❓🇺🇦 Ukrainian сrisis forever?

Kiev wasn’t hiding its preparations for a military escalation.

In late March, online negotiations were held in a new version of the Normandy format: “4 minus 1”, that is, without Ukraine. After a long pause, consultations were held between the Chiefs of Staffs of Russia and the United States. However, the Russian perspective is very different from the Western one.

It has three key characteristics:

1️⃣ First, Russia focuses on regional stability and the conditions for maintaining it, which inevitably should be based on taking all the interests of the involved players into account.

2️⃣ Second, it proceeds from the fragility of political processes in the new countries of Eurasia that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

3️⃣ And, thirdly, it emphasises the need for motives to be transparent and for the behaviour of all actors to be predictable, because careless behaviour can lead to the destruction of political structures and violation of regional stability.

In other words, Russian analysts proceed from the value of human life as a key priority. From this perspective, the main objective is to prevent a big war, and not to fulfil the speculative dream of the triumph of freedom and democracy, not to create heaven on earth, but to prevent hell.

❓Are there any objective laws governing the development of this crisis that would make it possible to look at this process from above, rather than participate in its development?

👉 Andrey Sushentsov, Valdai Club Programme Director, shares his thoughts.

#Conflict_and_Leadership

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukrainian-crisis-forever/

📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On April 22, at 16:30 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will hold a discussion “Global ‘Greening’: A Threat or New Opportunities for Russia and the World?”

On April 22–23, US President Joe Biden will host a multilateral online climate summit. This summit should answer whether a roadmap for the global transition to carbon-neutral energy will be developed. The past pandemic year has led to a significant intensification of green transformation projects. Following the EU stating its intention to move towards carbon neutrality by 2050-60, the same was declared by the largest countries of the Asia-Pacific region: Japan, South Korea and China. With Joe Biden in power, the United States is also turning to the same agenda.

The global green transformation includes the progressive phasing-out of hydrocarbon fuel and the introduction of a carbon tax on products with a high carbon footprint. It is obvious that both of these steps can affect both the volumes of oil and gas exports from Russia and the competitiveness of Russian goods in the world.

❓How should Russia respond to the global green transformation?
❓What opportunities does Russia have to integrate into this process in a meaningful way?
❓How important will the US-sponsored summit be to the international green agenda?
❓Will the green transformation become a new factor of global inequality?

These and other questions will be answered by the participants of the discussion.

🎙Speakers:

🔹 Nikolay Durmanov, Special Representative for Biological and Environmental Security, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation

🔹 Nuritdin Inamov, Assistant to the Minister of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation

🔹 Mikhail Kuznetsov, Director of the Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution “Eastern State Planning Center”

🔹 Christof Van Agt, Director of Energy Dialogue, International Energy Forum

🔹 Anatol Lieven, Senior Research Fellow on Russia and Europe at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Moderator:

🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media! In order to be accredited for the event, fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763. 

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms used by the Valdai Club: on the website, on Facebook, Vkontakte, Instagram, Telegram, and Twitter.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-global-greening-challenges-and-opportunities/

🗽🌏🐉 Against all odds, threats and challenges, the world is moving steadily into a Pacific era powered by China’s large economy and consumer market, writes Nelson Wong, Vice Chairman of the Shanghai Centre for RimPac Strategic and International Studies.

Yet it is wrong to just believe that the world’s agenda will thus be set by the Asians from now on and that the West will soon be marginalised or left out of the game.

A better tomorrow for the world will not be achieved by a few countries’ attempt to contain China’s development, nor will it be determined by the outcome of confrontation between the US and China, or by splitting the world into two competing camps, as recent developments of world politics have shown.

A worldwide call for rational dialogues among global leaders must therefore be placed on top of the agenda for all stakeholders to reach a consensus in order to protect and to safeguard the continued peace and development of mankind, particularly in a post-pandemic world.

#Corporations_and_Economy

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/in-search-of-rational-dialogues-in-a-post-pandemic/

🪆The fight against the pandemic changed Russia from the inside and these changes are more important than any foreign policy manoeuvres or adaptation to international affairs, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

#Global_Governance

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/isolation-can-only-be-splendid/

⏰ TODAY at 16:30 Moscow time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will hold a discussion “Global ‘Greening’: A Threat or New Opportunities for Russia and the World?”

❓How should Russia respond to the global green transformation?
❓What opportunities does Russia have to integrate into this process in a meaningful way?
❓How important will the US-sponsored summit be to the international green agenda?
❓Will the green transformation become a new factor of global inequality?

