๋ฌป๋”ฐ๋ฐฉ ๐Ÿ•
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(๋ฐฉ์žฅํ•œํ…Œ) ๋ฌป์ง€๋„ ๋”ฐ์ง€์ง€๋„ ์•Š๋Š” ๋ฐฉ

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โ”” ์ฐธ ๋ฐฉ์†กํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‰ฝ์ฃ ์ž‰ ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹
๐Ÿ‘31๐Ÿ˜3โšก1
ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น: ํ•œํ™” ํ•„๋ฆฌ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ Golden Defender ๊ฑด์กฐ ์Šน์ธ

- MASGA ์™ธ ๋ฏธ๊ตฐ Golden Dome ๋ฐฉ๊ณต๋ง ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ˜‘์—… ํ™•๋Œ€
- ๊ธฐ์กด ๋‹ค๋ชฉ์  ํ•จ์ • ๋””์ž์ธ์„ Missile Monitor Ship ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณ€๊ฒฝ ํ™œ์šฉ
- ํ•œํ™” Defense USA CEO : ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฑด์กฐ ์บํŒŒ 3์ฒ™ > 10-20์ฒ™ ํ™•์žฅ ์‹œ์‚ฌ

WASHINGTON โ€” Hanwha Philly Shipyard will construct a new missile range instrumentation vessel, dubbed Golden Defender to support the Pentagonโ€™s Golden Dome missile shield system, the head of the Office of Management and Budget said today

โ€œThis new ship will not only support the presidentโ€™s policies of restoring American maritime dominance, but also support the presidentโ€™s Golden Dome missile defense system over the entirety of our nation,โ€ Vought said.

https://breakingdefense.com/2026/07/new-golden-defender-missile-monitor-ship-to-be-built-at-hanwha-philly-shipyard/
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The House of Saud : ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” ๋ฐฉ๊ณต๋ง ์š”๊ฒฉ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ์œ„๊ธฐ ์‹ฌ๊ฐ์„ฑ ๋ณด๋„

7์›”13์ผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‚ฌ์šฐ๋””๋Š” ํ›„ํ‹ฐ ๋“œ๋ก  ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ์š”๊ฒฉ ์ค‘๋‹จ

The coalition has not launched a single airstrike against Yemen since July 13. On that date, six Houthi ballistic missiles and drones struck Abha International Airport and King Khalid Air Base at Khamis Mushait. No retaliatory strike followed, extending a four-year air pause that had held since the 2022 UN-brokered truce.

ํŒจํŠธ๋ฆฌ์–ดํŠธ ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ค€ -86% ๊ฐ์†Œ (์•ฝ 400๋ฐœ)

Saudi Arabiaโ€™s PAC-3 interceptor stockpile has fallen to approximately 400 rounds from an original inventory of 2,800 โ€” a drawdown of 86 percent over roughly 38 days of high-intensity combat in March and April 2026. CSIS analysts described the depletion rate as without precedent in the systemโ€™s operational history. Lockheed Martinโ€™s Camden, Arkansas production facility cannot deliver replacement rounds before 2028. At the consumption rates observed during the March-April period, the remaining 400 interceptors could be exhausted within two to six weeks of renewed high-intensity engagement.

๋ฐ˜๋ฉด ํ›„ํ‹ฐ ๋ฐ˜๊ตฐ ์•„๋žŒ์ฝ” ์ •์œ ์‹œ์„ค๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์‹œ์‚ฌ

Ansarullahโ€™s political bureau has named Saudi Aramcoโ€™s oil infrastructure as a target set โ€” oil wells, transmission lines, tankers, refineries, exporting ports, and petrochemical plants โ€” in a statement timed to arrive when Saudi Arabiaโ€™s air defenses cannot answer the threat. Hizam al-Assad published the list on July 18, one day after Abdul Malik al-Houthi declared all Saudi oil facilities legitimate targets in a televised address, and five days after six Houthi ballistic missiles struck Abha International Airport without drawing a single coalition airstrike in response.

ํŒŒํ‚ค์Šคํƒ„ HQ-9 ์ค‘๊ตญ์‚ฐ ๋ฐฉ๊ณต์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ ๋ฌด์šฉ์ง€๋ฌผ

Pakistanโ€™s HQ-9 battery operates outside Saudi Arabiaโ€™s integrated air defense system. Yanbu, the kingdomโ€™s only Red Sea oil export terminal bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, is running above its sustainable capacity ceiling. The threat exploits a defense vacuum that is structural, not temporary. Pakistanโ€™s HQ-9 battery at PSAB has yet to record a confirmed combat intercept

์‚ฌ์šฐ๋”” ์ฃผ์š” ์›์œ ์‹œ์„ค ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ํ›„ํ‹ฐ์˜ ๊ณต๊ฒฉ ๋ฒ”์œ„์— ์œ„์น˜

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy confirmed that the Sammad-3 loitering munition can reach Saudi targets as far as 900 miles from northern Yemen, and the Zulfiqar ballistic missile โ€” a Fateh-110 derivative โ€” has a range of 1,400 km, placing every named category inside the engagement envelope.

