🕹'Cyberpunk', Unpreparedness for the Wars Before the Absence of "Magic Wands": The Economic Lessons of the Conflict in Ukraine

On April 17, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The Conflict in Ukraine: Lessons for the Economy and Industry”, which was timed to coincide with the publication of  the report “Economic Statecraft: Lessons from the Conflict in Ukraine”.

💬 Discussion moderator Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, noted that when the world was preparing for conflicts, they were projected to be completely different: local and of relatively low intensity; these prevailing perceptions have since faded into the past. He invited participants to consider the lessons of what is happening from the point of view of economics, technology and industrial organisations.

💬 Alexander Yermakov, junior researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS and co-author of the report, pointed out that the world had forgotten about the last wars, and as a result, faced the problem of industry being unprepared to replenish stocks in the event of the high-intensity conflict typical of the last century. “We see that the arsenals of even major powers like the United States can be exhausted almost instantly,” he said. In his opinion, the United States can use its assistance to Ukraine as a pretext for "building up" its military-industrial complex, which needs to be modernised in the context of preparing for a possible conflict with China.

💬 Dmitry Stefanovich, researcher at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS and co-author of the report, described the current situation as “real cyberpunk”: a mixture of high and low technologies - a combination of a picture reminiscent of the First World War and the ubiquitous information systems and unmanned platforms. At the same time, advanced solutions often come not from the military, but from civilian industries. He also considers it important to realize that there are no "magic wands" and that even the best weapons work only in combination, but do not change the course of events by themselves.

💬 Prokhor Tebin, Head of the Sector of International Military-Political and Military-Economic Problems at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies of the Higher School of Economics, noted that before getting carried away by the issues of military power that have restored relevance, one should note that that this power is not an end in itself and that both it and its military-industrial complex  are tools for solving problems of state and national policy. In addition, the military-industrial complex needs a powerful base, which can only be a civilian economy. In addition, he emphasized that people remain the main priority and key resource. In this regard, Tebin called it important to increase the attractiveness of work in the Russian military-industrial complex and take care of technical education, including secondary specialised education.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/cyberpunk-unpreparedness-for-the-wars-before-the-absence-of-magic-wands-the-economic-lessons-of-the-/

#EconomicStatecraft #UkraineCrisis

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🇷🇺🌍🇿🇦 Cooperation between Russia and South Africa, the rest of Africa and with as much of the world as possible could help fortify humanity against the ever-present danger presented by black swans in the international system.

During the recent visit to South Africa of Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov, it was agreed that the two countries need to further deepen relations and cooperation in most spheres, including political, economic, security and social ones, as well as in multilateral and international forums. 

Today, South Africa and the rest of Africa are pursuing development for their growing population, in order to achieve higher development index scores. To achieve this, the AU has identified 15 flagship projects including digital technologies, logistics infrastructure, and health infrastructure, among others. The energy and agricultural sectors need significant investment. The gas belt running from West Africa to the south of the continent also needs significant investment for the development of gas economies. 

The Africa Continental Free Trade Area is a flagship project aimed at boosting intra-Africa trade and stimulating faster and more significant economic growth and economic development. This project involves not only the facilitation of free movement of good but also of people. It needs significant investment for logistics, security, and safety. 

A united world trumps a divided one; history has taught the world many lessons on this.

The 2023 Russia-Africa summit will be an important feature of not only the year but of future relations and development. Development remains a common pursuit of all peoples, writes Valdai Club expert Mikatekiso Kubayi.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/on-russia-south-africa-africa/

#Norms_and_Values #Africa #SouthAfrica

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🚫💎 Sanctions against Russian diamonds were not included in the tenth package of sanctions, but the initiative to ban their import was taken up by Western structures for coordinating sanctions.

On February 26, 2022, the American association of manufacturers of precious stones and metals, the Jewellers Vigilance Committee, announced the tightening of the global sanctions regime against the Russian diamond industry.

