🇷🇺🇺🇦 The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits.
1️⃣ First, such a military conflict is unlikely to culminate in any intelligible agreement. A victory over the armed forces of Ukraine will not by itself lead to a fast peace. The war could develop into a long and sluggish confrontation.
2️⃣ Second, the conflict would inevitably lead to a sharp change in the Western approach toward providing Ukraine with modern weapons and military equipment. Large-scale military aid from the West would prolong the conflict. The United States and its allies will not enter open military confrontation with Moscow. However, the level of support for the Ukrainian army will grow significantly.
3️⃣ Third, regarding the Ukrainian issue, Russia would find itself in diplomatic isolation. It is unlikely that any country would voice support for Moscow’s actions. Unlike Crimea and Donbass, we’re talking about a large-scale and open clash between the armed forces, that is, about a full-fledged war. Russia would certainly be on the offensive. This would allow its actions to be classified as aggression without any problems.
4️⃣ Fourth, all key Western players would introduce qualitatively new sanctions and restrictions against Russia. The cumulative damage to the Russian economy would be colossal in scale.
5️⃣ Fifth, controlling Ukraine, even its eastern part, could be problematic. Taking into account the Western sanctions blockade, any transactions with the territories of Ukraine under Russian control would be impossible. Russia would have to take on a huge territory.
6️⃣ Sixth, the loyalty of the population of Eastern Ukraine to Russia is not obvious. Despite all the internal disagreements, over the past 30 years Ukraine has developed its own civic identity. The population of the eastern regions may have a negative attitude towards excessive nationalism. However, this does not guarantee their loyalty to Russia.
7️⃣ Finally, seventh, the war is fraught with destabilisation of the situation inside Russia itself. There is no demand in society for a war with a neighbour, even despite the odiousness of the anti-Russia discourse in Ukraine.
The war is fraught with significant risks to the economy, political stability and Russian foreign policy. It fails to solve key security problems, while it creates many new ones, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
🔗 War Between Russia and Ukraine: A Basic Scenario?
#Ukraine #Russia #war #conflict #geopolitics
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
1️⃣ First, such a military conflict is unlikely to culminate in any intelligible agreement. A victory over the armed forces of Ukraine will not by itself lead to a fast peace. The war could develop into a long and sluggish confrontation.
2️⃣ Second, the conflict would inevitably lead to a sharp change in the Western approach toward providing Ukraine with modern weapons and military equipment. Large-scale military aid from the West would prolong the conflict. The United States and its allies will not enter open military confrontation with Moscow. However, the level of support for the Ukrainian army will grow significantly.
3️⃣ Third, regarding the Ukrainian issue, Russia would find itself in diplomatic isolation. It is unlikely that any country would voice support for Moscow’s actions. Unlike Crimea and Donbass, we’re talking about a large-scale and open clash between the armed forces, that is, about a full-fledged war. Russia would certainly be on the offensive. This would allow its actions to be classified as aggression without any problems.
4️⃣ Fourth, all key Western players would introduce qualitatively new sanctions and restrictions against Russia. The cumulative damage to the Russian economy would be colossal in scale.
5️⃣ Fifth, controlling Ukraine, even its eastern part, could be problematic. Taking into account the Western sanctions blockade, any transactions with the territories of Ukraine under Russian control would be impossible. Russia would have to take on a huge territory.
6️⃣ Sixth, the loyalty of the population of Eastern Ukraine to Russia is not obvious. Despite all the internal disagreements, over the past 30 years Ukraine has developed its own civic identity. The population of the eastern regions may have a negative attitude towards excessive nationalism. However, this does not guarantee their loyalty to Russia.
7️⃣ Finally, seventh, the war is fraught with destabilisation of the situation inside Russia itself. There is no demand in society for a war with a neighbour, even despite the odiousness of the anti-Russia discourse in Ukraine.
The war is fraught with significant risks to the economy, political stability and Russian foreign policy. It fails to solve key security problems, while it creates many new ones, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
🔗 War Between Russia and Ukraine: A Basic Scenario?
#Ukraine #Russia #war #conflict #geopolitics
@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
War Between Russia and Ukraine: A Basic Scenario?
The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The war is fraught with significant risks to the economy, political stability and Russian foreign policy. It fails to solve key security problems, while it creates many new…
🧨 Several crises in the post-World War II period had the real potential of escalating into a full-fledged, protracted war, possibly followed by nuclear escalation. Both the Korean War and the armed conflict in Ukraine are conflicts over the future of the world order.
Especially for the new Valdai Report, titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies,” we created an infographic on major wars and conflicts in the post-World War II period. The full infographic is available on the website.
#valdai_infogaphics #war #MilitaryConflict
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Especially for the new Valdai Report, titled “Warfare in a New Epoch: The Return of Big Armies,” we created an infographic on major wars and conflicts in the post-World War II period. The full infographic is available on the website.
#valdai_infogaphics #war #MilitaryConflict
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⚔️ The sharp escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict became the main event of October 2023, pushing into the background the recent fall of Nagorno-Karabakh and even Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.
Such attention is entirely justified. First, the barbaric attack by Hamas, and then the disproportionate Israeli response, causing untold suffering for the civilian population of the Gaza Strip, attracted the attention of the entire world community.
When observing the progress of the current phase of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it is worth noting an important feature of modern armed conflicts. In recent years, we have observed the blurring of the boundaries between war and peace, the convergence between military and non-military instruments of confrontation, the “weaponisation of everything,” and the active development of the concepts of multi-domain operations, hybrid wars and integrated deterrence.
The Hamas attack on October 7 forces us to think about what the outbreak of a major regional conflict might look like in the near future, given the experience of the operation in Ukraine and the rapid, difficult-to-predict development of new technologies, writes Prokhor Tebin, Head of the Section of International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems, HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/hamas-israel-dead-end-the-military-dimension/
#EconomicStatecraft #Israel #Palestine #Gaza #war
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Such attention is entirely justified. First, the barbaric attack by Hamas, and then the disproportionate Israeli response, causing untold suffering for the civilian population of the Gaza Strip, attracted the attention of the entire world community.
When observing the progress of the current phase of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it is worth noting an important feature of modern armed conflicts. In recent years, we have observed the blurring of the boundaries between war and peace, the convergence between military and non-military instruments of confrontation, the “weaponisation of everything,” and the active development of the concepts of multi-domain operations, hybrid wars and integrated deterrence.
The Hamas attack on October 7 forces us to think about what the outbreak of a major regional conflict might look like in the near future, given the experience of the operation in Ukraine and the rapid, difficult-to-predict development of new technologies, writes Prokhor Tebin, Head of the Section of International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems, HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/hamas-israel-dead-end-the-military-dimension/
#EconomicStatecraft #Israel #Palestine #Gaza #war
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Valdai Club
Hamas-Israel Dead End: The Military Dimension of the Disaster
A sharp aggravation of the socio-economic situation in the Middle East, new waves of refugees, and the outbreak of hostilities could affect Russia’s interests in Syria and create favourable conditions for international terrorism and Islamist groups in the…