🇹🇷 Hüseyin Bağcı, Professor, Department of International Relations, Middle East Technical University, Turkey:
▪️ There is continuity between Putin and Erdogan because they are the most experienced politicians on the international arena.
▪️ The more problematic relations with US and EU become, the more is the number of “Russia understanders” in Turkey
▪️ Putin has been the most popular foreign politician in Turkey for years
▪️ Ukraine is the only country with which Turkey has zero problems, but Turkey’s policy is to be at the same distance with Russia and Ukraine
▪️ We should not be prisoners of the past, we should look into the future
▪️ Turkey doesn’t have the luxury of losing Russia – neither as an economic partner nor as a neighbor. Turkey will not alienate the Russian people
▪️ Turkey will be the most viable channel between Russia and the west
▪️ However, the more the conflict in Ukraine continues, the less Turkey’s resistance to US and EU will be.
🎥 Expert discussion “A New Model of Relations Between Russia and #Turkey in the Crisis of the International Order”
#Türkiye
@valdai_club
▪️ There is continuity between Putin and Erdogan because they are the most experienced politicians on the international arena.
▪️ The more problematic relations with US and EU become, the more is the number of “Russia understanders” in Turkey
▪️ Putin has been the most popular foreign politician in Turkey for years
▪️ Ukraine is the only country with which Turkey has zero problems, but Turkey’s policy is to be at the same distance with Russia and Ukraine
▪️ We should not be prisoners of the past, we should look into the future
▪️ Turkey doesn’t have the luxury of losing Russia – neither as an economic partner nor as a neighbor. Turkey will not alienate the Russian people
▪️ Turkey will be the most viable channel between Russia and the west
▪️ However, the more the conflict in Ukraine continues, the less Turkey’s resistance to US and EU will be.
🎥 Expert discussion “A New Model of Relations Between Russia and #Turkey in the Crisis of the International Order”
#Türkiye
@valdai_club
🇹🇷 Hasan Selim Özertem, political analyst (Turkey):
▪️ Until November 2015, instead of discussing political issues, we tried to compartmentalize relations. In November 2015, this strategy collapsed.
▪️ Now we have political dialogue but we are lacking an institutional structure. The relationship is still leader-oriented. We need to strengthen the role of foreign ministries and ministries of defence.
▪️ Differences remain on Syria, Libya and Ukraine.
▪️ Caucasus may become the next test case if the two sides create a success story between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
▪️ Economic asymmetry in the two countries’ relations will continue as long as high oil and gas prices are in place.
🎥 Expert discussion “A New Model of Relations Between Russia and #Turkey in the Crisis of the International Order”
#Türkiye
@valdai_club
▪️ Until November 2015, instead of discussing political issues, we tried to compartmentalize relations. In November 2015, this strategy collapsed.
▪️ Now we have political dialogue but we are lacking an institutional structure. The relationship is still leader-oriented. We need to strengthen the role of foreign ministries and ministries of defence.
▪️ Differences remain on Syria, Libya and Ukraine.
▪️ Caucasus may become the next test case if the two sides create a success story between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
▪️ Economic asymmetry in the two countries’ relations will continue as long as high oil and gas prices are in place.
🎥 Expert discussion “A New Model of Relations Between Russia and #Turkey in the Crisis of the International Order”
#Türkiye
@valdai_club
💬 Turkish political analyst Hasan Selim Ozertem also pointed to the importance of the economic partnership. At the same time, he noted that for a long time, against the backdrop of deepening economic relations, political issues were perceived as something separate. This led to the crisis of 2015, which was overcome with a lot of effort. After that, in 2016, the parties moved to a new stage, in which economic cooperation was combined with cooperation on regional crises, such as in Syria. In this regard, he suggested that the role of leaders in relations has grown precisely because in 2015 the power of institutional structures was not enough to cope with the crisis. However, relying on the personal factor, it makes the relationship fragile, so now we are talking about the transition to a third phase, which involves the search for an institutional framework. The SCO Samarkand summit reflected this.
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #Türkiye
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #Türkiye
🇸🇪🇫🇮🇹🇷 The process of Sweden and Finland acceding to NATO membership is not over yet. But recent developments show that a delay is inevitable due to tense relations between Turkey and Sweden.