On February 28, Canada announced new sanctions against the Russian diamond industry, banning any dealings in diamonds of Russian origin. Such wording seems unprecedented, since it covers diamonds processed in third countries (in particular, in India, where Russian stones account for more than 30% of the market).

The intention of the Americans to tighten sanctions on March 17 at a meeting of the JWC association was announced by the head of the sanctions coordination office, James O'Brien. According to him, the tools of the Kimberley Process and the precedent of sanctions against Myanmar’s precious stones will be used as a basis. According to Politico, the US and EU countries plan to decide on the Russian diamond import ban by mid-May.

Having worked out the technology and mechanisms for coordinating and promoting sanctions initiatives in the information space over the course of 2022, the G7 plans to introduce a requirement for importers to confirm the non-Russian origin of diamonds appearing on the G7 markets.

A tracking tool should be a key element of the proposed ban, write Valdai Club experts Ekaterina Entina and Alexander Nadzharov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/on-the-road-with-trekking-how-to-sanction-diamonds/

#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions #diamonds

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🌍 Despite the traditional idea of the unity of the Arab world, the Middle East region as a whole is characterised by a heterogeneous economic, political, social and resource landscape.

The heterogeneity of the Middle East is largely determined by the scarcity of resources.

🔹 Most importantly — access to water. The Middle East is only home to 1% of the world's renewable fresh water reserves. 

🔹 Another equally important problem in the Middle East is the lack and inefficient use of farmland.

🔹 Not all countries in the Middle East have significant mineral resources. 

🔹 For a long time, the Middle East has remained the region with the highest level of social and economic inequality.

🔹 The gap between the elites and the main part of the population is complemented by the lack of adequate social mobility, due to the traditional corruption of countries, as well as access to quality education, healthcare, and often to transport. 

🔹 One of the manifestations of economic inequality in the Middle East is high unemployment, which stands at about 10%. 

Women's emancipation and gender equality are gaining active momentum in the region. Thanks to the digitalisation of the economy, there are new opportunities for the active inclusion of women in economic life. However, progress in this direction has not been achieved everywhere.

The era of the digital economy, with the growth of automation and the development of artificial intelligence, brings with it both new solutions (acceleration of the integration of the region into new global production chains) and new problems for the Middle East. 

Tatiana Gladenkova, Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Researcher at the Faculty of Geography of Moscow Lomonosov State University, writes on problems of inequality in the Middle East.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/problems-of-inequality-in-the-middle-east/

#Norms_and_Values #MiddleEast #inequality

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🌍 Against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical competition in Africa, the great powers are designing increasingly elaborate cooperation formats.

They use summits as their institutionalised framework of choice to build long-term relations and secure influence, resources and opportunities on the continent.

However, unlike the 19th Century “Scramble for Africa”, which was marked by exploitation, abuse and inequality, Africa today has a consolidated voice, abundant choice and greater freedom to build relations with external actors in a way that enhances its growth potential as a rising political and economic powerhouse.

Within this context, Africa’s biggest partners are taking their own approaches to hosting large-scale joint events with the continent, seeking creative ways to outdo their “competition” and secure their own niche in Africa’s future.

👉 Some are actively spearheading new formats, as in the case of Russia, which hosted the first ever Russia-Africa Summit in 2019.

👉 Others are resuscitating old ones, as the United States did in 2022 during the second US-Africa Leaders’ Summit, which took place after an 8-year-long hiatus following the first such event in 2014.

👉 Some are continuing long-term efforts, such as China in the case of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, which was launched 23 years ago, at a time when Africa was infamously written off as a “hopeless continent”by The Economist and faced limited partnership opportunities. The same goes for Europe in the case of the Africa-EU Partnership, which was formally established in 2000 at the first Africa-EU Summit in Cairo.

As the continent continues to grow, according to the underlying logic of the scramble for Africa is that, great powers either need to assert their influence or risk falling behind.