Abqaiq is the worldโ€™s largest crude oil processing and stabilization plant. Its capacity โ€” 7 million barrels per day โ€” accounts for more than half of Saudi Arabiaโ€™s total crude output. Every barrel of Saudi crude from the Eastern Provinceโ€™s Ghawar, Shaybah, and Khurais fields passes through Abqaiq before reaching an export terminal or the East-West Pipeline.

์ด๋ž€๊ณผ ์œ ์‚ฌํ•œ ๋“œ๋ก +๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ์„ž์–ด์˜๊ธฐ ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์žฌ๊ณ  ๊ณ ๊ฐˆ

The saturation problem compounds the stockpile problem. PAC-3 is designed to engage one target per interceptor โ€” each incoming drone, cruise missile, or ballistic reentry vehicle requires its own round. A saturation attack combining Sammad-3 drones, Quds-2 cruise missiles, and Zulfiqar ballistic missiles across multiple Aramco facilities simultaneously would force PAC-3 operators to allocate from a finite pool across multiple axes. At 400 remaining rounds distributed across the kingdomโ€™s entire air defense network, the arithmetic does not support sustained defense of even one major facility against a multi-vector saturation attack.

2-5์›” ์ƒํ™ฉ๊ณผ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ์›์œ  ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ฐจ์งˆ ์žฅ๊ธฐํ™” ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ ๋ถ€๊ฐ

The paradox is familiar to any energy-exporting state under military threat: a strike on its own infrastructure would likely spike crude prices and increase revenue per barrel on surviving output โ€” but only if the disruption is temporary and the market trusts the restoration timeline. A sustained disruption, or one that damages the East-West Pipelineโ€™s Abqaiq origin point, would reduce both volume and market confidence simultaneously. The 2019 attack took weeks to repair into a benign fiscal environment. The 2026 version has no such buffer.

https://houseofsaud.com/the-houthis-named-what-saudi-arabia-cannot-defend/
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์–ต.... ํƒœ์›์ดํ˜• ์ฒœ์กฐ๊ตญ์— ๊ฐ”๋‹ค๊ฐ€ CIA ๋น„๋ฐ€๊ธฐ์ง€๋ผ๋„ ๋Œ๋ ค๊ฐ”๋‹ค์™”์–ด??

https://m.etnews.com/20260719000064
๐Ÿคฃ39๐Ÿ’ฏ6๐Ÿคก11
์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ๋„ ๊ฐ€๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค..
๐Ÿ‘21๐Ÿ™4
[์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, ๋กœ๋ด‡ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰ โ€˜ํ•˜๋‚˜โ€™๋กœโ€ฆ๋กœ๋ด‡์‚ฌ์—…๋ถ€ ์ถœ๋ฒ” ์ฑ„๋น„]

- 16์ผ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๋Š” DX๋ถ€๋ฌธ ์‚ฐํ•˜์˜ โ€˜๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋กœ๋ด‡์ถ”์ง„๋‹จโ€™๊ณผ ์„ ํ–‰ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ(R&D) ์กฐ์ง์ธ ์‚ผ์„ฑ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋‚ด ๋กœ๋ด‡์ธ์žฌ, ์ƒ์‚ฐ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ ๋“ฑ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐˆ๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ๋œ ๋กœ๋ด‡ R&D ๋ฐ ์‚ฌ์—…ํ™” ์กฐ์ง์„ ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•œ ์ „๋‹ด ์กฐ์ง์„ ๊ณต์‹ ์ถœ๋ฒ”ํ•  ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋‹ค.

- ์ดํ›„ ๋…์ž์ ์ธ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋ผ์ธ์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ”๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ์ด ํ™•๋ณด๋˜๋ฉด ์ •์‹ โ€˜์‚ฌ์—…๋ถ€โ€™๋กœ ์Šน๊ฒฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ๋„ ๊ฒ€ํ†  ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค.

- ์กฐ์ง ํ†ตํ•ฉ๊ณผ ์ธ๋ ฅ ์žฌ๋ฐฐ์น˜๋ฅผ ์•ž๋‘๊ณ  ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž ์‚ฌ์—…์ง€์›์‹ค ์†Œ์† ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„๋‹จํŒ€์ด ๋กœ๋ด‡ ์กฐ์ง๋“ค์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€๋Œ€์ ์ธ ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„๋‹จ์„ ๋ฒŒ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค.

- ์—…๊ณ„์—์„  ์ด๋ฅด๋ฉด ์˜ฌ ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ๋“  ๋กœ๋ด‡์ด ์ž์‚ฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋ผ์ธ์— ํˆฌ์ž…๋  ๊ฑฐ๋ž€ ๊ด€์ธก๋„ ๋‚˜์˜จ๋‹ค.