28 member states of NATO, out of 30, have already approved Sweden and Finland’s accession to the alliance. After Hungary’s ratification, there is a risk that Turkey would be labelled as the sole gatekeeper. Still, it is not likely for Turkey to hurry up ratification. In May, there will be parliamentary and presidential elections, and the issue has already become a feature of domestic politics in Turkey.
Looking at the current equation, there are three scenarios before us:
1️⃣ First, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO before the elections. Such a scenario would necessitate a shift in the position of Stockholm, which would include the prevention of PKK protests, measures being taken against provocative demonstrations, and the extradition of terrorism suspects to Turkey.
2️⃣ Second, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Finland to NATO and leave Sweden in the waiting room. This possibility has been articulated by Turkish officials, including President Erdoğan himself. Nevertheless, the Finnish officials have declared that they would like to join the alliance together with Sweden. Still, any change in the position of Finland may push this scenario forward. Ratifying Finland’s membership to NATO can help the AK Party explain itself more easily to the alliance rather than being portrayed as a gatekeeper.
3️⃣ The third scenario is leaving the ratification to a date after the elections in May. In this case, there is a risk that Finland and Sweden may not participate in the summit in Vilnius as full members.
The AK Party has a conservative constituency and the issue has already become a matter of defending the dignity of Islam and Turkey. Thus, the Turkish president will use any shift in the position of Stockholm as leverage in the elections, while the stubbornness of Sweden legitimises Turkey’s position to blockade the expansion.
Looking at this picture, the dynamics of domestic politics in Turkey and Sweden have shaped the future of the North Atlantic Alliance, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkey-s-relations-with-sweden-the-puzzle-of-nato/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NATO #Sweden #Finland
@valdai_club
28 member states of NATO, out of 30, have already approved Sweden and Finland’s accession to the alliance. After Hungary’s ratification, there is a risk that Turkey would be labelled as the sole gatekeeper. Still, it is not likely for Turkey to hurry up ratification. In May, there will be parliamentary and presidential elections, and the issue has already become a feature of domestic politics in Turkey.
Looking at the current equation, there are three scenarios before us:
1️⃣ First, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO before the elections. Such a scenario would necessitate a shift in the position of Stockholm, which would include the prevention of PKK protests, measures being taken against provocative demonstrations, and the extradition of terrorism suspects to Turkey.
2️⃣ Second, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Finland to NATO and leave Sweden in the waiting room. This possibility has been articulated by Turkish officials, including President Erdoğan himself. Nevertheless, the Finnish officials have declared that they would like to join the alliance together with Sweden. Still, any change in the position of Finland may push this scenario forward. Ratifying Finland’s membership to NATO can help the AK Party explain itself more easily to the alliance rather than being portrayed as a gatekeeper.
3️⃣ The third scenario is leaving the ratification to a date after the elections in May. In this case, there is a risk that Finland and Sweden may not participate in the summit in Vilnius as full members.
The AK Party has a conservative constituency and the issue has already become a matter of defending the dignity of Islam and Turkey. Thus, the Turkish president will use any shift in the position of Stockholm as leverage in the elections, while the stubbornness of Sweden legitimises Turkey’s position to blockade the expansion.
Looking at this picture, the dynamics of domestic politics in Turkey and Sweden have shaped the future of the North Atlantic Alliance, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkey-s-relations-with-sweden-the-puzzle-of-nato/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NATO #Sweden #Finland
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Turkey’s Relations with Sweden: The Puzzle of NATO’s Expansion
The process of Sweden and Finland acceding to NATO membership is not over yet. But recent developments show that a delay is inevitable due to tense relations between Turkey and Sweden, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.
🇹🇷🇷🇺 Turkey’s multi-dimensional foreign policy exercises of late have given rise to endless speculations and contradictions across the world and in particular in the West.
It is epitomized by the Turkish President’s meetings with his Russian, Ukrainian and Iranian counterparts as well as his meetings with his Western partners, including Biden.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict Ankara has been pursuing a noticeably restrained and well-balanced policy without taking part in the western sanctions but at the same time keeping up its relations with its western partners closely.
