🇷🇺🇨🇺 Russia, Cuba and ‘Emotional Geography’

On July 6, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the current state of bilateral relations between Russia and Cuba.

💬 Moderator Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club, stressed that Cuba, as during the times of the Cuban Missile Crisis, remains one of the central subjects of world geopolitics. He also noted that Russian-Cuban relations have a long history, and in recent years have received a significant boost.

💬 Dmitry Rozental, acting director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, having examined the history of relations between Russia and Cuba, pointed out that the two countries have always been close to each other. At the same time, Cuba has defended its own principles in international politics. In 2016, Russia experienced a surge of interest in Cuba after the post-Soviet chill. Trade and economic relations intensified at the same time. Today there are two main areas of Russian-Cuban cooperation – energy and infrastructure.

💬 Jose Ramon Cabañas, director of CIPI (Cuba), Ambassador of the Republic of Cuba to the United States (2012-2021) noted that a lot is changing now – the world is in a transition period. He expressed hope that as a result of these changes, Russian-Cuban ties will become even stronger. Relations between Russia and Cuba have great potential, although this is not the relationship that linked Cuba with the Soviet Union. Recognising the importance of historical ties and historical friendship between the two countries’ peoples, Cabañas noted that in the new world, interaction should be built in a new way.

💬 Italian geopolitical analyst Emanuel Pietrobon argued that Europeans perceive the Cuban issue and in general everything that happens in Latin America as an internal affair of the United States. “We are talking about the so-called ‘emotional geography’ – if the country is far away, then we simply do not see what is happening there,” he explained. At the same time, Pietrobon considers Cuba one of the most important countries in the world from a geostrategic point of view. Its geographical position is such that it is possible to challenge the United States from its territory. That is why the United States has historically always tried to take Cuba under control it in its zone of influence. The Cuban revolution of 1959 broke this “chokehold”, the expert stressed, and now Cuba remains a truly independent country, whose government is guided by national interests.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/russia-cuba-and-emotional-geography/

#ModernDiplomacy #Cuba #RussianArmy

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🌍 Africa has become an important geopolitical actor.

The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), the Tokyo International Conferences on African Development (TICAD), and US-Africa Summit in what has been termed as Africa+1 summit demonstrate that. In 2019, the Russia-Africa summit in Sochi was used to reset Russia’s recent engagement with Africa.

Africa and African leaders can utilise the summit diplomacy and needs to leverage its newfound centrality in global power play.

With Russia’s recent diplomatic charm offensive in Africa, some have argued that Africa is at the centre of a new Cold War while others have called it the new scramble for Africa. 

Coupled with China’s foothold in the continent in the past decade, it is increasingly becoming clear that Africa is at the centre of a geopolitical contest, writes Nicodemus Minde.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/africa-at-the-centre-of-a-geopolitical-battle/

#Norms_and_Values #Africa

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🌏 For a long time to come, external factors will remain a major security threat to the Central Asian countries. There is no doubt about it. However, in assessing security risks, more attention should be paid to internal factors as well as external threats.

Both terrorist activities and “colour revolutions” are mainly caused by domestic factors, and mainly carried out by domestic forces. Even foreign terrorist groups targeting Central Asian states are mostly comprised of those states’ own citizens. Of course, internal and external factors are intertwined and difficult to separate, but internal factors are fundamental.

Since internal problems present the greatest risk, the main way to maintain security and stability in Central Asia should be the elimination of internal problems, even if the barrier to external dangers should be built first and foremost at home.

In fact, the Central Asian countries have become increasingly aware of it, and the reforms underway in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are aimed at this end, writes Zhao Huasheng.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/central-asia-in-change-where-do-security-risks/

#Азия_и_Евразия #CentralAsia

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🇪🇺🚫 The European Union has introduced its eleventh package of sanctions against Russia.

The main intrigue of the package was restrictive measures against foreign countries and organisations that interact with Russia. It pertains to cooperation in those areas that are one way or another under EU sanctions.

Obviously, when developing new mechanisms, the EU was guided by the rich experience of the United States. Americans have been using three tools for a long time – secondary sanctions, the expansion of export restrictions, and criminal and administrative prosecutions. In the first case, the US Treasury simply imposes blocking sanctions on individuals and entities that are suspected of circumventing sanctions. Such measures were widely used against Russian counterparties abroad under all large packages of US sanctions in 2023.

The question is: how exactly will the European Union achieve the promotion of its export control rules and other sanctions against Russia abroad?

The course towards the economic blockade of Russia continues. Russia itself continues its policy of adapting to new restrictive measures, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/eleventh-package-of-eu-sanctions-what-s-new/

#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions

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⚔️ Hans Morgenthau, another prominent realist of the first half of the 20th century, wrote that war will not end until human nature is imperfect.

