🇸🇪🇫🇮🇹🇷 The process of Sweden and Finland acceding to NATO membership is not over yet. But recent developments show that a delay is inevitable due to tense relations between Turkey and Sweden.
28 member states of NATO, out of 30, have already approved Sweden and Finland’s accession to the alliance. After Hungary’s ratification, there is a risk that Turkey would be labelled as the sole gatekeeper. Still, it is not likely for Turkey to hurry up ratification. In May, there will be parliamentary and presidential elections, and the issue has already become a feature of domestic politics in Turkey.
Looking at the current equation, there are three scenarios before us:
1️⃣ First, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO before the elections. Such a scenario would necessitate a shift in the position of Stockholm, which would include the prevention of PKK protests, measures being taken against provocative demonstrations, and the extradition of terrorism suspects to Turkey.
2️⃣ Second, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Finland to NATO and leave Sweden in the waiting room. This possibility has been articulated by Turkish officials, including President Erdoğan himself. Nevertheless, the Finnish officials have declared that they would like to join the alliance together with Sweden. Still, any change in the position of Finland may push this scenario forward. Ratifying Finland’s membership to NATO can help the AK Party explain itself more easily to the alliance rather than being portrayed as a gatekeeper.
3️⃣ The third scenario is leaving the ratification to a date after the elections in May. In this case, there is a risk that Finland and Sweden may not participate in the summit in Vilnius as full members.
The AK Party has a conservative constituency and the issue has already become a matter of defending the dignity of Islam and Turkey. Thus, the Turkish president will use any shift in the position of Stockholm as leverage in the elections, while the stubbornness of Sweden legitimises Turkey’s position to blockade the expansion.
Looking at this picture, the dynamics of domestic politics in Turkey and Sweden have shaped the future of the North Atlantic Alliance, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkey-s-relations-with-sweden-the-puzzle-of-nato/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NATO #Sweden #Finland
@valdai_club
28 member states of NATO, out of 30, have already approved Sweden and Finland’s accession to the alliance. After Hungary’s ratification, there is a risk that Turkey would be labelled as the sole gatekeeper. Still, it is not likely for Turkey to hurry up ratification. In May, there will be parliamentary and presidential elections, and the issue has already become a feature of domestic politics in Turkey.
Looking at the current equation, there are three scenarios before us:
1️⃣ First, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO before the elections. Such a scenario would necessitate a shift in the position of Stockholm, which would include the prevention of PKK protests, measures being taken against provocative demonstrations, and the extradition of terrorism suspects to Turkey.
2️⃣ Second, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Finland to NATO and leave Sweden in the waiting room. This possibility has been articulated by Turkish officials, including President Erdoğan himself. Nevertheless, the Finnish officials have declared that they would like to join the alliance together with Sweden. Still, any change in the position of Finland may push this scenario forward. Ratifying Finland’s membership to NATO can help the AK Party explain itself more easily to the alliance rather than being portrayed as a gatekeeper.
3️⃣ The third scenario is leaving the ratification to a date after the elections in May. In this case, there is a risk that Finland and Sweden may not participate in the summit in Vilnius as full members.
The AK Party has a conservative constituency and the issue has already become a matter of defending the dignity of Islam and Turkey. Thus, the Turkish president will use any shift in the position of Stockholm as leverage in the elections, while the stubbornness of Sweden legitimises Turkey’s position to blockade the expansion.
Looking at this picture, the dynamics of domestic politics in Turkey and Sweden have shaped the future of the North Atlantic Alliance, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkey-s-relations-with-sweden-the-puzzle-of-nato/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NATO #Sweden #Finland
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Turkey’s Relations with Sweden: The Puzzle of NATO’s Expansion
The process of Sweden and Finland acceding to NATO membership is not over yet. But recent developments show that a delay is inevitable due to tense relations between Turkey and Sweden, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
🇹🇷🇷🇺 Turkey’s multi-dimensional foreign policy exercises of late have given rise to endless speculations and contradictions across the world and in particular in the West.
It is epitomized by the Turkish President’s meetings with his Russian, Ukrainian and Iranian counterparts as well as his meetings with his Western partners, including Biden.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict Ankara has been pursuing a noticeably restrained and well-balanced policy without taking part in the western sanctions but at the same time keeping up its relations with its western partners closely.
Having rid itself of almost all its Middle-Eastern entanglements, which have cost Ankara an arm and a leg over the last decade or so, Turkey now stands to benefit from the opportunities accruing from a multipolar world order, something that it has become an unstoppable reality, however much the US and the Collective West are still trying to prevent it, but to no avail.
Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia does not seem to be circumstantial. It is true that, as its relations with the West and particularly the US are going through tough times Ankara turns to Russia for more cooperation but it is also true that Ankara would remain on this mutually beneficial track more firmly at a time of multipolarity just as it always sought good relations with the Soviet Union in the inter-war period, particularly in the 1920s and 30s, writes Hasan Ünal, Professor at Maltepe University, Istanbul.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-russian-rapprochement-imultipolar-world/
📌 This article was prepared for the 12th Middle East conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.
#mideastvaldai #MiddleEast #Turkey #multipilarity
@valdai_club
It is epitomized by the Turkish President’s meetings with his Russian, Ukrainian and Iranian counterparts as well as his meetings with his Western partners, including Biden.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict Ankara has been pursuing a noticeably restrained and well-balanced policy without taking part in the western sanctions but at the same time keeping up its relations with its western partners closely.
Having rid itself of almost all its Middle-Eastern entanglements, which have cost Ankara an arm and a leg over the last decade or so, Turkey now stands to benefit from the opportunities accruing from a multipolar world order, something that it has become an unstoppable reality, however much the US and the Collective West are still trying to prevent it, but to no avail.
Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia does not seem to be circumstantial. It is true that, as its relations with the West and particularly the US are going through tough times Ankara turns to Russia for more cooperation but it is also true that Ankara would remain on this mutually beneficial track more firmly at a time of multipolarity just as it always sought good relations with the Soviet Union in the inter-war period, particularly in the 1920s and 30s, writes Hasan Ünal, Professor at Maltepe University, Istanbul.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-russian-rapprochement-imultipolar-world/
📌 This article was prepared for the 12th Middle East conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.
#mideastvaldai #MiddleEast #Turkey #multipilarity
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Turkish-Russian Rapprochement in a Multipolar World
Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia does not seem to be circumstantial. It is true that, as its relations with the West and particularly the US are going through tough times Ankara turns to Russia for more cooperation but it is also true that Ankara would…
🇹🇷🇷🇺 In the era of globalization, where sovereign states have become much more interdependent at the global, regional, and sub-regional levels, international conflicts have been influencing each other to a significantly greater extent. A plain example is the current Ukrainian crisis, which has been deeply affecting the Syrian and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts.
Under such vulnerable circumstances, Russian-Turkish relations have become highly dependent on diplomatic “battles” between Ankara and Moscow over retaining vs. enhancing influence in different regions, namely, in Syria and the South Caucasus.
The military conflict in Ukraine has shaken the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Facing increasingly hostile West-Russia relations, the region keeps turning into a new confrontation zone, while Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to navigate to secure their vital interests. Thus, it is very important which side Turkiye takes in this battle, write Igor Matveev and Yeghia Tashjian.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/from-syria-to-nagorno-karabakh-assessing-russian/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NagornoKarabakh
@valdai_club
Under such vulnerable circumstances, Russian-Turkish relations have become highly dependent on diplomatic “battles” between Ankara and Moscow over retaining vs. enhancing influence in different regions, namely, in Syria and the South Caucasus.
The military conflict in Ukraine has shaken the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Facing increasingly hostile West-Russia relations, the region keeps turning into a new confrontation zone, while Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to navigate to secure their vital interests. Thus, it is very important which side Turkiye takes in this battle, write Igor Matveev and Yeghia Tashjian.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/from-syria-to-nagorno-karabakh-assessing-russian/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NagornoKarabakh
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
From Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh: Assessing Russian-Turkish ‘Co-opetition’
A pending possible withdrawal of US troops from North-Eastern Syria amid the unclear political future of the Syrian Kurds and their parallel economy is fraught with the risk of creating a sub-regional vacuum of power. It could eventually push Turkey and Russia…
🇹🇷 A distinctive feature of Turkey's foreign policy is its duality - the desire to maintain a high level of relations with Russia and to join the community of countries that are often called the ‘collective West’, which determine the global agenda.
Ankara’s ability to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Russia is facilitated by the significant volume of bilateral trade. By the end of 2022, the trade growth amounted to almost 50 billion dollars, making Turkey one of Russia’s top three trading partners. Energy remains the cornerstone of Russian-Turkish cooperation.
Following the start of the Special Military Operation, Turkey demonstrated a responsible approach to security in the Black Sea region; it closed the Black Sea straits to all warships. At the same time, Turkey continues to officially declare its strategic course towards joining the EU. NATO remains a powerful instrument of Turkish influence in the West.
On May 14, parliamentary and presidential elections will take place in the Republic of Turkey. They will determine the face of the Turkish political system for the next five years. The main struggle is between two major political blocs: the ruling Republican Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) and the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı).
