🇰🇷 Presidential elections will be held in South Korea in early March.

Given that there will be about a dozen candidates, as one might expect, everyone understands that the real struggle for the presidency will be led by representatives of the country’s two main political camps: Yoon Seok-youl, representing the right-wing conservative camp, which is now in opposition, and Lee Jae-myung, representing the moderate left-wing nationalists, who have been in power since 2017.

Nobody can predict the outcome of the elections: as often happens in Korea, polls show that both main candidates have almost equal support, so that everything will be decided in the last days or even hours.

Both the right-wing conservative and the progressive camps are almost equally emphasising their readiness to orient themselves towards Washington. Nevertheless, the conservatives accuse their opponents of not being pro-American enough in their stance. 

Of course, these accusations, like any election propaganda, are an exaggeration, but there is some small grain of truth in them, writes Valdai Club expert Andrei Lankov.

🔗 South Korean Presidential Election: Why Former Left-Wing Radicals Become Staunch US Allies

#Conflict_and_Leadership #SouthKorea

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇰🇷🇰🇵 The Republic of Korea and the DPRK still perceive themselves as post-colonial states.

At the same time, the pulling force of antipathy towards the former metropolis is so strong that the antagonistic North and South act from a unified position. Historical issues also outweigh political and economic conjuncture: Seoul, which is in the same regional pro-American “camp” as Tokyo, is ready to risk developed and mutually beneficial cooperation with Japan, in seeking recognition of its position on memory issues.

The loss of independence by Korea following the end of the 19th century and the subsequent period of Japanese colonial rule (1910-1945) have remained in the historical memory of Koreans as an era of national humiliation.

This collective trauma has not been fully overcome even today; moreover, it has become one of the supporting structures of modern Korea’s political myth and national identity, writes Valdai Club Expert Ilya Dyachkov.

🔗 Questions of the Past – Politics of the Future? Historical Issues in South Korean-Japanese Relations

#Norms_and_Values #SouthKorea #Japan

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇰🇷🇺🇸 It seems that Yoon Seok-youl’s administration wants to move closer to Washington, but the nature and pace of this process will neither be uniform nor unambiguous.

According to some theoretical views, the Republic of Korea has all the features of a so-called middle range power, capable of the independent protection of national interests and expansion of its influence within East Asia.

In this regard, we can expect further increased attention to Seoul from Beijing, which never misses an opportunity to reduce American influence, playing on the desire of some US allies and partners to become more independent. At the same time, China is capable, not only of shows of force and “wolf-warrior” rhetoric, but also exerting soft-power pressure through financial and economic instruments.

Despite Biden’s emphasis on the North Korean threat in a telephone conversation following the election results, it’s most likely that the Yun Suk-Youl administration still intends to counter a possible threat from the PRC as a medium-term priority. The likelihood of an unprovoked nuclear attack from the North is far less possible than the chances of the US-China disputes going into a “hot” phase, which would require Seoul to support Washington with troops and/or logistics.

At the same time, in the short term, the North Korean factor will undoubtedly be actively used by Seoul’s new authorities as a justification for rapprochement with the United States, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

🔗 South Korea on the Defence: US Pressure Is Stronger

#EconomicStatecraft #SouthKorea

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇰🇷🇰🇵 One gets the impression that at present both Pyongyang and Seoul are trying to aggravate the situation. 

Analysts acknowledge that the situation on the Korean Peninsula since the early 2022 has steadily begun to trend towards a consistent increase in tension.

But the events of recent weeks have given this process significant impetus.

The topic of an imminent new (seventh) nuclear test by the DPRK has begun to be actively discussed both in Seoul and Washington.

What one side considers a necessary measure of self-defence, the other side, not without reason, perceives as an “intolerable provocation”, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Vorontsov.

🔗 The End of Military and Political Stability on the Korean Peninsula

#EconomicStatecraft #DPRK #SouthKorea

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club

🇰🇵🇰🇷 Acute Stability: Lessons from the Korean Confrontation

On July 27, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the situation on the Korean Peninsula and timed to coincide with the release of the Valdai report titled “The Return of History. The Cold War as a guide to contemporary international crises”. 