Having rid itself of almost all its Middle-Eastern entanglements, which have cost Ankara an arm and a leg over the last decade or so, Turkey now stands to benefit from the opportunities accruing from a multipolar world order, something that it has become an unstoppable reality, however much the US and the Collective West are still trying to prevent it, but to no avail.
Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia does not seem to be circumstantial. It is true that, as its relations with the West and particularly the US are going through tough times Ankara turns to Russia for more cooperation but it is also true that Ankara would remain on this mutually beneficial track more firmly at a time of multipolarity just as it always sought good relations with the Soviet Union in the inter-war period, particularly in the 1920s and 30s, writes Hasan Ünal, Professor at Maltepe University, Istanbul.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-russian-rapprochement-imultipolar-world/
📌 This article was prepared for the 12th Middle East conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.
#mideastvaldai #MiddleEast #Turkey #multipilarity
@valdai_club
It is epitomized by the Turkish President’s meetings with his Russian, Ukrainian and Iranian counterparts as well as his meetings with his Western partners, including Biden.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict Ankara has been pursuing a noticeably restrained and well-balanced policy without taking part in the western sanctions but at the same time keeping up its relations with its western partners closely.
Having rid itself of almost all its Middle-Eastern entanglements, which have cost Ankara an arm and a leg over the last decade or so, Turkey now stands to benefit from the opportunities accruing from a multipolar world order, something that it has become an unstoppable reality, however much the US and the Collective West are still trying to prevent it, but to no avail.
Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia does not seem to be circumstantial. It is true that, as its relations with the West and particularly the US are going through tough times Ankara turns to Russia for more cooperation but it is also true that Ankara would remain on this mutually beneficial track more firmly at a time of multipolarity just as it always sought good relations with the Soviet Union in the inter-war period, particularly in the 1920s and 30s, writes Hasan Ünal, Professor at Maltepe University, Istanbul.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkish-russian-rapprochement-imultipolar-world/
📌 This article was prepared for the 12th Middle East conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.
#mideastvaldai #MiddleEast #Turkey #multipilarity
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Turkish-Russian Rapprochement in a Multipolar World
Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia does not seem to be circumstantial. It is true that, as its relations with the West and particularly the US are going through tough times Ankara turns to Russia for more cooperation but it is also true that Ankara would…
🇹🇷🇷🇺 In the era of globalization, where sovereign states have become much more interdependent at the global, regional, and sub-regional levels, international conflicts have been influencing each other to a significantly greater extent. A plain example is the current Ukrainian crisis, which has been deeply affecting the Syrian and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts.
Under such vulnerable circumstances, Russian-Turkish relations have become highly dependent on diplomatic “battles” between Ankara and Moscow over retaining vs. enhancing influence in different regions, namely, in Syria and the South Caucasus.
The military conflict in Ukraine has shaken the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Facing increasingly hostile West-Russia relations, the region keeps turning into a new confrontation zone, while Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to navigate to secure their vital interests. Thus, it is very important which side Turkiye takes in this battle, write Igor Matveev and Yeghia Tashjian.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/from-syria-to-nagorno-karabakh-assessing-russian/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NagornoKarabakh
@valdai_club
Under such vulnerable circumstances, Russian-Turkish relations have become highly dependent on diplomatic “battles” between Ankara and Moscow over retaining vs. enhancing influence in different regions, namely, in Syria and the South Caucasus.
The military conflict in Ukraine has shaken the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Facing increasingly hostile West-Russia relations, the region keeps turning into a new confrontation zone, while Azerbaijan and Armenia continue to navigate to secure their vital interests. Thus, it is very important which side Turkiye takes in this battle, write Igor Matveev and Yeghia Tashjian.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/from-syria-to-nagorno-karabakh-assessing-russian/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NagornoKarabakh
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
From Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh: Assessing Russian-Turkish ‘Co-opetition’
A pending possible withdrawal of US troops from North-Eastern Syria amid the unclear political future of the Syrian Kurds and their parallel economy is fraught with the risk of creating a sub-regional vacuum of power. It could eventually push Turkey and Russia…
🇹🇷 A distinctive feature of Turkey's foreign policy is its duality - the desire to maintain a high level of relations with Russia and to join the community of countries that are often called the ‘collective West’, which determine the global agenda.
