π°π·π°π΅ One gets the impression that at present both Pyongyang and Seoul are trying to aggravate the situation.
Analysts acknowledge that the situation on the Korean Peninsula since the early 2022 has steadily begun to trend towards a consistent increase in tension.
But the events of recent weeks have given this process significant impetus.
The topic of an imminent new (seventh) nuclear test by the DPRK has begun to be actively discussed both in Seoul and Washington.
What one side considers a necessary measure of self-defence, the other side, not without reason, perceives as an βintolerable provocationβ, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Vorontsov.
π The End of Military and Political Stability on the Korean Peninsula
#EconomicStatecraft #DPRK #SouthKorea
@valdai_club β The Valdai Discussion Club
Analysts acknowledge that the situation on the Korean Peninsula since the early 2022 has steadily begun to trend towards a consistent increase in tension.
But the events of recent weeks have given this process significant impetus.
The topic of an imminent new (seventh) nuclear test by the DPRK has begun to be actively discussed both in Seoul and Washington.
What one side considers a necessary measure of self-defence, the other side, not without reason, perceives as an βintolerable provocationβ, writes Valdai Club expert Alexander Vorontsov.
π The End of Military and Political Stability on the Korean Peninsula
#EconomicStatecraft #DPRK #SouthKorea
@valdai_club β The Valdai Discussion Club
Valdai Club
The End of Military and Political Stability on the Korean Peninsula
There is the understanding that, along with the events that took place on March 31 this year with the launch of ICBMs, the alleged test of a nuclear weapon, also carried out for the first time since 2017, will begin a new cycle of aggravation of the militaryβ¦
π°π΅ The recent launches have clearly demonstrated that the DPRK has finally become a nuclear power.
North Korea is becoming or has already become the third country in the world β after Russia and China β that is capable of delivering a nuclear strike on US territory.
On the Korean peninsula today there is a real deadlock situation. However, it will not come to a direct military conflict. None of the participants in the current confrontation is interested in a military conflict.
North Korea will not start a military conflict, because it knows that in this case it will be subjected to a nuclear strike by the United States, which is bound by allied obligations with South Korea. But the United States will not start a conflict either, writes Valdai Club expert Gleb Ivashentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #DPRK
@valdai_club
North Korea is becoming or has already become the third country in the world β after Russia and China β that is capable of delivering a nuclear strike on US territory.
On the Korean peninsula today there is a real deadlock situation. However, it will not come to a direct military conflict. None of the participants in the current confrontation is interested in a military conflict.
North Korea will not start a military conflict, because it knows that in this case it will be subjected to a nuclear strike by the United States, which is bound by allied obligations with South Korea. But the United States will not start a conflict either, writes Valdai Club expert Gleb Ivashentsov.
#ModernDiplomacy #DPRK
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Illusory Stability: Is It Possible to Escalate the Crisis on the Korean Peninsula?
The belligerent statements that the United States, North Korea and South Korea have been making about each other over the past few weeks, and the steps they have taken to mobilise their existing arsenals, suggest that a sharp escalation of tension may occurβ¦
π ANNOUNCEMENT: On May 29 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a discussion on the prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains one of the worldβs most serious international security problems. Attempts by the United States and its allies in the region to influence the foreign policy of the DPRK by βupgradingβ the sanctions regime of the UN Security Council by adding their own unilateral measures has not led to policy changes in policy changes in Pyongyang.
Today we can talk about a new round of the arms race playing out on the Korean Peninsula, in which each side is trying to find the best option in responding to the military threats of the enemy. In the short and medium term, new steps by the DPRK to build up the nuclear missile capabilities, as well as strengthening coordination between the United States and the Republic of Korea, are quite likely. China and Russia remain an important factor in the security situation on the Korean Peninsula.
βWhat are the consequences of the development of the DPRKβs nuclear missile programme for the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula?
βWhat are the positions of the members of the UN Security Council on the security of the Korean Peninsula?
βHow can the Republic of Korea and the US contain the DPRK?
βHow will the role of China and Russia in security issues on the Korean Peninsula change?
Participants of the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.