Alexander Vasilyev writes on possible changes in Turkey’s foreign policy after the presidential elections.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkiye-s-foreign-policy-in-the-context/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey
@valdai_club
Ankara’s ability to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Russia is facilitated by the significant volume of bilateral trade. By the end of 2022, the trade growth amounted to almost 50 billion dollars, making Turkey one of Russia’s top three trading partners. Energy remains the cornerstone of Russian-Turkish cooperation.
Following the start of the Special Military Operation, Turkey demonstrated a responsible approach to security in the Black Sea region; it closed the Black Sea straits to all warships. At the same time, Turkey continues to officially declare its strategic course towards joining the EU. NATO remains a powerful instrument of Turkish influence in the West.
On May 14, parliamentary and presidential elections will take place in the Republic of Turkey. They will determine the face of the Turkish political system for the next five years. The main struggle is between two major political blocs: the ruling Republican Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) and the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı).
Alexander Vasilyev writes on possible changes in Turkey’s foreign policy after the presidential elections.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkiye-s-foreign-policy-in-the-context/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Turkey’s Foreign Policy in the Context of the Presidential Elections: Should We Expect Changes?
The institutions for the development of Russian-Turkish relations have been inscribed into the structure of bilateral relations since 2010. Regardless of who wins the elections, it is important to maintain a high level of Russian-Turkish relations and to…
🇹🇷 The presidential elections in Turkey are scheduled for May 14.
For all their undoubted importance for Turkish society, one cannot fail to note the fact that these elections are now attracting close and sometimes highly emotional attention in Russia as well.
🔹 In the most apocalyptic forecasts, one can read that if Erdogan loses, then Russia’s last window of opportunity will close, and the situation will become completely gloomy.
🔹 At the same time, there is an opinion that if Erdogan wins, then Russia should not expect anything good either.
🔹 The Turkish president has been skilfully kept Russia on a string for years, and after such a victory he will continue to do so with even greater pleasure.
In general, the assessments are polarized; one might even say bipolar. In any case, they are dialectical.
Both the high degree of emotional response to the Russian media image of President Erdogan and the understandable acuteness of the current geopolitical situation have led to a situation when Russian society is now awaiting the Turkish elections with only slightly less excitement than Turkey itself, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/elections-in-turkey-and-anxiety-in-russia/
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
For all their undoubted importance for Turkish society, one cannot fail to note the fact that these elections are now attracting close and sometimes highly emotional attention in Russia as well.
🔹 In the most apocalyptic forecasts, one can read that if Erdogan loses, then Russia’s last window of opportunity will close, and the situation will become completely gloomy.
🔹 At the same time, there is an opinion that if Erdogan wins, then Russia should not expect anything good either.
🔹 The Turkish president has been skilfully kept Russia on a string for years, and after such a victory he will continue to do so with even greater pleasure.
In general, the assessments are polarized; one might even say bipolar. In any case, they are dialectical.
Both the high degree of emotional response to the Russian media image of President Erdogan and the understandable acuteness of the current geopolitical situation have led to a situation when Russian society is now awaiting the Turkish elections with only slightly less excitement than Turkey itself, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/elections-in-turkey-and-anxiety-in-russia/
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Elections in Turkey and Anxiety in Russia
Both the high degree of emotional response to the Russian media image of President Erdogan and the understandable acuteness of the current geopolitical situation have led to a situation when Russian society is now awaiting the Turkish elections with only…
🇹🇷 Sinan Oğan, a candidate from the right-wing bloc — ATA Alliance — got 5.22% of the vote in the Turkish presidential election on Sunday, becoming the third after incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Check out some of his articles written in 2017-2018 for the Valdai Club, where he discusses relations between Turkey and the West, Turkey and NATO.
In his opinion, the main principle should be a “balanced policy” in the Turkish foreign policy. However, a harsh American tone can bring the situation to a deadlock. Most probably, Turkey will maintain pursuing alternative ways rather than the West, like BRICS.
🔹 NATO-Turkey Crisis: How Far Can It Go?
🔹 Turkey Drifts Away from the West, but How Far Will It Go?
#Turkey
@valdai_club
Check out some of his articles written in 2017-2018 for the Valdai Club, where he discusses relations between Turkey and the West, Turkey and NATO.
In his opinion, the main principle should be a “balanced policy” in the Turkish foreign policy. However, a harsh American tone can bring the situation to a deadlock. Most probably, Turkey will maintain pursuing alternative ways rather than the West, like BRICS.
🔹 NATO-Turkey Crisis: How Far Can It Go?
🔹 Turkey Drifts Away from the West, but How Far Will It Go?
#Turkey
@valdai_club
📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On May 30 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey.
The presidential elections in Turkey are in the focus of the international political and expert community. In the first round, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won 49.52% of the vote, beating opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu by almost 5%. The results of the first round show that the preferences of voters were divided between the main candidates almost equally, which is why the results of the second round are of particular interest both at home and abroad.
