Saturday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. What do consultants get paid for?2. Ugly architecture creates coalitions against development.3. London is (modestly) degentrifying.4. Is the “no forward guidance” approach failing? (FT)5. Chinese interview with Christopher Nolan.6. “social media use and school grades are unrelated for adolescents…meta-analytic evidence is not in support of dramatic claims relating social media use to mischief.” Link here.The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4vXKCGx
Tyler Cowen
1. What do consultants get paid for?2. Ugly architecture creates coalitions against development.3. London is (modestly) degentrifying.4. Is the “no forward guidance” approach failing? (FT)5. Chinese interview with Christopher Nolan.6. “social media use and school grades are unrelated for adolescents…meta-analytic evidence is not in support of dramatic claims relating social media use to mischief.” Link here.The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4vXKCGx
Rothko show in Florence
Tyler Cowen
In Museo San Marco there is an ancillary exhibit, placing some smaller, lighter colored Rothkos next to their Fra Angelico frescoes. Those rooms bowled me over, as for one thing they show how much Rothko was a religious painter at heart.I also was struck by the high proportion of Chinese visitors at this show, even though they are not especially numerous in Florence right now.The main Rothko show, at Palazzo Strozzi, had an opening room showing Rothkos tied to Renaissance (!) art, mostly with works from early Rothko. The rest of the exhibit had perfect lighting and was the best Rothko display I have seen.Ken Griffin has very good taste in Rothko. One of his works is here.Visiting Florence in August is less unbearable than I was expecting. So many other places have become crowded that the situation here does not phase me. Plus the heat is keeping many away? At dinnertime, there is no crush to get into the restaurants.Moving on shortly, just here for one day!The post Rothko show in Florence appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe Rug Belt Atlas and QuizMy excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-DixonMarkets in everything?
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4yRQtzz
Tyler Cowen
In Museo San Marco there is an ancillary exhibit, placing some smaller, lighter colored Rothkos next to their Fra Angelico frescoes. Those rooms bowled me over, as for one thing they show how much Rothko was a religious painter at heart.I also was struck by the high proportion of Chinese visitors at this show, even though they are not especially numerous in Florence right now.The main Rothko show, at Palazzo Strozzi, had an opening room showing Rothkos tied to Renaissance (!) art, mostly with works from early Rothko. The rest of the exhibit had perfect lighting and was the best Rothko display I have seen.Ken Griffin has very good taste in Rothko. One of his works is here.Visiting Florence in August is less unbearable than I was expecting. So many other places have become crowded that the situation here does not phase me. Plus the heat is keeping many away? At dinnertime, there is no crush to get into the restaurants.Moving on shortly, just here for one day!The post Rothko show in Florence appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe Rug Belt Atlas and QuizMy excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-DixonMarkets in everything?
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4yRQtzz
Mexico (Taiwan) fact of the day
Tyler Cowen
Mexico has quietly become a cornerstone of the AI boom, providing 40 per cent of US imports this year of the computer servers that are widely used in the data centres powering artificial intelligence.Taiwanese manufacturers are rapidly expanding factories in Mexico to assemble servers, which are now the country’s top US export, overtaking autos that dominated its trade for decades.Mexico is the second-largest provider of enterprise servers to the US so far this year, with sales reaching $46.9bn, behind Taiwan, which sold $53.5bn, though Mexico became the largest on a monthly basis in May.The phenomenon is helping prop up Mexico’s limp economy, pushing the country’s exports to record levels. Servers and related hardware made up almost one-fifth of the $317bn of goods Mexico exported between January and May, more than double the same period a year earlier. Taiwan, in turn, is now Mexico’s third-largest trading partner, up from eighth place in 2022. Taiwanese companies have spent more than $1.6bn since 2020 on Mexican factories that offer geographic proximity and tariff-free access to US tech giants spending hundreds of billions on data centres.“Mexico is of tremendous importance to the way this new AI-powered economy is working,” said Jesse Rogers, head of Latin America economics at Moody’s Analytics. “It is really a new frontier of collaboration and even dependency on the Mexican economy when it comes to AI servers.”Here is more from Christine Murray and Alan Smith at the FT.The post Mexico (Taiwan) fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMore math breakthroughs from GPT modelsThe wisdom of Eli DouradoReforms to the PhD?