These and other questions will be answered by the participants of the discussion.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms used by the Valdai Club: on the website, on Facebook, Vkontakte, Instagram, Telegram, and Twitter.

https://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/video/global-greening-a-threat-or-new-opportunities-expert-discussion/

📷 ©Reuters

♻️🌐 Environmental protection is a global problem, which affects all of humanity, but ecology as a value divides the world even more and deepens stratification.

It is not enough to adopt a declaration; behind the green perestroika there are colossal financial investments, which most countries throughout the world couldn’t even consider, writes Valdai Club expert Elena Maslova. 

💡We will discuss this issue later today: at 16:30 Moscow time (GMT+3) a discussion “Global ‘Greening’: A Threat or New Opportunities for Russia and the World?” will take place. Stay tuned!

#Morality_and_Law

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/leaders-summit-on-climate-one-and-a-half-degrees/

UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion will be available soon via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 16:30 Moscow time (GMT+3) we are starting a discussion “Global ‘Greening’: A Threat or New Opportunities for Russia and the World?”

❓How should Russia respond to the global green transformation?
❓What opportunities does Russia have to integrate into this process in a meaningful way?
❓How important will the US-sponsored summit be to the international green agenda?
❓Will the green transformation become a new factor of global inequality?

These and other questions will be answered by the participants of the discussion.

https://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/video/global-greening-a-threat-or-new-opportunities-expert-discussion/

📌 Today, on April 22, the Valdai Club held a discussion “Global ‘Greening’: A Threat or New Opportunities for Russia and the World?”

📷 Photo gallery of the discussion is available on our Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/valdai.club/

🎞 The video will be available via this link soon 🔗 https://bit.ly/3niyb6j

Stay tuned!

♻️🌐 Green Transformation: Saving the Planet or Economic Competition?

On April 22, the Valdai Club discussed #climatechange, carbon regulation and the development of hydrogen energy. The discussion, titled Global Greening: A Threat or New Opportunities for Russia and the World? coincided with the online Leaders Summit on Climate Change.

🔹 Nuritdin Inamov, Assistant to the Minister of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, identified two components of climate change as a global problem - objective and subjective, saying that the latter were associated with attempts by individual governments to use environmental issues to pursue political objectives other than protecting nature. In this regard, according to him, equal but differentiated responsibility is important.

🔹 Anatol Lieven, Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, noted that participants of the Summit limit themselves to general words and aren’t making clear commitments despite the threat which global warming creates for human civilisation.

🔹 Nikolay Durmanov, Special Representative for Biological and Environmental Security at the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, noted that, contrary to popular belief,  reducing greenhouse gas emissions alone will not solve the problem of global warming. This underscores the particular importance of forestry and agricultural projects aimed at absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which are usually underestimated.

🔹 Christoph Van Agt, Director of Energy Dialogue at the International Energy Forum, highlighted the tremendous historic opportunities associated with the green transformation that opened up in 2020 and expressed hope that the Leaders Summit will lead to greater international climate solidarity.

🔹 Mikhail Kuznetsov, Director of the Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution “Eastern State Planning Centre”, said that climate responsibility is extremely important, regardless of its political and competitive aspects, which inevitably arise when anything is discussed. It is necessary to understand that it is impossible to divide peoples and countries into losers and winners from climate change - its consequences are too unpredictable.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/green-transformation-saving-the-planet-or-economic-competition/

♻️💰A platform for cooperation between sovereign wealth funds would encourage the G20 states to strengthen their economic cooperation, bolster mutual interests, improve multilateralism, and develop opportunities for their SWFs, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Yaroslav Lissovolik.

Additionally, it would act as an emergency tool in easing the impact of a global crisis, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, as it can be employed as an anti-crisis measure via the investments of the G20 states’ SWFs. 

#Corporations_and_Economy

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/on-the-role-of-sovereign-wealth-funds/

🌍 The events of the “Arab Spring” that began 10 years ago were considered a tectonic shift, capable of overturning the previous development logic of the Middle East.

While the collective West counted on “democratisation” due to their liberal ideology, Russia or China called for a more cautious assessment of what was happening.

The region itself has been torn apart by the clash of ideologies, identities, wars, terrorism, drought, and, most importantly, the stagnation or underdevelopment of socio-economic systems.

In many ways, it was the impasse in the development of states (and statehood) coupled with an external factor at a certain stage in history that predetermined the scale of these problems.