Amid the current geopolitical conditions, Turkey retains its key importance for Russia. The country seeks to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and is an active participant in the Black Sea grain deal, which was extended on May 17. Moreover, after the closure of European airspace for Russian aircraft, the main tourist and business flows from Russia have taken place through Turkey.
❓What can Moscow expect from Turkey's foreign and domestic policy after the elections?
❓Will there be continuity in Ankara's political course towards Russia?
❓Which areas will be affected by the changes, and which areas of cooperation can be developed?
Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.
🎙 Speakers:
🇹🇷 Hasan Selim Özertem, political analyst, Turkey
🇷🇺 Pavel Shlykov, Associate Professor, Department of History of the Countries of the Near and Middle East, ISAA, Lomonosov Moscow State University, RIAC expert
🇹🇷 Hasan Ünal, Professor, Maltepe University (Turkey)
🇷🇺🇹🇷 Alexei Yerkhov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Turkey @embrusturkey @MFARussia
Moderator:
🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club
https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-results-of-the-presidential-elections-in-turkiye/
Working languages: Russian, English.
ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
The presidential elections in Turkey are in the focus of the international political and expert community. In the first round, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won 49.52% of the vote, beating opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu by almost 5%. The results of the first round show that the preferences of voters were divided between the main candidates almost equally, which is why the results of the second round are of particular interest both at home and abroad.
Amid the current geopolitical conditions, Turkey retains its key importance for Russia. The country seeks to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and is an active participant in the Black Sea grain deal, which was extended on May 17. Moreover, after the closure of European airspace for Russian aircraft, the main tourist and business flows from Russia have taken place through Turkey.
❓What can Moscow expect from Turkey's foreign and domestic policy after the elections?
❓Will there be continuity in Ankara's political course towards Russia?
❓Which areas will be affected by the changes, and which areas of cooperation can be developed?
Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.
🎙 Speakers:
🇹🇷 Hasan Selim Özertem, political analyst, Turkey
🇷🇺 Pavel Shlykov, Associate Professor, Department of History of the Countries of the Near and Middle East, ISAA, Lomonosov Moscow State University, RIAC expert
🇹🇷 Hasan Ünal, Professor, Maltepe University (Turkey)
🇷🇺🇹🇷 Alexei Yerkhov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Turkey @embrusturkey @MFARussia
Moderator:
🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club
https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-results-of-the-presidential-elections-in-turkiye/
Working languages: Russian, English.
ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
⏰ TODAY at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey.
❓What can Moscow expect from Turkey's foreign and domestic policy after the elections?
❓Will there be continuity in Ankara's political course towards Russia?
❓Which areas will be affected by the changes, and which areas of cooperation can be developed?
Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
❓What can Moscow expect from Turkey's foreign and domestic policy after the elections?
❓Will there be continuity in Ankara's political course towards Russia?
❓Which areas will be affected by the changes, and which areas of cooperation can be developed?
Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!
🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey.
https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239100
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
🎥 LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey.
https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239100
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
Vk
LIVE: Results of the Presidential Elections in Turkey. An Expert Discussion
On May 30 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey. More: https://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/video/results-of-the-presidential-elections-in-turkey/
🇹🇷 Turkey’s Election Results as a Triumph of Multipolarity
On May 30, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey that ended on May 28. Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Club, acted as a moderator.
💬 “It is very important that the electoral process went on as a whole on a regular basis, without any special problems, conflicts, incidents, protests, complaints, and so on,” said Alexei Yerkhov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Turkey, emphasising that even the West did not put forward serious claims that make it possible to doubt the legitimacy of the Turkish elections, and is unlikely to put them forward. The diplomat additionally pointed to the competent and professionally correct work of the Turkish media and the exceptionally clear work of the election commissions. Addressing the consequences of the elections, he noted that in the structures of the legislative and executive power of Turkey, there will most likely be a rotation, and many new faces will appear. “Then, I am sure, work will continue on the further development of mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation. We have many projects, ideas, and plans,” he concluded.
💬 Hassan Unal, a professor at the Turkish University of Maltepe, called the election results in Turkey a triumph of multipolarity over unipolarity. According to him, those who wanted to keep Turkey within the framework of a unipolar world, on the side of the collective West, had lost. “President Erdogan came to power as a darling of the European Union and the West, but after a while he completely distanced himself from this foreign policy, going towards rapprochement with Russia,” Unal explained. He considers the current foreign policy course to be in the interests of Turkey and its people, since the pro-Western vector preferred by the opposition and attempts to join the EU would mean serious strategic concessions, including possibly implementing anti-Russian sanctions, which would have devastating consequences for the Turkish economy.