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/KqvGdRJ
Tyler Cowen
Mexico has quietly become a cornerstone of the AI boom, providing 40 per cent of US imports this year of the computer servers that are widely used in the data centres powering artificial intelligence.Taiwanese manufacturers are rapidly expanding factories in Mexico to assemble servers, which are now the country’s top US export, overtaking autos that dominated its trade for decades.Mexico is the second-largest provider of enterprise servers to the US so far this year, with sales reaching $46.9bn, behind Taiwan, which sold $53.5bn, though Mexico became the largest on a monthly basis in May.The phenomenon is helping prop up Mexico’s limp economy, pushing the country’s exports to record levels. Servers and related hardware made up almost one-fifth of the $317bn of goods Mexico exported between January and May, more than double the same period a year earlier. Taiwan, in turn, is now Mexico’s third-largest trading partner, up from eighth place in 2022. Taiwanese companies have spent more than $1.6bn since 2020 on Mexican factories that offer geographic proximity and tariff-free access to US tech giants spending hundreds of billions on data centres.“Mexico is of tremendous importance to the way this new AI-powered economy is working,” said Jesse Rogers, head of Latin America economics at Moody’s Analytics. “It is really a new frontier of collaboration and even dependency on the Mexican economy when it comes to AI servers.”Here is more from Christine Murray and Alan Smith at the FT.The post Mexico (Taiwan) fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMore math breakthroughs from GPT modelsThe wisdom of Eli DouradoReforms to the PhD?
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/KqvGdRJ
Taiwan fact of the day
Tyler Cowen
[Annualized] 14% GDP growth in the first half of 2026The post Taiwan fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMexico (Taiwan) fact of the dayMore math breakthroughs from GPT modelsImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/27Mw5rp
Tyler Cowen
[Annualized] 14% GDP growth in the first half of 2026The post Taiwan fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMexico (Taiwan) fact of the dayMore math breakthroughs from GPT modelsImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/27Mw5rp
On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result
Tyler Cowen
Here is criticism from Revana Sharffuddin. Here is criticism from JFV.The post On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesTaiwan fact of the dayImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries*Redefining Global Health in the 21st Century*
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/JozO2tL
Tyler Cowen
Here is criticism from Revana Sharffuddin. Here is criticism from JFV.The post On the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesTaiwan fact of the dayImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries*Redefining Global Health in the 21st Century*
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/JozO2tL
Sunday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. The inverseminar, someone else presents your paper.2. The rise of million-dollar companies with just one employee (WSJ).3. The political party itself is a big driver of polarization.4. Gita Gopinath is making sense.5. GPT Pro (not Astra) on what “Astra” means.6. David Perell art history game.7. New model of “Racing to Ruin.”The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments#3 haven't read the paper, but just the title seems implausible ... by fred#3: The abstract doesn't say that much, but if there's one ... by Action Figure
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/p6H3PJx
Tyler Cowen
1. The inverseminar, someone else presents your paper.2. The rise of million-dollar companies with just one employee (WSJ).3. The political party itself is a big driver of polarization.4. Gita Gopinath is making sense.5. GPT Pro (not Astra) on what “Astra” means.6. David Perell art history game.7. New model of “Racing to Ruin.”The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments#3 haven't read the paper, but just the title seems implausible ... by fred#3: The abstract doesn't say that much, but if there's one ... by Action Figure
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/p6H3PJx
*Rome’s Age of Revolution*
Tyler Cowen
The author is Tim Whitmarsh and the subtitle is Augustus, Empire and the Making of Christianity. This is the most important book on the history of Christianity I have read in a long time, and it is also an important work in Roman history. Yet also fun and extremely readable. Excerpt:The story I have told so far has emphasised the fit between Christianity and the Greek world of the early Roman Empire; I have given relatively little space to conflict. That has been quite deliberate. One of the commonest misconceptions about the early Roman Empire is that it was a time of ceaseless and inevitable suppression of virtuous Christians by a brutal governmental machine. This is a myth that has roots in antiquity itself, and has been pumped systematically into western popular culture since the nineteenth centuury. It is a remarkably durable myth, because it is both emotionally seductive and ideologically powerful. The idea that virtuous Christians were engaged in endless conflict with the Roman state makes for great narrative. But the reality is more banal: most Christians were fully integrated into Roman society, and no more or less harassed than anyone else…My argument has been, rather, that Christianity could not have come into being in anything like the form we know it without the revolutionary impact of Augustus’ political reforms. It was this seismic change that fundamentally transformed Mediterranean thought…The most dramatic effect of the Augustan swirl was Christianity itself: a breakaway Judaean sect led by brilliant entrepreneurs who understood the opportunities offered by the new political dispensation, and rapidly reshaped their ideas to suit new audiences.Definitely recommended, and not only to Christians and Romans.The post *Rome’s Age of Revolution* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesWhat should I ask Jared Diamond?*Liberal Worlds: James Bryce and the Democratic Intellect*Odysseus notes
