🌎🌏 US hegemony has all but come to an end and the rise of a multipolar world has effected a redistribution of power at the global stage.
American leadership, that would have been essential to catalysing collective action against the pandemic, bordered on wanting to island itself from the rest of the world much before former US President Trump launched the “America First” campaign. The utopian vision of interdependence and global cooperation had already taken a beating in Europe when Brexit demolished the ideological and institutional underpinnings of the European Union. And China, the other great power, was engaged in its project ‘Pax Sinica’, determined to make globalisation beneficial for its Communist party.
Global institutions had weakened, and the benefits of investing political will into their mechanisms had greatly receded. The coronavirus further exacerbated this: While nations scrambled to respond to this fast-spreading disease, their immediate reaction was to look inwards, go at it alone or with trusted partners, and engage with the international community only for self-serving purposes. At the end of the day, all were ‘Darwinian’ and privileged their own survival without consideration and care for others. This is typified by the perverse ‘Vaccine Access’ world map.
The evolving contours of modern geopolitics is still in a state of flux, and there is wisdom in accepting the notion that the end result is perhaps indeterminable. The age of disruption is here, countries that thrive on disorder may do well in the short term, while nations who invest in stability may well define the future of globalisation and, indeed, the new world order, write Samir Saran and Aarshi Tirkey @orftg.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/a--race-through-chaos-to-stability/
#Global_Governance @valdai_club
American leadership, that would have been essential to catalysing collective action against the pandemic, bordered on wanting to island itself from the rest of the world much before former US President Trump launched the “America First” campaign. The utopian vision of interdependence and global cooperation had already taken a beating in Europe when Brexit demolished the ideological and institutional underpinnings of the European Union. And China, the other great power, was engaged in its project ‘Pax Sinica’, determined to make globalisation beneficial for its Communist party.
Global institutions had weakened, and the benefits of investing political will into their mechanisms had greatly receded. The coronavirus further exacerbated this: While nations scrambled to respond to this fast-spreading disease, their immediate reaction was to look inwards, go at it alone or with trusted partners, and engage with the international community only for self-serving purposes. At the end of the day, all were ‘Darwinian’ and privileged their own survival without consideration and care for others. This is typified by the perverse ‘Vaccine Access’ world map.
The evolving contours of modern geopolitics is still in a state of flux, and there is wisdom in accepting the notion that the end result is perhaps indeterminable. The age of disruption is here, countries that thrive on disorder may do well in the short term, while nations who invest in stability may well define the future of globalisation and, indeed, the new world order, write Samir Saran and Aarshi Tirkey @orftg.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/a--race-through-chaos-to-stability/
#Global_Governance @valdai_club
Valdai Club
Modern Geopolitics: A Race Through Chaos to Stability
The evolving contours of modern geopolitics is still in a state of flux, and there is wisdom in accepting the notion that the end result is perhaps indeterminable. The age of disruption is here, countries that thrive on disorder may do well in the short term…
🗽🌐 Liberal hegemony has been the most vigorous international order of the postwar era, transforming much of the world in its image.
The US-led liberal international order is inspired by a combination of Wilson’s idealism and Roosevelt’s realism. It took shape in the middle years of the twentieth century and was formulated in terms of a commitment to an Atlantic-based system of universal values. The liberal international order is based on universal rules, market-based economies and democratic communities, grounded in a set of norms, rules and institutions that reflect liberal principles, with the US acting as the ultimate guarantor. In the postwar years this ‘liberal subsystem’ took shape in the West and according to John Ikenberry was made up of five main features: co-binding security arrangements, penetrated reciprocal hegemony, the integration of semi-sovereign and partial Great Powers, economic openness, and civic identity.
The liberal international order combines military, economic and political (normative) sub-orders, each operating according to a specific dynamic but coalescing to create a polymorphic and energetic model of global order.
Democratic internationalism promoted by post-Cold War liberal internationalism is based on the expansionist logic of an order that essentially claims to have ready-made solutions to problems of peace, governance, development and human community.
👉 This represents an unprecedented cultural revolution that shapes international politics today, writes Richard Sakwa, Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent at Canterbury.
#Global_Governance
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-cultural-revolution-of-the-west-and-world/
The US-led liberal international order is inspired by a combination of Wilson’s idealism and Roosevelt’s realism. It took shape in the middle years of the twentieth century and was formulated in terms of a commitment to an Atlantic-based system of universal values. The liberal international order is based on universal rules, market-based economies and democratic communities, grounded in a set of norms, rules and institutions that reflect liberal principles, with the US acting as the ultimate guarantor. In the postwar years this ‘liberal subsystem’ took shape in the West and according to John Ikenberry was made up of five main features: co-binding security arrangements, penetrated reciprocal hegemony, the integration of semi-sovereign and partial Great Powers, economic openness, and civic identity.
