🦅The United States can afford to make gross miscalculations that would be catastrophic for any other country.
The leadership of the United States rests on four key dimensions of power: the dollar’s dominance in international settlements, unprecedented military power, an attractive lifestyle and complementary migration policy, and finally, an innovative economy that allows the United States to maintain leadership in technology and military combat systems. If foreign policy mistakes do not undermine one of these four pillars, then the United States can afford to make them without significant consequences for itself, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#Conflicts_and_Leadership
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/think-tanks-and-u-s-foreign-policy/
The leadership of the United States rests on four key dimensions of power: the dollar’s dominance in international settlements, unprecedented military power, an attractive lifestyle and complementary migration policy, and finally, an innovative economy that allows the United States to maintain leadership in technology and military combat systems. If foreign policy mistakes do not undermine one of these four pillars, then the United States can afford to make them without significant consequences for itself, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.
#Conflicts_and_Leadership
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/think-tanks-and-u-s-foreign-policy/
Valdai Club
Think Tanks and US Foreign Policy
Having dealt with American research for more than 15 years, I’ve never stopped being amazed at the following paradox: how, with such a significant number of first-class think tanks (and there are more than 2,000 of them in the United States) the US continues…
🤝🌐 The distinguishing feature uniting some of the small open economies is that they perform important mediation roles not only in their respective regions, but also on a global scale.
Small countries do possess important advantages in conflict mediation compared to large economies:
Small states have unique comparative advantages in the field of mediation, as they are generally more nimble than larger mediation entities.
Small states benefit from the fact that they are not threatening. They are perceived as having less geopolitical interests and pursuing a more value-based approach in mediation.
At the same time, small countries need to cooperate and build networks “with other mediators in order to increase efficiency and minimize negative competition”.
The potential for such small states to successfully mediate conflicts is further magnified in case they are able to bring on board regional organizations that they are an important part of, writes Yaroslav Lissovolik, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
🔗 Small Countries as Key Agents in Peace Mediation
#Valdai_WorldEconomy #conflicts
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Small countries do possess important advantages in conflict mediation compared to large economies:
Small states have unique comparative advantages in the field of mediation, as they are generally more nimble than larger mediation entities.
Small states benefit from the fact that they are not threatening. They are perceived as having less geopolitical interests and pursuing a more value-based approach in mediation.
At the same time, small countries need to cooperate and build networks “with other mediators in order to increase efficiency and minimize negative competition”.
The potential for such small states to successfully mediate conflicts is further magnified in case they are able to bring on board regional organizations that they are an important part of, writes Yaroslav Lissovolik, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
🔗 Small Countries as Key Agents in Peace Mediation
#Valdai_WorldEconomy #conflicts
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Small Countries as Key Agents in Peace Mediation
Amid the spikes in geopolitical risk witnessed in recent years, there may be a need to explore some of the reserves in international mediation and diplomacy, including those pertaining to the mediation roles of regional organizations and small advanced economies.
🌏 Conflicts in international relations in East Asia manifest themselves no less, if not more, than in Europe. However, they are based on slightly different reasons than in the Occidental world.
Unlike the conditional West, which developed under the auspices of a single Christian civilisation, in East Asia such confessional and cultural groupings as Confucian-Buddhist, Islamic, and Christian coexist with each other.
The forms of the socio-political system are also more diverse in East Asia: authoritarian regimes coexist there with democracies, and the scale of “authoritarianism” and “democracy” there is much wider than in the Euro-Atlantic space. Under these conditions, it turns out to be practically impossible to ensure any consensus on common “norms and rules” that should underlie the general order, which in the West yields conflict at the systemic level.
It should also be taken into account that, unlike in Europe, where crises like the Ukrainian one are associated with the problematic and ambiguous legacy of the Cold War and the post-bipolar world order, a significant proportion of the conflicts in East Asia are rooted in more distant historical eras — colonial and even pre-colonial.
