include the return of refugees, the fight against terrorism and the reconstruction of the country.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Maria Khodynskaya-Golenishcheva, Professor at the Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems of the  Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University) and Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Planning Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, called the return of Syria to the Arab League a big event, including from the standpoint of geopolitics. In her opinion, what is happening illustrates centripetal tendencies within the Arab community, and within the framework of the civilizational approach adopted in the updated Foreign Policy Concept of Russia. Centripetal tendencies within civilizational communities are a positive factor from the point of view of the prospects for the formation of a global world order. The more consolidated civilizational communities are, the more opportunities they will have to speak with one voice and express the aspirations of their peoples, and the more significant their contribution to the formation of a multipolar system will be, Khodynskaya-Golenishcheva believes.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Igor Matveev, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, considers what is happening to be the return of historical justice. โ€œThe Syrian people have shown resilience,โ€ the expert believes. โ€œIt was primarily because of that resilience that what happened, happened.โ€ He considers the stalwart and consistent defence of the interests of the country to be an important element. In the context of the normalisation of Syria's relations with its neighbours, Matveev pointed to the increasing talk of creating a regional platform for the reconstruction of Syria, and this platform should not necessarily be limited to the Arab world.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/syria-and-the-arab-league-the-reunification-of-the-arab-family/

#ModernDiplomacy #Syria #ArabLeague

@valdai_club
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ The normalisation of Syriaโ€™s relations with the Arab world was the result of the gradual formation of an inter-Arab consensus on recognising the victory of the Syrian authorities in the fight against the opposition.

The latter was unable to consolidate its ranks and achieve military success, degrading and losing external support. The mass flows of Syrian refugees (according to the UN data for 2023, there were 5.4 million people from Syria in neighbouring countries) have become a burden on the economies of Jordan and Lebanon.

No less significant are the current de-escalation shifts in the system of international relations in the Middle East, namely, the normalisation of relations between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, the traditional rivals for influence in the region, which began with the mediation of China.

The Syrian-Turkish rapprochement with the assistance of Russia may soon be another move towards peace. The chances for the implementation of the corresponding road map, which was announced after the meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, Syria and Turkey on May 10 in Moscow, are increasing in light of statements made by Turkish President Erdogan about the possibility of his meeting with Bashar al-Assad.

Is Damascusโ€™ success real, and how quickly will practical steps follow? 

Despite the positive nature of the progress in the normalisation of relations between Syria and the Arab world, the content and speed of this process remain unclear. Along with incentives โ€” the desire of the states of the Middle East to strengthen sovereignty, the Iranian-Saudi โ€œdรฉtenteโ€ and good prospects for economic cooperation, there are obstacles. The main ones are American sanctions that impede the formation of a regional platform for the reconstruction of SyriaIgor Matveev writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/syria-return-to-arab-league-what-next/

#ModernDiplomacy #Syria #ArabLeague #MiddleEast

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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ The recent offensive by Syrian rebels which took control of several cities, particularly the strategic city of Aleppo, is a new development that, although surprising, was not strange.

The Middle East region and Syria have many unresolved challenges that are capable of leading to a crisis and an uncertain future at any time under the influence of national, regional or international factors, writes Alireza Noori.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/borderless-manipulated-terrorism-in-syria/

#Return_of_Diplomacy #Syria #MiddleEast

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๐Ÿ“† ANNOUNCEMENT: On December 16 at 11:00 a.m., the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow will host a discussion on the situation in Syria.

The situation in Syria has changed rapidly and radically. After 24 years of rule, on December 8 Bashar al-Assad resigned as President of the Syrian Arab Republic. Meanwhile, the armed opposition occupied Damascus. The following day, the Israeli army moved eastward into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, Israel intends to maintain control over the region in the future.

Russia has played an active role in resolving the civil conflict in Syria in recent years, and these changes concern it directly. Russia is now in contact with all factions of the Syrian opposition, and is calling for a renunciation of the use of violence and the resolution of all issues through inter-Syrian inclusive negotiations with UN participation.

โ“What led to the rapid regime change in Syria?
โ“How can international organisations influence the normalisation of the situation?
โ“What will the new Syrian government look like?
โ“How will the role of external players involved in Syria change?
โ“What are the goals and prospects of the Russian presence in Syria and the Middle East as a whole today?
โ“To what extent will the Syrian changes affect the entire region?

The panellists will try to answer these and other questions.

๐ŸŽ™๏ธ Speakers:

๐Ÿ”น Vitaly Naumkin, Academic Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS, Professor, Full Member of the RAS

๐Ÿ”น Jamil Qadri, leader of the Moscow platform of the Syrian opposition, secretary of the โ€˜People's Willโ€™ party

๐Ÿ”น Taha ร–zhan, Research Director, Ankara Institute

Moderator:

๐Ÿ—ฃ Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/situation-in-syria-valdai-discuss/

Working languages: Russian, English.