💬 Pavel Shlykov, Associate Professor at the Department of History of the Countries of the Near and Middle East at ISAA Moscow State University and RIAC expert, believes that big changes await the Turkish authorities. Among the key tasks that Erdogan will face in domestic politics, he noted the restoration of the country after the earthquake, the withdrawal of Turkey from the economic crisis, the solution of the refugee problem and an increase in the rating of the Justice and Development Party. In foreign policy, the old trends will continue: the restoration of relations with the UAE and the Gulf countries, the search for a compromise with Greece and Egypt, as well as ways of reconciliation with Syria. Discussing the future of Russian-Turkish relations, Shlykov pointed out that although our points of view do not always coincide, Turkey and Russia are able to create a mode of dialogue.
💬 Hasan Selim Ozertem, an Ankara-based political analyst, believes that political stability awaits Turkey in the next five years, and the economy will become a priority for the government in the near future. Foreign policy, in his opinion, will be multi-vector and autonomous. In particular, he expects a reset in relations between Turkey and the United States in light of the upcoming US elections and strengthening economic relations with the countries of Central Asia. As for Russia, it will continue to be regarded as one of Turkey's main partners, Ozertem is convinced.
https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/turkey-s-election-results-as-a-triumph-of-multipolarity/
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
On May 30, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey that ended on May 28. Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Club, acted as a moderator.
💬 “It is very important that the electoral process went on as a whole on a regular basis, without any special problems, conflicts, incidents, protests, complaints, and so on,” said Alexei Yerkhov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Turkey, emphasising that even the West did not put forward serious claims that make it possible to doubt the legitimacy of the Turkish elections, and is unlikely to put them forward. The diplomat additionally pointed to the competent and professionally correct work of the Turkish media and the exceptionally clear work of the election commissions. Addressing the consequences of the elections, he noted that in the structures of the legislative and executive power of Turkey, there will most likely be a rotation, and many new faces will appear. “Then, I am sure, work will continue on the further development of mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation. We have many projects, ideas, and plans,” he concluded.
💬 Hassan Unal, a professor at the Turkish University of Maltepe, called the election results in Turkey a triumph of multipolarity over unipolarity. According to him, those who wanted to keep Turkey within the framework of a unipolar world, on the side of the collective West, had lost. “President Erdogan came to power as a darling of the European Union and the West, but after a while he completely distanced himself from this foreign policy, going towards rapprochement with Russia,” Unal explained. He considers the current foreign policy course to be in the interests of Turkey and its people, since the pro-Western vector preferred by the opposition and attempts to join the EU would mean serious strategic concessions, including possibly implementing anti-Russian sanctions, which would have devastating consequences for the Turkish economy.
💬 Pavel Shlykov, Associate Professor at the Department of History of the Countries of the Near and Middle East at ISAA Moscow State University and RIAC expert, believes that big changes await the Turkish authorities. Among the key tasks that Erdogan will face in domestic politics, he noted the restoration of the country after the earthquake, the withdrawal of Turkey from the economic crisis, the solution of the refugee problem and an increase in the rating of the Justice and Development Party. In foreign policy, the old trends will continue: the restoration of relations with the UAE and the Gulf countries, the search for a compromise with Greece and Egypt, as well as ways of reconciliation with Syria. Discussing the future of Russian-Turkish relations, Shlykov pointed out that although our points of view do not always coincide, Turkey and Russia are able to create a mode of dialogue.
💬 Hasan Selim Ozertem, an Ankara-based political analyst, believes that political stability awaits Turkey in the next five years, and the economy will become a priority for the government in the near future. Foreign policy, in his opinion, will be multi-vector and autonomous. In particular, he expects a reset in relations between Turkey and the United States in light of the upcoming US elections and strengthening economic relations with the countries of Central Asia. As for Russia, it will continue to be regarded as one of Turkey's main partners, Ozertem is convinced.
https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/turkey-s-election-results-as-a-triumph-of-multipolarity/
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
🇹🇷 Relations with Russia would be one of the key issues for Turkey as multipolarity gains momentum, but Ankara’s foreign adventures would go beyond.
For example, it is more likely than not that Turkey will continue with its search for possibilities and benefits in the emerging multipolar world. It will probably carry on a doubling down of its interest in the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and it will lead, as much as it can, the Organisation of the Turkish States, because numerous factors seem to dictate this multi-faceted and multi-dimensional foreign policy.
All evidence suggests that now, following his victory in the fiercely-contested election, Erdogan will navigate through its own route because this is roughly what the country’s prerequisites dictate. It is true that had the utterly pro-Western opposition won the elections they would have endeavoured to alter Turkey’s course, but even they would have found it quite difficult, if not impossible, to do so, without causing havoc in Ankara’s overall foreign relations.
