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⚠️🌐 From a functional point of view, strengthening the Russian deterrence arsenal is very likely to be a key NATO activity in the near-term.

It is familiar to the alliance from the Cold War period – these are regular military exercises, the positional nature of the deployment of troops, the aforementioned development of military capabilities.

Today, two opposite processes can be observed. On the one hand, from the territory of NATO countries, first, arms are supplied to Ukraine: not only from United States, but also Germany, which changed its initial decision during the operation [Initially, Berlin refused to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine, today it is officially known that it intends to deliver 500 MANPADS Stinger and 1,000 anti-tank systems, 400 hand grenade launchers, 14 armoured personnel carriers and fuel]. Turkey does not provide military assistance free of charge, but thematic exports have increased. 

Second, due to internal reshuffles, the alliance’s borders in Central and Eastern Europe – Slovakia, Poland, Romania, the Baltic States, Bulgaria, as well as the US grouping in Europe – are being strengthened. Third, on March 14, one of the largest NATO manoeuvres, Cold Response 2022, began in Norway.

On the other hand, these actions do not necessarily lower the escalation threshold. For example, there is no question of renouncing the restrictions of the Founding Act of Russia-NATO relations on the non-deployment of nuclear weapons in the “new” countries of the alliance. Moreover, as a result of mutual signals an understanding was formed of the inadmissibility of a large-scale war. 

From an ideological point of view, the situation favours the development of a common threat narrative that is understandable to all as a central element of transatlantic solidarity for solving both internal (maintaining the military-industrial complex and bureaucracy, interdependence of allies) and external (passive security) tasks.

In conditions where the information field is heated to the limit, alternative points of view are subject to “cancel culture”, leaving two options – support for a common course or cautious silence. Both help rather than hinder NATO’s focus on deterring Russia in the short term, writes Julia Melnikova, RIAC Program Coordinator.

🔗 The Europe of Political Realism and the Future of NATO – Back to Basics?

#EconomicStatecraft #NATO

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
🏰 The new security system in Europe will be based on mutual hostility.

But this will be a variant of hostility that precludes provocative behaviour. Such behaviour is possible only in a situation where no one believes that the other side will attack you. After the outbreak of hostilities on February 24, there is no such belief among the NATO countries anymore.

👉 On the one hand, this will entail an increase in the military spending of European states and a change in the geography of the forward deployment of NATO forces and assets. They will be closer to Russia's borders.

👉 But, on the other hand, there will be an increased responsibility for the use of these forces and means. Any incident will provoke a crisis that does not correspond to the vital interests of European states.

The result of the system of checks and balances will be a "cold peace" - the best possible option for today, writes Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.

🔗 Towards a 'Cold Peace' in Europe

#ModernDiplomacy #coldpeace #NATO #Europe #Ukraine

@valdai_club — The Valdai Discussion Club
📃🌎 The picture of the alliance's world formulated for the Madrid summit is fundamentally different from the one presented in 2010, when, amid conditions of peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region, NATO could afford the luxury of formulating threats in a general matter.

However, it differs both from the communiqué and from the report of the 2021 expert group in which the main mega-trend in the development of the external environment of the alliance is the revival of great power competition as a challenge to the “rules-based order”. 

The new document more sharply and frankly captures the features of the present, which should determine the policy of the alliance in the future, writes Julia Melnikova, RIAC Program Coordinator.

#EconomicStatecraft #NATO #NATOsummit

@valdai_club
📃🌎 A Predictable NATO Summit in an Unpredictable World

On July 1, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion on the results of the NATO summit and the new strategic concept of the alliance.

The discussion was moderated by Andrey Sushentsov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).

The participants discussed the new strategic concept of the alliance, the change in its ideological underpinnings, as well as the  accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO and  Turkey’s response to this process.