Ankara’s ability to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Russia is facilitated by the significant volume of bilateral trade. By the end of 2022, the trade growth amounted to almost 50 billion dollars, making Turkey one of Russia’s top three trading partners. Energy remains the cornerstone of Russian-Turkish cooperation.
Following the start of the Special Military Operation, Turkey demonstrated a responsible approach to security in the Black Sea region; it closed the Black Sea straits to all warships. At the same time, Turkey continues to officially declare its strategic course towards joining the EU. NATO remains a powerful instrument of Turkish influence in the West.
On May 14, parliamentary and presidential elections will take place in the Republic of Turkey. They will determine the face of the Turkish political system for the next five years. The main struggle is between two major political blocs: the ruling Republican Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) and the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı).
Alexander Vasilyev writes on possible changes in Turkey’s foreign policy after the presidential elections.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkiye-s-foreign-policy-in-the-context/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey
@valdai_club
Ankara’s ability to maintain mutually beneficial relations with Russia is facilitated by the significant volume of bilateral trade. By the end of 2022, the trade growth amounted to almost 50 billion dollars, making Turkey one of Russia’s top three trading partners. Energy remains the cornerstone of Russian-Turkish cooperation.
Following the start of the Special Military Operation, Turkey demonstrated a responsible approach to security in the Black Sea region; it closed the Black Sea straits to all warships. At the same time, Turkey continues to officially declare its strategic course towards joining the EU. NATO remains a powerful instrument of Turkish influence in the West.
On May 14, parliamentary and presidential elections will take place in the Republic of Turkey. They will determine the face of the Turkish political system for the next five years. The main struggle is between two major political blocs: the ruling Republican Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) and the Nation Alliance (Millet İttifakı).
Alexander Vasilyev writes on possible changes in Turkey’s foreign policy after the presidential elections.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkiye-s-foreign-policy-in-the-context/
#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Turkey’s Foreign Policy in the Context of the Presidential Elections: Should We Expect Changes?
The institutions for the development of Russian-Turkish relations have been inscribed into the structure of bilateral relations since 2010. Regardless of who wins the elections, it is important to maintain a high level of Russian-Turkish relations and to…
🇹🇷 The presidential elections in Turkey are scheduled for May 14.
For all their undoubted importance for Turkish society, one cannot fail to note the fact that these elections are now attracting close and sometimes highly emotional attention in Russia as well.
🔹 In the most apocalyptic forecasts, one can read that if Erdogan loses, then Russia’s last window of opportunity will close, and the situation will become completely gloomy.
🔹 At the same time, there is an opinion that if Erdogan wins, then Russia should not expect anything good either.
🔹 The Turkish president has been skilfully kept Russia on a string for years, and after such a victory he will continue to do so with even greater pleasure.
In general, the assessments are polarized; one might even say bipolar. In any case, they are dialectical.
Both the high degree of emotional response to the Russian media image of President Erdogan and the understandable acuteness of the current geopolitical situation have led to a situation when Russian society is now awaiting the Turkish elections with only slightly less excitement than Turkey itself, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/elections-in-turkey-and-anxiety-in-russia/
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
For all their undoubted importance for Turkish society, one cannot fail to note the fact that these elections are now attracting close and sometimes highly emotional attention in Russia as well.
🔹 In the most apocalyptic forecasts, one can read that if Erdogan loses, then Russia’s last window of opportunity will close, and the situation will become completely gloomy.
🔹 At the same time, there is an opinion that if Erdogan wins, then Russia should not expect anything good either.
🔹 The Turkish president has been skilfully kept Russia on a string for years, and after such a victory he will continue to do so with even greater pleasure.
In general, the assessments are polarized; one might even say bipolar. In any case, they are dialectical.
Both the high degree of emotional response to the Russian media image of President Erdogan and the understandable acuteness of the current geopolitical situation have led to a situation when Russian society is now awaiting the Turkish elections with only slightly less excitement than Turkey itself, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/elections-in-turkey-and-anxiety-in-russia/
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Elections in Turkey and Anxiety in Russia
Both the high degree of emotional response to the Russian media image of President Erdogan and the understandable acuteness of the current geopolitical situation have led to a situation when Russian society is now awaiting the Turkish elections with only…
🇹🇷 Sinan Oğan, a candidate from the right-wing bloc — ATA Alliance — got 5.22% of the vote in the Turkish presidential election on Sunday, becoming the third after incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Check out some of his articles written in 2017-2018 for the Valdai Club, where he discusses relations between Turkey and the West, Turkey and NATO.
