🇪🇺🇨🇳 European-Chinese relations have been on pause since the end of 2020.
The politicisation of interaction, caused both by objective disproportions in the development of trade and investment partnerships, and by the desire of Brussels to control the relations of member states with China, became the main trend in the development of dialogue in the second half of the 2010s, which led to the transformation of Beijing from a “strategic partner” (this status was received in 2003) to a “strategic partner and systemic rival” of the EU.
Given that the pan-European line is acquiring a distinct protective character, it could be amended by the member states that are the stakeholders of the dialogue, primarily Germany. The government of Olaf Scholz was destined to make unplanned strategic decisions regarding all the main partners outside the EU — the USA, Russia and China. This could have fundamental consequences for European-Chinese relations.
The European-Chinese diagonal in the geometry of world politics is no less important than U.S.-China, Russian-American or Russian-Chinese relations.
Its very presence and possession of independent dynamics in the 2000s was evidence of the polycentrisation of world development, the complication of the structure of international relations. Its absence, accordingly, will once again testify to a return to a binary perception of reality, writes Valdai Club expert Julia Melnikova.
#EconomicStatecraft #Germany #EU #China
@valdai_club
The politicisation of interaction, caused both by objective disproportions in the development of trade and investment partnerships, and by the desire of Brussels to control the relations of member states with China, became the main trend in the development of dialogue in the second half of the 2010s, which led to the transformation of Beijing from a “strategic partner” (this status was received in 2003) to a “strategic partner and systemic rival” of the EU.
Given that the pan-European line is acquiring a distinct protective character, it could be amended by the member states that are the stakeholders of the dialogue, primarily Germany. The government of Olaf Scholz was destined to make unplanned strategic decisions regarding all the main partners outside the EU — the USA, Russia and China. This could have fundamental consequences for European-Chinese relations.
The European-Chinese diagonal in the geometry of world politics is no less important than U.S.-China, Russian-American or Russian-Chinese relations.
Its very presence and possession of independent dynamics in the 2000s was evidence of the polycentrisation of world development, the complication of the structure of international relations. Its absence, accordingly, will once again testify to a return to a binary perception of reality, writes Valdai Club expert Julia Melnikova.
#EconomicStatecraft #Germany #EU #China
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
EU-China Relations and the Future of Multipolarity. What Is Germany’s Choice?
Changes in the position of Germany are largely due to external factors. The growth of the PRC’s role in international affairs in itself stimulates the involvement of geopolitical arguments in the statements on China and its departure from a pragmatic discourse…
🏰💻 The era of technoeconomic blocs is coming, which means that high technology is moving into the geopolitical plane and taking on a strategic dimension.
Protectionism, the pandemic and the sanctions wars that we have been witnessing over the past few years have contributed to the curtailment of globalisation as we knew it.
The international division of labour at the global level is narrowing and is being localised in individual regions.
Technological independence and security are becoming critical for the main global politics players, and the EU is no exception.
To mitigate the geopolitical risks in an increasingly divided world, in which established production and supply chains are collapsing, the EU has resolved to master key core technologies in microelectronics, quantum computing, artificiial intelligence and blockchain, and to find reliable supply chains.
In other words, the EU is seeking ways to resolve the technological sovereignty issue.
📑 Find out more in the Valdai Paper №119, titled “EU Technological Sovereignty and Its Limits”.
#EconomicStatecraft #EU #technology
@valdai_club
Protectionism, the pandemic and the sanctions wars that we have been witnessing over the past few years have contributed to the curtailment of globalisation as we knew it.
The international division of labour at the global level is narrowing and is being localised in individual regions.
Technological independence and security are becoming critical for the main global politics players, and the EU is no exception.
To mitigate the geopolitical risks in an increasingly divided world, in which established production and supply chains are collapsing, the EU has resolved to master key core technologies in microelectronics, quantum computing, artificiial intelligence and blockchain, and to find reliable supply chains.
In other words, the EU is seeking ways to resolve the technological sovereignty issue.
📑 Find out more in the Valdai Paper №119, titled “EU Technological Sovereignty and Its Limits”.
#EconomicStatecraft #EU #technology
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
EU Technological Sovereignty and Its Limits
The era of technoeconomic blocs is coming, which means that high technology is moving into the geopolitical plane and taking on a strategic dimension. Technological independence and security are becoming critical for the main global politics players, and…
🇪🇺⛔️ Sanctions against Moscow are one of the most important priorities for the EU.