International relations are still well explained by the metaphors and maxims used in the History of the Peloponnesian War by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, when he commented on the rivalry between Athens and Sparta.

Russia’s break with the West is not a short-term phenomenon. Perhaps we are at the beginning of a long crisis that could last a decade or more.

The British historian Edward Carr once retrospectively described the 20-year period between the world wars as a “long crisis”. I admit that we are also at the beginning of a “new long crisis”, of which the Ukrainian crisis is only a part. It is also completely open whether or not everything will be limited to the conflict in Ukraine.

In the Russian tradition of training diplomats and analysts, disciplines are emphasised to make it possible to understand the true needs and interests of opposing partners. It is not necessary that if you understand them well, you will agree with them. This means that in the event of a conflict, you can, first, find a weak spot in the positions of the counterparty, and, second, let him understand that his needs can be satisfied in another acceptable way, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-ukrainian-crisis-as-a-laboratory/

#ModernDiplomacy #UkraineCrisis #diplomacy

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🌎 North Atlantic Treaty, signed on April 4, 1949, established NATO, a US-led military bloc to counter the Soviet Union. Later, there were nine enlargements of the organisation.

Learn more about the history of NATO's expansion and its current state in our video infographic.

#valdai_infogaphics #NATO #expansion

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🗣 #AfricanValdai: On July 25, 2023, St. Petersburg will host the Russian-African Conference of the Valdai Club, titled “Russia and African Countries: Established Traditions of Interaction and Prospects for Cooperation in a New World”.

📍The one-day conference on the eve of the second Russia-Africa summit will be held at the Corinthia Hotel, at 57 Nevsky Prospect.

More than 60 people from 12 countries have been invited to participate in the Valdai Club’s first African Conference, including guests from Algeria, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Ruanda, Russia and South Africa. Most of the guests are involved in the process of foreign policy planning in their countries. It can be expected, therefore, that the recommendations and results of the Valdai Club conference will have an applied nature and will fall on the table of leaders on the eve of the summit on July 27-28. The Valdai Club Conference will actually become the final synchronisation of watches at the expert level in the run-up to the summit.

In the new geopolitical conditions, Africa is becoming one of priorities of the Russian foreign policy. The Russian-African conference is aimed at holding a frank conversation about how Russian and African experts see the future development of the world, Russia’s position on the African continent, how the parties can interact in new economic, political and social conditions, and how to take relations to a new level, strengthening the traditional political solidarity.

📑 A new Valdai Club report, “Russia and Africa: An Audit of Relations” has been prepared for the conference; its presentation will take place on July 18 in Moscow. The report analyses relations in various fields since the first Russia-Africa summit in 2019. The report will shape the basis of discussions at the conference.

The conference agenda includes four sessions, each followed by media scrum:

🔹 Political dialogue between Russia and African countries: mutual understanding in a turbulent world;
🔹 Economic relations: an audit three years after the first Russia-Africa summit;
🔹 Culture, education, human connections: how to bring Russia and Africa closer to each other;
🔹 Soviet legacy in Africa: from the past to the future and general discussion.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/the-african-conference-of-the-valdai-discussion-club/

ℹ️ Information for the media: Dear journalists, in order to be accredited to the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763. Accreditation will end on July 24 at 17:00 Moscow time (GMT+3).

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, Twitter, Telegram and Dzen.

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🌏 Almost a year and a half after the crisis in relations between Russia and the West entered its phase of military-political confrontation in Ukraine, we can state that the impact of the European tragedy on the situation in the rest of Eurasia turned out to be less dramatic than one might think.

There are several main factors of stability in this space, with the exception of the South Caucasus.

1️⃣ First, most of this vast region is geographically remote from the main theatres of confrontation between the major powers. In other words, Greater Eurasia avoids what the science of the past decades likes to call “rifts” precisely because there is no one in particular to break the space between states.

2️⃣ Second, the internal political systems of the countries of Eurasia are still much more resistant to the temptations of radicalisation of their behaviour than was previously believed. We do not know exactly how the situation in individual countries will develop in the future, but right now they are demonstrating enviable stability.

3️⃣ Third, the international institutions created in the region turned out to be not subject to the destructive factors that operate in Europe. Organisations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) or the Eurasian Economic Union look less well-groomed than their ancient European counterparts. However, they have turned out to be more stable, which is undoubtedly good news for their participants.