The liberal international order combines military, economic and political (normative) sub-orders, each operating according to a specific dynamic but coalescing to create a polymorphic and energetic model of global order.
Democratic internationalism promoted by post-Cold War liberal internationalism is based on the expansionist logic of an order that essentially claims to have ready-made solutions to problems of peace, governance, development and human community.
👉 This represents an unprecedented cultural revolution that shapes international politics today, writes Richard Sakwa, Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent at Canterbury.
#Global_Governance
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-cultural-revolution-of-the-west-and-world/
Valdai Club
The Cultural Revolution of the West and World Politics
In 1945 the US agreed to compromise its unfettered freedom of action in international affairs in the belief that engagement with allies and adversaries through multilateral agencies would avoid the pitfalls of the interwar period while rendering US power…
🇨🇳 Double Circulation is a new buzzword that now frequently appears in the Chinese media and official narratives; but what does it actually mean?
Entering into a new phase of its development, China has identified the imperative need to build a healthier and more balanced economic structure to ensure continued and sustainable growth.
The “Double Circulation” strategy, or “Shuang Xun Huan” in Mandarin Chinese, was hence evolved to confirm that China’s relevance and engagement in the global economy must be maintained, while simultaneously acknowledging that more effort will be required to lay a strong and solid foundation at home that will carry the country into a more promising future. Lifting a few hundred million people out of poverty is indeed an achievement worthy of universal acknowledgment, but the Chinese government should not rest on its laurels just yet.
As the dominating political force in the country, the declared mission of the Communist Party of China is to lead the Chinese people to achieve even greater success and prosperity. However, with a population of 1.4 billion and being the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries around the world, even a slight change in the country’s strategic focus will have far-reaching repercussions.
For good or bad, the growing but unwanted confrontation between China and the US in recent years, started by Donald Trump and now escalated by his successor in the White House, is a wake-up call for China to check on its preparedness for global competition, and to effectively handle the organised attacks from the US to contain China’s rise, writes Nelson Wong, Vice Chairman of the Shanghai Centre for RimPac Strategic and International Studies.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/is-china-really-retreating-understanding/
#Global_Governance @valdai_club
Entering into a new phase of its development, China has identified the imperative need to build a healthier and more balanced economic structure to ensure continued and sustainable growth.
The “Double Circulation” strategy, or “Shuang Xun Huan” in Mandarin Chinese, was hence evolved to confirm that China’s relevance and engagement in the global economy must be maintained, while simultaneously acknowledging that more effort will be required to lay a strong and solid foundation at home that will carry the country into a more promising future. Lifting a few hundred million people out of poverty is indeed an achievement worthy of universal acknowledgment, but the Chinese government should not rest on its laurels just yet.
As the dominating political force in the country, the declared mission of the Communist Party of China is to lead the Chinese people to achieve even greater success and prosperity. However, with a population of 1.4 billion and being the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries around the world, even a slight change in the country’s strategic focus will have far-reaching repercussions.
For good or bad, the growing but unwanted confrontation between China and the US in recent years, started by Donald Trump and now escalated by his successor in the White House, is a wake-up call for China to check on its preparedness for global competition, and to effectively handle the organised attacks from the US to contain China’s rise, writes Nelson Wong, Vice Chairman of the Shanghai Centre for RimPac Strategic and International Studies.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/is-china-really-retreating-understanding/
#Global_Governance @valdai_club
Valdai Club
Is China Really Retreating? Understanding ‘Double Circulation’ to Avoid Double Confusion
Cross-border trade and investment of the 21st century should be protected based on the principle of a level playing field and that any proposed change of the rules, if any, must be discussed and agreed upon by all stakeholders within the framework of the…
🇦🇫🇹🇯🇺🇿 Many experts on Afghanistan argue that without the permission of the Taliban, such extremist and terrorist groups will not violate the borders of the CIS member states, but the experience of the 90s suggests otherwise.
The recent events in Afghanistan have clearly shown once again that the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia should closely cooperate within such authoritative international regional organisations as the CSTO and the SCO in order to protect their sovereignty and national independence, writes Khudoberdi Kholiknazar, Director of the Center for the Study of Central Asia and China.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-afghan-threat-to-central-asia/
#Global_Governance #Afghanistan #Taliban
@valdai_club
The recent events in Afghanistan have clearly shown once again that the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia should closely cooperate within such authoritative international regional organisations as the CSTO and the SCO in order to protect their sovereignty and national independence, writes Khudoberdi Kholiknazar, Director of the Center for the Study of Central Asia and China.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-afghan-threat-to-central-asia/
#Global_Governance #Afghanistan #Taliban
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
The Afghan Threat to Central Asia
The hasty withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan which began in May 2021 has already created a series of problems for the countries which border it. The first and most acute problem for all of Afghanistan's neighbours was the influx of Afghan refugees.