A new position has appeared in the bureaucracy of the European Union - the International Special Envoy for the Implementation of EU Sanctions. This post will be held by David O'Sullivan, who previously was the Ambassador of the European Union to the United States.
The primary task in this area will be to persuade as many countries as possible to formally implement the EU sanctions regime.
First of all, we are talking about diplomatic work with countries that have not implemented the sanctions against Russia, which actively continue to do business with Moscow, thereby undermining its isolation.
What does the appointment mean, what will the new official do, and how effective can his activity be for the political goals of the EU? Writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-to-expect-from-the-eu-special-envoy/
#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions #EU
@valdai_club
A new position has appeared in the bureaucracy of the European Union - the International Special Envoy for the Implementation of EU Sanctions. This post will be held by David O'Sullivan, who previously was the Ambassador of the European Union to the United States.
The primary task in this area will be to persuade as many countries as possible to formally implement the EU sanctions regime.
First of all, we are talking about diplomatic work with countries that have not implemented the sanctions against Russia, which actively continue to do business with Moscow, thereby undermining its isolation.
What does the appointment mean, what will the new official do, and how effective can his activity be for the political goals of the EU? Writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/what-to-expect-from-the-eu-special-envoy/
#EconomicStatecraft #sanctions #EU
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
What to Expect from the EU Special Envoy on Sanctions?
It is necessary to abandon the capricious moods regarding the newness of EU policy. While lagging far behind the US in terms of experience and enforcement, the EU will continue to invest in its sanctions policy, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan…
🇷🇺🇪🇺 It is very likely that in order to better understand future interaction with Europe, Russia needs to alter its perspective somewhat.
For more than two decades after the end of the Cold War, Russia's policy towards the European Union proceeded from the possibility that in the new conditions, this association of states would be able to restore the positions lost by its leading participants as a result of the two World Wars.
Russia thought that amid the new state of international politics, where there are no clear dividing lines and the factor of brute force is not decisive, Europe would be able to gradually free itself of complete control by the United States. Moreover, such confidence was supported in every possible way by the actions of the Europeans themselves.
Now we are living in a new international reality. It is impossible yet to say with certainty how devastating the consequences of the military-political clash around Ukraine will be for other European states. But even in the event that the conflict remains within the framework of continuing diplomatic interaction and the parties manage to avoid the most dangerous forms of escalation, thoughts regarding the independence of Western Europe have departed for good, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/how-china-can-help-reimagine-europe/
#Asia_and_Eurasia #EU #Russia #China
@valdai_club
For more than two decades after the end of the Cold War, Russia's policy towards the European Union proceeded from the possibility that in the new conditions, this association of states would be able to restore the positions lost by its leading participants as a result of the two World Wars.
Russia thought that amid the new state of international politics, where there are no clear dividing lines and the factor of brute force is not decisive, Europe would be able to gradually free itself of complete control by the United States. Moreover, such confidence was supported in every possible way by the actions of the Europeans themselves.
Now we are living in a new international reality. It is impossible yet to say with certainty how devastating the consequences of the military-political clash around Ukraine will be for other European states. But even in the event that the conflict remains within the framework of continuing diplomatic interaction and the parties manage to avoid the most dangerous forms of escalation, thoughts regarding the independence of Western Europe have departed for good, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/how-china-can-help-reimagine-europe/
#Asia_and_Eurasia #EU #Russia #China
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
How China Can Help Reimagine Europe
The strengthening of economic ties between Western Europe and the United States will force the EU market to be more open to American competitors, and the general crisis of the “welfare state” will make the labour market more flexible. Under such conditions…
🏰🚫 The European Union seems irretrievably engaged in a showdown with Russia.
After having rolled out nine successive waves of sanctions since February 22, 2022, without counting the sanctions already implemented since 2014, it is preparing for a tenth wave.
The sanctions did cause a drop in trade between Russia and the EU. This drop was estimated, in October 2022 compared to October 2021, at −4.5 billion USD. Moreover, it could be seen that the sanctions had above all led to a reorientation of Russian foreign trade, to the benefit of China and India, but also (and this is less well known) Turkey, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
This is an important point, when you remember that the EU was Russia’s main trading partner, both for imports and for exports. The consequences of Russia’s economic pivot to Asia will be far-reaching.
While the sanctions imposed by the European Union have had little impact on Russia, they have had an obvious impact on the EU itself, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir. What are the real consequences? Does this harsh policy, which can even be described as aggressive, against Russia have a chance of producing effects?