π Speakers:
π·πΊ Konstantin Asmolov, Leading Researcher, Center for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Modern Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences
π·πΊ Dmitry Kiku, Deputy Director of the External Restrictions Control Department of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, an expert in the field of customs and export control of the Group of Experts of the UN Security Council Committee on the DPRK
Moderator:
π© Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director, Valdai Discussion Club
https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-situation-on-the-korean-peninsula-1/
Working languages: Russian, English.
βΉοΈ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#EconomicStatecraft #KoreanPeninsula #DPRK
@valdai_club
The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains one of the worldβs most serious international security problems. Attempts by the United States and its allies in the region to influence the foreign policy of the DPRK by βupgradingβ the sanctions regime of the UN Security Council by adding their own unilateral measures has not led to policy changes in policy changes in Pyongyang.
Today we can talk about a new round of the arms race playing out on the Korean Peninsula, in which each side is trying to find the best option in responding to the military threats of the enemy. In the short and medium term, new steps by the DPRK to build up the nuclear missile capabilities, as well as strengthening coordination between the United States and the Republic of Korea, are quite likely. China and Russia remain an important factor in the security situation on the Korean Peninsula.
βWhat are the consequences of the development of the DPRKβs nuclear missile programme for the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula?
βWhat are the positions of the members of the UN Security Council on the security of the Korean Peninsula?
βHow can the Republic of Korea and the US contain the DPRK?
βHow will the role of China and Russia in security issues on the Korean Peninsula change?
Participants of the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.
π Speakers:
π·πΊ Konstantin Asmolov, Leading Researcher, Center for Korean Studies, Institute of China and Modern Asia, Russian Academy of Sciences
π·πΊ Dmitry Kiku, Deputy Director of the External Restrictions Control Department of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, an expert in the field of customs and export control of the Group of Experts of the UN Security Council Committee on the DPRK
Moderator:
π© Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director, Valdai Discussion Club
https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-situation-on-the-korean-peninsula-1/
Working languages: Russian, English.
βΉοΈ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our web site. If you have any questions about the event, please call +79269307763
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#EconomicStatecraft #KoreanPeninsula #DPRK
@valdai_club
β° TODAY at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a discussion on the prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
βWhat are the consequences of the development of the DPRKβs nuclear missile programme for the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula?
βWhat are the positions of the members of the UN Security Council on the security of the Korean Peninsula?
βHow can the Republic of Korea and the US contain the DPRK?
βHow will the role of China and Russia in security issues on the Korean Peninsula change?
Participants of the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#EconomicStatecraft #KoreanPeninsula #DPRK
@valdai_club
βWhat are the consequences of the development of the DPRKβs nuclear missile programme for the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula?
βWhat are the positions of the members of the UN Security Council on the security of the Korean Peninsula?
βHow can the Republic of Korea and the US contain the DPRK?
βHow will the role of China and Russia in security issues on the Korean Peninsula change?
Participants of the expert discussion will answer these and other questions.
A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the Twitter, Telegram and Zen.
#EconomicStatecraft #KoreanPeninsula #DPRK
@valdai_club
UPD: The livestream is over. The video of the discussion is available via the same link. Stay tuned!
π₯ LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting a discussion on the prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239099
#EconomicStatecraft #KoreanPeninsula #DPRK
@valdai_club
π₯ LIVE: at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), we are starting a discussion on the prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239099
#EconomicStatecraft #KoreanPeninsula #DPRK
@valdai_club
Vk
LIVE: Situation on the Korean Peninsula. An Expert Discussion
On May 29 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a discussion on the prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. More: https://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/video/situation-korean-peninsula/
π°π΅π°π· Two Koreas in 'Iron Triangles'
On May 29, 2023, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
π¬ The moderator of the discussion, Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the club, noted that although the Korean theme had fallen into the background in news headlines, security issues on the Korean Peninsula remain one of the key international problems.
