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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On May 30 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey.

The presidential elections in Turkey are in the focus of the international political and expert community. In the first round, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won 49.52% of the vote, beating opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu by almost 5%. The results of the first round show that the preferences of voters were divided between the main candidates almost equally, which is why the results of the second round are of particular interest both at home and abroad.

Amid the current geopolitical conditions, Turkey retains its key importance for Russia. The country seeks to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and is an active participant in the Black Sea grain deal, which was extended on May 17. Moreover, after the closure of European airspace for Russian aircraft, the main tourist and business flows from Russia have taken place through Turkey.

What can Moscow expect from Turkey's foreign and domestic policy after the elections?
Will there be continuity in Ankara's political course towards Russia?
Which areas will be affected by the changes, and which areas of cooperation can be developed?

Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

🎙 Speakers:

🇹🇷 Hasan Selim Özertem, political analyst, Turkey 

🇷🇺 Pavel Shlykov, Associate Professor, Department of History of the Countries of the Near and Middle East, ISAA, Lomonosov Moscow State University, RIAC expert

🇹🇷 Hasan Ünal, Professor, Maltepe University (Turkey)

🇷🇺🇹🇷 Alexei Yerkhov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Turkey @embrusturkey @MFARussia

Moderator:

🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-results-of-the-presidential-elections-in-turkiye/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the TwitterTelegram and Zen.

#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections

@valdai_club
TODAY at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey.

What can Moscow expect from Turkey's foreign and domestic policy after the elections?
Will there be continuity in Ankara's political course towards Russia?
Which areas will be affected by the changes, and which areas of cooperation can be developed?

Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the TwitterTelegram and Zen.

#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections

@valdai_club
🇹🇷 Turkey’s Election Results as a Triumph of Multipolarity

On May 30, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey that ended on May 28. Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Club, acted as a moderator.

💬 “It is very important that the electoral process went on as a whole on a regular basis, without any special problems, conflicts, incidents, protests, complaints, and so on,” said Alexei Yerkhov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Turkey, emphasising that even the West did not put forward serious claims that make it possible to doubt the legitimacy of the Turkish elections, and is unlikely to put them forward. The diplomat additionally pointed to the competent and professionally correct work of the Turkish media and the exceptionally clear work of the election commissions. Addressing the consequences of the elections, he noted that in the structures of the legislative and executive power of Turkey, there will most likely be a rotation, and many new faces will appear. “Then, I am sure, work will continue on the further development of mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation. We have many projects, ideas, and plans,” he concluded.

💬 Hassan Unala professor at the Turkish University of Maltepe, called the election results in Turkey a triumph of multipolarity over unipolarity. According to him, those who wanted to keep Turkey within the framework of a unipolar world, on the side of the collective West, had lost. “President Erdogan came to power as a darling of the European Union and the West, but after a while he completely distanced himself from this foreign policy, going towards rapprochement with Russia,” Unal explained. He considers the current foreign policy course to be in the interests of Turkey and its people, since the pro-Western vector preferred by the opposition and attempts to join the EU would mean serious strategic concessions, including possibly implementing anti-Russian sanctions, which would have devastating consequences for the Turkish economy.

💬 Pavel Shlykov, Associate Professor at the Department of History of the Countries of the Near and Middle East at ISAA Moscow State University and RIAC expert, believes that big changes await the Turkish authorities. Among the key tasks that Erdogan will face in domestic politics, he noted the restoration of the country after the earthquake, the withdrawal of Turkey from the economic crisis, the solution of the refugee problem and an increase in the rating of the Justice and Development Party. In foreign policy, the old trends will continue: the restoration of relations with the UAE and the Gulf countries, the search for a compromise with Greece and Egypt, as well as ways of reconciliation with Syria. Discussing the future of Russian-Turkish relations, Shlykov pointed out that although our points of view do not always coincide, Turkey and Russia are able to create a mode of dialogue.

💬 Hasan Selim Ozerteman Ankara-based political analyst, believes that political stability awaits Turkey in the next five years, and the economy will become a priority for the government in the near future. Foreign policy, in his opinion, will be multi-vector and autonomous. In particular, he expects a reset in relations between Turkey and the United States in light of the upcoming US elections and strengthening economic relations with the countries of Central Asia. As for Russia, it will continue to be regarded as one of Turkey's main partners, Ozertem is convinced.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/turkey-s-election-results-as-a-triumph-of-multipolarity/

#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections

@valdai_club
🇹🇷 Relations with Russia would be one of the key issues for Turkey as multipolarity gains momentum, but Ankara’s foreign adventures would go beyond.

For example, it is more likely than not that Turkey will continue with its search for possibilities and benefits in the emerging multipolar world. It will probably carry on a doubling down of its interest in the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and it will lead, as much as it can, the Organisation of the Turkish States, because numerous factors seem to dictate this multi-faceted and multi-dimensional foreign policy.

All evidence suggests that now, following his victory in the fiercely-contested election, Erdogan will navigate through its own route because this is roughly what the country’s prerequisites dictate. It is true that had the utterly pro-Western opposition won the elections they would have endeavoured to alter Turkey’s course, but even they would have found it quite difficult, if not impossible, to do so, without causing havoc in Ankara’s overall foreign relations. 

Although it seems certain that Ankara will be engaged more and more in multilateral policy in the emerging multipolarity, what needs to be borne in mind is that Turkey will have to do all this while remaining in NATO.