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/will-eu-sanctions-produce-a-winner-and-a-loser/
#Valdai_WorldEconomy #EU #sanctions
@valdai_club
After having rolled out nine successive waves of sanctions since February 22, 2022, without counting the sanctions already implemented since 2014, it is preparing for a tenth wave.
The sanctions did cause a drop in trade between Russia and the EU. This drop was estimated, in October 2022 compared to October 2021, at −4.5 billion USD. Moreover, it could be seen that the sanctions had above all led to a reorientation of Russian foreign trade, to the benefit of China and India, but also (and this is less well known) Turkey, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
This is an important point, when you remember that the EU was Russia’s main trading partner, both for imports and for exports. The consequences of Russia’s economic pivot to Asia will be far-reaching.
While the sanctions imposed by the European Union have had little impact on Russia, they have had an obvious impact on the EU itself, writes Valdai Club expert Jacques Sapir. What are the real consequences? Does this harsh policy, which can even be described as aggressive, against Russia have a chance of producing effects?
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/will-eu-sanctions-produce-a-winner-and-a-loser/
#Valdai_WorldEconomy #EU #sanctions
@valdai_club
Valdai Club
Will EU Sanctions Produce a Winner and a Loser?
The feedback effects of sanctions on European economies have yet to be fully revealed. The sum of these effects, the so-called “boomerang effects”, will indeed only be known within a year. It could turn out to be far greater than the effects on Russia. In…
🇪🇺 Dangerous, short-sighted, immature foreign policy initiatives are now at the centre of the EU agenda.
Many observers are puzzled about what guides the countries of Europe amid the current European security crisis, the largest in 80 years.
🔹 Many of the decisions being made by the EU national governments seem reckless and counterproductive, leading to the threshold of nuclear escalation.
🔹 Europe has neglected its own economic interests and put an end to centuries of economic cooperation with Russia.
🔹 It seems that the political strategy of the EU is dominated not by calculation, but by the slogans that guide the leaders of Britain, Poland and the Baltic countries. The voices of the more prudent countries in Western Europe are muffled.
This trajectory would be rational if the calculation of the collective West to defeat Russia had some chance of success – but since it doesn’t, now many in the EU are perplexed over how to get out of the impasse.
A scenario is likely, in which the United States, seeing that Western Europe will no longer come to its senses after a lethargic sleep and "holidays" from strategic thinking, will bet on developing its presence in Eastern Europe, strengthening Polish plans to create the Intermarium project – to create an antagonist to Russia in the space between the Baltic and Black Seas. This will form a very special strategic situation in Europe, writes Valdai Club programme director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/children-s-crusade-europe-s-strategy
#ModernDiplomacy #EU #Europe
🗣 🗣 🗣
Many observers are puzzled about what guides the countries of Europe amid the current European security crisis, the largest in 80 years.
🔹 Many of the decisions being made by the EU national governments seem reckless and counterproductive, leading to the threshold of nuclear escalation.
🔹 Europe has neglected its own economic interests and put an end to centuries of economic cooperation with Russia.
🔹 It seems that the political strategy of the EU is dominated not by calculation, but by the slogans that guide the leaders of Britain, Poland and the Baltic countries. The voices of the more prudent countries in Western Europe are muffled.
This trajectory would be rational if the calculation of the collective West to defeat Russia had some chance of success – but since it doesn’t, now many in the EU are perplexed over how to get out of the impasse.
A scenario is likely, in which the United States, seeing that Western Europe will no longer come to its senses after a lethargic sleep and "holidays" from strategic thinking, will bet on developing its presence in Eastern Europe, strengthening Polish plans to create the Intermarium project – to create an antagonist to Russia in the space between the Baltic and Black Seas. This will form a very special strategic situation in Europe, writes Valdai Club programme director Andrey Sushentsov.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/children-s-crusade-europe-s-strategy
#ModernDiplomacy #EU #Europe
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Valdai Club
Children's Crusade: Europe's Strategy in the Ukrainian Crisis
Many observers are puzzled about what guides the countries of Europe amid the current European security crisis, the largest in 80 years. Many of the decisions being made by the EU national governments seem reckless and counterproductive, leading to the threshold…
🇪🇺🚫 The European Union has introduced its eleventh package of sanctions against Russia.
The main intrigue of the package was restrictive measures against foreign countries and organisations that interact with Russia. It pertains to cooperation in those areas that are one way or another under EU sanctions.
