🇷🇺🌍 Russia-Africa: Two Halves of the Planet’s Heart

❓Is it possible to conduct a political dialogue amid the wholesale reformatting of the global space?
❓What is a natural partnership?
❓How are Russia-Africa economic relations progressing?
❓What is the fireproof safety net in Russia-Africa relations?
❓Is it possible to transform the Soviet legacy into real policies?

These issues were discussed by the participants in the Valdai Club Russia-Africa Conference held in St Petersburg on July 25, on the eve of the second Russia-Africa Summit.

The Valdai conference entitled “Russia and African Countries: Established Traditions of Interaction and Prospects for Cooperation in a New World” included four thematic sessions, two of which were open to the public.

We will tell our audience about them in brief and in the right order: https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/russia-africa-two-halves-of-the-planet-s-heart/

#AfricanValdai #RussiaAfricaSummit #RussiaAfrica

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🌐 The axiom of the Western foreign policy logic is the fundamental impossibility of a just international order.

This conclusion was made by our opponents not from scratch, and not simply from the desire to lay an ideological basis for a world order that meets only their interests. It arose during the course of a historical process, on the basis of the colossal experience of the history of interstate relations in Europe — perhaps the richest one, if we talk about such a geographically localized part of humanity.

Several millennia of turbulent social interaction and interstate clashes have served as such a compelling experience that they now constitute the basis of the political culture of the powers with which Russia historically has been in a state of confrontation.

The reason for this rooted injustice, as all Western science and civilization assures us, is that the balance of power of states is connected with objective factors of a geopolitical nature and therefore will always remain the cause of their inequality. It is impossible to solve this problem and, at best, we can only talk about reducing its negative impact on general security. This logic seems to be extremely reasonable. Moreover, since the mid-20th century, it has been backed up by the factor of nuclear weapons.

The basis of the modern international order is the procedure created by the countries of the West, and the central idea underlying this procedure is the immanent injustice of international politics. Even after Russia succeeds in Ukraine, it would be somewhat naive to expect our adversaries to change their views on the world, since it is tantamount to demanding a change in their philosophy of life, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-is-a-just-international-order/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #WorldOrder #geopolitics

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🌏 Due to its unique geographical and geopolitical location, Central Asia has always been a crossroads for great powers.

Due to the special background of relations between Central Asia and Russia, great power relations for the Central Asian countries are also of particular importance, even with regards to their political security. Therefore, the proper management of great power relations is not only a diplomatic skill for Central Asian countries, but also a way to secure the security and stability of their countries.

All the major powers are active in Central Asia, including China, Russia, the United States, Europe, India and Japan. This would not be a problem for the Central Asian countries if the major powers were on good terms, but the reality is that the relationship between the major powers in Central Asia is complicated, writes Zhao Huasheng.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/central-asia-in-change-beyond-the-great-game/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #CentralAsia #geopolitics

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🇷🇺🌍 What measures could help solve the problems of establishing foreign trade with the Arab world amid the current difficult situation facing Russia?

Among them, we highlight the following.

1️⃣ The use of the national currencies of the Arab countries, which are advantageous in terms of their characteristics, as a means of payment in bilateral trade between Russia and foreign countries. For example, using the UAE dirham in Russian-Indian trade to avoid the “imbalance trap” between exports and imports. From April 4 this year, trading in futures using the UAE dirham-Russian ruble and Indian rupee-Russian ruble currency pairs began on the Moscow Exchange.

2️⃣ Choosing the optimal national currencies of non-Arab countries to ensure transactions with Arab countries such as Syria. The issue of using the yuan was discussed in Damascus on April 29, 2023, at a meeting between President Bashar al-Assad and the representative of the Chinese government for the Middle East, Zhai Jun.

3️⃣ Promotion of digital currency projects with Arab countries with the technical assistance of Russia (similar to the Russian-Iranian agreement of 2018).

4️⃣ Encouraging Arab participation in multilateral financial, economic and investment projects in the BRICS, EAEU and SCO.

5️⃣ Connecting Arab companies and banks to national projects in the Russian Federation, for example, the Financial Messaging System of the Bank of Russia which has been operating since 2014 as an alternative to SWIFT. Currently 469 companies and banks from Russia and 12 foreign countries participate in it.

The dollar’s weakening trend does not mean that there are no challenges which may prevent other currencies from strengthening. The practice of the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries showed that the transition of foreign economic activity to national and clearing currencies requires not only political will, but also economic conditions, writes Igor Matveev @Remarks_of_Orientalist.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/de-dollarisation-in-trade-between-russia/

#ModernDiplomacy #currencies #dedollarization

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🌏 The history of the 20th and early 21st centuries proves that Eurasia continues to be the centre of global political processes, and that the geopolitical map of the world depends on the alignment of forces on the continent.

