🧊🌐 Cooperation in the Arctic has been renowned for being largely immune to geopolitics.

Even at times of great power conflict during the Cold War, cooperation in the Arctic continued for mutually beneficial cooperation and trust-building. This era appears to have come to an end.

Over the past two decades, relations between the NATO countries and Russia have continued to deteriorate and the Arctic increasingly becomes the home of competing interests. The decision by the collective West to suspend cooperation with Russia in the Arctic Council over the war in Ukraine suggests that reliable cooperation in the Arctic has likely come to an end.

As Russia reduces reliance on NATO states and increases cooperation with non-Arctic powers in the high north, it is reasonable to expect that BRICS will become an Arctic institution.

The great economic realignment is increasingly organised with non-Western technologies, ships, insurances, investment banks and currencies. As the economic infrastructure is de-Americanised and transformed, it is reasonable to expect the institutional framework to change. This will also occur in the Arctic, Glenn Diesen @glenndiesen writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/room-for-cooperation-in-the-arctic/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Arctic #Eurasia #geopolitics

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🇷🇺🌏 Russia’s standing in Asia hinges on not only what happens in this region and Russia’s own efforts, but also on global developments, including the mounting China-US confrontation, the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s standoff with the West, and the emergence of the global majority phenomenon.

All these developments have a fundamental bearing on Russia’s policy to undertake a turn to the East, develop its Asian dimension, and readiness to build closer ties with Asian powers, as well as their receptiveness to cooperation opportunities with Russia, and, finally, the way the challenges and threats Russia and Asia face are perceived.

The authors of a new Valdai report, titled “Russia and Asia: The Paradoxes of a New Reality,” assess how Russia’s standing vis-à-vis Asian countries changed after the military and political conflict started in February 2022, as well as how regional development patterns have been affecting partnerships within this region.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/russia-and-asia-the-paradoxes-of-a-new-reality/

📍The report is devoted to the Valdai Club session “Open Far East in the World Economy: Achievements and Plans for the Future”, that is now taking place in Vladivostok, within the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF).

#Valdai_EEF #Asia_and_Eurasia #valdai_report

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🌏 On September 14-15, 2023, the Anniversary Consultative Meeting of the Heads of Five Central Asian States will be held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Five years have passed since the first meeting was convened at the initiative of Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, and a mechanism for consultations at the highest level was launched.

Today we can say with confidence that the hopes for a “informal club” of regional leaders have been fully justified. Moreover, this is true of all components, including political, economic, cultural and humanitarian ones.

The countries of Central Asia, as independent parties engaged in international relations, do not want the region to become an arena of multilateral competition in the spirit of the “Great Game”. They have other long-term interests: strengthening the neighbourhood as well as building peaceful, friendly, equal and mutually respectful among themselves and with the outside world, writes Rashid Alimov. 

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/central-asia-towards-a-new-calibre-of-relations/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #CentralAsia

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🇦🇫 In practice, over the past two years, the Taliban has not fully satisfied either positive or negative expectations.

The Taliban did not abandon its principles. The movement considers itself a liberator of the country from foreign occupation. They are confident that they deserve victory and have the right to be in power. No constitution, no elections, no inclusivity (no coalition government with anyone who isn’t “our own”). The Taliban’s right to power stems from its ability to take and hold this power.

The Taliban has held out and has generally managed to control power. It cannot be said that the Taliban order in Afghanistan is something completely unusual in comparison with other countries. Afghanistan under the Taliban fits into the spectrum of global diversity. However, long-term problems still remain. 

The Americans left, but faith in their myths about the prospects for economic development and expectations of corresponding projects from foreigners have remained. In terms of belief in these American myths, the Taliban is no different from the leaders of the previous pro-American government. Moreover, the Taliban tends to ask their regional neighbours for the implementation of American myths, Ivan Safranchuk writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/two-years-after-the-return-of-the-taliban/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Afghanistan #Taliban

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🇹🇷 The new presidential term of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who won the elections on May 28, 2023, fully reflects the key trends in Turkey’s political transformation over the past decade.

📍The most noticeable is the large-scale and consistent consolidation in the hands of the president of monopoly control over all branches of power

📍The dismantling of institutional checks and balances on presidential power, both on the part of state institutions and civil society

📍Desecularisation of public life in Turkey in general, especially in the sphere of education  

📍The offensive foreign policy, with the deepening of its militarisation and de-Westernisation 

On the way to his third presidential term, Erdoğan faced the biggest political challenge of his career. The rapid economic growth that characterised his early years at the head of Turkey gave way to a long-term financial and economic crisis. The Turkish lira over the past five years has depreciated more than five sixths against the dollar and the euro, losing more than 38% in the aftermath of the elections. 

Erdoğan and his supporters will have to seriously prepare for the municipal elections in the spring of 2024, in which the AKP plans to regain control of the largest cities – the capitals Ankara and Istanbul, as well as Antalya.

The municipal elections scheduled for March 2024 will be another major electoral test for Erdoğan. The president considers them “decisive” and regards them as a kind of vote of confidence, Pavel Shlykov writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/erdogan-s-new-term-what-changes-in-turkish-policy/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Turkey #Erdoğan

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🌏 Russia is a significant trading partner and a welcome element of regional food and energy security systems, not only for politicians, but also for business circles in Asia.