Obviously, when developing new mechanisms, the EU was guided by the rich experience of the United States. Americans have been using three tools for a long time – secondary sanctions, the expansion of export restrictions, and criminal and administrative prosecutions. In the first case, the US Treasury simply imposes blocking sanctions on individuals and entities that are suspected of circumventing sanctions. Such measures were widely used against Russian counterparties abroad under all large packages of US sanctions in 2023.
The question is: how exactly will the European Union achieve the promotion of its export control rules and other sanctions against Russia abroad?
The course towards the economic blockade of Russia continues. Russia itself continues its policy of adapting to new restrictive measures, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/eleventh-package-of-eu-sanctions-what-s-new/
#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions
🗣 🗣 🗣
The main intrigue of the package was restrictive measures against foreign countries and organisations that interact with Russia. It pertains to cooperation in those areas that are one way or another under EU sanctions.
Obviously, when developing new mechanisms, the EU was guided by the rich experience of the United States. Americans have been using three tools for a long time – secondary sanctions, the expansion of export restrictions, and criminal and administrative prosecutions. In the first case, the US Treasury simply imposes blocking sanctions on individuals and entities that are suspected of circumventing sanctions. Such measures were widely used against Russian counterparties abroad under all large packages of US sanctions in 2023.
The question is: how exactly will the European Union achieve the promotion of its export control rules and other sanctions against Russia abroad?
The course towards the economic blockade of Russia continues. Russia itself continues its policy of adapting to new restrictive measures, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/eleventh-package-of-eu-sanctions-what-s-new/
#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions
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Valdai Club
Eleventh Package of EU Sanctions. What’s New?
The course towards the economic blockade of Russia continues. Russia itself continues its policy of adapting to new restrictive measures, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
🧳 Will customs in EU countries undress Russian citizens?
The EU sanctions policy against Russia includes a wide range of measures. These include blocking financial sanctions, sectoral restrictions, transport and visa bans, export controls on a wide range of goods, as well as a ban on the import of a number of goods from Russia. The latter measure can be described as import controls. Its goal is to deprive Moscow of income from the sale of these goods on the markets of EU member countries. Brussels has banned the import of a number of strategic raw materials from Russia, including oil, petroleum products, coal, ferrous metallurgy products, gold, and others.
At the same time, a number of other items were also banned. This norm is postulated in Art. 3i of Council Regulation 833/2014. The direct or indirect import of certain goods from Russia to the EU is prohibited, as well as the related provision of intermediary and financial services. Appendix XXI reveals the list of titles. It is very diverse: you can find products ranging from caviar to cement, chemical products, fertilizers, soap, rubber, paper, pumps, refrigerators, bearings, engines, telephones, cars, cameras and much more. Obviously, shipments of such goods had no chance of passing customs.
But what should be done if a Russian citizen imports this or that product for personal use? The most obvious example is entering the EU in a private car.
Russian tourists are distinguished by courage — they often venture to more extreme jurisdictions, and being deprived of toilet paper or a camera might seem trifling. But if the practice becomes widespread, another nail will be driven into the coffin of human ties between Russia and the EU, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/will-customs-in-eu-countries-undress-russians/
#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions
🗣 🗣 🗣
The EU sanctions policy against Russia includes a wide range of measures. These include blocking financial sanctions, sectoral restrictions, transport and visa bans, export controls on a wide range of goods, as well as a ban on the import of a number of goods from Russia. The latter measure can be described as import controls. Its goal is to deprive Moscow of income from the sale of these goods on the markets of EU member countries. Brussels has banned the import of a number of strategic raw materials from Russia, including oil, petroleum products, coal, ferrous metallurgy products, gold, and others.
At the same time, a number of other items were also banned. This norm is postulated in Art. 3i of Council Regulation 833/2014. The direct or indirect import of certain goods from Russia to the EU is prohibited, as well as the related provision of intermediary and financial services. Appendix XXI reveals the list of titles. It is very diverse: you can find products ranging from caviar to cement, chemical products, fertilizers, soap, rubber, paper, pumps, refrigerators, bearings, engines, telephones, cars, cameras and much more. Obviously, shipments of such goods had no chance of passing customs.
But what should be done if a Russian citizen imports this or that product for personal use? The most obvious example is entering the EU in a private car.