Although it seems certain that Ankara will be engaged more and more in multilateral policy in the emerging multipolarity, what needs to be borne in mind is that Turkey will have to do all this while remaining in NATO.
Turkey is not and will not be fighting for multipolarity to prevail but it will/would be set to benefit from that, writes Hasan Ünal.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-should-we-make-of-erdogan-s-latest-moves/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey
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For example, it is more likely than not that Turkey will continue with its search for possibilities and benefits in the emerging multipolar world. It will probably carry on a doubling down of its interest in the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and it will lead, as much as it can, the Organisation of the Turkish States, because numerous factors seem to dictate this multi-faceted and multi-dimensional foreign policy.
All evidence suggests that now, following his victory in the fiercely-contested election, Erdogan will navigate through its own route because this is roughly what the country’s prerequisites dictate. It is true that had the utterly pro-Western opposition won the elections they would have endeavoured to alter Turkey’s course, but even they would have found it quite difficult, if not impossible, to do so, without causing havoc in Ankara’s overall foreign relations.
Although it seems certain that Ankara will be engaged more and more in multilateral policy in the emerging multipolarity, what needs to be borne in mind is that Turkey will have to do all this while remaining in NATO.
Turkey is not and will not be fighting for multipolarity to prevail but it will/would be set to benefit from that, writes Hasan Ünal.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-should-we-make-of-erdogan-s-latest-moves/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey
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What Should We Make Of Erdogan's Latest Moves? Has Turkey Skidded off the Road?
Erdogan’s foreign policy exercises of late have led to various speculations both in the West and in the Global South, as well as inside Turkey. Many in the West initially acclaimed him when he declared that he would greenlight Sweden’s entry into NATO in…
🌾 The Ukrainian Grain Deal after Russia’s Withdrawal: A Peace Bridge or a Gordian Knot in the Black Sea?
The situation underscores that Russia's decision to pull out of the grain deal extends beyond mere financial considerations. Although current sanctions have constrained Russia's export agility, their impact remains limited. However, the Kremlin contends that the agreement primarily serves Ukraine's interests, with commitments made to Moscow being sidelined. Within this context, Moscow's demands were consistent with the July 2022 framework.
The prevailing narrative from Russia indicates a preference for tangible actions over suggested alternatives as a condition for re-engaging in the grain deal. In this equation, Turkey and the UN Secretary-General emerge as potential mediators to persuade Russia.
President Erdogan underlines the importance of the grain deal, which he calls “the peace bridge.” Thus, the reinstatement of this deal would bolster Turkey's global reputation and further its economic interests, writes Hasan Selim Özertem.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-grain-deal-after-russia-s-withdrawal/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #graindeal
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The situation underscores that Russia's decision to pull out of the grain deal extends beyond mere financial considerations. Although current sanctions have constrained Russia's export agility, their impact remains limited. However, the Kremlin contends that the agreement primarily serves Ukraine's interests, with commitments made to Moscow being sidelined. Within this context, Moscow's demands were consistent with the July 2022 framework.
The prevailing narrative from Russia indicates a preference for tangible actions over suggested alternatives as a condition for re-engaging in the grain deal. In this equation, Turkey and the UN Secretary-General emerge as potential mediators to persuade Russia.
President Erdogan underlines the importance of the grain deal, which he calls “the peace bridge.” Thus, the reinstatement of this deal would bolster Turkey's global reputation and further its economic interests, writes Hasan Selim Özertem.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-grain-deal-after-russia-s-withdrawal/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #graindeal
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The Ukrainian Grain Deal after Russia’s Withdrawal: A Peace Bridge or a Gordian Knot in the Black Sea?
The prevailing narrative from Russia indicates a preference for tangible actions over suggested alternatives as a condition for re-engaging in the grain deal. In this equation, Turkey and the UN Secretary-General emerge as potential mediators to persuade…
🇹🇷 The new presidential term of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who won the elections on May 28, 2023, fully reflects the key trends in Turkey’s political transformation over the past decade.
📍The most noticeable is the large-scale and consistent consolidation in the hands of the president of monopoly control over all branches of power
📍The dismantling of institutional checks and balances on presidential power, both on the part of state institutions and civil society
📍Desecularisation of public life in Turkey in general, especially in the sphere of education
📍The offensive foreign policy, with the deepening of its militarisation and de-Westernisation
On the way to his third presidential term, Erdoğan faced the biggest political challenge of his career. The rapid economic growth that characterised his early years at the head of Turkey gave way to a long-term financial and economic crisis. The Turkish lira over the past five years has depreciated more than five sixths against the dollar and the euro, losing more than 38% in the aftermath of the elections.
