Wednesday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. Balaji and Network State moving to Kazakhstan.2. Why evolvable AI is not yet a Darwinian threat.3. “This paper argues that societies with greater historical exposure to natural disasters are more likely to develop long-term-oriented norms that emphasize preparation, saving, and future well-being.”4. And from Agustin: Questions that Are Rarely Asked.5. MacroMusings podcast with Basil Halperin.6. Kudos to Laura Loomer.The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
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Tyler Cowen
1. Balaji and Network State moving to Kazakhstan.2. Why evolvable AI is not yet a Darwinian threat.3. “This paper argues that societies with greater historical exposure to natural disasters are more likely to develop long-term-oriented norms that emphasize preparation, saving, and future well-being.”4. And from Agustin: Questions that Are Rarely Asked.5. MacroMusings podcast with Basil Halperin.6. Kudos to Laura Loomer.The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
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Brazil fact of the day
Tyler Cowen
Last year, the US exported $171bn of agricultural goods according to the Department of Agriculture, just $2bn more than the export total claimed by Brazil, which many analysts say has benefited from trade disruption set in train by President Donald Trump’s tariffs.With US exports falling and Brazil’s rising — they increased 6 per cent in the first half of this year to hit a new record of $87bn — 2026 could prove the year in which America loses its agricultural ascendancy.Here is more from Susannah Savage and Michael Pooler at the Financial Times.The post Brazil fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsMaybe the US needs fewer farms now? by WelpDrake no: mercantilism Drake yes: “agricultural ... by Gilligan
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Tyler Cowen
Last year, the US exported $171bn of agricultural goods according to the Department of Agriculture, just $2bn more than the export total claimed by Brazil, which many analysts say has benefited from trade disruption set in train by President Donald Trump’s tariffs.With US exports falling and Brazil’s rising — they increased 6 per cent in the first half of this year to hit a new record of $87bn — 2026 could prove the year in which America loses its agricultural ascendancy.Here is more from Susannah Savage and Michael Pooler at the Financial Times.The post Brazil fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsMaybe the US needs fewer farms now? by WelpDrake no: mercantilism Drake yes: “agricultural ... by Gilligan
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Solve for the equilibrium
Tyler Cowen
Something that the Ukraine and Iran wars have taught me is that for a lot of countries, including very big countries, there are a small number of buildings and infrastructure components that are required for their economy to function.And in countries that aren’t protected by oceans, like the US, drones completely change everything.You can just make a list of oil refineries and production plants and the infrastructure around their main exports, and you can just attack them and destroy them and take them off the list.4 years ago I would have thought there are too many of these components and they’re too easy to recreate, but both of these collisions have taught me that there are far fewer and that many of them will take years, if not over a decade, to rebuild.It’s very strange to me that drones can now effectively harm the economy of a country.That is from Daniel Miessler. While I am glad Russia is on the receiving end of this right now, this is arguably our biggest pending problem, bigger than what people typically refer to as AI risk.The post Solve for the equilibrium appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesAn OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox and Hacked Hugging FaceAlec Stapp on the new Science report from Michael KratsiosBetting markets in everything
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Tyler Cowen
Something that the Ukraine and Iran wars have taught me is that for a lot of countries, including very big countries, there are a small number of buildings and infrastructure components that are required for their economy to function.And in countries that aren’t protected by oceans, like the US, drones completely change everything.You can just make a list of oil refineries and production plants and the infrastructure around their main exports, and you can just attack them and destroy them and take them off the list.4 years ago I would have thought there are too many of these components and they’re too easy to recreate, but both of these collisions have taught me that there are far fewer and that many of them will take years, if not over a decade, to rebuild.It’s very strange to me that drones can now effectively harm the economy of a country.That is from Daniel Miessler. While I am glad Russia is on the receiving end of this right now, this is arguably our biggest pending problem, bigger than what people typically refer to as AI risk.The post Solve for the equilibrium appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesAn OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox and Hacked Hugging FaceAlec Stapp on the new Science report from Michael KratsiosBetting markets in everything
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My excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-Dixon
Tyler Cowen
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. From the episode summary:Tyler and Andrew discuss whether it was inevitable we’d rediscover Vermeer, how that vanishingly rare sect left its fingerprints all over his life, why the Met has misread its own Allegory of the Catholic Faith, whether Vermeer painted for money or pointedly refused to, where the Gardner’s stolen Concert might be, why Dutch music never blossomed as much as Dutch painting did, how the Church of England rivaled the Cultural Revolution in wiping out British art, whether you can still spot an English painting on sight, the love that saturates late Rembrandt and the mystery of his soaring print prices, the nail on the wall that proves two Vermeer paintings are a pair, why the French are to blame for George Stubbs’ lack of status, whether we can still love Malevich, why Andrews calls recent Richter “almost like printing money,” why female artists and antique textiles remain absurdly cheap, why nobody builds beautiful neighborhoods any longer, and much more.Excerpt:COWEN: In what sense was Vermeer a liberal?GRAHAM-DIXON: Well, the main discovery of my book is that Vermeer was among the very first pioneers of what