In his opinion, the main principle should be a “balanced policy” in the Turkish foreign policy. However, a harsh American tone can bring the situation to a deadlock. Most probably, Turkey will maintain pursuing alternative ways rather than the West, like BRICS.
🔹 NATO-Turkey Crisis: How Far Can It Go?
🔹 Turkey Drifts Away from the West, but How Far Will It Go?
#Turkey
@valdai_club
Check out some of his articles written in 2017-2018 for the Valdai Club, where he discusses relations between Turkey and the West, Turkey and NATO.
In his opinion, the main principle should be a “balanced policy” in the Turkish foreign policy. However, a harsh American tone can bring the situation to a deadlock. Most probably, Turkey will maintain pursuing alternative ways rather than the West, like BRICS.
🔹 NATO-Turkey Crisis: How Far Can It Go?
🔹 Turkey Drifts Away from the West, but How Far Will It Go?
#Turkey
@valdai_club
📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On May 30 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion on the results of the presidential elections in Turkey.
The presidential elections in Turkey are in the focus of the international political and expert community. In the first round, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won 49.52% of the vote, beating opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu by almost 5%. The results of the first round show that the preferences of voters were divided between the main candidates almost equally, which is why the results of the second round are of particular interest both at home and abroad.
Amid the current geopolitical conditions, Turkey retains its key importance for Russia. The country seeks to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and is an active participant in the Black Sea grain deal, which was extended on May 17. Moreover, after the closure of European airspace for Russian aircraft, the main tourist and business flows from Russia have taken place through Turkey.
❓What can Moscow expect from Turkey's foreign and domestic policy after the elections?
❓Will there be continuity in Ankara's political course towards Russia?
❓Which areas will be affected by the changes, and which areas of cooperation can be developed?
Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.
🎙 Speakers:
🇹🇷 Hasan Selim Özertem, political analyst, Turkey
🇷🇺 Pavel Shlykov, Associate Professor, Department of History of the Countries of the Near and Middle East, ISAA, Lomonosov Moscow State University, RIAC expert
🇹🇷 Hasan Ünal, Professor, Maltepe University (Turkey)
🇷🇺🇹🇷 Alexei Yerkhov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Turkey @embrusturkey @MFARussia
Moderator:
🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club
https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-results-of-the-presidential-elections-in-turkiye/
Working languages: Russian, English.
ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club
The presidential elections in Turkey are in the focus of the international political and expert community. In the first round, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won 49.52% of the vote, beating opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu by almost 5%. The results of the first round show that the preferences of voters were divided between the main candidates almost equally, which is why the results of the second round are of particular interest both at home and abroad.
Amid the current geopolitical conditions, Turkey retains its key importance for Russia. The country seeks to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and is an active participant in the Black Sea grain deal, which was extended on May 17. Moreover, after the closure of European airspace for Russian aircraft, the main tourist and business flows from Russia have taken place through Turkey.
❓What can Moscow expect from Turkey's foreign and domestic policy after the elections?
❓Will there be continuity in Ankara's political course towards Russia?
❓Which areas will be affected by the changes, and which areas of cooperation can be developed?
Participants of the expert discussion will try to answer these and other questions.
🎙 Speakers:
🇹🇷 Hasan Selim Özertem, political analyst, Turkey
🇷🇺 Pavel Shlykov, Associate Professor, Department of History of the Countries of the Near and Middle East, ISAA, Lomonosov Moscow State University, RIAC expert
🇹🇷 Hasan Ünal, Professor, Maltepe University (Turkey)
🇷🇺🇹🇷 Alexei Yerkhov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of Turkey @embrusturkey @MFARussia
Moderator:
🚩 Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club
https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-results-of-the-presidential-elections-in-turkiye/
Working languages: Russian, English.
ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#Norms_and_Values #Turkey #elections
@valdai_club