♟️ One of the key challenges facing the initiators of economic sanctions is in creating a coalition of countries willing to implement the restrictive measures.

A common thesis in the research literature is that the presence of such a coalition enhances the effectiveness of sanctions pressure — the more countries support sanctions, the more difficult it is to circumvent them.

The emergence of “black knights”, that is, states that deliberately torpedo sanctions regimes, however, can significantly devalue the imposed sanctions.

A big problem for the initiators of sanctions has been third countries that maintain distance from the confrontation with Russia. Thus, while British experts state that sanctions complicate the functioning of the Russian military-industrial complex and the economy as a whole, they maintain that they do not interfere with the resolution of political problems, including the conflict in Ukraine; the circumvention of sanctions through third countries is one of the reasons.

Numerous tactics to circumvent sanctions in the form of supplies through third countries are still hardly the most serious problem for the West.

A much more serious challenge is Moscow’s consistent policy of building transaction mechanisms independent of the Western financial infrastructure, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/without-black-knights-do-third-countries/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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📆 TOMORROW, August 16, at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

❓How long will the sanctions war last? 
❓What are the prospects for increasing pressure on Russia and its partners? 
❓What coercive measures and secondary sanctions could there be in the future? 
❓How can they be resisted in today’s conditions? 

The discussion participants will address these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen.

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239203

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🗣 On August 16, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion on the topic “Sanctions Against Russia – From Here to Eternity?”

📷 Photo gallery

🎥 Video

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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🇷🇺 History for Decades: The Present and Future of Sanctions Against Russia

On August 16, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, “Sanctions against Russia – from here to eternity?” Moderator Ivan Timofeev noted that despite the legal possibility of lifting unilateral restrictive measures, the reasons for their introduction against Russia remain and are getting worse. Accordingly, he added, Russia will probably live under sanctions for decades.

💬 Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry, emphasised that the West, in its geopolitical confrontation with Russia, is trying to use interdependence in global relations as a weapon, and these illegal measures generate destructive consequences for all parties and limit the rights of states to sovereign independent development. However, no matter how difficult they are for many industries, they ultimately force Russia to restructure the entire economy and create high-value-added products within the country. Birichevsky also noted the importance of cooperation with the Global South and integration in the Greater Eurasia space against this backdrop. 

💬 Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Politics and Economics at HSE, believes that the West will primarily improve mechanisms for oversight in the area of compliance with sanctions. The result will be a constant search for dynamic solutions and alternative ways to circumvent restrictions - a kind of eternal game of "sanctions cat and mouse". She believes that the second important factor is pressure on countries friendly to Russia in industries in which the right to work with Russia was not specifically stipulated. For Russia in this context, it will be important to expand the range and develop and complicate cooperation mechanisms, rather than increase trade turnover as such. All this, according to Likhacheva, means that it is no longer possible to be guided by the imperative of cost efficiency and that it is necessary to constantly maintain a balance between a sustainability strategy and a development strategy based on flexibility. 

💬 Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, believes that in the long term, the effectiveness of sanctions will decrease significantly, because the world is moving towards multipolarity, and the dependence of other countries on the West is decreasing. It can be assumed that the sanctions will continue to intensify, but this will make it even more difficult to convince the rest of the world, which trusts the West less and less, to comply with them. “I believe that the international system led by the US is slowly disintegrating,” Diesen concluded. “Of course, we need a new economic system with reliable supply chains, reliable transport corridors, and reliable banks.” In this regard, he sees a great future for BRICS. 

💬 Sergey Glandin, Partner at the BGP Litigation, Attorney, spoke about judicial practice in cases of lifting sanctions in the US and EU, and also considered the terminology of the case and the issue of the legitimacy of unilateral sanctions, emphasising that Russia does not recognise any sanctions imposed in circumvention of the UN Security Council as legitimate. Speaking about the prospects, he suggested that if Donald Trump is elected US President, lifting some of the sanctions will be theoretically possible, since American presidents often cancel their predecessors' decrees on sanctions - the law does not require such decisions to be coordinated with Congress. As for the EU, according to the Treaty on European Union, "restrictive measures" are introduced, lifted and extended unanimously.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/history-for-decades-the-present-and-future-of-sanctions-against-russia/

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #sanctions

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⛔️ Sanctions, as an important tool in international politics, are unlikely to disappear.

This also applies to unilateral sanctions: the West will continue to impose those restrictive measures on states that oppose it and whose policies do not correspond to Western interests.

However, support for such moves will continue to erode, writes Milana Živanović.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/future-of-sanctions-policy-in-a-multipolar-world/

🗣 The author is a participant of the Valdai - New Generation project.

#WiderEurasia #sanctions #Valdai_NewGeneration

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On September 9 at 11:00  Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host the presentation of its  report, titled “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

After February 24, 2022, the Western countries imposed an unprecedentedly broad set of economic restrictions on Russia. Russia is not the first country to face such a range of sanctions, but the speed with which they were imposed has been unprecedented. In just a few months, Russia has received a set of restrictions that, for instance, Iran has faced over the past 43 years. Russia can learn from Iran's experience in adapting to and overcoming such restrictions.

Iran has had to endure a wide set of restrictions. The financial sector there continues to suffer. Iran’s ability to export oil and import essential industrial goods and equipment is limited.

Despite the punitive economic measures, the Islamic Republic was able to successfully advance in a number of industrial and technologically intensive sectors, creating industrial niches, which were important for the country’s security. The problems that arise in the Iranian economy under sanctions are also important. These include difficulties in settlements with foreign counterparties, the stability of the national currency, and access to foreign equipment.

❓What financial mechanisms does Iran use for mutual settlements?
❓How does Iran compensate for the lack of technology?
❓How has the role of sanctions changed in the Iranian economy?
❓What lessons can Russia learn from the Iranian experience?
❓What are the prospects for cooperation in countering sanctions pressure?

The participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

🎙️ Speakers:

🇷🇺 Maxim Baranov, Acting Director of the Second Asian Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry

🇷🇺 Sumbula Sultanova, Executive Secretary of the Russian-Iranian Business Council

🇮🇷 Kayhan Barzegar, Senior Academic Advisor at the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS)

🇷🇺 Lana Ravandi-Fadai, Senior Researcher and Head of the Eastern Cultural Centre at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

🇷🇺 Adlan Margoev, Researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO

Moderator:

🗣 Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-present-a-report-on-how-iran-s-economy-copes-with-sanctions/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Iran #sanctions

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⏰ TODAY at 11:00  Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host the presentation of its  report, titled “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

❓What financial mechanisms does Iran use for mutual settlements?
❓How does Iran compensate for the lack of technology?
❓How has the role of sanctions changed in the Iranian economy?
❓What lessons can Russia learn from the Iranian experience?
❓What are the prospects for cooperation in countering sanctions pressure?

The participants in the discussion will try to answer these and other questions.

Links to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, X (formerly Twitter), VK, Telegram and Dzen. 

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Iran #sanctions

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🎥 LIVE: at 11:00  Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting the presentation of the Valdai report, titled “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”.

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239204

#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Iran #sanctions

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