we now call the liberal tradition.COWEN: What we now call the Netherlands, then the Dutch Republic.GRAHAM-DIXON: In the Dutch Republic, and the Dutch contribution to the Enlightenment, which is the origins of the liberal tradition, has been very much forgotten. That’s absolutely at the heart of my book, is an attempt to remember these people, to bring them back into the place in history that they deserve. I’m not only talking about Vermeer. I’m talking about his friends, his patrons, because that’s the discovery of the book, is that he and his friends were a remarkable group of people, and they have been completely forgotten, and what they believed has been largely forgotten too. We need to remember it now, probably more than ever.COWEN: This was also a religious movement.GRAHAM-DIXON: Yes.COWEN: Doctrinally, how would they have been different from, say, Protestants in England? The Collegiants, the Remonstrants?GRAHAM-DIXON: Yes. Vermeer’s patrons, it emerges, and Vermeer himself, were part of a Protestant sect in Holland called the Remonstrants. They had a more extreme manifestation called the Collegiants, and they were unique among all Christian denominations of that time in being utterly opposed to division, hostility, enmity. The only thing they wanted was to bring all Christians, indeed all people—they included Jewish people and Muslim people—they wanted to bring everyone together within a faith that only really cleaved to the essentials of what Jesus Christ said, particularly in the Sermon on the Mount.They said, “If you actually follow Jesus properly, you can never make war. You can never persecute someone who differs from your opinion. You can never pick on somebody because they believe something different.” They were very, very tolerationist. They formed the first pacifist movement in European history. They lived in a time of appalling warfare, the Thirty Years’ War, probably the worst war in the history of the modern West. Fifteen million out of 20 million German people died in the course of 30 years, and the 5 million who were left, all the women had been violated, and all the men only have one arm or one leg. It was truly atrocious.They’re responding to real traumatic historical events. They’re responding to what is going on around the corner from where they live. They come up with this very, very beautiful approach to life, full of optimism, full of idealism. For about 20 years, the Dutch Republic actually lives by these codes of belief to a great extent. It’s the only tolerant country in Europe.And this:COWEN: What makes George Stubbs such an underrated painter?GRAHAM-DIXON: I think he’s been underrated forever because of his subject matter. I blame the French. The French in the 17th century invented a system for ranking works…
Tyler Cowen
Here is the audio, video, and transcript. From the episode summary:Tyler and Andrew discuss whether it was inevitable we’d rediscover Vermeer, how that vanishingly rare sect left its fingerprints all over his life, why the Met has misread its own Allegory of the Catholic Faith, whether Vermeer painted for money or pointedly refused to, where the Gardner’s stolen Concert might be, why Dutch music never blossomed as much as Dutch painting did, how the Church of England rivaled the Cultural Revolution in wiping out British art, whether you can still spot an English painting on sight, the love that saturates late Rembrandt and the mystery of his soaring print prices, the nail on the wall that proves two Vermeer paintings are a pair, why the French are to blame for George Stubbs’ lack of status, whether we can still love Malevich, why Andrews calls recent Richter “almost like printing money,” why female artists and antique textiles remain absurdly cheap, why nobody builds beautiful neighborhoods any longer, and much more.Excerpt:COWEN: In what sense was Vermeer a liberal?GRAHAM-DIXON: Well, the main discovery of my book is that Vermeer was among the very first pioneers of what we now call the liberal tradition.COWEN: What we now call the Netherlands, then the Dutch Republic.GRAHAM-DIXON: In the Dutch Republic, and the Dutch contribution to the Enlightenment, which is the origins of the liberal tradition, has been very much forgotten. That’s absolutely at the heart of my book, is an attempt to remember these people, to bring them back into the place in history that they deserve. I’m not only talking about Vermeer. I’m talking about his friends, his patrons, because that’s the discovery of the book, is that he and his friends were a remarkable group of people, and they have been completely forgotten, and what they believed has been largely forgotten too. We need to remember it now, probably more than ever.COWEN: This was also a religious movement.GRAHAM-DIXON: Yes.COWEN: Doctrinally, how would they have been different from, say, Protestants in England? The Collegiants, the Remonstrants?GRAHAM-DIXON: Yes. Vermeer’s patrons, it emerges, and Vermeer himself, were part of a Protestant sect in Holland called the Remonstrants. They had a more extreme manifestation called the Collegiants, and they were unique among all Christian denominations of that time in being utterly opposed to division, hostility, enmity. The only thing they wanted was to bring all Christians, indeed all people—they included Jewish people and Muslim people—they wanted to bring everyone together within a faith that only really cleaved to the essentials of what Jesus Christ said, particularly in the Sermon on the Mount.They said, “If you actually follow Jesus properly, you can never make war. You can never persecute someone who differs from your opinion. You can never pick on somebody because they believe something different.” They were very, very tolerationist. They formed the first pacifist movement in European history. They lived in a time of appalling warfare, the Thirty Years’ War, probably the worst war in the history of the modern West. Fifteen million out of 20 million German people died in the course of 30 years, and the 5 million who were left, all the women had been violated, and all the men only have one arm or one leg. It was truly atrocious.They’re responding to real traumatic historical events. They’re responding to what is going on around the corner from where they live. They come up with this very, very beautiful approach to life, full of optimism, full of idealism. For about 20 years, the Dutch Republic actually lives by these codes of belief to a great extent. It’s the only tolerant country in Europe.And this:COWEN: What makes George Stubbs such an underrated painter?GRAHAM-DIXON: I think he’s been underrated forever because of his subject matter. I blame the French. The French in the 17th century invented a system for ranking works…
What should I ask Gita Gopinath?