Considering the heightened interest, Africa can use the summits as a platform to lobby support for its own development programmes and projects, which are all important cornerstones of Africa’s sovereignty, writes Lora Chkoniya, Research Fellow at Center for Middle East and African Studies, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/summits-make-the-heart-grow-fonder/

#Norms_and_Values #Africa #summit

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🇷🇺🌍 The second Russia-Africa Summit has been announced for the end of July 2023. It should serve as a significant event in the development of our relations and set the agenda for the medium term. 

Starting from February 2022, the geopolitical situation in the world and the position of Russia have changed radically. Russia has departed from its usual, ordinary revisionism to pursue an open military and political challenge to the countries of the West.

As a result, the severity of the geopolitical struggle in the world has acquired a qualitatively different character. Accordingly, the pressure from the West on the rest of the world to cut contacts with Russia has become very powerful.

The countries of Africa were not spared this pressure. Therefore, the very fact that these countries maintain constructive contacts with Russia amid these conditions can be perceived as an act of political courage, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/relations-between-russia-and-africa-at-the-present/

#Norms_and_Values #Africa #Russia #UN

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🌐 Large-scale changes in the international order result in a paradox: diplomacy is heavily influenced by tactical manoeuvring, rather than strategic considerations.

This is especially noticeable in the example of the behaviour of Western countries; however, most of the rest are no exception.

Despite the fact that in popular literature, the ability to constantly manoeuvre is now, as a rule, one of the attributes of medium-sized states occupying an intermediate geopolitical position, it is precisely the large countries that have become true masters of this genre. Here we see that Europe, which despite its loyalty to transatlantic relations in the long term, certainly occupies first place.

The main powers of the European Union, acting in an individual capacity or under the guise of European institutions obedient to them, are in a state of permanent manoeuvring, as the outer contour of the West. This is true in relations with China, Russia or other countries of the so-called world majority, and with their direct partners; they are constantly entering into bargaining relations with Europe’s powerful patron, the United States.

In this regard, a relevant question that may confront experts of international politics is the following: are the general diplomatic manoeuvres simply part of the military activity that is growing on a global scale, or are they replacing the "big" negotiations about a new world order, about which theorists could dream of?

Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, writes on the modern diplomacy and the new world order.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/modern-diplomacy-and-the-new-world-order/

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💡🌏 Today, the global energy order that emerged after the energy crisis of the 1970s is undergoing structural changes.

It happens under the influence of energy transition policies, geopolitical conflicts, and the transformation of traditional economic relations; access to energy resources can be determined within the narrow framework of strategic and even military alliances.

These times of great upheaval present new challenges and opportunities for the Energy Club of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The key challenge for SCO member states and associate partners is how to turn the organisation’s Energy Club into an effective institutional body for harmonising their energy strategies and strengthening energy security, given the rapidly changing global energy architecture.

In the context of the transformation of the global energy order, the issue of increasing the role of the SCO Energy Club in managing energy processes at various levels is more acute than ever, writes Shamil Yenikeyeff, Professor, School of International Affairs, Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, Higher School of Economics.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-sco-energy-club-in-the-changing-global-energy-/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #energy #gas #oil #ШОС

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🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇺🇸 In Russian-Indian relations, along with the historical achievements and successes of recent years, there have been many objective problems.

They mainly relate to bilateral economic ties:

▪️ low rates of trade and investment activity;

▪️ a focus on several key areas (military-technical cooperation, nuclear energy, oil and gas sector);

▪️ a low awareness among private sector players regarding each other’s markets.

These problems are surmountable.

Russia needs to realize that the Indian political elites are expanding their contacts with the Americans not because of “pressure from Washington”, but because, in their opinion, cooperation with the US is in New Delhi’s national interests.

At the same time, Moscow has the right to expect from New Delhi a similar attitude towards the Russian-Chinese “relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction of a new era,” writes expert Gleb Makarevich, Deputy Head, Centre for the Indian Ocean Region Studies, IMEMO RAS.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/same-same-but-different-the-peculiarities/

#Norms_and_Values #India #UnitedStates #Russia #China

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🇹🇷 A distinctive feature of Turkey's foreign policy is its duality - the desire to maintain a high level of relations with Russia and to join the community of countries that are often called the ‘collective West’, which determine the global agenda.