♟ 🌐The United States and the leading EU countries form specific policies towards those who entrust their survival to Russia or China, taking into account what role Moscow or Beijing play in their fate. It is the conflict between the United States and Russia that determines the actions Washington or Berlin takes in relation to, for example, Armenia or Belarus, and not the actual bilateral relations.
Russia also cannot proceed from the assumption that fully ordinary bilateral diplomacy exists in relations with Lithuania or Romania. An opposite example is Russia's policy towards Pakistan, Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan - countries that have the resources necessary for independent survival and responsible foreign policy. China has tried to build traditional relations with the countries of Eastern Europe, but now these efforts are facing noticeable difficulties.
It is very likely that as international politics return to a dynamic balance of power, the leading powers will strive to ensure that their bilateral relations are limited to the circle of those who really have the ability to be responsible in their behaviour, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
#Global_Governance
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/from-proxy-wars-to-proxy-diplomacy/
Valdai Club
From Proxy Wars to Proxy Diplomacy
The beginning of August was marked by two events that, in the absence of their fundamental significance for the global agenda, are essential for understanding what international politics may look like in the future. First, there was a de facto rupture of…
🇪🇺 The new US administration of Joe Biden has given a new impetus to the debate in the European Union about its sovereignty vis-à-vis the USA and beyond — albeit in different directions.
While some dream of a back-to-normal reversion to familiar transatlantic relations, others see no fundamental change. These differences are not accidental and reflect the basic problems that have characterised Brussels’ efforts to play an independent role in world politics since debates on the EU’s “strategic autonomy” started in earnest.
“Strategic autonomy”, “strategic sovereignty” or “resilience” are currently the most popular terms which, in their generality and with different objectives, have one thing in common: to ensure the self-assertion of the European Union — and its member states — in an international environment that is perceived as increasingly uncomfortable and demanding.
While the logic of strategic autonomy is based on establishing the EU as an independent pole in a multipolar world, the concrete steps remain moderate, partly disparate, and the concepts vague with room for different projections, writes Valdai Club expert Hans-Joachim Spanger.
#Global_Governance
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-european-union-and-strategic-autonomy/
While some dream of a back-to-normal reversion to familiar transatlantic relations, others see no fundamental change. These differences are not accidental and reflect the basic problems that have characterised Brussels’ efforts to play an independent role in world politics since debates on the EU’s “strategic autonomy” started in earnest.
“Strategic autonomy”, “strategic sovereignty” or “resilience” are currently the most popular terms which, in their generality and with different objectives, have one thing in common: to ensure the self-assertion of the European Union — and its member states — in an international environment that is perceived as increasingly uncomfortable and demanding.
While the logic of strategic autonomy is based on establishing the EU as an independent pole in a multipolar world, the concrete steps remain moderate, partly disparate, and the concepts vague with room for different projections, writes Valdai Club expert Hans-Joachim Spanger.
#Global_Governance
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-european-union-and-strategic-autonomy/
Valdai Club
The European Union and ‘Strategic Autonomy’ — An Elusive Concept in the Making
While the logic of strategic autonomy is based on establishing the EU as an independent pole in a multipolar world, the concrete steps remain moderate, partly disparate, and the concepts vague with room for different projections, writes Valdai Club expert…
🇦🇫🇺🇸 We do not know if peace in Afghanistan becomes a reality. However, right now, for the first time in the past 40 years, internal political stabilisation in this country has the most solid foundation.
What the Taliban are doing or can do inside the country is not a reason for the general denial of their right to exist. The international context has changed, including in terms of the value dimension of politics and its role in making the most important decisions.
Strategically, the return of the radicals to power could lead to the stabilisation of the region, a significant decrease in the United States’ ability to influence its countries and the relative isolation of India, as the country that most closely connects its future with the West, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.
#Global_Governance #Afghanistan
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-fall-of-kabul-and-the-balance-of-power/
What the Taliban are doing or can do inside the country is not a reason for the general denial of their right to exist. The international context has changed, including in terms of the value dimension of politics and its role in making the most important decisions.
Strategically, the return of the radicals to power could lead to the stabilisation of the region, a significant decrease in the United States’ ability to influence its countries and the relative isolation of India, as the country that most closely connects its future with the West, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.
#Global_Governance #Afghanistan
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-fall-of-kabul-and-the-balance-of-power/
Valdai Club
The Fall of Kabul and the Balance of Power in Greater Eurasia
We do not know if peace in Afghanistan becomes a reality. However, right now, for the first time in the past 40 years, internal political stabilisation in this country has the most solid foundation, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.
🇦🇫🌏 NATO’s defeat in Afghanistan represents a wider defeat of the unipolar moment.