Tyler Cowen
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her. From Wikipedia:Gita Gopinath…is an Indian-American economist who is currently serving as the Gregory and Ania Coffey professor of Economics at Harvard University and previously served as the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), from 21 January 2022 to 31 August 2025. Before that she also served as chief economist of the IMF between 2019 and 2022.Here is Gita on scholar.google.com, she is an expert in international finance and exchange rates, and also international capital flows, among other topics. Here is Gita on Twitter. So what should I ask her?The post What should I ask Gita Gopinath? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe economic effects of GLP-1sBuilding luxury homes is good for the poorTrial Lawyers Lobby Against Autonomous Vehicles
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Tyler Cowen
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with her. From Wikipedia:Gita Gopinath…is an Indian-American economist who is currently serving as the Gregory and Ania Coffey professor of Economics at Harvard University and previously served as the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), from 21 January 2022 to 31 August 2025. Before that she also served as chief economist of the IMF between 2019 and 2022.Here is Gita on scholar.google.com, she is an expert in international finance and exchange rates, and also international capital flows, among other topics. Here is Gita on Twitter. So what should I ask her?The post What should I ask Gita Gopinath? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe economic effects of GLP-1sBuilding luxury homes is good for the poorTrial Lawyers Lobby Against Autonomous Vehicles
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Alex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of Crime
Alex Tabarrok
I tell my Gary Becker story, why I like police more than prisons, how criminals are like children and more.The post Alex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of Crime appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesBuilding luxury homes is good for the poorWhat should I ask Luis Garicano?What should I ask Gita Gopinath?
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Alex Tabarrok
I tell my Gary Becker story, why I like police more than prisons, how criminals are like children and more.The post Alex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of Crime appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesBuilding luxury homes is good for the poorWhat should I ask Luis Garicano?What should I ask Gita Gopinath?
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Thursday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. Puffin spotted on the Dorset coast.2. Anthropic chief economist on AI and unemployment.3. Whales use different vowels when ships are around.4. Oliver Kim on McNamara.5. Large language models can predict the results of social science experiments.6. Alexander Salter Substack on space economics.7. New Google data and study on AI and the economy.8. Does it matter if you don’t like the characters?The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments5. Social science researchers didn't need LLM's help in ... by rayward
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Tyler Cowen
1. Puffin spotted on the Dorset coast.2. Anthropic chief economist on AI and unemployment.3. Whales use different vowels when ships are around.4. Oliver Kim on McNamara.5. Large language models can predict the results of social science experiments.6. Alexander Salter Substack on space economics.7. New Google data and study on AI and the economy.8. Does it matter if you don’t like the characters?The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments5. Social science researchers didn't need LLM's help in ... by rayward
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What I’ve been reading
Tyler Cowen
1. Christopher Priest and Nina Allan, The Illuminated Man: Life, Death and the Worlds of J.G. Ballard. Priest died before he finished this book, and his widow added material, including on Priest himself. This is in any case a good overview and introduction to the strange worlds of Ballard. There is only a UK edition so far.2. Christian Kracht, Eurotrash, A Novel. I was put off by the title, but it turns out this is a fun and high-level short Swiss novel about driving around Switzerland with your semi-crazy eighty-year-old mother on a road trip. It helps to have some knowledge of both Switzerland and broader German-language literature.3. Walter Kempowski, Alles Umsonst. From 2006, could this be the best German-language novel since Sebald? It is about the pending doom from the Russian army approaching on East Prussia in 1945, and how the different characters deal with that, set on a German estate. Applicable to many other real world situations as well. There is an English-language translation, I am not sure how good it is. In any case an important and very good work of fiction.4. Lars Behrisch, Democracy’s Double Helix: Participation, Equality and Revolution in Early Modern Europe. A good book about how the roots of semi-democratic decision-making are found in 16th century Europe, and stemmed from new needs to assemble various military and fiscal coalitions. Looks at the problem more broadly, in geographic terms, than most comparable studies.5. Katie Kitamura, Audition. A fun short novel, full of mystery and suspense, good for those who like puzzles in their writing.The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMy excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-DixonMarkets in everything?What should I ask Luis Garicano?
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Tyler Cowen
1. Christopher Priest and Nina Allan, The Illuminated Man: Life, Death and the Worlds of J.G. Ballard. Priest died before he finished this book, and his widow added material, including on Priest himself. This is in any case a good overview and introduction to the strange worlds of Ballard. There is only a UK edition so far.2. Christian Kracht, Eurotrash, A Novel. I was put off by the title, but it turns out this is a fun and high-level short Swiss novel about driving around Switzerland with your semi-crazy eighty-year-old mother on a road trip. It helps to have some knowledge of both Switzerland and broader German-language literature.3. Walter Kempowski, Alles Umsonst. From 2006, could this be the best German-language novel since Sebald? It is about the pending doom from the Russian army approaching on East Prussia in 1945, and how the different characters deal with that, set on a German estate. Applicable to many other real world situations as well. There is an English-language translation, I am not sure how good it is. In any case an important and very good work of fiction.4. Lars Behrisch, Democracy’s Double Helix: Participation, Equality and Revolution in Early Modern Europe. A good book about how the roots of semi-democratic decision-making are found in 16th century Europe, and stemmed from new needs to assemble various military and fiscal coalitions. Looks at the problem more broadly, in geographic terms, than most comparable studies.5. Katie Kitamura, Audition. A fun short novel, full of mystery and suspense, good for those who like puzzles in their writing.The post What I’ve been reading appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMy excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-DixonMarkets in everything?What should I ask Luis Garicano?