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/khfD4V8
Tyler Cowen
The author is Tim Whitmarsh and the subtitle is Augustus, Empire and the Making of Christianity. This is the most important book on the history of Christianity I have read in a long time, and it is also an important work in Roman history. Yet also fun and extremely readable. Excerpt:The story I have told so far has emphasised the fit between Christianity and the Greek world of the early Roman Empire; I have given relatively little space to conflict. That has been quite deliberate. One of the commonest misconceptions about the early Roman Empire is that it was a time of ceaseless and inevitable suppression of virtuous Christians by a brutal governmental machine. This is a myth that has roots in antiquity itself, and has been pumped systematically into western popular culture since the nineteenth centuury. It is a remarkably durable myth, because it is both emotionally seductive and ideologically powerful. The idea that virtuous Christians were engaged in endless conflict with the Roman state makes for great narrative. But the reality is more banal: most Christians were fully integrated into Roman society, and no more or less harassed than anyone else…My argument has been, rather, that Christianity could not have come into being in anything like the form we know it without the revolutionary impact of Augustus’ political reforms. It was this seismic change that fundamentally transformed Mediterranean thought…The most dramatic effect of the Augustan swirl was Christianity itself: a breakaway Judaean sect led by brilliant entrepreneurs who understood the opportunities offered by the new political dispensation, and rapidly reshaped their ideas to suit new audiences.Definitely recommended, and not only to Christians and Romans.The post *Rome’s Age of Revolution* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesWhat should I ask Jared Diamond?*Liberal Worlds: James Bryce and the Democratic Intellect*Odysseus notes
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/khfD4V8
On infinite ethics
Tyler Cowen
Infinite numbers have long troubled utilitarian ethicists: if the universe is boundless, then there is infinite positive utility and infinite negative utility, and we can’t even define our current state, let alone affect it. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord proposes a solution: use hyperreal numbers, a mathematical construct in which infinite sums behave more like finite ones (for example, the sum of infinitely many twos is twice as big as the sum of infinitely many ones). As with so many philosophical ideas, this solves some existing problems while creating some new ones (pinpointing some hyperreals requires choosing something called an “ultrafilter”, but this choice is underdetermined). Still, Elias Schmied calls this a real philosophical advance, of the sort which comes along only rarely and makes genuine headway into a previously-hopeless-seeming problem. I’m just surprised there’s a way of thinking about infinities under which they behave logically. Why didn’t we start with this one, instead of being told that infinity + infinity = infinity and we should just accept it? Claude tries to answer my questions.That is from Scott Alexander (many more links at the link, many on AI safety).The post On infinite ethics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesCould our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem?Odysseus notesThe Decision, the sequel
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/p94EtIM
Tyler Cowen
Infinite numbers have long troubled utilitarian ethicists: if the universe is boundless, then there is infinite positive utility and infinite negative utility, and we can’t even define our current state, let alone affect it. Oxford philosopher Toby Ord proposes a solution: use hyperreal numbers, a mathematical construct in which infinite sums behave more like finite ones (for example, the sum of infinitely many twos is twice as big as the sum of infinitely many ones). As with so many philosophical ideas, this solves some existing problems while creating some new ones (pinpointing some hyperreals requires choosing something called an “ultrafilter”, but this choice is underdetermined). Still, Elias Schmied calls this a real philosophical advance, of the sort which comes along only rarely and makes genuine headway into a previously-hopeless-seeming problem. I’m just surprised there’s a way of thinking about infinities under which they behave logically. Why didn’t we start with this one, instead of being told that infinity + infinity = infinity and we should just accept it? Claude tries to answer my questions.That is from Scott Alexander (many more links at the link, many on AI safety).The post On infinite ethics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesCould our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem?Odysseus notesThe Decision, the sequel
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/p94EtIM
What should I ask Nick Bostrom?
