🌏 Strategic Behaviour of Asia in an Era of Turbulence: Day 1 of the Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club

On Monday, December 4, 2023, the 14th Asian Conference of the Valdai Club opened in Moscow with the participation of experts from India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Thailand, Mongolia and Japan. On the first day of the conference, two working sessions took place.

1️⃣ During the first, open session, the broadcast of which is available on the valdaiclub.com website, experts discussed the most important processes of regional development in Asia. Timofei Bordachev, programme director of the Valdai Club, noted that for a long time Russian policy was predicated on the belief that Asia is a region of peace and sustainable development, that it is not subject to the destructive trends observed in Europe. Today, processes are taking place that raise alarm about how relations between Russia and Asia will develop amid less favourable international political conditions.

2️⃣ The second, closed-door session was devoted to the potential for easing international tension. During the session, the thesis was expressed that the only conflict in Asia that threatens Russian strategic interests is the conflict between India and China.

Read an article about the first day of the Asian Valdai: https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/strategic-behaviour-of-asia-in-an-era-of-turbulence-day-1-of-the-asian-conference/

#AsianValdai #Asia

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🌐 The science of international relations knows three basic types of behaviour of states in relation to the existing international order: powers with permanent status (status quo), revisionist powers, and revolutionary powers. 

Nowadays it is impossible to find a large or medium-sized state that would set as its goal the complete destruction of the world order that arose after the Second World War and received its main attributes in the second half of the 20th century.

1️⃣ First, none of the big powers feels completely humiliated as far as its basic interests and values are concerned. Whether we like it or not, the Second World War led to a situation in which none of the major players remained outside the space for making major decisions.

2️⃣ Second, the fact that several great powers possess nuclear weapons renders completely futile any attempts to organise a decisive attack against the order that they generally support. Even if a country like India goes crazy and decides to fight those who lead the modern world, it would hardly be able to hold out for a relatively long time.

At the same time, the leading nuclear powers themselves, as well as average regional players, are not completely satisfied with the existing order; they strive to “edit” it and are, thus, revisionists.

The revisionism of Russia and China extends to those aspects of the modern international order that are better designed to serve the interests of the United States and its European allies. At the same time, Russia is, of course, in a more advantageous position than its Chinese ally, since the question for it is not a question of lack of control over part of its sovereign territory.

Historical experience confirms that revisionists always emerge victorious, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/total-revisionism-of-world-politics/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #WorldOrder #revisionism

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🇷🇺🌏 Russia – Asia: A New Stage of Cooperation. Day 2 of the 14th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club

On Tuesday, December 5, 2023, the 14th Asian Conference of the Valdai Club ended. On this day, two open sessions were broadcast live on the Club’s website.

3️⃣ The third session was devoted to the issues of globalisation and regionalisation raised the day before.

4️⃣ Participants in the fourth session discussed the achievements and potential of relations between Russia and Asian countries. Over the past year and a half, economic relations have been developing at an unprecedented pace. 

Read an article about the second day of the Asian Valdai: https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/russia-asia-a-new-stage-of-cooperation-day-2-of-the-14th-asian-conference/

#AsianValdai #Asia

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🧩🌐 In the case of environmental degradation is global warming, whereas in the case of globalization degradation it is global harming.

The world has several poles now, like the USA, China, EU, and BRICS. Regionalism is the ineluctable byproduct of the interaction between the multiple poles of political power in the world. It is also a byproduct of another tendency amongst nations, i. e. to move away from multilateralism towards minilateralism.

Multilateral institutions like the UN and WTO have apparently failed to resolve serious conflicts and differences between the member states. As a result, small groups which share an agenda on geo-politics and economics have started emerging.

The world today and particularly the developing nations need a humane and inclusive mode of globalisation. Erecting tariff barriers and sanctioning competitors in the name of de-risking and decoupling is fuelling unnecessary tensions in an already anarchic world state system and preventing a common approach to combat poverty, hunger, disease and the vagaries of climate change.

All nations need to respect the economic and security sensitivities of others, writes Raashid Wali Janjua, Director Research at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI).

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/globalisation-and-regionalisation-approaches/

📌 The article was prepared especially for the Valdai Club’s 14th Asian Conference.

#AsianValdai #Asia_and_Eurasia #globalisation

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🇪🇺 The Ukrainian crisis itself was, to a certain extent, the result of the fact that the continental Europe has lost all ability to be strategically independent.

This occurred as part of a gradual process that combined the consequences of the events of the middle of the last century and the failure of attempts to build a genuine political union on the basis of European integration, combining this with the expansion of the membership and the creation of a common economic policy through financial instruments within the Eurozone.

The actual position of Europeans in world politics is increasingly consistent with how we might see it in terms of abstract assessments of the relationship with the United States and their ability to act independently, Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/consequences-of-europe-s-strategic-failure/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #EU #Europe

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🗣 2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣3️⃣ The year 2023 has shown that Greater Eurasia and Asia are, so far, resistant to negative external influences, which have had the most dramatic consequences in Europe and the Middle East.

There are no opposing military-political alliances in Asia and Eurasia, and the so-called “geopolitical fault lines” only exist in the imagination of especially impressible readers of American newspapers. This is due to peculiarities of the political culture there, but also to the general trends of international life at the present stage.

1️⃣ First, despite the fact that this macroregion has its own experience of severe interstate confrontation, turning to violent conflict as the go-to means of achieving goals is not a central part of the foreign policy culture here.

In other words, when the peoples of the West take arms and see conflict as the solution to difficult situations, the peaceful resolution of disputes is preferable for Asia and Eurasia.

2️⃣ Second, the associations of states emerging in Asia and Eurasia are not aimed at achieving aggressive goals in relation to third countries. They are primarily aimed at implementing the development goals of their members and maintaining their internal stability. Therefore, now in Asia and Eurasia there are no unions created to ensure a privileged position for their members in relation to the rest of the macroregion.

3️⃣ Third, within the macroregion there are no relatively large states that would act as “agents” of extra-regional actors. The only countries that may be an exception in this sense are Japan and South Korea.

Asia and Eurasia remain a space of cooperation, not competition, and the leading regional powers are able to achieve terms that would be comparatively fair for their smaller partners, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/asia-and-eurasia-in-2023-shaping-a-new-internation/

#valdai_year2023 #Asia_and_Eurasia #Eurasia #Asia

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🌏 More international cooperation in Asia is on the horizon.

There is always hope that such cooperation may reap the benefits of globalisation and regionalisation in such a way that globalisation helps facilitate conditions conducive to addressing common issues and challenges, especially when the global economy is fragmented, and regionalisation or regional cooperation promotes understandings and activities that would address domestic issues or challenges at the same time, writes Dr. Pornchai Danvivathana, Secretary General, Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD). 

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/international-cooperation-in-asia/

#WiderEurasia #Asia #globalisation

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🌏 Northeast Asia: How Far Can Confrontation Go?

Recently, increasingly alarming news has been coming from Northeast Asia. The situation on the Korean Peninsula is escalating again — Pyongyang and Seoul are exchanging threatening statements and demonstrating their determination in every possible way, including the firing of artillery in the sea in the immediate vicinity of the demarcation line. 

Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, believes that while the situation on the Korean Peninsula may be approaching the boiling point, it is unlikely that either side will cross the proverbial red line and spark another military conflict near the borders of the Russian Federation.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/northeast-asia-how-far-can-confrontation/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Asia #KoreanPenisula

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