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The optimal Bayesian update?
Tyler Cowen
I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident:1. “This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before.2. “This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before.3. “This happened, and as far as we can tell, absolutely no one was harmed,” therefore I am less worried than before.Obviously the net impact, from those bare hypotheses, is indeterminate. And yet few people seem to be paying much heed to #2 or #3. Joshua Saxe from the cyber world has some relevant observations. And perhaps other updates are needed as well.The post The optimal Bayesian update? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesAn OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox and Hacked Hugging FaceWords of wisdom on Chinese AI and our responsesSolve for the equilibrium
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Tyler Cowen
I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident:1. “This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before.2. “This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before.3. “This happened, and as far as we can tell, absolutely no one was harmed,” therefore I am less worried than before.Obviously the net impact, from those bare hypotheses, is indeterminate. And yet few people seem to be paying much heed to #2 or #3. Joshua Saxe from the cyber world has some relevant observations. And perhaps other updates are needed as well.The post The optimal Bayesian update? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesAn OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox and Hacked Hugging FaceWords of wisdom on Chinese AI and our responsesSolve for the equilibrium
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/wfRxZl0
European Fact of the Day, Again
Alex Tabarrok
This year, like last year, “the European Union will again make more money from fining US tech companies Than from the total tax income from Europe’s own public tech companies!”The post European Fact of the Day, Again appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsI guess this is tax collection by the different national ... by MTo play devil's advocate for the EU, they have legal ... by Scott MauldinRelated StoriesAlex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of CrimeThe economic effects of GLP-1sBuilding luxury homes is good for the poor
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Alex Tabarrok
This year, like last year, “the European Union will again make more money from fining US tech companies Than from the total tax income from Europe’s own public tech companies!”The post European Fact of the Day, Again appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsI guess this is tax collection by the different national ... by MTo play devil's advocate for the EU, they have legal ... by Scott MauldinRelated StoriesAlex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of CrimeThe economic effects of GLP-1sBuilding luxury homes is good for the poor
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Talk Therapy is Speech
Alex Tabarrok
IJ: On Wednesday, the United States District Court for the District of Columbia struck down a D.C. law that barred therapists from other jurisdictions from doing online teletherapy visits with clients in D.C. The decision comes nearly six years after Virginia-based counselor Elizabeth Brokamp teamed up with the Institute for Justice (IJ) to file a lawsuit arguing the law violated the First Amendment.“This decision is a victory for anyone who speaks for a living,” said IJ Deputy Director of Litigation Robert McNamara. “Elizabeth’s victory here confirms that the First Amendment protects useful speech, including counseling, and that licensing boards can’t censor speech simply because someone doesn’t have their permission to talk.”Congrats to the IJ! Now, we need to get rid of all the other bans on patients hiring physicians from other states. As I wrote last year:During the pandemic, many restrictions on telemedicine were lifted, making it far easier for physicians to treat patients across state lines. That window has largely closed. Today, unless a doctor is separately licensed in a patient’s state—or the states have a formal agreement—remote care is often illegal. So if you live in Virginia and want a second opinion from a Mayo Clinic physician in Florida, you may have to fly to Florida, unless that Florida physician happens to hold a Virginia license.The standard framing says this is a problem of physician licensing. That leads directly to calls for interstate compacts or federalizing medical licensure. Mutual recognition is good. Driver’s licenses are issued by states but are valid in every state. No one complains that Florida’s regime endangers Virginians. But mutual recognition or federal licensing is not the only solution nor the only way to think about this issue.The real issue isn’t who licenses doctors. It’s that patients are forbidden from choosing a licensed doctor in another state. We can keep state-level licensing, but free the patient. Let any American consult any physician licensed in any state. That’s competitive federalism—no compacts, no federal agency, just patient choice.Hat tip: Joel Selanikio.The post Talk Therapy is Speech appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsWould be interesting to see the medical profession’s take on ... by Abby PRelated StoriesEuropean Fact of the Day, AgainAlex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of CrimeAlec Stapp on the new Science report from Michael Kratsios
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Alex Tabarrok
IJ: On Wednesday, the United States District Court for the District of Columbia struck down a D.C. law that barred therapists from other jurisdictions from doing online teletherapy visits with clients in D.C. The decision comes nearly six years after Virginia-based counselor Elizabeth Brokamp teamed up with the Institute for Justice (IJ) to file a lawsuit arguing the law violated the First Amendment.