The US invaded Afghanistan as a response to terrorist attacks on September 11 2001, although Washington was somewhat open about the geopolitical objectives.
Since the beginning of the war, there was no shortage of analyses about how Afghanistan could be a bridgehead to assert US influence in the energy-rich Central Asian region and oust Russian and Chinese influence.
The offshore security strategy of both the UK and the US as de-facto island-states has throughout history been to prevent the emergence of a hegemon or collective hegemon in either Europe or Eurasia. In Europe, this entailed preventing a Russian-German alignment, and in the wider Eurasia it entailed obstructing a Russian-Chinese alignment.
The fall of Kabul will have profound implications for Central Asia and wider Eurasia — presenting both risks and opportunities. The risks associated with the Taliban in control of Afghanistan can be construed as an opportunity to test and advance the Greater Eurasian Partnership, writes Valdai Club expert Glenn Diesen.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/central-asia-and-eurasia-after-the-fall-of-kabul/
#Global_Governance #Afghanistan #TalibanTakeover #USwithdrawal
@valdai_club
The US invaded Afghanistan as a response to terrorist attacks on September 11 2001, although Washington was somewhat open about the geopolitical objectives.
Since the beginning of the war, there was no shortage of analyses about how Afghanistan could be a bridgehead to assert US influence in the energy-rich Central Asian region and oust Russian and Chinese influence.
The offshore security strategy of both the UK and the US as de-facto island-states has throughout history been to prevent the emergence of a hegemon or collective hegemon in either Europe or Eurasia. In Europe, this entailed preventing a Russian-German alignment, and in the wider Eurasia it entailed obstructing a Russian-Chinese alignment.
The fall of Kabul will have profound implications for Central Asia and wider Eurasia — presenting both risks and opportunities. The risks associated with the Taliban in control of Afghanistan can be construed as an opportunity to test and advance the Greater Eurasian Partnership, writes Valdai Club expert Glenn Diesen.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/central-asia-and-eurasia-after-the-fall-of-kabul/
#Global_Governance #Afghanistan #TalibanTakeover #USwithdrawal
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Central Asia and Eurasia after the Fall of Kabul
The fall of Kabul will have profound implications for Central Asia and wider Eurasia — presenting both risks and opportunities. The risks associated with the Taliban in control of Afghanistan can be construed as an opportunity to test and advance the Greater…
🇦🇫 What are the consequences of the emergence of the Taliban regime in the international arena?
At the first stage, the Taliban* will strengthen their power within the country. Any attempt to expand outside could cost them dearly, since it will cause a negative reaction from all neighbouring states. It will also deprive the Taliban of any chance at international recognition or foreign aid. Therefore, they can do this only in two cases: if the regime is on the verge of collapse and it needs an external enemy to rally the population around itself, or vice versa - the regime feels so sure that it embarks on a path of external expansion. Neither of these options is likely in the foreseeable future, writes Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University.
The Taliban's success will provide an important boost to other radical and extremist movements in the Muslim world.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/is-the-afghanistan-problem-really-global/
#Global_Governance #Taliban #Afghanistan
*banned in Russia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
At the first stage, the Taliban* will strengthen their power within the country. Any attempt to expand outside could cost them dearly, since it will cause a negative reaction from all neighbouring states. It will also deprive the Taliban of any chance at international recognition or foreign aid. Therefore, they can do this only in two cases: if the regime is on the verge of collapse and it needs an external enemy to rally the population around itself, or vice versa - the regime feels so sure that it embarks on a path of external expansion. Neither of these options is likely in the foreseeable future, writes Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University.
The Taliban's success will provide an important boost to other radical and extremist movements in the Muslim world.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/is-the-afghanistan-problem-really-global/
#Global_Governance #Taliban #Afghanistan
*banned in Russia
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Is the Afghanistan Problem Really Global?
The Afghan crisis is still on the front pages of the world media; politicians, diplomats, public figures and experts talk about it, and think tank conferences, multilateral negotiations and consultations are held. But this wave will soon subside, since the…
🗽🌐 The inglorious end of the US military intervention in Afghanistan (and in the Middle East) made it possible to speculate that the end of the domination of the Western powers in world affairs has finally come.
The only problem standing in the way of a more just international order is America’s inability to recognise the new balance of power in world politics and economics, Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/are-rules-of-the-game-possible/
#Global_Governance #globalism #politics #USA
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
The only problem standing in the way of a more just international order is America’s inability to recognise the new balance of power in world politics and economics, Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/are-rules-of-the-game-possible/
#Global_Governance #globalism #politics #USA
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
Are Rules of the Game Possible in the Era of Nuclear Weapons?
The inglorious end of the US military intervention in Afghanistan (and in the Middle East) made it possible to speculate that the end of the domination of the Western powers in world affairs has finally come. The only problem standing in the way of a more…