💬 Alexander Grushko, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation,  noted that the results of the NATO summit will still be subjected to a thorough analysis both from a political and military point of view. Speaking about his impressions, he called the Madrid summit "the most predictable in the history of the alliance", adding that in Madrid the organisation had "completed an evolutionary somersault in its development and returned to its roots, that is, to the military security schemes of the Cold War”. He also stressed that now the alliance is declaring a threat to the very existence of Russia as a state, and confrontation with Russia on all fronts using all tools is becoming a new NATO ideology. "The vector of NATO's military activity is predetermined - it is the threat from the east, it is the containment of Russia," the diplomat summed up.

💬 Gregory Simons, author and researcher from Uppsala, Sweden, has analysed the situation surrounding Sweden and Finland joining NATO. “Sweden and Finland have joined the ideological project based on a unipolar world, integrating ever deeper into Western-centric institutions,” Simons said. They want to be members of this exclusive club. As a result, these countries voluntarily give up the role of subjects in international relations and become objects, he added.

💬 “What NATO has succeeded in is marketing itself,” said Igor Istomin, Associate Professor at the Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems, and Senior Research Fellow at MGIMO's Center for Advanced American Studies. He called the NATO Strategic Concept the most striking example of such "overrated advertising".

💬 Hüseyin Bagci, Professor, Department of International Relations at Turkey's Middle East Technical University, noted that the consequences of what is happening now will be no less than those of the Second World War. If then there was a transition to a bipolar world, now the world is moving towards multipolarity. Describing the position of Turkey, the political scientist noted that it is important for Ankara to simultaneously have some points of influence within Western structures while maintaining good relations with Russia.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/a-predictable-nato-summit-in-an-unpredictable-world/

🎥 The video of the discussion is available here.

#NATO #NATOsummit

@valdaiclub
✌️🌐 This in turn helps us define what the left should be, which is actually the intention of its founders: an alliance between the working and poor people of all countries, based on the common needs of all humanity, not just one privileged part of it, and least of all on the racial fantasy that any one part of humanity is born superior to another.

Such a left, in the Western World, hardly exists. It has rotted from within under the Hubristic delusion that so-called “Western Civilization” entitles it to tell everyone else what to do.

Peace calls for a global left, that truly represents the working and poor people of the whole world, recognises all of them as genuine equals, and places their common rights, and their common needs, above those of property-owners and their profits.

Such a left is the only path to peace, Valdai Club expert Alan Freeman writes.

#Norms_and_Values #NATO #Ukraine

@valdai_club
📆 ANNOUNCEMENT: On February 9, at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “The Baltic Region: What Will the Unprecedented Militarisation Lead to?”

The Baltic Sea region remains one of the most vulnerable in terms of security and the risk of escalation in relations between Russia and NATO. Against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine, an unprecedented militarisation was launched. Finland and Sweden head towards NATO membership.

The defence spending of other regional players which are NATO members has increased significantly. The militarisation of Poland and Germany is especially noticeable.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland are at the forefront of the anti-Russian political line in both NATO and the EU.

The risks of a transport blockade of the Kaliningrad region and a threat to Russian shipping are growing, including Estonia’s recent statements about the contiguous zone. Military deterrence and sanctions are the common denominator of the region’s policy towards Russia. At the same time, the accumulated economic ties with Russia, as well as formats of multilateral dialogue, are being eroded. Russia, for its part, is building the capacity needed to maintain resilience in the event of further escalation.

What are the limits of escalation in the Baltic Sea region?
How realistic are the risks of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO in the region?
How will institutions of multilateral cooperation develop in the Baltic Sea region?

Participants of the discussion will answer these and other questions.

🎙 Speakers:

🇷🇺 Alexander Grushko, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

🇷🇺 Igor IstominActing Head of the Department of Applied Analysis of International Problems (PAMP); Leading Research Fellow, Center for Advanced American Studies, MGIMO, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia

🇷🇺 Konstantin Khudolei, Head of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University

🇸🇪 Gregory Simons, independent expert (Sweden)

Moderator:

🚩 Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club

https://valdaiclub.com/events/announcements/valdai-club-to-discuss-the-unprecedented-militarisation-of-the-baltic-region/

Working languages: Russian, English.