Analysing the new borders of the SCO, one involuntarily comes across the idea that they increasingly fit into the geopolitical map of the world conceptualised by the English scientist Halford Mackinder, as described in his works The Geographical Pivot of History (1904) Democratic Ideals and Reality (1919). Today’s contours of the alliance completely cover the territory of the so-called Heartland, which controls the river basins of the Arctic Ocean, as well as the Caspian Sea and the historical Silk trade corridor. However, the announced expansion of the SCO reaches the borders of the “Inner Crescent” — a territory capable of controlling the leading sea routes, including the Suez Canal and the New Suez Canal, which connect the Red and Mediterranean Seas. In other words, the contours of a new macro-region are being formed in the SCO space, with international “North-South” and “East-West” corridors, as well as key water arteries.

The expansion of the SCO towards the Rimland is of strategic importance, as since the Cold War, the American foreign policy strategy towards the Heartland has been to locate US military bases in the Rimland and foster the emergence of loyalist regimes there. Such a policy fits into the “anaconda” plan, which implies the control and strangulation of the Heartland territory. Accordingly, the integration of the Rimland countries into the SCO is the formation of a belt of friendly states, Daria Osinina writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/sco-new-borders-new-tasks/

#EconomicStatecraft #Rimland #Eurasia #SCO #geopolitics

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🇷🇺 In Western countries, the prevailing narrative often centres on Russia's supposed imminent collapse, overshadowing Russia's enduring determination to prevail over the crisis.

This narrative appears to be perpetuated by discussions among Western politicians on Russia’s perceived weaknesses, potentially diverting the Western establishment from seeking an end to the conflict.

The narrative of Russia's imminent implosion stems from the persistent notion that the country is vulnerable to internal collapse due to perceived fragility, vastness, and critical imbalances.

The on-going crisis acts as a substantial stress test for Russia, evaluating its ability to make sound decisions, display societal resilience, efficiently utilize resources, adapt its economic model, maintain its political system, manage information strategies, and navigate foreign policy challenges.

Despite the challenges in gauging Russia's situation from an external standpoint, this stress test has revealed Russia's remarkable adaptability, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/unravelling-the-russia-s-implosion-narrative/

#ModernDiplomacy #narrative

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💸🌐 Global debt has hit a record $300 trillion, or 349% leverage on gross domestic product.

Global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly.

We prepared an infographic on global debt. The high-res infographic is available via this link.

#valdai_infogaphics #finance

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🚩 The significant number of sanctions against Russia has naturally led to an increase in the number of attempts to circumvent them.

If before the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine (SMO) in February 2022, investigations into violations of sanctions regimes against Russia were a rather rare phenomenon; over the past year and a half, their number has increased decisively.

The relevant government departments of the US, the EU and other initiators of sanctions are developing the practice of disclosing schemes for circumventing sanctions, identifying typical signs of such attempts and summarizing Russia's experience adapting to new restrictions.

A classic situation of “arms and armour” confrontation arises, when the tightening of pressure leads to the search for ways to adapt to it, and the experience of adaptation is taken into account by the initiators in order to optimise the pressure. However, in the case of sanctions, this confrontation will not last forever.

It is easier for Russian business to avoid sanctions than to bypass them and risk criminal prosecution, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/weapons-against-armour-what-do-the-red-flags/

#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions #business

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🇳🇪 Niger today turned out to be central to the strategic interests of a number of global players.

▪️ Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world; the West African country is part of the so-called "Sahel Five".
▪️ It is a landlocked former French colony, most of its territory is located in the Sahara desert.
▪️ Niger provides 25% of all uranium supplies to the EU countries and more than 35% of uranium for the nuclear industry of France.

Now France, in fact, is in a hopeless situation. For it, the cessation of uranium supplies by the new government of Niger is tantamount to a declaration of war, similar to the Bailey incident. Without uranium from Niger, France will face an energy crisis and a decline in economic development, which will lead to a situation similar to what is happening now with the German economy, and will create the preconditions for a direct armed conflict in Africa.

What African solutions is Russia interested in? Traditionally, Russia has always supported the anti-colonial struggle of the countries of the African continent, and now, at the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, Vladimir Putin declared his support for African countries in their move for sovereignty. Thus, the desire of the people of Niger for sovereignty and refusal to exploit France's resources of the country finds support from Russia. As for those African countries that choose their own path, there is an excellent formula: "African problem/s - an African solution", and Russia recognises the right of African countries to make their own choice.