Andrey Sushentsov, programme director of the Valdai Club, moderated the discussion. He noted that after the end of the Cold War, the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula was perceived by many as a relic of the past, but now, “when history has returned,” it seems to be a possible model for the future situation in Europe.

💬 Gleb Ivashentsov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Korea (2005–2009), RIAC Vice President, stressed that the Russian special operation in Ukraine coincided with the emergence of new tensions around the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula. “In recent years, North Korea has significantly increased its nuclear potential,” he explained, adding that there were statements from the DPRK about the possibility of using nuclear weapons against South Korea in the event of a military confrontation, although Pyongyang had always denied that it would do so before. In Seoul, in turn, the idea has firmly established itself that now North Korea will definitely not give up nuclear weapons.

💬 Andrey Kulik, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Korea, noted that almost seventy years ago, the Korean War took the lives of 2.5 million people, before it escalated into a frozen conflict - but a very peculiar one. On the one hand, the situation on the peninsula has remained generally peaceful all this time. On the other hand, in the 21st century, the DPRK acquired nuclear weapons, which brought the destructive potential of the conflict to a new level. “In recent years, the Russian Federation has made great efforts to find a way out of this situation,” the ambassador said, recalling the road map proposed by Russia in 2017 for the settlement. However, the United States turned towards denuclearisation instead of a comprehensive solution to the problems of the Korean Peninsula, and this only led the situation to a dead end.

💬 Gu Ho Eom, Director of the Asia-Pacific Center, and a professor of the Graduate School of International Studies at Hanyang University, suggested that military tensions between North and South Korea would increase. Speaking about the broader international context, the scholar emphasised that inter-Korean relations are now hostage to a new Cold War, in which the United States, China and Russia are involved. Nevertheless, he sees certain prospects for a settlement within the framework of an international approach, and he would consider it useful at the first stage to conclude a so-called low-level nuclear agreement as soon as possible.

💬 Ilya Dyachkov, Associate Professor at the Department of Japanese, Korean, Indonesian and Mongolian Languages, MGIMO, Russian Foreign Ministry, and RIAC expert, noted that although the situation on the Korean Peninsula has long been characterised by a certain degree of stability, “this stability is acute and rather turbulent.” This is exacerbated by the practical absence of channels for political communication between the parties. “It is imperative to change the interactions in the region, but this is a very difficult task,” he believes. Dyachkov denied linking the dynamics of the DPRK's nuclear missile programme to external factors, pointing out that North Korea intends to continue its nuclear developments in any event, considering them a guarantee of the state's survival.

#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #NorthKorea #ColdWar

@valdai_club

🇰🇷🇰🇵 Military tensions between the two Koreas will increase and the process of resolving denuclearization will become more difficult.

South Korea has alternately pursued an engagement policy and a pressure policy in successive governments, but both policies failed.

The Yoon Seok-yeol administration is in a position to pursue ’peace through strength’, such as warning a strong response to North Korea’s military threat. President Yoon also put forward the principle of keeping the door open for dialogue, but resolutely responding to North Korea’s unreasonable actions. It is evaluated that the threshold for the inter-Korean summit has been further raised as the denuclearization negotiations are pursued according to the “principle of reciprocity”.

In addition, there is a possibility that the Yoon administration will raise the issue of human rights in North Korea.

From a geopolitical point of view, since the US-China relations and the US-Russia relations are likely to deteriorate further after the Ukraine crisis, the structure of the new Cold War between Korea, US, Japan, and North Korea, China and Russia will become clear over the Korean Peninsula. Inter-Korean relations are also locked in the structure of the new Cold War, so it will be difficult to expect any progress in relations.

Since North Korea has said that it will not give up its nuclear weapons even if the sky falls, it is a situation that requires a creative policy that will surprise the sky, writes Gu Ho Eom, Director of Asia-Pacific Center, Professor of Graduate School of International Studies at Hanyang University.