ℹ️ Information for the media: In order to get accredited for the event, please fill out the form on our website or call +79269307763.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the 
websiteTwitterVKontakteTelegram and Zen.

#EconomicStatecraft #BalticRegion #NATO #militarisation

@valdai_club
TODAY at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion, titled “The Baltic Region: What Will the Unprecedented Militarisation Lead to?”

What are the limits of escalation in the Baltic Sea region?
How realistic are the risks of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO in the region?
How will institutions of multilateral cooperation develop in the Baltic Sea region?

Participants of the discussion will answer these and other questions.

A link to the live broadcast of the discussion will be posted on all online platforms of the Valdai Club: on the websiteTwitterVKontakteTelegram and Zen.

#EconomicStatecraft #BalticRegion #NATO #militarisation

@valdai_club
🇸🇪🇫🇮🇹🇷 The process of Sweden and Finland acceding to NATO membership is not over yet. But recent developments show that a delay is inevitable due to tense relations between Turkey and Sweden.

28 member states of NATO, out of 30, have already approved Sweden and Finland’s accession to the alliance. After Hungary’s ratification, there is a risk that Turkey would be labelled as the sole gatekeeper. Still, it is not likely for Turkey to hurry up ratification. In May, there will be parliamentary and presidential elections, and the issue has already become a feature of domestic politics in Turkey.

Looking at the current equation, there are three scenarios before us:
 
1️⃣ First, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO before the elections. Such a scenario would necessitate a shift in the position of Stockholm, which would include the prevention of PKK protests, measures being taken against provocative demonstrations, and the extradition of terrorism suspects to Turkey.

2️⃣ Second, Turkey may decide to ratify the accession of Finland to NATO and leave Sweden in the waiting room. This possibility has been articulated by Turkish officials, including President Erdoğan himself. Nevertheless, the Finnish officials have declared that they would like to join the alliance together with Sweden. Still, any change in the position of Finland may push this scenario forward. Ratifying Finland’s membership to NATO can help the AK Party explain itself more easily to the alliance rather than being portrayed as a gatekeeper.

3️⃣ The third scenario is leaving the ratification to a date after the elections in May. In this case, there is a risk that Finland and Sweden may not participate in the summit in Vilnius as full members. 

The AK Party has a conservative constituency and the issue has already become a matter of defending the dignity of Islam and Turkey. Thus, the Turkish president will use any shift in the position of Stockholm as leverage in the elections, while the stubbornness of Sweden legitimises Turkey’s position to blockade the expansion.

Looking at this picture, the dynamics of domestic politics in Turkey and Sweden have shaped the future of the North Atlantic Alliance, writes Hasan Selim Özertem, Ankara-based political analyst.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/turkey-s-relations-with-sweden-the-puzzle-of-nato/

#ModernDiplomacy #Turkey #NATO #Sweden #Finland

@valdai_club
⚓️ The Baltic Region in a New Reality: From Cooperation to Conflict

On February 9, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion titled “The Baltic Region: What Will the Unprecedented Militarisation Lead to?” Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, acted as moderator and asked the participants whether cooperation in the region has ceased forever, and whether it is in Russia’s interests to do something to bring it back to the regional agenda.

💬 Alexander Grushko, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, emphasised that the geopolitical ambitions of the West have turned the recently calm and peaceful Baltic region into an arena of military competition. “I think everyone is dreaming now of the times of former boredom,” he said. Giving a brief historical outline of the formation of a security system in the region in the context of the development of arms control, Grushko demonstrated how the destructive activities of NATO led to a turn from building regional security on the principles of restraint to the militarisation of the region and its involvement in the military construction of the North Atlantic Alliance. “This is a new reality that forces us to take appropriate military-technical precautions,” the diplomat admitted.