Russian tourists are distinguished by courage — they often venture to more extreme jurisdictions, and being deprived of toilet paper or a camera might seem trifling. But if the practice becomes widespread, another nail will be driven into the coffin of human ties between Russia and the EU, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/will-customs-in-eu-countries-undress-russians/
#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions
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Valdai Club
Will Customs in EU Countries Undress Russian Citizens?
Russian tourists are distinguished by courage — they often venture to more extreme jurisdictions, and being deprived of toilet paper or a camera might seem trifling. But if the practice becomes widespread, another nail will be driven into the coffin of human…
🇪🇺 The economic consequences of sanctions for Europe are already far-reaching.
🔹 EU countries are not able to compensate for the economic losses caused by sanctions against the Russian Federation.
🔹 First of all, this concerns the energy and raw materials sectors. The huge increase in prices for these resources is causing serious damage to the industry. European industry is increasingly falling behind global competition.
🔹 With the introduction of sanctions against Russia, the process of deindustrialisation of Europe is accelerating.
🔹 This combination of inflation and recession is leading to an economic crisis in Europe that will continue for many years.
This will result in a permanent loss of wealth for Western societies, writes Ulrike Reisner, freelance political analyst, lecturer & journalist, based in Vienna, Austria, PICREADI expert.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/losses-due-to-sanctions-grow-in-the-west/
#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions
🗣 🗣 🗣
🔹 EU countries are not able to compensate for the economic losses caused by sanctions against the Russian Federation.
🔹 First of all, this concerns the energy and raw materials sectors. The huge increase in prices for these resources is causing serious damage to the industry. European industry is increasingly falling behind global competition.
🔹 With the introduction of sanctions against Russia, the process of deindustrialisation of Europe is accelerating.
🔹 This combination of inflation and recession is leading to an economic crisis in Europe that will continue for many years.
This will result in a permanent loss of wealth for Western societies, writes Ulrike Reisner, freelance political analyst, lecturer & journalist, based in Vienna, Austria, PICREADI expert.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/losses-due-to-sanctions-grow-in-the-west/
#EconomicStatecraft #EU #sanctions
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Valdai Club
Losses Due to Sanctions Grow in the West
The EU countries are not able to compensate for the economic losses caused by the sanctions against the Russian Federation. The process of deindustrialisation in Europe continues. This is resulting in a permanent loss of wealth for Western societies, writes…
🌎🌏 Recent processes, especially the crisis in the Middle East, may open a new chapter in how most countries around the world perceive the policies of the United States and Europe, as well as make it impossible to return to the previous world order.
Israel's confrontational policy does not pose a direct threat to Russia, the United States or China, the main powers of the modern world, and they are not going to cross their swords over what the Middle East region should look like after the events of this fall. But it would be short-sighted to underestimate the detrimental effect that some features of the position chosen by the West have had on the credibility of the United States and its allies among the world community.
The West is erasing its own previous achievements. A huge part of the world's population has clearly become convinced of the boundless cynicism and duplicity of the political elites, brought to the top of the power hierarchy by the vaunted democratic system.
Due to their obsession with the current election cycle and their own career ambitions, the current leaders of the West aren’t hesitating to jettison the enormous achievements of past years in building trust in international relations and a balance of interests at the global level, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/how-the-world-majority-sees-the-consequences/
#Asia_and_Eurasia #UnitedStates #EU #WorldMajority
🗣 🗣 🗣
Israel's confrontational policy does not pose a direct threat to Russia, the United States or China, the main powers of the modern world, and they are not going to cross their swords over what the Middle East region should look like after the events of this fall. But it would be short-sighted to underestimate the detrimental effect that some features of the position chosen by the West have had on the credibility of the United States and its allies among the world community.
The West is erasing its own previous achievements. A huge part of the world's population has clearly become convinced of the boundless cynicism and duplicity of the political elites, brought to the top of the power hierarchy by the vaunted democratic system.
Due to their obsession with the current election cycle and their own career ambitions, the current leaders of the West aren’t hesitating to jettison the enormous achievements of past years in building trust in international relations and a balance of interests at the global level, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/how-the-world-majority-sees-the-consequences/
#Asia_and_Eurasia #UnitedStates #EU #WorldMajority
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Valdai Club
How the World Majority Sees the Consequences of the Crisis in the Middle East
The experience of the twentieth century, acquired through incredible sacrifices and exhausting competition, was carelessly swept aside within two decades of the early 21st century. Such a mediocre squandering of previous achievements of international politics…