“This decision is a victory for anyone who speaks for a living,” said IJ Deputy Director of Litigation Robert McNamara. “Elizabeth’s victory here confirms that the First Amendment protects useful speech, including counseling, and that licensing boards can’t censor speech simply because someone doesn’t have their permission to talk.”Congrats to the IJ! Now, we need to get rid of all the other bans on patients hiring physicians from other states. As I wrote last year:During the pandemic, many restrictions on telemedicine were lifted, making it far easier for physicians to treat patients across state lines. That window has largely closed. Today, unless a doctor is separately licensed in a patient’s state—or the states have a formal agreement—remote care is often illegal. So if you live in Virginia and want a second opinion from a Mayo Clinic physician in Florida, you may have to fly to Florida, unless that Florida physician happens to hold a Virginia license.The standard framing says this is a problem of physician licensing. That leads directly to calls for interstate compacts or federalizing medical licensure. Mutual recognition is good. Driver’s licenses are issued by states but are valid in every state. No one complains that Florida’s regime endangers Virginians. But mutual recognition or federal licensing is not the only solution nor the only way to think about this issue.The real issue isn’t who licenses doctors. It’s that patients are forbidden from choosing a licensed doctor in another state. We can keep state-level licensing, but free the patient. Let any American consult any physician licensed in any state. That’s competitive federalism—no compacts, no federal agency, just patient choice.Hat tip: Joel Selanikio.The post Talk Therapy is Speech appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsWould be interesting to see the medical profession’s take on ... by Abby PRelated StoriesEuropean Fact of the Day, AgainAlex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of CrimeAlec Stapp on the new Science report from Michael Kratsios
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Friday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. How global was “antiquity”?2. Why the Clarity Act is mired in muck (NYT).3. Jim Olds on the new science plan.4. Cyber capabilities of Kimi 3?5. “Following a standard workplace safety check, I have just received an email from a university administrator in which my custom of keeping books on the shelves in my office is described as “the unnecessary storing of combustible materials”.” Link here.6. Are current science books for children demotivating?7. Brazilian murder rate is down 40% from its 2017 peak.8. Is the number of words we speak each day dropping by 300 each year?The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
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Tyler Cowen
1. How global was “antiquity”?2. Why the Clarity Act is mired in muck (NYT).3. Jim Olds on the new science plan.4. Cyber capabilities of Kimi 3?5. “Following a standard workplace safety check, I have just received an email from a university administrator in which my custom of keeping books on the shelves in my office is described as “the unnecessary storing of combustible materials”.” Link here.6. Are current science books for children demotivating?7. Brazilian murder rate is down 40% from its 2017 peak.8. Is the number of words we speak each day dropping by 300 each year?The post Friday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
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The Decision, the sequel
Tyler Cowen
Imagine your career were coming to a close, how would you want it to end? By earning an especially large sum of money? Publishing a final wonderful paper? With an amazing act of mentorship?When it comes to Lebron, had he wanted to finish his career with the guys he enjoys playing with the most, he would have opted for Golden State (Steph and Draymond).If he had wanted to choose his favored organization, he would have signed with Miami.Furthering the NBA prospects of his son Bronny, and having more time with family, would have meant staying in Los Angeles.The hometown, sentimental choice would have been Cleveland.As it turned out, he wanted to maximize his chances of winning a title, and with a team that did not just win a title (which rules out OKC, NYC). That meant signing with Philadelphia. Which is what he did.What will your final major career decision look like?The post The Decision, the sequel appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMy excellent Conversation with Chase KochToward a theory of uni-contextIncentives matter, installment #1637
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Tyler Cowen
Imagine your career were coming to a close, how would you want it to end? By earning an especially large sum of money? Publishing a final wonderful paper? With an amazing act of mentorship?When it comes to Lebron, had he wanted to finish his career with the guys he enjoys playing with the most, he would have opted for Golden State (Steph and Draymond).If he had wanted to choose his favored organization, he would have signed with Miami.Furthering the NBA prospects of his son Bronny, and having more time with family, would have meant staying in Los Angeles.The hometown, sentimental choice would have been Cleveland.As it turned out, he wanted to maximize his chances of winning a title, and with a team that did not just win a title (which rules out OKC, NYC). That meant signing with Philadelphia. Which is what he did.What will your final major career decision look like?The post The Decision, the sequel appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMy excellent Conversation with Chase KochToward a theory of uni-contextIncentives matter, installment #1637
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Crypto markets in everything? (moo)
Tyler Cowen
Farmers in Parana, Brazil, struggling to get banks to loan them cash, became the first to tokenize livestock and place 10 dairy milk cows’ tokens for trade on the country’s B3 national stock exchange. They generated nearly $20,000 in credit backed by their cattle, signaling the potential of tokenizing RWAs as a financing tool.The dairy cow tokenization in Brazil is a world first and serves as a test in a real-world scenario in which farmers are facing increasingly stringent lending limits imposed by local banks on small agricultural businesses.“We take the cow, which is a real and tangible asset, and transform it into a digital asset backed by a unique code monitored in real time,” Thiago Martins of Cowmed, a Brazilian Agtec company, told CNNBrasil recently.…“This digitization allows for formal registration with B3 as a movable asset,” Martins added. “The process is simple and gives the producer an advantageous opportunity to finance themselves, opening a new alternative for collateral at a time of strong credit restrictions in agribusiness.”To turn cattle into trusted financial guarantees or collateral without requiring inspectors to visit the property, Cowmed equips cows with an AI-powered Smarty Collar. These collars constantly monitor health, behavior, and location. The raw data is then converted into an encrypted digital identity tied directly to the B3 credit agreement.Continuous tracking of cattle prevents farmers from double-pledging the same cattle across multiple loans. It also includes built-in safeguards that allow the farmer to swap one dead cow for a live one.Cowmed already tracks about 100,000 dairy cows across more than 1,000 farms. The herd is worth over $395 million. The company expects up to 20% of its network to adopt this tokenized financing model, unlocking $77.6 million in fresh credit for the agricultural sector.Here is the full story.The post Crypto markets in everything? (moo) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsBullish by esRelated StoriesEuropean Fact of the Day, AgainAlex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of CrimeWhat should I ask Gita Gopinath?