Ankara’s ability to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Russia is facilitated by the significant volume of bilateral trade. By the end of 2022, the trade growth amounted to almost 50 billion dollars, making Turkey one of Russia’s top three trading partners. Energy remains the cornerstone of Russian-Turkish cooperation. 

Following the start of the Special Military Operation, Turkey demonstrated a responsible approach to security in the Black Sea region; it closed the Black Sea straits to all warships. At the same time, Turkey continues to officially declare its strategic course towards joining the EU. NATO remains a powerful instrument of Turkish influence in the West.

On May 14, parliamentary and presidential elections will take place in the Republic of Turkey. They will determine the face of the Turkish political system for the next five years. The main struggle is between two major political blocs: the ruling Republican Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) and the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı).

Alexander Vasilyev writes on possible changes in Turkey’s foreign policy after the presidential elections.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkiye-s-foreign-policy-in-the-context/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey

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✊🌐 Capital organises globally yet workers do not. As the US-led NATO powers escalate the Ukraine conflict into a new world war, this imbalance is becoming intolerable.

A new Valdai Report “A Worldwide Anti-Imperialist Left: Why It Is Needed, And What It Must Do” presents the case for a worldwide anti-imperialist Left, representing ordinary people committed to a just and peaceful multipolar world order. This will serve both the national interest of every country, and the general interest of humanity.

The work by Valdai Club experts Alan Freeman and Radhika Desai is controversial because in the West, those parties that identify as ‘Left’, headed by the allegedly left-leaning US Democratic Party, almost unanimously endorse the US-led proxy war on Russia.

Further confusion arises because many governments of the Right, such as India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, actively oppose sanctions, promote alternative trading relations to those hitherto imposed by the USA, and insist that Russia’s legitimate security concerns be given due consideration.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/reports/a-worldwide-anti-imperialist-left/

#Norms_and_Values #valdai_report #AntiImperialism #Left

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📆 #CentralAsianValdai: On May 16-17, Tomsk will host the Third Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club. The conference topic is “Russia and Central Asia: Aligning With a Changing World”.

About 60 experts from 10 countries — Russia, Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, will take part in this year’s Central Asian Conference.

📍 In keeping with tradition, the conference will be held in Russia. This year the Club is moving from the Volga region to the east, to the very heart of Siberia. This time, Tomsk State University, the oldest centre of professional training in Siberia, which celebrates its 145th anniversary this year, was chosen as the venue.

The geographical proximity of Siberia and Central Asia determines the strong cultural and economic ties between the two regions. Siberia has historically played the role of a transcontinental bridge between Europe and Asia. Over its long history, Tomsk has turned from an outpost on the border of the Russian Empire into a major intellectual and industrial centre that not only receives students and labour migrants from Central Asian countries but also maintains economic ties with these states.

Today, Russia and Central Asia represent a common political, economic and defence space. The Ukrainian crisis and the abrupt end to Western cooperation with Russia became just one of the many factors compelling Russia to deepen its ties with Central Asia. According to Valdai Club experts, the states of Central Asia have already demonstrated their readiness to serve as reliable partners for Russia as it faces a sharp aggravation of relations with the West and a general restructuring of the international order.

The theme of the conference is dedicated to linking the interests of Russia and the countries of the region with a changing world, understanding where the priorities of Russia and Central Asia fit in, and where they diverge from the logic of global events.

The Central Asian conference will last two days. The conference agenda will include an opening, four thematic sessions and an open discussion. The opening of the conference and the first session (May 16), as well as the final open discussion (May 17) will be available to the media and the general public and will be broadcast on the Club’s website.