In the current situation with Niger, Russia will need will and wisdom not to weaken, but to maintain and strengthen our positions in Africa, writes Elena Kharitonova.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/strategic-issues-mirrored-by-events-in-niger/

#Norms_and_Values #Niger #Africa

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🇹🇷 Relations with Russia would be one of the key issues for Turkey as multipolarity gains momentum, but Ankara’s foreign adventures would go beyond.

For example, it is more likely than not that Turkey will continue with its search for possibilities and benefits in the emerging multipolar world. It will probably carry on a doubling down of its interest in the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and it will lead, as much as it can, the Organisation of the Turkish States, because numerous factors seem to dictate this multi-faceted and multi-dimensional foreign policy.

All evidence suggests that now, following his victory in the fiercely-contested election, Erdogan will navigate through its own route because this is roughly what the country’s prerequisites dictate. It is true that had the utterly pro-Western opposition won the elections they would have endeavoured to alter Turkey’s course, but even they would have found it quite difficult, if not impossible, to do so, without causing havoc in Ankara’s overall foreign relations. 

Although it seems certain that Ankara will be engaged more and more in multilateral policy in the emerging multipolarity, what needs to be borne in mind is that Turkey will have to do all this while remaining in NATO.

Turkey is not and will not be fighting for multipolarity to prevail but it will/would be set to benefit from that, writes Hasan Ünal.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-should-we-make-of-erdogan-s-latest-moves/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey

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🌾 The Ukrainian Grain Deal after Russia’s Withdrawal: A Peace Bridge or a Gordian Knot in the Black Sea?

The situation underscores that Russia's decision to pull out of the grain deal extends beyond mere financial considerations. Although current sanctions have constrained Russia's export agility, their impact remains limited. However, the Kremlin contends that the agreement primarily serves Ukraine's interests, with commitments made to Moscow being sidelined. Within this context, Moscow's demands were consistent with the July 2022 framework. 

The prevailing narrative from Russia indicates a preference for tangible actions over suggested alternatives as a condition for re-engaging in the grain deal. In this equation, Turkey and the UN Secretary-General emerge as potential mediators to persuade Russia. 

President Erdogan underlines the importance of the grain deal, which he calls “the peace bridge.” Thus, the reinstatement of this deal would bolster Turkey's global reputation and further its economic interests, writes Hasan Selim Özertem.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-grain-deal-after-russia-s-withdrawal/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #graindeal

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🇰🇷 In the wake of the Ukraine crisis, the existing world order and its principles, which have operated on the premise of US hegemony for the past 30 years, are being destroyed.

Although the outcome of the war is still unclear, some are paying attention to the possibility of a bipolar system forming, in which the US and China are each responsible for one axis due to Russia’s loss of its power status, while some are focusing on the possibility of a multipolar system forming, led by the US, China, Russia, and several other powers together. Other experts also point to aspects of “international disorder”.

The Ukraine crisis is a confrontation between the US and Russia to take the initiative in the world order. In other words, it is a military conflict between the US, which is trying to prevent the emergence of a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to maintain a unipolar system at the global level, and Russia, which is trying to become a hegemonic state in the post-Soviet region in order to help establish a multipolar system at the global level.

This crisis also poses new challenges for South Korea, which is thousands of kilometres away from the battlefield in Ukraine, writes Sung-Hoon Jeh.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/ukraine-crisis-and-south-korea/

#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #UkraineCrisis

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🚫🇰🇬 In the latest package of US financial blocking sanctions against Russia, introduced on July 20 this year, four companies from Kyrgyzstan were included. 

Such restrictions fit into an already-existing trend. Companies from friendly countries are under threat of blocking sanctions for dealing with sanctioned Russian entities or violating US export control rules. At the same time, Washington is stepping up work with the authorities of these countries in order to more effectively control the behaviour of foreign business, in a way that suits American interests.

Despite Russia's friendly relations or even alliances with a number of states, companies from these countries often continue to observe US sanctions laws.

Sanctions against third countries are unlikely to ensure the blockade of Russia desired by the Western initiators. This was not achieved even with respect to Iran, whose economy is smaller than Russia's. However, one should keep in mind the costs for business and not have illusions about the connection between political relations with friendly countries and the real strategies of business and authorities, taking into account sanctions risks from Western countries, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/us-sanctions-against-companies-from-kyrgyzstan/

#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions #Kyrgyzstan

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⚔️ Would the Ukraine crisis be limited to Ukraine’s territory?