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Tyler Cowen
Farmers in Parana, Brazil, struggling to get banks to loan them cash, became the first to tokenize livestock and place 10 dairy milk cows’ tokens for trade on the country’s B3 national stock exchange. They generated nearly $20,000 in credit backed by their cattle, signaling the potential of tokenizing RWAs as a financing tool.The dairy cow tokenization in Brazil is a world first and serves as a test in a real-world scenario in which farmers are facing increasingly stringent lending limits imposed by local banks on small agricultural businesses.“We take the cow, which is a real and tangible asset, and transform it into a digital asset backed by a unique code monitored in real time,” Thiago Martins of Cowmed, a Brazilian Agtec company, told CNNBrasil recently.…“This digitization allows for formal registration with B3 as a movable asset,” Martins added. “The process is simple and gives the producer an advantageous opportunity to finance themselves, opening a new alternative for collateral at a time of strong credit restrictions in agribusiness.”To turn cattle into trusted financial guarantees or collateral without requiring inspectors to visit the property, Cowmed equips cows with an AI-powered Smarty Collar. These collars constantly monitor health, behavior, and location. The raw data is then converted into an encrypted digital identity tied directly to the B3 credit agreement.Continuous tracking of cattle prevents farmers from double-pledging the same cattle across multiple loans. It also includes built-in safeguards that allow the farmer to swap one dead cow for a live one.Cowmed already tracks about 100,000 dairy cows across more than 1,000 farms. The herd is worth over $395 million. The company expects up to 20% of its network to adopt this tokenized financing model, unlocking $77.6 million in fresh credit for the agricultural sector.Here is the full story.The post Crypto markets in everything? (moo) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsBullish by esRelated StoriesEuropean Fact of the Day, AgainAlex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of CrimeWhat should I ask Gita Gopinath?
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A natural experiment in economics
Tyler Cowen
To study whether and how academics respond to political pressure, we exploit a natural experiment: the publication in early 2025 of a “blacklist” of words flagged by the U.S. government. We find that the release of this list led to a sharp reduction in the use of these flagged words among economists at universities that rely heavily on federal funding, relative to scholars from institutions that are less dependent on federal funding or based in the UK. The drop is driven by content related to gender, race, and environment. We show that changes are not simply semantic but reflect actual paper content and that neither the individual funding status nor time-invariant author characteristics are driving the effects. We also document interesting heterogeneous effects by department quality and author gender and ethnicity. Our findings are consistent with the idea that scholars respond strongly to political pressure.That is from a new paper by Dominic Rohner, Oliver Vanden Eynde, and Philine Widmer. I should note that the authors frame their results in terms of “Science under threat,” which indeed is in the title of their paper. I do see some of that in operation, but I also see a lot of “removing incentives for pandering.” Your own weights here may vary.The post A natural experiment in economics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesDemocrats are more politically segregated than are RepublicansWhat should I ask Luis Garicano?European Fact of the Day, Again
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Tyler Cowen
To study whether and how academics respond to political pressure, we exploit a natural experiment: the publication in early 2025 of a “blacklist” of words flagged by the U.S. government. We find that the release of this list led to a sharp reduction in the use of these flagged words among economists at universities that rely heavily on federal funding, relative to scholars from institutions that are less dependent on federal funding or based in the UK. The drop is driven by content related to gender, race, and environment. We show that changes are not simply semantic but reflect actual paper content and that neither the individual funding status nor time-invariant author characteristics are driving the effects. We also document interesting heterogeneous effects by department quality and author gender and ethnicity. Our findings are consistent with the idea that scholars respond strongly to political pressure.That is from a new paper by Dominic Rohner, Oliver Vanden Eynde, and Philine Widmer. I should note that the authors frame their results in terms of “Science under threat,” which indeed is in the title of their paper. I do see some of that in operation, but I also see a lot of “removing incentives for pandering.” Your own weights here may vary.The post A natural experiment in economics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesDemocrats are more politically segregated than are RepublicansWhat should I ask Luis Garicano?European Fact of the Day, Again
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/9nwb0MA
Saturday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. The 1991 Project’s oral history collection (led by Shreyas Narla and Shruti) with ~50 hours of interviews with policy reformers and witnesses to India’s market liberalization, is now available.2. Mini Cities.3. The new Claude, on Mondrian.4. More on cybersecurity and cyberdefense. And Simon Willison on The Incident. And early AI fears were not about LLMs, and that makes a big difference.5. Critique of the new 76ers.6. Anthropic economic research futures allocating $200 million to RCTs.7. Interview with Emily Wilson. Excellent piece, many of you underrate her.The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/TonwS5b
Tyler Cowen
1. The 1991 Project’s oral history collection (led by Shreyas Narla and Shruti) with ~50 hours of interviews with policy reformers and witnesses to India’s market liberalization, is now available.2. Mini Cities.3. The new Claude, on Mondrian.4. More on cybersecurity and cyberdefense. And Simon Willison on The Incident. And early AI fears were not about LLMs, and that makes a big difference.5. Critique of the new 76ers.6. Anthropic economic research futures allocating $200 million to RCTs.7. Interview with Emily Wilson. Excellent piece, many of you underrate her.The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/TonwS5b