Greater Eurasia is under the influence of challenges and threats of both internal and external origin, therefore peace and stability there are not guaranteed. However, one should not lose sight of the objective factors that make Greater Eurasia a more stable region in modern circumstances than would be predicted by an established view of the nature of international politics in its regional dimension, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/factors-of-stability-in-greater-eurasia/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #GreaterEurasia

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🌎 For the North Atlantic Alliance, the transition of the conflict between Russia and the West to a new phase with the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine created this very seemingly productive chaos.

Prior to this, for decades, NATO was in search of a social function and a corresponding renewal of its collective identity: from a military bloc that existed to contain the USSR to a crisis manager, an anti-terrorist organisation and a security conductor whose focus is already directed to the whole world.

By 2019-2020, as one of the main directions of the bloc’s potential development, the United States began to consider the possibility of using it to counter China in Asia. None of this contributed to centripetal tendencies: the problems of the unity of the allies did not leave the agenda, primarily between the United States and the large EU countries, which are by no means interested in a confrontation with the PRC.

Uncomfortable questions arose in connection with the need to increase defence budgets, transform the NATO military machine in the Asia-Pacific region, and develop European security projects, such as the Permanent Structured Defence Cooperation, the development of the Strategic Compass, and the strengthening of the European Defence Fund.

Russia’s operation in Ukraine seemed to have eliminated all these problems, returning NATO to an obvious and easily conceptualised sense of existence. The Madrid 2022 summit demonstrated a rare unity and transatlantic solidarity. The idea of a common enemy personified by Russia returned to the adopted new strategic concept, designed for eight years, and a decision was made to further strengthen the eastern borders of the alliance. It is also important that Germany, which resisted the increase in defence budgets for a long time, surrendered, Finland and Sweden began preparations for entry, and discussions of the membership of Ukraine and Georgia began again. In other words, all the prerequisites were created for NATO to move up the stairway of chaos.

Under these conditions, the semiotics of the 2023 Vilnius summit are again aimed at demonstrating the unity of the transatlantic allies, writes Julia Melnikova.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/nato-summit-in-vilnius-stairways-change-directions/

#EconomicStatecraft #NATO #NATOSummit

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💸 The blocking of the reserves of the Bank of Russia by Western countries, coupled with large-scale financial sanctions against Russian banks and companies, have raised the question of whether the advantages of dollarization can be offset.

The non-economic risks of US dollar transactions and dollar-denominated assets have become apparent to everyone, especially to central banks.

The share of the American currency in international reserves has been steadily declining over the past decades, but this has been happening quite slowly. If in the early 2000s about 70% of the reserves of the world’s central banks were in US dollars, since 2020 it has been below 60%. There was no drastic reduction in US dollar reserves in 2022. Its share in reserves fell by 0.44 percentage points, while its share in interbank transfers even increased.

The main reason for such rigidity in the seemingly understandable increased political risks is the lack of serious alternatives that can absorb significant amounts of savings from central banks.

The de-dollarization of the global financial system will continue. This will be facilitated primarily by the development of technology in the financial sector. The development of automated trading platforms helps to reduce the cost of exchanging one currency for another. Central banks will seek to conduct direct clearing with each other, not directly using the currencies of developed countries.

In the future, the digital currencies of central banks can also be used for international transactions, reducing costs for economic agents. However, this is a rather slow process, writes Marsel Salikhov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/de-dollarization-myth-or-reality/

#Valdai_WorldEconomy #dedollarization #dollar #economy #currencies

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📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On July 18, at 12:00 noon Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host a presentation of the report titled "Russia and Africa: An Audit of Relations", prepared especially for the Club's Russia-Africa Conference, which will be held on July 25 in St. Petersburg. The conference will be the final alignment of clocks on the eve of the second Russia-Africa summit.

The first Russia-Africa summit laid the foundation for deepening cooperation and expanding Russia's contacts with the countries of the continent. Over the past four years, the geopolitical landscape has completely changed. In the new conditions, Africa is becoming one of the most important priorities for Russian foreign policy and economic relations.

The new Valdai Club report, titled "Russia and Africa: An Audit of Relations" is dedicated to the analysis of relations since the 2019 summit. The authors set themselves the goal of assessing in detail how Russian-African relations have progressed in the political, economic, cultural and humanitarian spheres, and which areas of cooperation should be developed more actively. Experts note that amid the new geopolitical conditions, Russia needs a competitive African strategy, as well as a roadmap for its implementation.

❓What might Russia's African strategy look like?
❓What is needed for its successful implementation?
❓What is Moscow's competitive advantage over other countries seeking to cooperate with the region?

The authors of the report will try to answer these and other questions during the presentation.

