🇺🇸 In the wake of his success in the South Carolina primaries, Trump's victory in the fight for the Republican nomination is almost guaranteed.

Now he must concentrate a significant portion of his campaign resources on fighting Biden. His choice for the post of vice president will have strategic significance. This is due to several reasons.

1️⃣ First, it is important for the American voter to know that the position of head of state will be in good hands if the president is unable to perform his duties. The reasons can be different, from ordinary surgery to death. Let’s not forget that by election day, Trump will already be 78 years old and no matter how anyone talks about his activity or vigour, age is taking its toll, and voters have noticed it.

2️⃣ Second, the majority of Americans do not want to see either Trump or Biden as a presidential candidate. Some voters, including some Republicans, are planning to sit out the 2024 elections altogether. While it is more important for Republicans, especially Trump, to win in certain parts of some states than by the total number of popular votes, this still creates some difficulties on his way to victory. Wooing ‘MAGA’ voters won't be enough for him.

3️⃣ Third, one of the main arguments of the Democrats against Trump remains the assertion that he is uncontrollable and prone to authoritarianism. While checks and balances have always been enough to rein in controversial US presidents, including Trump himself from 2017 to 2021, some voters fear for the state of democracy.

4️⃣ Fourth, Trump has a chance to use the choice of vice president to gain additional political “points.” This is a conditional advantage only because four years later, Biden is unlikely to be able to surprise anyone with Kamala Harris.

Despite Trump's apparent superiority over Biden, the former president will have a difficult time winning in November, writes Roman Romanov, Ph.D. fellow at the Russian State University for the Humanities.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/trump-s-path-to-victory-a-priority-electorate/

#GlobalAlternatives #Trump

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 China has firmly integrated into the American-centric model of globalisation, but unlike most other countries, it has been able to maintain its sovereignty and prevent the United States from influencing its domestic political processes.

China's economic rise has led to the strengthening of its technological, industrial, and military capabilities. Sooner or later, such growth was bound to become a problem for the United States. The presidency of Donald Trump in 2016-2020 was a period when a visible shift occurred in American policy towards China. 

Trump changed the approach to China both at the doctrinal level and at the level of practical policy. In doctrinal terms, Trump exacerbated all the comments that were previously made about the PRC in a cautious and delicate manner: China is an authoritarian country with a communist regime that has little in common with American values. The rise of the PRC is a problem and a challenge for the United States. China's overseas projects, such as the Belt and Road project, are a means of economic expansion for the Celestial Empire that must be contained.

The Biden administration was much more restrained in its anti-Chinese rhetoric. However, it did not change the structure of sanctions pressure on China. The problems that generated the sanctions were not resolved.

In the end, both Trump and Harris, if they win, will continue the course of containing China. However, Trump's performance will be more aggressive and assertive, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/trump-or-harris-does-it-matter-for-china/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #UnitedStates #China #Trump #Harris

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