The states of East Asia, being the product of national liberation from colonial or semi-colonial dependence on the West, value their independence and national sovereignty to a much greater extent than the European countries, which often quietly transfer part of their prerogatives, including issues of foreign policy and security, to supranational institutions, as in the case of the EU or NATO, writes Valdai Club expert Dmitry Streltsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/conflicts-in-east-asia-how-are-they-different/
#ModernDiplomacy #Asia #conflicts
@valdai_club
Unlike the conditional West, which developed under the auspices of a single Christian civilisation, in East Asia such confessional and cultural groupings as Confucian-Buddhist, Islamic, and Christian coexist with each other.
The forms of the socio-political system are also more diverse in East Asia: authoritarian regimes coexist there with democracies, and the scale of “authoritarianism” and “democracy” there is much wider than in the Euro-Atlantic space. Under these conditions, it turns out to be practically impossible to ensure any consensus on common “norms and rules” that should underlie the general order, which in the West yields conflict at the systemic level.
It should also be taken into account that, unlike in Europe, where crises like the Ukrainian one are associated with the problematic and ambiguous legacy of the Cold War and the post-bipolar world order, a significant proportion of the conflicts in East Asia are rooted in more distant historical eras — colonial and even pre-colonial.
The states of East Asia, being the product of national liberation from colonial or semi-colonial dependence on the West, value their independence and national sovereignty to a much greater extent than the European countries, which often quietly transfer part of their prerogatives, including issues of foreign policy and security, to supranational institutions, as in the case of the EU or NATO, writes Valdai Club expert Dmitry Streltsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/conflicts-in-east-asia-how-are-they-different/
#ModernDiplomacy #Asia #conflicts
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Conflicts in East Asia: How Are They Different From Europe?
Both in Europe and in East Asia, international crises periodically flare up, fraught with the threat of growing from the regional to the global level. Conflicts in international relations in East Asia manifest themselves no less, if not more, than in Europe.…
🌏🌎 Events in the Middle East have pushed the fighting in Ukraine to the background of the media agenda.
Meanwhile, the development of the situation there hardly speaks in favour of the strength of the post-bipolar status quo. A sign of such strength could be Russia's return to the status of a defeated power and the final consolidation of the results of the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the facts tell a different story.
The widely advertised and expensively purchased offensive of the Ukrainian army has not met its objectives. The Russian army is slowly but inevitably increasing pressure at the front. Economic sanctions did not lead to the collapse of the Russian economy. Despite extensive damage, it quickly adapts to new conditions. The West also failed to isolate Russia politically.
For the Western partners of the Ukrainian authorities, the conflict is becoming more and more expensive. Its price may increase in the future, taking into account the knocking out of Soviet-made equipment from the armed forces of Ukraine and the growing need for new supplies. Ukraine's economy also requires external injections amid military losses, demographic failure and persistent governance problems, including corruption.
If the Ukrainian conflict was the only problem for the United States in controlling the post-bipolar order, then there might be fewer risks for it.
The bottom line is that the tactical gains from the conflict in Ukraine turn into a major diplomatic defeat for Washington in the form of an increase in the number of influential opponents where there were all the conditions to avoid this. For the EU, the strategic costs of the conflict, despite its tactical advantages, have turned out to be even greater.
It cannot be ruled out that in such conditions the United States and its allies will reconsider their ideas about defeating Russia in the Ukrainian conflict at any cost. The big question is how Moscow will reconsider its approache, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/from-the-middle-east-to-ukraine-a-milestone/
#EconomicStatecraft #conflicts #WorldOrder
🗣 🗣 🗣
Meanwhile, the development of the situation there hardly speaks in favour of the strength of the post-bipolar status quo. A sign of such strength could be Russia's return to the status of a defeated power and the final consolidation of the results of the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the facts tell a different story.
The widely advertised and expensively purchased offensive of the Ukrainian army has not met its objectives. The Russian army is slowly but inevitably increasing pressure at the front. Economic sanctions did not lead to the collapse of the Russian economy. Despite extensive damage, it quickly adapts to new conditions. The West also failed to isolate Russia politically.