Tyler Cowen
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him. So what should I ask?If you need them, here are various Bostrom links.The post What should I ask Nick Bostrom? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesOn infinite ethicsCould our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem?Odysseus notes
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/qA2oLfF
Tyler Cowen
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him. So what should I ask?If you need them, here are various Bostrom links.The post What should I ask Nick Bostrom? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesOn infinite ethicsCould our preoccupation with mental health be part of the problem?Odysseus notes
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/qA2oLfF
Monday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. A new simulation argument?2. PC on aesthetics.3. An interview with Yiyang Zhuge.4. The truth and aesthetics of going to church?5. Some forms of math cope? And a different view.6. At the demolition derby.The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments#4 I recommend reading Graham Greene's short story “A Visit ... by ROBERTO
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/JS6vZIG
Tyler Cowen
1. A new simulation argument?2. PC on aesthetics.3. An interview with Yiyang Zhuge.4. The truth and aesthetics of going to church?5. Some forms of math cope? And a different view.6. At the demolition derby.The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments#4 I recommend reading Graham Greene's short story “A Visit ... by ROBERTO
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/JS6vZIG
How does the market regard stablecoins?
Tyler Cowen
We study the demand for safety and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem. We do so under a framework in which a representative investor allocates liquidity across stablecoin deposits in lending pools and traditional safe assets (e.g., MMF shares). Our model delivers three main predictions: (i) the stablecoin deposit premium co-moves with the Treasury premium when investors value the safety and liquidity services of stablecoins; (ii) increases in Treasury supply reduce the stablecoin deposit premium; and (iii) drops in the perceived safety and liquidity of stablecoin deposits (e.g., due to de-pegs or hacker attacks) reduce their premium. Using granular data from hundreds of DeFi pools spanning multiple protocols, tokens, and blockchains, we find evidence supporting these predictions. Investors treat stablecoin deposits as money-like instruments that are borderless and permissionless, yet as fragile as other forms of privately produced safe assets.That is from a new NBER working paper by Murillo Campello, Angela Gallo, Lira Mota & Tammaro Terracciano.The post How does the market regard stablecoins? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/Yi3Zyom
Tyler Cowen
We study the demand for safety and liquidity in the crypto ecosystem. We do so under a framework in which a representative investor allocates liquidity across stablecoin deposits in lending pools and traditional safe assets (e.g., MMF shares). Our model delivers three main predictions: (i) the stablecoin deposit premium co-moves with the Treasury premium when investors value the safety and liquidity services of stablecoins; (ii) increases in Treasury supply reduce the stablecoin deposit premium; and (iii) drops in the perceived safety and liquidity of stablecoin deposits (e.g., due to de-pegs or hacker attacks) reduce their premium. Using granular data from hundreds of DeFi pools spanning multiple protocols, tokens, and blockchains, we find evidence supporting these predictions. Investors treat stablecoin deposits as money-like instruments that are borderless and permissionless, yet as fragile as other forms of privately produced safe assets.That is from a new NBER working paper by Murillo Campello, Angela Gallo, Lira Mota & Tammaro Terracciano.The post How does the market regard stablecoins? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/Yi3Zyom
Emergent Ventures winners, 57th cohort
Tyler Cowen
Oisin O’Gorman, 15, Dublin, misinformation and fakes.Karsen Lee Wahal, Stanford, is AI killing the web?, and measuring media slant.Davy Deng, with Claire Wang (previous winner), whole brain emulation, MIT.Enej Grmek, 16, Ljubljana, privacy.Vladimir Shmelev, Ukraine, Ukrainian children for relief trips to Montenegro.Nik Verma, Chicago, a legal framework for AI agents.Emirhan Demir and Çınar Yıldırım, Istanbul area, 19, protection against AI agents.Midhat Doruk, 14, Ankara, longevity, biology, and skin cosmetics.Burak Yilmaz, 17, Diyarbarkir, Turkey, browser-native authentication.Lloyd Strickland, London, to publish the remaining Leibniz papers, including on computation.Abdul Quyum, 15, Perth, organizing information and data.Catharine Young, podcast on women in science, science communication tranche, Cambridge/DC.The post Emergent Ventures winners, 57th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesEmergent Ventures India, 18th cohortAn experiment for our schoolsReforms to the PhD?