As noted in the Valdai Club report “The Middle East in Search for Lost Awakening” about the Middle East leaders, “This constellation, brought to the fore by extraordinary circumstances that happened in a tormented region of a crumbling world, is emerging as a generation of tacticians.”

“Excessive pragmatism” and the absence of “philosophical quests” — these words really characterise the current elites in the region.

In the Arab world, all the projects that have been offered since the 20th century fell apart before being realised, writes Ruslan Mamedov, Project Manager for Middle East and North Africa at the Russian International Affairs Council.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-return-of-the-arab-voice-through-a-portal-from/

📑🌐 Digital Agreements: New Trends in International Alliances

Biden’s multilateralism does not refer to participation in a collective security organisation such as the United Nations; it is a euphemism, describing the perseverance of the Cold War-era NATO military alliance in contemporary times.

Its lack of confidence in its own strength and development renders it unable to respond to external competition in a normal way, which is the vital mechanism in promoting digital agreements, writes Shen Yi, Director of the Cyberspace International Governance Research Institute, Fudan University.

#Corporations_and_Economy

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/digital-agreements-new-trends-in-international-all/

⚓️ The current debate shows that the Turkish government has gained a leverage to set the tone in the domestic politics and chooses to make ambiguous statements to keep the issue warm at the political level.

In the long run, the statements of the officials from the highest level indicate the Montreux regime would prevail even after the construction of the canal, up until a better one is formulated, writes Valdai Club expert Hasan Selim Özertem. 

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/a-new-passageway-to-the-black-sea-questions/

#Conflict_and_Leadership

📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On May 20-21, 2021, the city of Kazan will host the Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, titled “Russia and Central Asia Facing the Challenges of the New World — A Joint Path to the Future.”

👉 The event will be held mostly live; almost all guests will attend in person.

Today we can say surely say that Russia and the Central Asian “five” are connected not only by their Soviet past, but also by their common present, created by joint efforts within the EAEU, CSTO, SCO and CIS, as well as through bilateral tracks.

At the end of the year, the Valdai Discussion Club will release a report on Russian policy towards the post-Soviet space over the past 30 years. The Kazan conference will serve as one of the key intellectual sources for this scientific work.

🌐 More than 60 experts from 12 countries will take part in the Central Asian conference: from Russia, Afghanistan, Great Britain, Germany, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, France and Estonia. The President of the Republic of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, will address the event’s participants with a welcome speech.

Among the guests of the conference are: Oleg Salagay, Deputy Minister of Health of the Russian Federation; Yerlan Karin, Assistant to the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Chairman of the Kazakhstan Council on International Relations; Hamid Karzai, President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (2004-2014); Mehdi Sanai, Senior Adviser to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran and Director of the Institute for Iranian and Eurasian Studies as well as former Ambassador of Iran to Moscow.

💡 The opening of the conference, the first session, as well as the final session of the programme - an open discussion - will be open to the media and a wide audience and it will be broadcast on the Club's website.

🎙At the expert level, the conference will be attended by both recognised regional experts and foreign guests of the Club, whose level of expertise has been proven over the years: Anatol Lieven, Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Alexander Rahr, Scientific Director of the German-Russian Forum; Arnaud Dubien, Director of the Analytical Centre “Observo”; Feng Shaolei, Director of the Centre for Russian Studies, East China Normal University; Eldor Aripov, Director of the Institute of Strategic and Regional Studies, Uzbekistan; Kubatbek Rakhimov, former adviser to the Prime Minister of the Kyrgyz Republic; Ivan Safranchuk, Leading Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO-University; Vitaly Naumkin, Scientific Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club; Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club; Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club and others.

Working languages: English, Russian.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to be accredited for the event, fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763. Accreditation is open until 3:00 pm Moscow time on May 19.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/russia-and-central-asia-in-the-face-of-new-global-challenges-the-central-asian-conference-of-the-val/

📌 Programme of the Valdai Club Central Asian Conference "Russia and Central Asia Facing the Challenges of the New World – A Joint Path to the Future"

May, 20–21, 2021, Kazan
National Library of the Republic of Tatarstan

📆 May 20, Thursday

10:30 – 10:45 — Opening of the Conference (live broadcast)

10:45 – 12:15 — Session 1. Russia and Central Asia After the Pandemic: How We Passed the Stress Test (live broadcast)

The coronavirus pandemic has become a serious test for the socio-economic and political systems of all countries of the world. The consequences of the pandemic affected statehood in different ways: while in some countries they sped up internal changes, elsewhere they slowed them down.