For the Western partners of the Ukrainian authorities, the conflict is becoming more and more expensive. Its price may increase in the future, taking into account the knocking out of Soviet-made equipment from the armed forces of Ukraine and the growing need for new supplies. Ukraine's economy also requires external injections amid military losses, demographic failure and persistent governance problems, including corruption.
If the Ukrainian conflict was the only problem for the United States in controlling the post-bipolar order, then there might be fewer risks for it.
The bottom line is that the tactical gains from the conflict in Ukraine turn into a major diplomatic defeat for Washington in the form of an increase in the number of influential opponents where there were all the conditions to avoid this. For the EU, the strategic costs of the conflict, despite its tactical advantages, have turned out to be even greater.
It cannot be ruled out that in such conditions the United States and its allies will reconsider their ideas about defeating Russia in the Ukrainian conflict at any cost. The big question is how Moscow will reconsider its approache, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/from-the-middle-east-to-ukraine-a-milestone/
#EconomicStatecraft #conflicts #WorldOrder
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Valdai Club
From the Middle East to Ukraine. A Milestone
The outcome of the Ukrainian conflict, whenever it occurs, will be a fundamental milestone in the order that is taking shape right before our eyes, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
🌍 The problem of ensuring peace and security continues to be one of the key challenges facing African countries, which, of course, creates certain obstacles to sustainable development.
Protests in Africa vary in nature and intensity. In some countries, they have developed into a protracted civil war between various factions, while in other countries they’ve managed to proceed with fewer casualties.
We propose dividing all conflicts on the African continent into four broad categories:
1️⃣ Inter-ethnic conflicts. Their emergence is due to the fact that almost all African states, with rare exceptions, are very multinational and obviously the tribes and peoples living in a particular territory sometimes have insoluble contradictions that are resolved by force.
2️⃣ Border conflicts – caused by the fact that state borders in African countries, in most cases, do not coincide with the boundaries of tribes and nationalities, since when dividing Africa, the European colonial powers did not take into account the boundaries between the ancient territories of various African peoples.
3️⃣ Religious conflicts – usually associated with the growth of Islamic fundamentalism and extremism, which further aggravates emerging conflicts.
4️⃣ Conflicts on socio-economic grounds – in many African countries there are many socio-economic problems, which can also ignite protest sentiments.
Information technology, primarily social media and artificial intelligence (AI), is an effective tool that can spark conflict in almost any state on the continent, writes Konstantin Pantserev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-role-of-advanced-technologies-in-destabilising/
#GlobalAlternatives #Africa #conflicts
🗣 🗣 🗣
Protests in Africa vary in nature and intensity. In some countries, they have developed into a protracted civil war between various factions, while in other countries they’ve managed to proceed with fewer casualties.
We propose dividing all conflicts on the African continent into four broad categories:
Information technology, primarily social media and artificial intelligence (AI), is an effective tool that can spark conflict in almost any state on the continent, writes Konstantin Pantserev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-role-of-advanced-technologies-in-destabilising/
#GlobalAlternatives #Africa #conflicts
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Valdai Club
The Role of Advanced Technologies in Destabilising the Political Situation in Sub-Saharan Africa
The problem of ensuring peace and security continues to be one of the key challenges facing African countries, which, of course, creates certain obstacles to sustainable development. Protests in Africa vary in nature and intensity. In some countries they…
👥 Some countries in the Middle East remain hotbeds of tension for many years and even decades, generating flows of refugees and internally displaced persons.
Especially for the 13th Middle East Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, we created an infographic on modern conflicts in the Middle East. The high-res infographic is available on the website.
#MiddleEastValdai #valdai_infogaphics #conflicts #MiddleEast
🗣 🗣 🗣
Especially for the 13th Middle East Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, we created an infographic on modern conflicts in the Middle East. The high-res infographic is available on the website.
#MiddleEastValdai #valdai_infogaphics #conflicts #MiddleEast
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