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/pltEk2G
Tyler Cowen
Oisin O’Gorman, 15, Dublin, misinformation and fakes.Karsen Lee Wahal, Stanford, is AI killing the web?, and measuring media slant.Davy Deng, with Claire Wang (previous winner), whole brain emulation, MIT.Enej Grmek, 16, Ljubljana, privacy.Vladimir Shmelev, Ukraine, Ukrainian children for relief trips to Montenegro.Nik Verma, Chicago, a legal framework for AI agents.Emirhan Demir and Çınar Yıldırım, Istanbul area, 19, protection against AI agents.Midhat Doruk, 14, Ankara, longevity, biology, and skin cosmetics.Burak Yilmaz, 17, Diyarbarkir, Turkey, browser-native authentication.Lloyd Strickland, London, to publish the remaining Leibniz papers, including on computation.Abdul Quyum, 15, Perth, organizing information and data.Catharine Young, podcast on women in science, science communication tranche, Cambridge/DC.The post Emergent Ventures winners, 57th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesEmergent Ventures India, 18th cohortAn experiment for our schoolsReforms to the PhD?
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/pltEk2G
The economics of H-1B immigration
Tyler Cowen
We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.That is from a new NBER working paper by Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Ahmet Gulek & Jens Hainmueller.The post The economics of H-1B immigration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD CountriesThe Apples and Oranges TribunalOn the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/qB8IQoW
Tyler Cowen
We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.That is from a new NBER working paper by Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Ahmet Gulek & Jens Hainmueller.The post The economics of H-1B immigration appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD CountriesThe Apples and Oranges TribunalOn the Acemoglu-Autor et.al. fertility result
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/qB8IQoW
Tuesday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. Selecting innovation funding mechanisms.2. Helen Andrews on race.3. Famous radio station goes all-automated.4. On Stefanie Stantcheva.5. ChinaTalk submission hiring contest.6. New Hamilton faculty at University of Florida, 21 of them.7. Battery in your backyard? (WSJ)8. How Americans are talking to Claude about politics.The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments2??? Am I missing something? by DP
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/bAQ3ezc
Tyler Cowen
1. Selecting innovation funding mechanisms.2. Helen Andrews on race.3. Famous radio station goes all-automated.4. On Stefanie Stantcheva.5. ChinaTalk submission hiring contest.6. New Hamilton faculty at University of Florida, 21 of them.7. Battery in your backyard? (WSJ)8. How Americans are talking to Claude about politics.The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments2??? Am I missing something? by DP
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/bAQ3ezc
Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform
Tyler Cowen
We estimate the economic value of zoning reform in São Paulo, which altered maximum permitted construction along transportation corridors. Developers increased filings for multifamily construction in blocks affected by the reform, leading to more housing supply and lower housing prices in neighborhoods that allow more densification. Our equilibrium model of housing markets estimates an aggregate 1.6 percent increase in housing stock and a 0.4 percent reduction in prices, resulting in large housing wealth transfers from current to future homeowners. The reform produced welfare gains of 0.65 percent of city GDP, mostly due to developer profits and consumer gains from the newly built environment.That is from the AEA policy journal, by Santosh Anagol, Fernando Ferreira, and Jonah Rexer.The post Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe economics of H-1B immigrationImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD CountriesThe Apples and Oranges Tribunal
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/TzFv7Js
Tyler Cowen