Odysseus notes
Tyler Cowen
The subsection of the Georgi Gospodinov novel runs like this:The Shortest Novel About Odysseus After His Return HomeOne night, now old and flabby and starting to forget, he leaves his home secretly. He’s sick of everything, so he heads back one last time to see the places, women, and wonders he had once encountered. To go back again into his draimed memory to see how it had been and who he had been. Because thanks to the bitter irony of old age, he has begun to transform into the Nobody, the name he had once cleverly used when introducing himself to the Cyclops.Telemachus finds him in the evening, collapsed by the boat, only a hundred yards from home, with no idea what he is doing there and where he had been heading.They take him back to a house with some woman he no longer remembers.The novel is Time Shelter, and the premise is that refuges are built for people with Alzheimer’s, reflecting life from past decades, for instance the 1960s. But then people from the present start wanting to live in them.The post Odysseus notes appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMy excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-Dixon*The Odyssey*, the movie (no real spoilers)The Decision, the sequel
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Tyler Cowen
The subsection of the Georgi Gospodinov novel runs like this:The Shortest Novel About Odysseus After His Return HomeOne night, now old and flabby and starting to forget, he leaves his home secretly. He’s sick of everything, so he heads back one last time to see the places, women, and wonders he had once encountered. To go back again into his draimed memory to see how it had been and who he had been. Because thanks to the bitter irony of old age, he has begun to transform into the Nobody, the name he had once cleverly used when introducing himself to the Cyclops.Telemachus finds him in the evening, collapsed by the boat, only a hundred yards from home, with no idea what he is doing there and where he had been heading.They take him back to a house with some woman he no longer remembers.The novel is Time Shelter, and the premise is that refuges are built for people with Alzheimer’s, reflecting life from past decades, for instance the 1960s. But then people from the present start wanting to live in them.The post Odysseus notes appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMy excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-Dixon*The Odyssey*, the movie (no real spoilers)The Decision, the sequel
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/Mtqo5Y2
The common sense of Fareed Zakaria
Tyler Cowen
This is one of the best Op-Eds you will read this year, though it deliberately deemphasizes the personal (no one is attacked) in a manner that will result in less attention. Better to write the truth! Excerpt:Why has this [voter discontent} happened? Some of it is economic. Expensive housing, stagnant incomes and widening inequality have fueled public anger. But economics is only part of the story. America has enjoyed stronger growth than most other advanced economies. France under President Emmanuel Macron has lowered unemployment, and it has attracted more foreign investment projects than any country in Europe for seven straight years, according to an Ernst & Young analysis. South Korea is an economic success story. Japan was experiencing a comeback. Yet democratic governments almost everywhere are unpopular.The larger explanation is that we are living through one of history’s great technological revolutions. And these transformations always produce deep anxiety and fear.The last technological transformation on this scale came between roughly 1880 and 1920. Electricity, the telephone, railroads, the automobile and movies overturned entire industries and ways of life. Millions left farms for cities. Global trade disrupted local economies. New fortunes appeared overnight, while old occupations disappeared. In this turmoil, frustration and anger found political pathways. The left turned to communism, the right to fascism. What followed were new mass movements, cultural upheavals and world war.Do read the whole thing. You can be a victim of these processes, or keep your wits about you. The choice is yours.The post The common sense of Fareed Zakaria appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe optimal Bayesian update?An OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox and Hacked Hugging FaceIs America ruled by an oligarchy?
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Tyler Cowen
This is one of the best Op-Eds you will read this year, though it deliberately deemphasizes the personal (no one is attacked) in a manner that will result in less attention. Better to write the truth! Excerpt:Why has this [voter discontent} happened? Some of it is economic. Expensive housing, stagnant incomes and widening inequality have fueled public anger. But economics is only part of the story. America has enjoyed stronger growth than most other advanced economies. France under President Emmanuel Macron has lowered unemployment, and it has attracted more foreign investment projects than any country in Europe for seven straight years, according to an Ernst & Young analysis. South Korea is an economic success story. Japan was experiencing a comeback. Yet democratic governments almost everywhere are unpopular.The larger explanation is that we are living through one of history’s great technological revolutions. And these transformations always produce deep anxiety and fear.The last technological transformation on this scale came between roughly 1880 and 1920. Electricity, the telephone, railroads, the automobile and movies overturned entire industries and ways of life. Millions left farms for cities. Global trade disrupted local economies. New fortunes appeared overnight, while old occupations disappeared. In this turmoil, frustration and anger found political pathways. The left turned to communism, the right to fascism. What followed were new mass movements, cultural upheavals and world war.Do read the whole thing. You can be a victim of these processes, or keep your wits about you. The choice is yours.The post The common sense of Fareed Zakaria appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe optimal Bayesian update?An OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox and Hacked Hugging FaceIs America ruled by an oligarchy?