❓The purpose of the session is to discuss the lessons learned, positive and negative examples of interstate interaction and coordination of national authorities’ actions, the pandemic consequences for multilateral institutions: the EAEU, the CSTO and the CIS; opportunities to strengthen interaction.

12:45 – 14:15 — Session 2. Common and Different Security Threats to Russia and Central Asia

Central Asia is important for ensuring the national security of Russia in the southern and southeastern directions.

❓The central questions of the session are: what unites the interests of Russia and the countries of Central Asia in the field of traditional security; what are the consequences of the Sino-American conflict for the region; what Russia is doing and can do for the security of Central Asia; what Russia wants from regional partners in the field of preventing old and new threats.

15:35 – 17:05 — Session 3. New "Windows of Opportunity" of the Global Economy for Russia and Central Asia

The global economy is undergoing profound changes amid the shift of the balance of power towards China, the proliferation of sanctions and trade wars, increased protectionism and a slowdown in global trade. At the same time, new forms of economic activity are developing, associated with information and communication technologies, the green economy, and the new formats of traditional spheres of economic activity.

❓The session will focus on: the impact of changes in the global economy on Russia and the countries of Central Asia; new threats and new opportunities for the implementation of national development plans; promising directions and constraints on economic activity.

📆 May 21, Friday

10:00 – 11:30 — Session 4. Russian Policy in Central Eurasia and Its Perception by Regional Powers

Russia's policy in Central Eurasia is determined by the country's internal development, global challenges and established relations with regional powers. The main goals remain unchanged: these are maintaining security in the region, stability of political systems, and their friendly nature in relation to Russian interests and values.

❓The central issues of the session are: traditional and new elements in Russia's policies; the most important structural and practical aspects of Russia's interaction with regional players; perception of Russia's policies in the context of development of Central Asian countries.

12:00 – 13:30 — Open discussion "The Future for 'Special' Relations Between Russia and Central Asia " (live broadcast)

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/programme-of-the-valdai-club-central-asian-conference/

🗽🌐 The post-World War Two globalization system was structured to produce an American controlled structure, with rules and order planned to establish American hegemony for the future. The structure was brilliant: 

🔹The United Nations would develop political solutions.
🔹The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund would provide economic management.
🔹The General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs would manage trade, as it became the World Trade Organization.
🔹The costs of communication, travel, and trade were reduced.
🔹Containerization and global supply chains allowed advantages of worldwide labor and markets. 
🔹The world-wide-web was the connector, to bring everyone and everything together.  

The system was essential, from an American standpoint, because we believed that we controlled the position as the self-declared superpower. Fukuyama declared the End of History, which Washington sincerely believed solidified the American position. Then, the worldwide system began to unravel: 

▪️Globalization and the Davos Man became suspect.
▪️Questions increased of the role of democracy and whether inequality was essential to capitalism.
▪️The global supply chains, which fostered the economic rise of China, became involved in issues of national security, within a context of growing nationalism and populism. 
▪️The internet, which was meant to unite, suddenly became an instrument of division, with nations seeking to control the flow, production, and distribution of information.

Globalization is being redefined across the world, which will change economic, political and social relationships. How, will, and can the world direct these changes for mutual benefit or increased tension? Todd Lefko tries to answer this question.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-future-of-globalization-mutual-benefit/

💉🇪🇺 Did the EU drop the ball with its vaccination strategy?

Ever since Covid-19 vaccines became available, there has been an obsession with the speed of national vaccination campaigns.

For sure, the EU’s record in the Covid-19 pandemic is far from flawless. At the beginning of the pandemic the EU was notoriously late in recognising the gravity of the situation and expressing tangible solidarity with badly hit Italy. To some extent the Union tried to make up for that by in getting a recovery package accepted, the biggest ever financed through the EU’s budget. Later it did so by taking the lead in negotiations on the purchase of vaccines with pharmaceutical companies.

The EU was probably efficient in getting good prices for the vaccines, but failed to get solid guarantees on fast deliveries. This slowed down the initial stage of the vaccination campaign considerably. The reactions from Brussels were sometimes panicky, threatening for example an export ban on vaccines.

If the pandemic has taught us one thing, it is that we should not give a final assessment of policies before the finish line: it ain’t over till it is over, writes Tom Casier, Director of the Global Europe Centre at the University of Kent.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/assessing-the-eu-s-vaccine-policy/