We estimate the economic value of zoning reform in São Paulo, which altered maximum permitted construction along transportation corridors. Developers increased filings for multifamily construction in blocks affected by the reform, leading to more housing supply and lower housing prices in neighborhoods that allow more densification. Our equilibrium model of housing markets estimates an aggregate 1.6 percent increase in housing stock and a 0.4 percent reduction in prices, resulting in large housing wealth transfers from current to future homeowners. The reform produced welfare gains of 0.65 percent of city GDP, mostly due to developer profits and consumer gains from the newly built environment.That is from the AEA policy journal, by Santosh Anagol, Fernando Ferreira, and Jonah Rexer.The post Estimating the Economic Value of Zoning Reform appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe economics of H-1B immigrationImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD CountriesThe Apples and Oranges Tribunal
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/TzFv7Js
The Value of Behavioral Policies
Tyler Cowen
Behavioral interventions have become central to modern public policy, but their empirical promise remains contested because estimated treatment effects often appear small. We argue that a policy response is economically meaningful only relative to the response generated by alternative policies. We assemble more than 1,200 estimates from over 600 studies comparing “nudges” and traditional price interventions in the markets for cigarettes, alcohol, influenza vaccination, electricity, and residential water. Translating nudge effects into equivalent price changes, we find that behavioral interventions often correspond to enormous fiscal interventions, from an 11% tax on electricity to a 100% subsidy on influenza vaccinations. Nudges are also more cost-effective than price instruments in all markets, but cost-effectiveness does not predict the welfare ranking of policies. Using a behavioral extension of the Marginal Value of Public Funds, we show that nudges have high welfare returns at the margin, while price instruments often generate larger total surplus at scale.That is from a new NBER working paper by John A. List, Matthias Rodemeier, Sutanuka Roy & Gregory K. Sun.The post The Value of Behavioral Policies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesEstimating the Economic Value of Zoning ReformThe economics of H-1B immigrationImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/zrJ4kj0
Tyler Cowen
Behavioral interventions have become central to modern public policy, but their empirical promise remains contested because estimated treatment effects often appear small. We argue that a policy response is economically meaningful only relative to the response generated by alternative policies. We assemble more than 1,200 estimates from over 600 studies comparing “nudges” and traditional price interventions in the markets for cigarettes, alcohol, influenza vaccination, electricity, and residential water. Translating nudge effects into equivalent price changes, we find that behavioral interventions often correspond to enormous fiscal interventions, from an 11% tax on electricity to a 100% subsidy on influenza vaccinations. Nudges are also more cost-effective than price instruments in all markets, but cost-effectiveness does not predict the welfare ranking of policies. Using a behavioral extension of the Marginal Value of Public Funds, we show that nudges have high welfare returns at the margin, while price instruments often generate larger total surplus at scale.That is from a new NBER working paper by John A. List, Matthias Rodemeier, Sutanuka Roy & Gregory K. Sun.The post The Value of Behavioral Policies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesEstimating the Economic Value of Zoning ReformThe economics of H-1B immigrationImmigration and Macroeconomic Outcomes in OECD Countries
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/zrJ4kj0
Victor Niederhoffer, RIP
Tyler Cowen
In addition to his well-known public roles, he worked very hard to help and befriend me when I was younger. Here are the Google searches for Victor. Less well known about Victor is that he had one of the world’s best collections of private letters. He also once gave me a very nice small painting by Jack Savitzky.The post Victor Niederhoffer, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/untmqiS
Tyler Cowen
In addition to his well-known public roles, he worked very hard to help and befriend me when I was younger. Here are the Google searches for Victor. Less well known about Victor is that he had one of the world’s best collections of private letters. He also once gave me a very nice small painting by Jack Savitzky.The post Victor Niederhoffer, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/untmqiS
Is this why China finds it so hard to inflate producer prices?