Erdoğan and his supporters will have to seriously prepare for the municipal elections in the spring of 2024, in which the AKP plans to regain control of the largest cities – the capitals Ankara and Istanbul, as well as Antalya.
The municipal elections scheduled for March 2024 will be another major electoral test for Erdoğan. The president considers them “decisive” and regards them as a kind of vote of confidence, Pavel Shlykov writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/erdogan-s-new-term-what-changes-in-turkish-policy/
#Asia_and_Eurasia #Turkey #Erdoğan
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📍The most noticeable is the large-scale and consistent consolidation in the hands of the president of monopoly control over all branches of power
📍The dismantling of institutional checks and balances on presidential power, both on the part of state institutions and civil society
📍Desecularisation of public life in Turkey in general, especially in the sphere of education
📍The offensive foreign policy, with the deepening of its militarisation and de-Westernisation
On the way to his third presidential term, Erdoğan faced the biggest political challenge of his career. The rapid economic growth that characterised his early years at the head of Turkey gave way to a long-term financial and economic crisis. The Turkish lira over the past five years has depreciated more than five sixths against the dollar and the euro, losing more than 38% in the aftermath of the elections.
Erdoğan and his supporters will have to seriously prepare for the municipal elections in the spring of 2024, in which the AKP plans to regain control of the largest cities – the capitals Ankara and Istanbul, as well as Antalya.
The municipal elections scheduled for March 2024 will be another major electoral test for Erdoğan. The president considers them “decisive” and regards them as a kind of vote of confidence, Pavel Shlykov writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/erdogan-s-new-term-what-changes-in-turkish-policy/
#Asia_and_Eurasia #Turkey #Erdoğan
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🇹🇷🇵🇸🇮🇱 In the aftermath of the breakout of the another regional crisis in the Middle East, Ankara was cautious before taking sides and called for an immediate ceasefire.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proactively sought a diplomatic solution by employing telephone diplomacy and dispatching Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the capitals in the region. Ankara’s message was clear: there is a need for a two-state solution, and the international community should work on a political framework after a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages between the parties. Ankara’s position reflects Turkey’s traditional foreign policy on the Palestinian issue, which it has maintained for decades.
AK Party officials, with President Erdogan at the helm, were careful to avoid bashing Israel and PM Benjamin Netanyahu as the humanitarian crisis deepened in the first two weeks. Instead, President Erdogan vocally questioned the increasing presence of the US military in the region, as aircraft carriers approached the Eastern Mediterranean, and called for humanitarian assistance to be allowed to be sent via the Rafah border.
An incident at al-Ahli ignites a stark transformation in Ankara's diplomatic voice, revealing the deep undercurrents of ideology and domestic politics that could reconfigure regional alliances and reshape Turkey's geopolitical path, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/israel-hamas-conflict-shifting-discourses-Turkey/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #HAMAS #Israel
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President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proactively sought a diplomatic solution by employing telephone diplomacy and dispatching Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the capitals in the region. Ankara’s message was clear: there is a need for a two-state solution, and the international community should work on a political framework after a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages between the parties. Ankara’s position reflects Turkey’s traditional foreign policy on the Palestinian issue, which it has maintained for decades.
AK Party officials, with President Erdogan at the helm, were careful to avoid bashing Israel and PM Benjamin Netanyahu as the humanitarian crisis deepened in the first two weeks. Instead, President Erdogan vocally questioned the increasing presence of the US military in the region, as aircraft carriers approached the Eastern Mediterranean, and called for humanitarian assistance to be allowed to be sent via the Rafah border.
An incident at al-Ahli ignites a stark transformation in Ankara's diplomatic voice, revealing the deep undercurrents of ideology and domestic politics that could reconfigure regional alliances and reshape Turkey's geopolitical path, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/israel-hamas-conflict-shifting-discourses-Turkey/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #HAMAS #Israel
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🇹🇷🇮🇱 The IDF's Operation Iron Swords in the Gaza Strip is exceptional in its scale and duration, as well as due to numerous associated consequences, including Turkey’s decision to suspend trade ties with Israel.
In early April of this year, the Turkish Ministry of Trade suspended 54 categories of goods from being exported to Israel, ranging from construction materials to aviation fuel. Ankara said the introduction of restrictions had been motivated by the “gross violations of international law” the IDF had committed during Operation Iron Swords, and declared a ceasefire as a condition for the lifting of sanctions. In the first days of May, citing the same reasons, Turkish authorities announced a complete cessation of export and import transactions with Israel.