The conference participants will discuss the following issues:

🔹 The political dimension of bilateral and multilateral cooperation between Russia and the Central Asian countries;
🔹 The new world economy and interaction between Central Asia and Russia;
🔹 Greater Eurasian partnership amid modern conditions;
🔹 New and traditional security challenges for the countries of the region and Russia.

Working languages: Russian, English.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/third-central-asian-conference-of-the-valdai-discussion-club/

ℹ️ Information for the media:  In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763 Accreditation is open until 14:00 Moscow time on May 15.

Links to live broadcasts of open sessions will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.

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🇷🇺🇩🇿 Moscow and Algiers, despite their geographical distance, share a common ‘historical DNA’ and a vision of what the world should become.

Despite a friendship that has lasted more than 60 years, this relationship has never yielded a beneficial alliance for both peoples and both economies. The launch of the SMO is an opportunity for Russia to sort out its international relations.

🔹 On the political level: Russia must facilitate Algeria’s access to the BRICS and strengthen its neutral and non-aligned positions.

🔹 Russia should relay and support Algeria’s anti-colonialist narrative regarding Western Sahara.

🔹 Algeria and Russia could organize an international summit on Mali and terrorism in the Sahel with human and material aid to the countries concerned, in order to develop their anti-terrorist capacities and their economies.

🔹 Algeria, Russia and Turkey could organize a reconciliation summit in Libya to provide for a real peaceful solution, an equitable sharing of power and wealth, and the exit of foreign forces.

🔹 With regards to the military, Russia should transfer part of its military production to Algeria by creating joint ventures with Algerian companies. It should also rely on Algeria to create an industrial base, maintain military equipment, and conduct training in Africa.

🔹 In terms of social and cultural relations, the two countries should pursue a visa-free regime. They should facilitate transportation by opening more airline routes linking several cities in both countries, and facilitate university enrolment and language teaching in Russian, Arabic and French. They should encourage tourism by training tourist guides in Russian and Arabic.

🔹 On the economic level, Algeria should set up a legal and fiscal framework allowing the investment of Russian companies, and help Russian companies to take advantage of Algeria’s strategic position and infrastructure to produce and export to Africa, Arab countries and Southern Europe.

🔹 Russia and Algeria could coordinate their efforts to dominate the supply of natural gas to Europe.

🔹 The exchanges between the two countries can also be extended to agriculture.

🔹 On the financial level, Algeria should integrate its banking system with that of Russia by adopting the Mir system and by exchanging directly in rubles.

A real strategic agreement between Algiers and Moscow could have an impact on the GDP of both countries, and reinforce Russia’s influence in the Western Mediterranean, in the Arab World and in Africa, writes Valdai Club expert Akram Kharief.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/algeria-russia-a-long-standing-friendship/

#ModernDiplomacy #Algeria

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🇷🇺🌍 Russia has planned a number of events related to the African continent for 2023.

First of all, they include the second Russia-Africa Summit, which is to be held in St. Petersburg in July 2023. This summit will take place amid new geopolitical circumstances, in conditions of fierce confrontation and active, even aggressive opposition from the countries of the “collective West”.

Since extreme poverty in Africa has not been eliminated, there are many problems that are still difficult to solve without “donor” support. Africa is forced to accept assistance from a number of countries, including its former colonial masters.

At the same time, Africans understand the complexity of the situation; they try to regulate the factors that make Africa dependent on finance and technology donor countries, and think about the need to maintain a balance of power.

Therefore, even despite the attempts of Western countries to increase pressure on Africa, including numerous “carrots” in the form of grants and promises of financial support, contacts between Russia and the countries of the African continent are developing.

The force of attraction between Russia and Africa has deep roots, which are not necessarily limited to the sphere of financial, trade and economic relations.

Understanding the deep foundations of Russian-African cooperation, knowledge of the problems Africans face, understanding the essence of their request for cooperation can become a serious competitive advantage for Russia in the current geopolitical conditions, writes Valdai Club expert Elena Kharitonova.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-africa-relations-in-search-of-grounds/

#Norms_and_Values #Africa

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