Timofeev stressed that now new factors have appeared in the security equation on the Korean Peninsula. The development of the DPRKβs nuclear programme is underway, the defence potential of the Republic of Korea is changing, and cooperation between South Korea and the United States is deepening. Relations between Moscow and Seoul are changing because of the special operation in Ukraine. The Republic of Korea follows an export control regime with the United States, there are concerns related to the alleged supply of military ammunition from South Korea to Ukraine and the supply of Korean weapons to some NATO countries.
π¬ Dmitry Kiku, Deputy Director of the External Restrictions Control Department of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, pointed out that international law has eroded. This also affects the Korean problem. The United States feels extremely free in its interpretation of UN Security Council resolutions. Under Trump, America turned a blind eye to North Korean missile launches, unless it involved ICBMs. Under Biden, Washington changed its policy and, in addition, returned to joint exercises with South Korea, which Pyongyang sees as a threat to its national security. Subsequently, North Korea resumed ICBM launches. When speaking about the situation on the Korean Peninsula, one cannot ignore the Russian special operation in Ukraine and the Taiwan factor.
π¬ Global turbulence means the beginning of the formation of a new world order, said Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Centre for Korean Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences. This new world order is characterised by the fragmentation of the economic, political and information space. In Northeast Asia, this trend is embodied in a return to the bloc system. Instead of a single space in the region, two "iron triangles" are being formed: Moscow - Beijing - Pyongyang and Washington - Tokyo - Seoul. In the context of a return to the bloc system, practical goal-setting is more important than general norms.
https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/two-koreas-in-iron-triangles/
#EconomicStatecraft #KoreanPeninsula #DPRK
@valdai_club
On May 29, 2023, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
π¬ The moderator of the discussion, Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the club, noted that although the Korean theme had fallen into the background in news headlines, security issues on the Korean Peninsula remain one of the key international problems.
Timofeev stressed that now new factors have appeared in the security equation on the Korean Peninsula. The development of the DPRKβs nuclear programme is underway, the defence potential of the Republic of Korea is changing, and cooperation between South Korea and the United States is deepening. Relations between Moscow and Seoul are changing because of the special operation in Ukraine. The Republic of Korea follows an export control regime with the United States, there are concerns related to the alleged supply of military ammunition from South Korea to Ukraine and the supply of Korean weapons to some NATO countries.
π¬ Dmitry Kiku, Deputy Director of the External Restrictions Control Department of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, pointed out that international law has eroded. This also affects the Korean problem. The United States feels extremely free in its interpretation of UN Security Council resolutions. Under Trump, America turned a blind eye to North Korean missile launches, unless it involved ICBMs. Under Biden, Washington changed its policy and, in addition, returned to joint exercises with South Korea, which Pyongyang sees as a threat to its national security. Subsequently, North Korea resumed ICBM launches. When speaking about the situation on the Korean Peninsula, one cannot ignore the Russian special operation in Ukraine and the Taiwan factor.
π¬ Global turbulence means the beginning of the formation of a new world order, said Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Centre for Korean Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences. This new world order is characterised by the fragmentation of the economic, political and information space. In Northeast Asia, this trend is embodied in a return to the bloc system. Instead of a single space in the region, two "iron triangles" are being formed: Moscow - Beijing - Pyongyang and Washington - Tokyo - Seoul. In the context of a return to the bloc system, practical goal-setting is more important than general norms.
https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/two-koreas-in-iron-triangles/
#EconomicStatecraft #KoreanPeninsula #DPRK
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Two Koreas in βIron Trianglesβ
On May 29, 2023, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the prospects for the development of the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The moderator of the discussion, Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the club, noted that although the Korean themeβ¦
π·πΊπ¨π³π°π΅ The prerequisites for the resumption of strategic cooperation between Moscow, Pyongyang and Beijing were brewing against the background of the tightening of Washington's policy towards North Korea under the Biden administration, as well as NATO's military deployment in the Indo-Pacific region.
πΉ So, in 2021, the AUKUS bloc (USA, Britain and Australia) was created, which involves the assistance of Washington and London in the appearance of a nuclear submarine fleet in non-nuclear Australia.
πΉ The Quadripartite Security Dialogue QUAD (Australia, India, the USA and Japan) has already been branded as an anti-Chinese NATO; Canada has proposed the creation of a four-way cooperation structure involving South Korea, Japan, and the United States to counter Russia and China.