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The demand for human enhancement technologies
Tyler Cowen
When a new technology promises large private benefits but may impose social costs that markets do not price, demand need not reveal how citizens want it governed. We examine this using a nationally representative U.S. survey experiment (N=5,556) on human enhancement technologies (HET). The experiment randomizes benefit domain, mechanism, heritability, purpose, and risk across vignettes; for each respondent’s assigned vignette, we elicit stated adoption, preferred regulation, and ethical and societal concerns. Overall, about 53% would adopt. Framing the technology as enhancing rather than restorative lowers adoption by about five percentage points, as much as a severe side-effect profile. About 28% would not adopt at any benefit. This refusal is driven overwhelmingly by the enhancing framing rather than by risk, consistent with a non-compensatory constraint for a substantial subgroup. Most who would adopt still favor strict regulation, and most who would never adopt do not wish to forbid others from doing so. Productivity enhancement generates the most ethical concern of any attribute but attracts the least regulation, and respondents favor subsidizing rather than taxing its adoption, consistent with a concern about access rather than safety. Private demand is therefore an unreliable guide to the governance citizens want, and the divergence we document provides a basis for regulators seeking to align the direction of technical change with societal values and priorities.That is from a new NBER working paper by Giovanni Immordino, Mario Macis, Immacolata Marino & Fabrizio Panebianco. And I will repeat this segment: “Productivity enhancement generates the most ethical concern of any attribute…” Do note of course that the last sentence of the authors is completely unwarranted, and is a classic example of underidentified political bias in academic reasoning.The post The demand for human enhancement technologies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe common sense of Fareed ZakariaA natural experiment in economicsAn OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox and Hacked Hugging Face
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Tyler Cowen
When a new technology promises large private benefits but may impose social costs that markets do not price, demand need not reveal how citizens want it governed. We examine this using a nationally representative U.S. survey experiment (N=5,556) on human enhancement technologies (HET). The experiment randomizes benefit domain, mechanism, heritability, purpose, and risk across vignettes; for each respondent’s assigned vignette, we elicit stated adoption, preferred regulation, and ethical and societal concerns. Overall, about 53% would adopt. Framing the technology as enhancing rather than restorative lowers adoption by about five percentage points, as much as a severe side-effect profile. About 28% would not adopt at any benefit. This refusal is driven overwhelmingly by the enhancing framing rather than by risk, consistent with a non-compensatory constraint for a substantial subgroup. Most who would adopt still favor strict regulation, and most who would never adopt do not wish to forbid others from doing so. Productivity enhancement generates the most ethical concern of any attribute but attracts the least regulation, and respondents favor subsidizing rather than taxing its adoption, consistent with a concern about access rather than safety. Private demand is therefore an unreliable guide to the governance citizens want, and the divergence we document provides a basis for regulators seeking to align the direction of technical change with societal values and priorities.That is from a new NBER working paper by Giovanni Immordino, Mario Macis, Immacolata Marino & Fabrizio Panebianco. And I will repeat this segment: “Productivity enhancement generates the most ethical concern of any attribute…” Do note of course that the last sentence of the authors is completely unwarranted, and is a classic example of underidentified political bias in academic reasoning.The post The demand for human enhancement technologies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe common sense of Fareed ZakariaA natural experiment in economicsAn OpenAI Model Escaped Its Sandbox and Hacked Hugging Face
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/HWmhcfy
The Rug Belt Atlas and Quiz
Alex Tabarrok
I have an amateur interest in Oriental rugs but my eye is untrained. Thus, for fun and learning I created with Fable an Rug Atlas and quiz.The Rug Belt AtlasCheck it out. Constructive comments welcome.The post The Rug Belt Atlas and Quiz appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMy excellent Conversation with Chase KochMy excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-DixonEmergent Ventures winners, 56th cohort
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Alex Tabarrok
I have an amateur interest in Oriental rugs but my eye is untrained. Thus, for fun and learning I created with Fable an Rug Atlas and quiz.The Rug Belt AtlasCheck it out. Constructive comments welcome.The post The Rug Belt Atlas and Quiz appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesMy excellent Conversation with Chase KochMy excellent Conversation with Andrew Graham-DixonEmergent Ventures winners, 56th cohort
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/ds8wNJu
Sunday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. Deirdre economics reading list.2. The 1878 entrance exam for the British India civil service.3. How good is Opus 5 on biology?4. “A linguistic “golden age” flourished between 1,000 to 3,000 years ago when tens of thousands of languages were spoken throughout the world, according to a new study coauthored by Yale linguist Claire Bowern that traces trajectories in global language diversity over the past 12,000 years.” Link here.5. Feline decentralized Italian mob fire attacks.6. First Neuromancer trailer released.7. Good Maureen Dowd review, the de-eroticized Homer (NYT). Excellent piece, many of you underrate her.The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
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Tyler Cowen
1. Deirdre economics reading list.2. The 1878 entrance exam for the British India civil service.3. How good is Opus 5 on biology?4. “A linguistic “golden age” flourished between 1,000 to 3,000 years ago when tens of thousands of languages were spoken throughout the world, according to a new study coauthored by Yale linguist Claire Bowern that traces trajectories in global language diversity over the past 12,000 years.” Link here.5. Feline decentralized Italian mob fire attacks.6. First Neuromancer trailer released.7. Good Maureen Dowd review, the de-eroticized Homer (NYT). Excellent piece, many of you underrate her.The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://ift.tt/i5n8cEz