Russia is fully cognizant that currently the American bureaucratic procedures governing the allocation of resources essential for sustaining Ukraine are duly reflected in the military budget for the upcoming fiscal year, implying that the conflict is unlikely to conclude within this timeframe.

Both the US Congress and the White House exhibit a shared comprehension and alignment in their objective to achieve “victory over Russia” on the battlefield. This institutional consolidation renders the United States a formidable adversary in this conflict, particularly within the scope of the annual timeframe.

Nevertheless, our interlocutors seem to be struggling to fully grasp the notion that Russia possesses invincible military capabilities. Russia has unequivocally conveyed its commitment to pursue its goals through any means necessary, even if it involves prolonged military action. Given such circumstances, negotiations would have been a more rational approach to dealing with Russia.

Understanding the significance of Ukraine to Russia and recognising the necessity of engaging in dialogue to address the matter would have been prudent. Russia will achieve its goals anyway.

Societies appear fatigued by the prolonged crisis, but this exhaustion has not yet led to significant shifts in public opinion among the European countries.

The Ukraine crisis would be limited to the territory of Ukraine only if no armed forces of NATO countries would enter the frontline, writes Valdai Club Program Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/would-the-ukraine-crisis-be-limited-to-ukraine/

#ModernDiplomacy #Ukraine #UkraineCrisis

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🇷🇸🇷🇺 Since the beginning of Russia's special military operation to protect the inhabitants of Donbass, Western pressure on Serbia has been constant.

Demands to impose sanctions on Russia are put forward by representatives of Western countries at every meeting with the country's leadership, regardless of the topic under discussion. Appeals to implement the anti-Russian measures are contained even in congratulatory telegrams.

The West is not limited to political pressure and the adoption of resolutions; it also threatens to tighten the visa regime and introduce economic restrictions, given the fact that the EU is Serbia's largest trading partner. In fact, it has threatened the imposition of sanctions against the country.

However, no sanctions against Russia have been imposed so far, and the Russian media outlets have not been closed down.

Refusing to support anti-Russian measures, the Serbian leadership takes into account, first of all, its political interests, as the Russian Federation supports the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Serbia, but also the opinions and moods of the country's inhabitants. 

Despite the geopolitical realities, all the challenges and difficulties that both sides face, relations between Russia and Serbia are strong at the present stage. If the history of bilateral relations teaches us anything, it is that if Russian-Serbian relations worsen, they will quickly improve, because contacts and ties remain.

Centuries-old spiritual and cultural ties, the historical past and historical memory have been and remain the guarantee of good bilateral relations, writes Milana Živanović.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/politics-geopolitics-history-russian-serbian/

#Norms_and_Values #Serbia

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🇷🇺🌍 While the Russia -Africa summit is not unique in the sense that other countries have also found it meaningful to interact with African heads of states in one forum (examples include the China-Africa summit, US-Africa summit, India-Africa summit, Japan-Africa summit and Turkey-Africa summit), what is unique about the recently concluded summit in St. Petersburg is the diversity in the nature of participants, issues and thematic areas that were addressed. 

There has been a growing number of summit diplomacy critics who view the events from a post-colonial lens and argue that African leaders should not gather to meet other heads of state because they are equally heads of states themselves. While this argument is simplistic and populist to an extent, it does offer an opportunity for African leaders to think of the possibilities of hosting other heads of state. This can serve as an opportunity for them to also showcase opportunities and a development agenda that can be implemented through cooperation with other countries. That, however, is not the only lesson that the summit in St. Petersburg offers.

1️⃣ For one, it shows that Africa can leverage its numbers to become a formidable agency at the international level, something individual countries are not likely to have. The collective strength of African states is consistent with Pan-Africanism and could be the vehicle by which the continent raises its issues to a level of priority.

2️⃣ Secondly, summit diplomacy should not be confused as an attempt to dilute or even get rid of bilateral relations. Indeed, during the Russia-Africa Summit, many bilateral agreements took place not only between Russia and an African state but also among African states themselves. Thus, such platforms should be seen as an effective opportunity to strengthen bilateral relations while looking at the bigger picture.

Furthermore, summit diplomacies can offer African countries a channel to explore different avenues of engagement by listening to the proposals on the table during one summit to another and strengthen cooperation with those that offer better terms of cooperation. The Second Russia -Africa summit did have numerous opportunities regarding this direction, even though some of these benefits were overshadowed by information warfare, writes Israel Nyaburi Nyadera.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-second-russia-africa-summit-lessons-beyond/

#Norms_and_Values #AfricanValdai #RussiaAfricaSummit

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🌍 Reflections on a multipolar world raise the important question of whether or not the representatives of this new world act as equals.