โ„น๏ธ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please 
fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the 
websiteX (formerly Twitter)VKTelegram and Dzen

#Syria #MiddleEast

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๐Ÿ“† TOMORROW, on December 16, at 11:00 a.m., the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow will host a discussion on the situation in Syria.

The situation in Syria has changed rapidly and radically. After 24 years of rule, on December 8 Bashar al-Assad resigned as President of the Syrian Arab Republic. Meanwhile, the armed opposition occupied Damascus. The following day, the Israeli army moved eastward into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, Israel intends to maintain control over the region in the future.

Russia has played an active role in resolving the civil conflict in Syria in recent years, and these changes concern it directly. Russia is now in contact with all factions of the Syrian opposition, and is calling for a renunciation of the use of violence and the resolution of all issues through inter-Syrian inclusive negotiations with UN participation.

๐Ÿ—ฃ For details follow this link

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the websiteX (formerly Twitter)VKTelegram and Dzen

#Syria #MiddleEast

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โฐ TODAY at 11:00 a.m., the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow will host a discussion on the situation in Syria.

โ“What led to the rapid regime change in Syria?
โ“How can international organisations influence the normalisation of the situation?
โ“What will the new Syrian government look like?
โ“How will the role of external players involved in Syria change?
โ“What are the goals and prospects of the Russian presence in Syria and the Middle East as a whole today?
โ“To what extent will the Syrian changes affect the entire region?

The panellists will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the websiteX (formerly Twitter)VKTelegram and Dzen

#Syria #MiddleEast

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๐Ÿ—ฃ On December 16, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion on the situation in Syria.

๐Ÿ“ท Photo gallery

๐ŸŽฅ Video

#valdaiclub #Syria #MiddleEast

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๐Ÿ’ข Syria: Origins of the Crisis and Future Prospects

On December 16, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion devoted to the situation in Syria. Fyodor Lukyanov, the discussion moderator, called the events in the country extremely dramatic and emphasised that the very speed at which the regime in the country dematerialised was indicative of a new type of change of power, even for the turbulent modern history of the Middle East.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Academician Vitaly Naumkin, Academic Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, stated that the element of surprise was quite high, although Turkey and Qatar were clearly ready for it. Speaking about the consequences and identifying questions that have not yet been answered, he noted that the Kurds suffered the most, in addition to Bashar al-Assadโ€™s supporters. โ€œThe Kurdish factor is dramatically changing its place in the balance of power,โ€ the expert believes. โ€œThe question is whether the Americans continue to support the Kurds.โ€ The main beneficiaries of what is happening are Israel and Turkey, but it is not entirely clear what they want, and in this context, the question of buffer zones, in particular in the Golan Heights, remains quite important.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Jamil Qadri, the leader of the Moscow Platform of the Syrian opposition and secretary of the Peopleโ€™s Will party, called for an understanding of what is happening by turning to the past and analysing the origins of the crisis systematically. He sees an important factor in the fact that Syria has been living under a one-party system for 75 years, with power in the hands of the security forces. Syrian leaders probably had no other choice, given the underdevelopment of the political system, but this does not change the problems generated by this approach. Bashar al-Assad ignored Russiaโ€™s recommendations to hold a political dialogue. As a result, over 80 percent of the population was discontented, which directly affected the armyโ€™s unpreparedness to fight.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Taha ร–zhan, Director of the Research Institute in Ankara, sees the fall of the Assad regime as the culmination of a long-term crisis: the authorities had failed to manage the country and actively resorted to repression, while actually controlling only a small part of the territory, and many Syrians became refugees or internally displaced persons. โ€œThe collapse of the regime was accompanied by eleven years of agony and eleven days of struggle,โ€ he summarised. This led to the formation of a political vacuum that requires a pragmatic settlement. A recalibration of the positions of Russia, Iran, the United States and Turkey in the region is necessary.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/syria-origins-of-the-crisis-and-future-prospects/

#Syria #MiddleEast

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๐Ÿšซ The change of power in Syria raises the question of possible changes to the US sanctions regime against the country.

Over the past two decades, Syria has been among the countries against which Washington has applied the most severe regime of restrictive measures.

These included blocking financial sanctions, large-scale export controls, import bans, transport and visa restrictions.

The US sanctions regime against Syria remains in full force. The decrees will most likely be cancelled only if Washington is confident in a large-scale and irreversible change in Syriaโ€™s political course towards the expectations and interests of the US, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/sanctions-remain-a-tool-to-influence-the-syrian/

#EconomicStatecraft2025 #sanctions #Syria

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