💬 Igor Istomin, Leading Research Fellow  at the Center for Advanced American Studies, MGIMO, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, called the recent history of the Baltic region an example of the transformation from cooperation with Russia into a new locus of conflict. He noted that countries that until recently sought to act as intermediaries and points of rapprochement are now at the forefront of the anti-Russian agenda. Istomin also pointed to the duality of NATO's policy: on the one hand, the alliance considers a direct clash with Russia a catastrophic scenario, but, on the other hand, the countries of the Baltic region, which have taken a hardline anti-Russian position, constantly provoke Russia and try to induce other members of the bloc to do so, which poses a risk of escalation.

💬 Swedish political scientist Gregory Simons, describing Stockholm’s current course of action, noted that Sweden has moved away from its tradition of neutrality and, as a result, has turned from a subject of international relations into an object. The same, he said, applies to Finland. He emphasised that the Western-centric world order is increasingly filled with ideological, messianic conflicts with the interests of the non-Western world, which is becoming more and more pragmatic. Within the framework of this world order, the United States seeks to make European countries completely dependent on itself. Simons believes that the proxy conflict in Ukraine is also aimed at this.

💬 Konstantin KhudoleiHead of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St Petersburg University, considers the situation in the region to be at its most unfavourable and alarming since the end of World War II. He noted that a serious shift has taken place in the political elites and societies of Finland and Sweden, making the entry of these countries into the North Atlantic Alliance almost inevitable. In his opinion, this will create a situation in the Baltic region similar to the one that developed after the Second World War in the Elbe region, threatening to lead to significant militarization and a general aggravation of tension. In addition, this will strengthen NATO's position in the Arctic.

https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/the-baltic-region-in-a-new-reality-from-cooperation-to-conflict/

#Asia_and_Eurasia #BalticRegion #NATO #militarisation

@valdai_club
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🌎 North Atlantic Treaty, signed on April 4, 1949, established NATO, a US-led military bloc to counter the Soviet Union. Later, there were nine enlargements of the organisation.

Learn more about the history of NATO's expansion and its current state in our video infographic.

#valdai_infogaphics #NATO #expansion

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🌎 For the North Atlantic Alliance, the transition of the conflict between Russia and the West to a new phase with the start of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine created this very seemingly productive chaos.

Prior to this, for decades, NATO was in search of a social function and a corresponding renewal of its collective identity: from a military bloc that existed to contain the USSR to a crisis manager, an anti-terrorist organisation and a security conductor whose focus is already directed to the whole world.

By 2019-2020, as one of the main directions of the bloc’s potential development, the United States began to consider the possibility of using it to counter China in Asia. None of this contributed to centripetal tendencies: the problems of the unity of the allies did not leave the agenda, primarily between the United States and the large EU countries, which are by no means interested in a confrontation with the PRC.

Uncomfortable questions arose in connection with the need to increase defence budgets, transform the NATO military machine in the Asia-Pacific region, and develop European security projects, such as the Permanent Structured Defence Cooperation, the development of the Strategic Compass, and the strengthening of the European Defence Fund.

Russia’s operation in Ukraine seemed to have eliminated all these problems, returning NATO to an obvious and easily conceptualised sense of existence. The Madrid 2022 summit demonstrated a rare unity and transatlantic solidarity. The idea of a common enemy personified by Russia returned to the adopted new strategic concept, designed for eight years, and a decision was made to further strengthen the eastern borders of the alliance. It is also important that Germany, which resisted the increase in defence budgets for a long time, surrendered, Finland and Sweden began preparations for entry, and discussions of the membership of Ukraine and Georgia began again. In other words, all the prerequisites were created for NATO to move up the stairway of chaos.

Under these conditions, the semiotics of the 2023 Vilnius summit are again aimed at demonstrating the unity of the transatlantic allies, writes Julia Melnikova.

https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/nato-summit-in-vilnius-stairways-change-directions/

#EconomicStatecraft #NATO #NATOSummit

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