From the point of view of our eastern partners, the main aspect of Russia’s Pivot to the East 2.0 is that it provides a testing ground for solutions and projects for a new type of international cooperation: less vulnerable to sanctions or any unilateral decisions, and tailored to the fundamental and long-term interests of the participants.

This ambition is quite understandable – there is not yet a single country in the world with an economy comparable in scale and structure that has fallen under such large-scale sanctions. Russian pioneering in this case is not only a serious challenge, but also a potential asset.

However, this can only become an asset with the consistent construction of new infrastructure and the creation of cooperation networks, writes Anastasia Likhacheva.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/nets-over-ropes-or-the-new-priorities-of-the-pivot/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Asia #East

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🌏 BRICS and the SCO are the antipodes of NATO and the European Union -the pinnacles of the institutional building of the West.

NATO was built around the rigid core of absolute US military dominance over its allies. This allows this organisation to avoid serious internal conflicts, and also ensures its most important task - maintaining the strategic internal stability of the participants. All NATO governments are handing over the crucial function of defence planning to the United States, and in doing so, rid themselves of one of the most frequent sources of domestic political upheaval.

In the case of the European Union, it is about a more complex balance of power between the big countries, allowing the sustainability of overall cooperation despite the persistence of injustice towards the interests of the weaker countries.

BRICS and the SCO have nothing in common with this nature.

For the BRICS and the SCO, the risk of following the path of the West is much lower than one might assume, with traditional ideas about the consequences of strong institutions for global peace. In any case, both examples are new in their philosophy; an assessment of their nature and potential gives us rich material for a better understanding of how a more just world order can be organised, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/false-and-real-international-institutions/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #WorldOrder #BRICS #SCO

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🌏 Turan, Iran, Russia and China are the core around which the economic development of the non-European world will be built.

Today, as the BRICS association is becoming one of the most dynamically expanding economic conglomerates of states in the world, it is obvious that the trend of economic growth is shifting towards non-European countries. 

The question remains: is it possible to do without Europe? Here it is important to immediately outline the boundaries of what kind of Europe we are talking about - Europe as part of the Euro-Atlantic bloc, claiming world hegemony. The answer to the question is not so obvious; it requires a deep look into the future.

The fact is that in the case of Eurasian integration based on BRICS, SCO, ECO and with the participation of North Korea, a relatively coherent paradigm of regional relations is obtained. Its success will, over time, push Europe toward cooperation, most likely on more equal terms than it currently has.

These circumstances necessitate, first and foremost, the need for the Eurasian world to overcome Europe’s claims to hegemony. A strong Eurasian economic bloc cannot go unnoticed and without being involved in the world economy.

The Greater Eurasian Partnership will take on new contours in the near future, write Kubatbek Rakhimov and Alexey Mikhalev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/between-iran-and-turan-or-new-horizons-of-the-grea/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Iran #Russia #China #Eurasia #BRICS

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🌏 The United States prefers not to swing the “sanctions baton” in Central Asia.

During the year, only a few companies were subjected to restrictions. None of the major local players were affected by the restrictions. Washington fears that more radical measures could embitter local elites and reduce Western influence in the region.

The conflict between the West and Russia, as well as the degradation of the system of international relations, have given the countries of Central Asia a chance to rethink their role in the world, build new relationships with each other and push for the economic development of the region, writes Grigory Mikhailov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/central-asia-competition-or-cooperation/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #CentralAsia #Eurasia #sanctions

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🇷🇺🌏 Over the past decades, Russia’s policy in Asia has fallen loosely into the so-called “Asian Paradox.”

This term that became popular in academic and expert circles in the 1990s. In other words, it can be described as “hot economics and cold politics”, a pattern characteristic of Asia, where difficult and often toxic political relations between countries go hand in hand with close trade, economic and investment cooperation.

There are two prerequisites that led to the current situation.

1️⃣ First, the largest sub-regions (South, Southeast and Northeast Asia) were not of existential importance for Russia to the same extent as Europe or the post-Soviet space. As a result, Russia has never been involved in political and economic processes in Asia as thoroughly as in Europe or the former Soviet republics.

2️⃣ Second, a specific and at the same time strategic asset of Russia for a long time was the absence (with the exception of relations with Japan) of any serious contradictions relevant for maintaining a bilateral dialogue. Relations were devoid of severe historical trauma, as well as territorial and other disputes regarding the most sensitive issues. This favourably distinguished Russia from other major players – the USA and China.

The peculiarity of Russian participation in Asia is that it has not only refused to accept the classic formula of the Asian paradox, but also promoted alternative models of interaction.

The classic model of the “Asian paradox” in the current conditions is not applicable for Russia’s interaction with all major countries in the region. Moreover, Asia itself and the balance of power in the region have undergone changes, taking into account the active rise of China and India and a number of regional and global trends, Alexander Korolev writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/new-paradoxes-of-russian-policy-in-asia/

📑 Read more on Russia-Asia relations in the Valdai Report, titled “Russia and Asia: The Paradoxes of a New Reality”

#Asia_and_Eurasia #Asia #Russia #WorldOrder

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