A new round of disagreements between the two states risks aggravating the internal political situation in Israel and its position in the system of international economic relations. Additionally, it signals that the Israeli leadership has not sufficiently elaborated its regional strategy, despite the country’s desire to continue normalisation with its neighbours, writes Elizaveta Yakimova.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/trade-adversaries-the-impact-of-the-idf-military/
#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Turkey #Israel
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In early April of this year, the Turkish Ministry of Trade suspended 54 categories of goods from being exported to Israel, ranging from construction materials to aviation fuel. Ankara said the introduction of restrictions had been motivated by the “gross violations of international law” the IDF had committed during Operation Iron Swords, and declared a ceasefire as a condition for the lifting of sanctions. In the first days of May, citing the same reasons, Turkish authorities announced a complete cessation of export and import transactions with Israel.
A new round of disagreements between the two states risks aggravating the internal political situation in Israel and its position in the system of international economic relations. Additionally, it signals that the Israeli leadership has not sufficiently elaborated its regional strategy, despite the country’s desire to continue normalisation with its neighbours, writes Elizaveta Yakimova.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/trade-adversaries-the-impact-of-the-idf-military/
#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Turkey #Israel
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Trade Adversaries: The Impact of the IDF Military Operation in the Gaza Strip on Economic Relations Between Israel and Turkey
If the situation does not improve in the short term, then measures of economic influence, in contrast to the verbal critical rhetoric that the President of Turkey most often used previously, could cause significant damage to bilateral relations, disrupting…
🇹🇷🌏 Over the past years, Turkey has been successfully fostering unity among Turkic-speaking peoples, and receiving economic and political dividends.
The Central Asian states gained independence more than thirty years ago and the region has largely remained outside the field of vision of the Western powers, which recognise it as being within Russia’s sphere of influence. However, this region has great mineral resources and infrastructure potential, which makes it a testing ground for diplomatic battles involving new political players.
Obviously, now it is the perfect time to redistribute spheres of influence in this region, because Russia is busy addressing the Ukraine crisis, and the majority of the population of Central Asia is a generation that grew up after the fall of the Soviet Union and is free of its cultural influence. Thanks to this, Turkey has an undeniable advantage there, which it certainly uses.
By promoting the idea of a shared past helps to establish relationships in completely different areas, Turkey is penetrating into the areas of defence, energy and culture, becoming a real counterweight to Russia, Anna Machina writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-challenge/
#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Turkey #CentralAsia
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The Central Asian states gained independence more than thirty years ago and the region has largely remained outside the field of vision of the Western powers, which recognise it as being within Russia’s sphere of influence. However, this region has great mineral resources and infrastructure potential, which makes it a testing ground for diplomatic battles involving new political players.
Obviously, now it is the perfect time to redistribute spheres of influence in this region, because Russia is busy addressing the Ukraine crisis, and the majority of the population of Central Asia is a generation that grew up after the fall of the Soviet Union and is free of its cultural influence. Thanks to this, Turkey has an undeniable advantage there, which it certainly uses.
By promoting the idea of a shared past helps to establish relationships in completely different areas, Turkey is penetrating into the areas of defence, energy and culture, becoming a real counterweight to Russia, Anna Machina writes.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-challenge/
#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #Turkey #CentralAsia
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Turkish Challenge in Central Asia
By promoting the idea of a shared past helps to establish relationships in completely different areas. Turkey is penetrating into the areas of defence, energy and culture, becoming a real counterweight to Russia, Anna Machina writes.
🇹🇷 The militarisation of Turkey’s foreign policy during Justice and Development Party rule has been accompanied by the weakening of the role of the Armed Forces and military institutions in the domestic political system.
The approach to the use of military force in Turkey’s foreign policy has become more complex, and at the same time its importance and possible options have increased.
For a long time, Turkey’s military industry has been critically dependent on Western financing, institutions and technology, the fragmentary manifestations and consequences of which persist today.
However, during the AKP period, the Turkish military-industrial complex has gone through two main stages of development: eliminating external dependence and developing the country’s internal potential and introducing a high-tech component of the military-industrial complex and entering the international market, writes Nubara Kulieva, a participant in the Valdai – New Generation project.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/military-aspect-of-turkey-s-foreign-policy/
#WiderEurasia #Valdai_NewGeneration #Turkey
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The approach to the use of military force in Turkey’s foreign policy has become more complex, and at the same time its importance and possible options have increased.
For a long time, Turkey’s military industry has been critically dependent on Western financing, institutions and technology, the fragmentary manifestations and consequences of which persist today.
However, during the AKP period, the Turkish military-industrial complex has gone through two main stages of development: eliminating external dependence and developing the country’s internal potential and introducing a high-tech component of the military-industrial complex and entering the international market, writes Nubara Kulieva, a participant in the Valdai – New Generation project.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/military-aspect-of-turkey-s-foreign-policy/
#WiderEurasia #Valdai_NewGeneration #Turkey
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