Turkey is not and will not be fighting for multipolarity to prevail but it will/would be set to benefit from that, writes Hasan Ünal.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-should-we-make-of-erdogan-s-latest-moves/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey

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🌾 The Ukrainian Grain Deal after Russia’s Withdrawal: A Peace Bridge or a Gordian Knot in the Black Sea?

The situation underscores that Russia's decision to pull out of the grain deal extends beyond mere financial considerations. Although current sanctions have constrained Russia's export agility, their impact remains limited. However, the Kremlin contends that the agreement primarily serves Ukraine's interests, with commitments made to Moscow being sidelined. Within this context, Moscow's demands were consistent with the July 2022 framework. 

The prevailing narrative from Russia indicates a preference for tangible actions over suggested alternatives as a condition for re-engaging in the grain deal. In this equation, Turkey and the UN Secretary-General emerge as potential mediators to persuade Russia. 

President Erdogan underlines the importance of the grain deal, which he calls “the peace bridge.” Thus, the reinstatement of this deal would bolster Turkey's global reputation and further its economic interests, writes Hasan Selim Özertem.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-grain-deal-after-russia-s-withdrawal/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #graindeal

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🇹🇷 The new presidential term of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who won the elections on May 28, 2023, fully reflects the key trends in Turkey’s political transformation over the past decade.

📍The most noticeable is the large-scale and consistent consolidation in the hands of the president of monopoly control over all branches of power

📍The dismantling of institutional checks and balances on presidential power, both on the part of state institutions and civil society

📍Desecularisation of public life in Turkey in general, especially in the sphere of education  

📍The offensive foreign policy, with the deepening of its militarisation and de-Westernisation 

On the way to his third presidential term, Erdoğan faced the biggest political challenge of his career. The rapid economic growth that characterised his early years at the head of Turkey gave way to a long-term financial and economic crisis. The Turkish lira over the past five years has depreciated more than five sixths against the dollar and the euro, losing more than 38% in the aftermath of the elections. 

Erdoğan and his supporters will have to seriously prepare for the municipal elections in the spring of 2024, in which the AKP plans to regain control of the largest cities – the capitals Ankara and Istanbul, as well as Antalya.

The municipal elections scheduled for March 2024 will be another major electoral test for Erdoğan. The president considers them “decisive” and regards them as a kind of vote of confidencePavel Shlykov writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/erdogan-s-new-term-what-changes-in-turkish-policy/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Turkey #Erdoğan

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🇹🇷🇵🇸🇮🇱 In the aftermath of the breakout of the another regional crisis in the Middle East, Ankara was cautious before taking sides and called for an immediate ceasefire.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proactively sought a diplomatic solution by employing telephone diplomacy and dispatching Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the capitals in the region. Ankara’s message was clear: there is a need for a two-state solution, and the international community should work on a political framework after a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages between the parties. Ankara’s position reflects Turkey’s traditional foreign policy on the Palestinian issue, which it has maintained for decades.

AK Party officials, with President Erdogan at the helm, were careful to avoid bashing Israel and PM Benjamin Netanyahu as the humanitarian crisis deepened in the first two weeks. Instead, President Erdogan vocally questioned the increasing presence of the US military in the region, as aircraft carriers approached the Eastern Mediterranean, and called for humanitarian assistance to be allowed to be sent via the Rafah border. 

An incident at al-Ahli ignites a stark transformation in Ankara's diplomatic voice, revealing the deep undercurrents of ideology and domestic politics that could reconfigure regional alliances and reshape Turkey's geopolitical path, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/israel-hamas-conflict-shifting-discourses-Turkey/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #HAMAS #Israel

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🇹🇷🇮🇱 The IDF's Operation Iron Swords in the Gaza Strip is exceptional in its scale and duration, as well as due to numerous associated consequences, including Turkey’s decision to suspend trade ties with Israel.

In early April of this year, the Turkish Ministry of Trade suspended 54 categories of goods from being exported to Israel, ranging from construction materials to aviation fuel. Ankara said the introduction of restrictions had been motivated by the “gross violations of international law” the IDF had committed during Operation Iron Swords, and declared a ceasefire as a condition for the lifting of sanctions. In the first days of May, citing the same reasons, Turkish authorities announced a complete cessation of export and import transactions with Israel.

A new round of disagreements between the two states risks aggravating the internal political situation in Israel and its position in the system of international economic relations. Additionally, it signals that the Israeli leadership has not sufficiently elaborated its regional strategy, despite the country’s desire to continue normalisation with its neighbours, writes Elizaveta Yakimova.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/trade-adversaries-the-impact-of-the-idf-military/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Turkey #Israel

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🇹🇷🌏 Over the past years, Turkey has been successfully fostering unity among Turkic-speaking peoples, and receiving economic and political dividends.

The Central Asian states gained independence more than thirty years ago and the region has largely remained outside the field of vision of the Western powers, which recognise it as being within Russia’s sphere of influence. However, this region has great mineral resources and infrastructure potential, which makes it a testing ground for diplomatic battles involving new political players.

Obviously, now it is the perfect time to redistribute spheres of influence in this region, because Russia is busy addressing the Ukraine crisis, and the majority of the population of Central Asia is a generation that grew up after the fall of the Soviet Union and is free of its cultural influence. Thanks to this, Turkey has an undeniable advantage there, which it certainly uses.

By promoting the idea of a shared past helps to establish relationships in completely different areas, Turkey is penetrating into the areas of defence, energy and culture, becoming a real counterweight to Russia, Anna Machina writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-challenge/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Turkey #CentralAsia

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