Tyler Cowen
This paper investigates why China’s recurrent credit expansions have coincided with persistently weak inflation. We argue that this pattern reflects the country’s production-oriented monetary regime. At the aggregate level, faster monetary-financial expansion temporarily raises PPI inflation but depresses it over longer horizons. At the sectoral level, liability growth among listed industrial firms is followed by weaker producer prices, lower profitability, higher leverage, rising inventories, and reduced capacity utilization. We also find asymmetric supply-chain transmission: downstream liability growth raises upstream PPI inflation, while upstream liability growth does not generate a corresponding downstream price response. These findings indicate that credit expansion in China tends to sustain production and balance sheets rather than stimulate final demand. As a result, monetary policy operates less as a conventional tool for demand management and durable reflation, and more as a mechanism for preserving production capacity and supporting growth.That is from a new paper by Jeffery (Jinfan) Chang & Wei Xiong. I have to say I understand the result but not exactly the mechanism. I am reminded of Milton Friedman’s dictum not to focus too much on the first-order effects of an increase in money supply.The post Is this why China finds it so hard to inflate producer prices? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe Value of Behavioral PoliciesEstimating the Economic Value of Zoning ReformThe economics of H-1B immigration
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/ami2Ep3
Tyler Cowen
This paper investigates why China’s recurrent credit expansions have coincided with persistently weak inflation. We argue that this pattern reflects the country’s production-oriented monetary regime. At the aggregate level, faster monetary-financial expansion temporarily raises PPI inflation but depresses it over longer horizons. At the sectoral level, liability growth among listed industrial firms is followed by weaker producer prices, lower profitability, higher leverage, rising inventories, and reduced capacity utilization. We also find asymmetric supply-chain transmission: downstream liability growth raises upstream PPI inflation, while upstream liability growth does not generate a corresponding downstream price response. These findings indicate that credit expansion in China tends to sustain production and balance sheets rather than stimulate final demand. As a result, monetary policy operates less as a conventional tool for demand management and durable reflation, and more as a mechanism for preserving production capacity and supporting growth.That is from a new paper by Jeffery (Jinfan) Chang & Wei Xiong. I have to say I understand the result but not exactly the mechanism. I am reminded of Milton Friedman’s dictum not to focus too much on the first-order effects of an increase in money supply.The post Is this why China finds it so hard to inflate producer prices? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe Value of Behavioral PoliciesEstimating the Economic Value of Zoning ReformThe economics of H-1B immigration
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/ami2Ep3
Dominant Assurance Contract aka Refund Bonus Explainer
Alex Tabarrok
I created the dominant assurance contract aka the refund bonus mechanism in 1998–it’s a mechanism capable of producing some types of public goods privately–in recent years working with Tim Cason and Robertas Zubrickas I’ve put refund bonuses to the test in lab experiments and they work! I’ve written an accessible Refund Bonus Explainer that covers this body of work. Here’s one bit:The dike is a public good. Once it stands, it protects everyone nearby, and a neighbor who contributed nothing cannot easily be excluded. That property is what makes it hard to finance.Paul Samuelson gave this category its modern formulation in 1954, and he drew a pessimistic conclusion from it. Each person does better by understating what the good is worth to him, so it is, in Samuelson’s words, “in the selfish interest of each person to give false signals, to pretend to have less interest in a given collective consumption activity than he really has.” From this he concluded that “no decentralized pricing system can serve to determine optimally these levels of collective consumption.” Public goods, on this view, are what governments are for. Refund bonuses are a challenge to that conclusion.Read the whole thing and here is my Rent Control Explainer.The post Dominant Assurance Contract aka Refund Bonus Explainer appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/zTopqDF
Alex Tabarrok
I created the dominant assurance contract aka the refund bonus mechanism in 1998–it’s a mechanism capable of producing some types of public goods privately–in recent years working with Tim Cason and Robertas Zubrickas I’ve put refund bonuses to the test in lab experiments and they work! I’ve written an accessible Refund Bonus Explainer that covers this body of work. Here’s one bit:The dike is a public good. Once it stands, it protects everyone nearby, and a neighbor who contributed nothing cannot easily be excluded. That property is what makes it hard to finance.Paul Samuelson gave this category its modern formulation in 1954, and he drew a pessimistic conclusion from it. Each person does better by understating what the good is worth to him, so it is, in Samuelson’s words, “in the selfish interest of each person to give false signals, to pretend to have less interest in a given collective consumption activity than he really has.” From this he concluded that “no decentralized pricing system can serve to determine optimally these levels of collective consumption.” Public goods, on this view, are what governments are for. Refund bonuses are a challenge to that conclusion.Read the whole thing and here is my Rent Control Explainer.The post Dominant Assurance Contract aka Refund Bonus Explainer appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/zTopqDF
Wednesday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. A catalog of past AI predictions.2. Jasmine Sun on why people do not want data centers. And Jasmine Sun on Ezra Klein, on data centers (NYT).3. A bot running an SF retail boutique? (NYT)4. Elise Cawley, RIP.5. On the NYC grocery store plan.6. New credit card gives you tokens instead of miles.7. Does AI mean the end of math heroes? Some other heroes too?The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments““It is quite likely that in the next presidential election ... by JSKLast week Aisha Khan asserted that her fellow Muslims were ... by Action Figure
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/1k5n97U
Tyler Cowen
1. A catalog of past AI predictions.2. Jasmine Sun on why people do not want data centers. And Jasmine Sun on Ezra Klein, on data centers (NYT).3. A bot running an SF retail boutique? (NYT)4. Elise Cawley, RIP.5. On the NYC grocery store plan.6. New credit card gives you tokens instead of miles.7. Does AI mean the end of math heroes? Some other heroes too?The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments““It is quite likely that in the next presidential election ... by JSKLast week Aisha Khan asserted that her fellow Muslims were ... by Action Figure
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/1k5n97U
Who Pays for Unions?