📍The article is devoted to Valdai Club's expert discussion dedicated to the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea #NorthKorea

@valdai_club

🇰🇷 Last spring, the South Korean political class resumed a debate on a matter that until recently seemed to have been resolved long ago, once and for all and, accordingly, has remained off the table for several decades now. It’s about whether Seoul should withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and create its own nuclear weapons.

This matter is not yet covered in the media, but is widely discussed by diplomats, politicians and international relations analysts.

The country’s leadership is aware that developing nuclear weapons would lead to a confrontation between Seoul and the rest of the world and, most likely, to the imposition of international sanctions on South Korea, including UN sanctions. The nuclear option proponents hope, though, that their stance will find understanding with Washington, which would somewhat mitigate the impact.

Discussions about the US returning tactical nuclear weapons that were withdrawn from the Korean Peninsula in the 1990s have been going on for a long time, but they have noticeably intensified in recent months.

In addition, the desire to strengthen the alliance with the United States will mean that given the new circumstances, Seoul will spare no effort to prove its value and reliability to Washington. Unfortunately, Russia may well find itself on the receiving end of these efforts, writes Valdai Club expert Andrei Lankov.

#EconomicStatecraft #SouthKorea

@valdai_club

🇰🇷 There has been a significant rise of concern in South Korea recently about the state of national security.

One of the main reasons for concern has been the rapid development of the nuclear missile programme in North Korea. Pyongyang currently has delivery systems that allow it to strike the United States, while at the same time it is actively working to develop and deploy its own tactical nuclear weapons.

In an attempt to get out of the crisis, the South Korean political class is primarily discussing two possible solutions. First, they are talking about the possibility of South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons, and, second, about the return to the Korean Peninsula of American tactical nuclear weapons, which were withdrawn in the early 1990s.

In the event of an attempt to create its own nuclear weapons, South Korea would immediately face both international sanctions and harsh sanctions from China. However, the situation has recently begun to take such a turn that an increasing number of people in the South Korean establishment believe that these economic losses can be ignored, writes Andrei Lankov, Professor at the Kookmin University (Seoul).

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/nuclear-weapons-for-south-korea/

#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea

@valdai_club

🇯🇵🇰🇷 Relations between Japan and the Republic of Korea occupy an important place in the regional security complex of East Asia.

Meanwhile, the fact that both countries have agreements with the United States guaranteeing their military security does not make these neighbours real allies. Bilateral contacts are invariably accompanied by the issues each side has with the other.

In the context of significant differences between the positions of Japan and the Republic of Korea, interaction between these countries is potentially possible with the direct participation and mediation of Washington. The development of a tripartite protocol on countering security threats cannot be ruled out.

However, in the United States, apparently, they are betting on the militarisation of the Land of the Rising Sun in their own interests, without thinking too much about how this is perceived in the region, where they have already encountered the Yamato spirit so cherished by the West, writes Valdai Club expert Andrey Gubin.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/no-more-triad-prospects/

#EconomicStatecraft #Japan #SouthKorea

@valdai_club

🇰🇷🇺🇸🇷🇺 The Yoon Suk-yeol government appears to be attempting a careful change in its existing position towards Russia, prioritizing the restoration of Korea-US-Japan cooperation and the strengthening of the ROK-US alliance.

However, the Yoon administration has maintained a cautious stance toward Russia, which is a key partner in its Northern Policy and has influence over the North Korean nuclear issue.

As approximately 160 Korean companies operate in Russia, any deterioration in Korea-Russia relations would pose a significant economic burden on South Korea. Furthermore, if military cooperation between North Korea and Russia were to strengthen, it would present an even greater threat to South Korean security.

Therefore, it is not easy for South Korea to decide on arms support to Ukraine, despite considerable Western pressure on the Korean government for arms support, as seen in the recent US secret leak scandal.

The US seeks to integrate NATO more closely into the emerging Asian partnerships, AUKUS and QUAD, while also strengthening cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan. In this context, Washington wants South Korea, as a military power, to establish links with NATO through arms support to Ukraine, writes Valdai Club expert Gu Ho Eom.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/why-is-the-u-s-seeking-to-involve-south-korea/

#ModernDiplomacy #SouthKorea

@valdai_club