🎙 Speakers:

🇷🇺 Lora Chkoniya, Research Fellow, Centre for Middle Eastern and African Studies, IMI MGIMO, MFA of Russia

🇷🇺 Elena Kharitonova, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences

🇿🇦 Rasigan Maharajh, Director General, Institute for Economic Research in Innovation at Tswane Technical University (South Africa)

🇨🇲 Roger Tsafack Nanfosso, Rector of the University of Dschang, Cameroon

🇰🇪 Israel Nyaburi Nyadera, Lecturer at Edgerton University (Kenya)

🇷🇺 Dmitry Poletaev, Leading researcher at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of Migration Research Centre

🇷🇺 Natalia Zaiser, Chair of the Board of the African Business Initiative Union

Moderator:

🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director, Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-russia-africa-relations/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the website, Twitter, Telegram and Dzen. 

#AfricanValdai #Africa

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💰 The US dollar (USD) as the major currency of international financial transactions and its use as global strategic reserve is key to US hegemony. This monopoly is being challenged for the first time.

Countries outside the collective West desire to shift away or at least diversify from using the dollar for international transactions and as strategic reserve currency. This collective anxiety of the global majority has accelerated after the US sanctioned Russia and froze billions of dollars of Russian strategic reserves.

The use of multiple national currencies in trade, of energy and food imports, are steps towards diversification and risk reduction. This gives countries outside the collective West options and choices that have become available as multipolarity consolidates. As dollar transactions decline, the value of US based strategic reserves will also decline – since the two are linked, writes Anuradha Chenoy.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-future-of-the-dollar-and-india-s-perspectives/

#ModernDiplomacy #dollar #dedollarization #BRICS #India

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🇮🇳 This is a world of interdependent fortunes and failures. ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’, which translates to "One Earth, One Family, One Future," is the theme of India's G20 presidency.

India wants a multipolar Asia and also a multi-polar world. India sees the USA, China, Russia, EU, and Brazil as other poles.

India is at the cusp of realising its ambition of becoming a leading power. The country is witnessing tangible and comprehensive national development, has graduated to pro-active and assertive diplomacy, and is progressing to achieve enhanced deterrence capabilities. It has also demonstrated national resolve to protect its territorial integrity and core interests.

The South Asian States and Indian Ocean littorals largely acknowledge India’s leadership and expect it to be a potential ‘net security provider’ in the region.

In order to meet its aspirations and regional/global expectations, it is imperative for India to be a leading economy backed by strong military capabilities with a secure and peaceful neighbourhood.

Challenges notwithstanding, the mantra for India’s transition from balancing to leading power entails developing comprehensive national power: economic development, diplomacy and deterrence are its three pillars, Maj Gen RPS Bhadauria writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/strategic-priorities-of-india-and-the-changing-int/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #India

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🌍 The conflict in Ukraine has had a major impact on North Africa, with each country taking a different approach and ultimately choosing sides.

Algeria, another country with large ammunition stocks, has been repeatedly asked and pressured by the West to supply arms to  Ukraine, but has always refused military involvement in the conflict.

The countries that chose active neutrality will probably benefit most from the post-conflict fallout, having maintained good relations with Moscow and Western capitals, Akram Kharief writes.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/interests-of-north-african-countries/

#ModernDiplomacy #NorthAfrica #Algeria

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🇷🇺🌍 The geopolitical landscape has changed beyond recognition in the time since the first Russia-Africa Summit was held in the autumn of 2019, laying the groundwork for an ambitious programme to expand Russia’s cooperation with Africa.

The actual global competition for Africa has become so fierce that it is impossible to ignore it. In addition, Russia’s geopolitical opponents are much more aggressively trying to create obstacles to cooperation with Africa than before.

The second Russia-Africa Summit scheduled for late July 2023 should define the prospects for further cooperation between Russia and Africa. In light of ongoing developments, Russia needs a smart and competitive African strategy and a workable roadmap to implement it.

A new Valdai paper, titled "Russia and Africa: An Audit of Relations" discusses ways to achieve this.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/russia-and-africa-an-audit-of-relations

#Norms_and_Values #Africa #Russia

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UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!

🎥 LIVE: at 12:00 noon Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host a presentation of the report titled "Russia and Africa: An Audit of Relations."

https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239108

📍 The report has been prepared especially for the Club's Russia-Africa Conference, which will be held on July 25 in St. Petersburg. The conference will be the final alignment of clocks on the eve of the second Russia-Africa summit.

#AfricanValdai #valdai_report

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📷 On July 18, 2023, the Valdai Club held a presentation of the report titled "Russia and Africa: An Audit of Relations."

Photo gallery of the discussion is available in this album.

The video of the discussion is available via this link.

Stay tuned!

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