Tyler Cowen
If unions raise worker wages, who pays? We provide a comprehensive assessment of firm responses to increased unionization, using changes in the tax deductibility of union dues in Norway as a quasi-exogenous source of variation in firm-level union density. In the average private sector firm, higher union density raises labor costs and leads firms to contract employment and production, lowering profits without increasing the labor share. The incidence is shared: consumers bear part of the cost through higher prices, shareholders through lower profits, and the remainder is offset by productivity improvements. The total wage bill falls, with losses concentrated among less-attached “outsider” workers. Firm responses vary systematically by the degree of market competition. In manufacturing, where firms operate in less competitive product and labor markets, the response is reversed: the average firm expands employment and production, reduces labor markdowns, and does not experience profit declines. Instead, higher labor costs are largely passed on to consumers through higher prices, with the remainder offset by productivity gains. Workers benefit as both wages and employment rise. These patterns suggest that unions can offset employer monopsony power and that firm responses–and therefore who ultimately bears the cost-depend importantly on market structure. Overall, unionization in this setting primarily redistributes from consumers rather than shareholders and has effects that differ sharply across firms, including a reallocation toward larger and more productive firms. We rationalize these patterns using a partial-equilibrium model of union bargaining with product- and labor-market power.That is forthcoming in the QJE by Samuel Dodini, Anna Stansbury, and Alexander Willén.The post Who Pays for Unions? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe Value of Behavioral PoliciesEstimating the Economic Value of Zoning ReformThe economics of H-1B immigration
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/QGOCXfz
Tyler Cowen
If unions raise worker wages, who pays? We provide a comprehensive assessment of firm responses to increased unionization, using changes in the tax deductibility of union dues in Norway as a quasi-exogenous source of variation in firm-level union density. In the average private sector firm, higher union density raises labor costs and leads firms to contract employment and production, lowering profits without increasing the labor share. The incidence is shared: consumers bear part of the cost through higher prices, shareholders through lower profits, and the remainder is offset by productivity improvements. The total wage bill falls, with losses concentrated among less-attached “outsider” workers. Firm responses vary systematically by the degree of market competition. In manufacturing, where firms operate in less competitive product and labor markets, the response is reversed: the average firm expands employment and production, reduces labor markdowns, and does not experience profit declines. Instead, higher labor costs are largely passed on to consumers through higher prices, with the remainder offset by productivity gains. Workers benefit as both wages and employment rise. These patterns suggest that unions can offset employer monopsony power and that firm responses–and therefore who ultimately bears the cost-depend importantly on market structure. Overall, unionization in this setting primarily redistributes from consumers rather than shareholders and has effects that differ sharply across firms, including a reallocation toward larger and more productive firms. We rationalize these patterns using a partial-equilibrium model of union bargaining with product- and labor-market power.That is forthcoming in the QJE by Samuel Dodini, Anna Stansbury, and Alexander Willén.The post Who Pays for Unions? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe Value of Behavioral PoliciesEstimating the Economic Value of Zoning ReformThe economics of H-1B immigration
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/QGOCXfz