πΉ There are more and more persistent signals from Seoul and Tokyo that they are not averse to hosting American nuclear weapons or acquiring their own, which, again, would grossly violate the international non-proliferation regime.
In this regard, the visit to Pyongyang by high-ranking officials from Russia and China is as much moral support as it is a clear sign of the revival of the Russian-Chinese-North Korean coalition, designed to effectively counter the escalation of tension on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region as a whole.
The participation of Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu in the celebrations in Pyongyang, dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the victory of the Korean people in the Patriotic Liberation War of 1950-1953, was a clear signal to Washington and Seoul about the transformation of Russian policy on the Korean Peninsula in favour of recognizing the DPRK as an important military-political partner, writes an independent analyst Vitaly Sovin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-north-korea-china-reactivation/
#EconomicStatecraft #Russia #China #DPRK #geopolitics
π£ π£ π£
πΉ So, in 2021, the AUKUS bloc (USA, Britain and Australia) was created, which involves the assistance of Washington and London in the appearance of a nuclear submarine fleet in non-nuclear Australia.
πΉ The Quadripartite Security Dialogue QUAD (Australia, India, the USA and Japan) has already been branded as an anti-Chinese NATO; Canada has proposed the creation of a four-way cooperation structure involving South Korea, Japan, and the United States to counter Russia and China.
πΉ There are more and more persistent signals from Seoul and Tokyo that they are not averse to hosting American nuclear weapons or acquiring their own, which, again, would grossly violate the international non-proliferation regime.
In this regard, the visit to Pyongyang by high-ranking officials from Russia and China is as much moral support as it is a clear sign of the revival of the Russian-Chinese-North Korean coalition, designed to effectively counter the escalation of tension on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific region as a whole.
The participation of Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu in the celebrations in Pyongyang, dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the victory of the Korean people in the Patriotic Liberation War of 1950-1953, was a clear signal to Washington and Seoul about the transformation of Russian policy on the Korean Peninsula in favour of recognizing the DPRK as an important military-political partner, writes an independent analyst Vitaly Sovin.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-north-korea-china-reactivation/
#EconomicStatecraft #Russia #China #DPRK #geopolitics
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Valdai Club
Russia-North Korea-China: Reactivation of the Strategic Triangle
The prerequisites for the resumption of strategic cooperation between Moscow, Pyongyang and Beijing were brewing against the background of the tightening of Washington's policy towards North Korea under the Biden administration, as well as NATO's militaryβ¦
π°π΅ Modern North Korea is a full member of the nuclear club.
Its nuclear missile potential has crossed the bar of minimum deterrence and is an important factor in deterring military conflict on the peninsula.
The DPRK clearly positions itself as a nuclear power: this status is included in the country's constitution, and one of the six nuclear tests was declared as a hydrogen bomb test.
The United States will have to learn to live with the knowledge that North Korean nuclear weapons will be aimed at the American heartland, writes Konstantin Asmolov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/north-korea-s-nuclear-potential/
#DPRK #NorthKorea #NuclearWeapons
π£ π£ π£
Its nuclear missile potential has crossed the bar of minimum deterrence and is an important factor in deterring military conflict on the peninsula.
The DPRK clearly positions itself as a nuclear power: this status is included in the country's constitution, and one of the six nuclear tests was declared as a hydrogen bomb test.
The United States will have to learn to live with the knowledge that North Korean nuclear weapons will be aimed at the American heartland, writes Konstantin Asmolov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/north-korea-s-nuclear-potential/
#DPRK #NorthKorea #NuclearWeapons
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https://vk.com/video-214192832_456239230
#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #DPRK #NorthKorea
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VK ΠΠΈΠ΄Π΅ΠΎ
LIVE: Russia-DPRK Treaty and the security situation in Northeast Asia. An Expert Discussion
On November 27 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion dedicated to the Russia-DPRK Treaty and the security situation in Northeast Asia. More: https://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/video/live-russia-dprk-treaty-and-the-securityβ¦
#Multipolarity_and_Connectivity #DPRK #NorthKorea
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