A situation is emerging in which the world of multipolarity is still the world of major regional players and their politicking. Multipolarity means having multiple agendas promoted by different players. Equality, on the other hand, could be ensured by multilateralism, when there is a balance of interests, traditions, cultures and rights among large, medium and small actors. But is this state of affairs suitable for large players? To what extent are the states promoting multilateral rhetoric able and ready to take into account the rights of their smaller neighbours? These issues have their own features in WANA.

The diplomatic recovery of 2023 and regional multipolarity without proper economic (projects already exist) and institutional consolidation of normalization agreements have the risk of a rollback to armed confrontation.

A commitment to inclusive regional development and equality, rather than individual big players, could be the basis of a new regional order, writes Ruslan Mamedov, Senior Research Fellow, Center for the Arab and Islamic Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/regional-multipolarity-vs-regional-multilateralism/

#EconomicStatecraft #multipolarity #multilateralism

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🇮🇹 In 2022–2023 the Italian Republic, like a number of other European countries, faced the sharp problem of diversifying energy supplies.

Winter 2022–2023 was extremely mild in Europe, which helped to prevent an aggravation of the energy crisis, but the situation continues to be quite serious.

During the premiership of Mario Draghi in Italy, a plan was launched to diversify energy supplies with the aim of gradually phasing out Russian gas, which is being replaced primarily by LNG, Algerian, Azerbaijani and Northern European gas. The government of Giorgia Meloni continues to follow this plan, with the declared goal of completely eliminating dependence on Russian gas by the winter of 2024-2025.

In fact, the refusal of Italy to us Russian supplies is postponing the “green transition” in the country, since the economic component does not allow the government to give it any preference.

The Italian Republic seeks to establish itself in two of the most important roles chosen for itself: an active independent actor in international relations and an important member of the pan-European home, consistently upholding the basic values of the EU.

Time will tell how successful such a “two chairs” policy can be, writes Svetlana Gavrilova, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science and Political Philosophy at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/italy-s-new-energy-policy-national-interests/

#EconomicStatecraft #Italy #energy #GreenTransition

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🇷🇺 In the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, Russia is defined as "an original civilisation-state, a vast Eurasian and Euro-Pacific power that has rallied the Russian people and other peoples that make up the cultural and civilisational community of the Russian world." 

For the first time in the history of modern Russia, in an official doctrinal document, the idea of the Russian world and the civilisational theory of social development were used as the basis for foreign policy planning and state self-identification. 

The success of the application of the civilisational approach in Russia will largely depend on the content of our system and the ability to filter out inefficient borrowed elements (be it membership in certain international institutions, the “import” of the West’s culture and lifestyle, or excessive economic dependence on foreign currencies).

An analysis of modern history makes it possible to adjust the long-term strategy of relations, taking into account the conjunctural features of the activity of civilisations in the external environment, writes Evgeny Tipailov, Ph.D., Executive Director of ANO "Institute for Problems of Interdependence."

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/a-civilisational-approach-to-state-building/

#EconomicStatecraft #CivilisationState #Russia

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🇺🇸🇯🇵🇰🇷 The first ever trilateral summit of the three states was held on August 18th in the residence of the current US president in Camp David, became a real breakthrough in the long, but rather sluggish process of the formation of this military-political structure.

First of all, it must be emphasised that the meeting itself and its results are an obvious and resounding success of US diplomacy. Washington, with the same hard pressure as in Europe, where it prides itself on how quickly and effectively it mobilised and subordinated its NATO partners to a single allied will, is energetically “lining up” its allies in East Asia as well.

One of the fundamentally important characteristics of the new pact was that, if earlier it was considered as a non-primary instrument intended exclusively for the Northeast Asian region with an eye on North Korea, now its main mission has become global and defined in ensuring the strategic tasks of the US allies throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The document “The Spirit of Camp David” states: “Our partnership is built not only for our peoples, but for the entire Indo-Pacific region.”

So, Washington continues with indomitable energy to build a new global architecture of military-political alliances which are under its direct control, along the perimeter of the borders of Russia and China, uniting the security infrastructure from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean into a self-contained power infrastructure.

This summit became a real breakthrough in the long, but rather sluggish process of the formation of this military-political structure. There are indeed grounds for seeing a real transformation of the organisation previously described in terms of a “coalition structure” into a quasi-full-format military-political security pact, writes Alexander Vorontsov, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/reincarnation-of-the-usa-japan-south-korea-triangl/

#EconomicStatecraft #UnitedStates #Japan #SouthKorea #CampDavid #IndoPacific

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