============================

https://www.joongang.co.kr/article/25445724
โค10
[7/20, Kiwoom Weekly, ํ‚ค์›€ ์ „๋žต ํ•œ์ง€์˜]

"์—ฐ์‡„ ํญ๋ฝ ์ดํ›„ ํ•˜๋‹จ ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„โ€
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<Weekly Three Points>

a. ํœด์žฅ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„(15~16์ผ) ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฆ์‹œ๋Š” TSMC ํ˜ธ์‹ค์ ์—๋„, AI ์ˆ˜์š” ๋ถˆ์•ˆ ์ง€์†, ์ค‘๊ตญ AI ์—…์ฒด๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ์‹ฌํ™” ์šฐ๋ ค, ํ˜ธ๋ฅด๋ฌด์ฆˆ ํ•ดํ˜‘ ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ์••๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›์œผ๋ฉด์„œ ์•ฝ์„ธ ๋งˆ๊ฐ(2๊ฑฐ๋ž˜์ผ ๋ˆ„์  ๋“ฑ๋ฝ๋ฅ , ๋‹ค์šฐ -0.2%, S&P500 -0.5%, ๋‚˜์Šค๋‹ฅ -1.5%, ํ•„๋ผ๋ธํ”ผ์•„ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ง€์ˆ˜ -4.3%).

b. ์ฝ”์Šคํ”ผ์˜ 12๊ฐœ์›” ์„ ํ–‰ PER์€ 5.8๋ฐฐ๋กœ 20๋…„ ์ด๋ž˜ ์ตœ์ €์น˜๊นŒ์ง€ ๋‚ด๋ ค์˜จ ๋งŒํผ, 6,000pt ์ดˆ์ค‘๋ฐ˜ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์—์„œ ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ์ง€์ง€๋ ฅ์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•ด ๋‚˜๊ฐˆ ์˜ˆ์ •.

c. ์ฃผ์ค‘ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ๋Š” ์•ŒํŒŒ๋ฒณ ์‹ค์ ์œผ๋กœ, 26~27๋…„ CAPEX ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค ๋ณ€ํ™”, ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ๋ณธ์—… ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„  ์—ฌ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•  ์ „๋ง

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0.

์ด๋ฒˆ์ฃผ ์ฝ”์Šคํ”ผ๋Š” 1) ํœด์ผ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ์ค‘ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ์ผ๋ณธ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด์ฃผ ์•ฝ์„ธ, 2) ๋ฏธ-์ด๋ž€ ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ๊ฐˆ๋“ฑ, 3) ์•ŒํŒŒ๋ฒณ, ์ธํ…”, ํ…Œ์Šฌ๋ผ ๋“ฑ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋น…ํ…Œํฌ ์‹ค์ , 4) ํ˜„๋Œ€์ฐจ, ๋‘์‚ฐ์—๋„ˆ๋นŒ๋ฆฌํ‹ฐ, KB๊ธˆ์œต ๋“ฑ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ฃผ์š” ๊ธฐ์—… ์‹ค์ , 5) ๋‹จ์ผ์ข…๋ชฉ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๊ทœ์ œ ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์ดํ›„ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ๋ณ€ํ™” ๋“ฑ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›์œผ๋ฉด์„œ ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ์ง€์ง€๋ ฅ ํ…Œ์ŠคํŠธ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์— ๋Œ์ž…ํ•  ์ „๋ง(์ฃผ๊ฐ„ ์ฝ”์Šคํ”ผ ์˜ˆ์ƒ ๋ ˆ์ธ์ง€ 6,300~7,300pt).

1.

7์›” ์ดํ›„ ์ฝ”์Šคํ”ผ๋Š” ๊ณ ์  ๋Œ€๋น„ ์•ฝ -25.2%๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ ์ธ ์•ฝ์„ธ์žฅ์— ์ง„์ž…ํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ.

์—ฌ๊ธฐ์— ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž(๊ณ ์ ๋Œ€๋น„ -29.7%), SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค(-36.9%), ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „๊ธฐ(-43.7%) ๋“ฑ ์ฃผ๋„์ฃผ๋“ค์ด 30~40% ๊ธ‰๋ฝ์„ ๋งž์•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ด ์ฒด๊ฐ์ƒ ํ•˜๋ฝ์˜ ๊ฐ•๋„๋ฅผ ํ‚ค์šฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ์Šต.

๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง„ ์•…์žฌ์— ์‹œ์žฅ์ด ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž„.

CXMT ์ƒ์žฅ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ๊ฑด์„ค ์ง€์—ฐ, ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด์˜ ์ด์ต ์ฆ๊ฐ€์œจ ๋‘”ํ™” ๋“ฑ ์ง€๋‚œ์ฃผ ์กฐ์ • ์œ ๋ฐœ ์žฌ๋ฃŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ์— ํ•ด๋‹น.

์ด๋“ค์€ ์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์—๋„ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ฐจ๋ก€ ๋…ธ์ถœ๋๋˜ ์žฌ๋ฃŒ์˜€์ง€๋งŒ, ๋‹น์‹œ์—๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ด์ต ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์—…, AI ๋‚ด๋Ÿฌํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ ํ™•์‚ฐ, ์ฝ”์Šคํ”ผ ์ง€์ˆ˜ ์ƒํ–ฅ ์กฐ์ • ๋ฆด๋ ˆ์ด ๋“ฑ ์ƒ์Šน ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๋“ค์ด ์ด๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‡„์‹œํ‚ค๋ฉด์„œ ๊ฐ•์„ธ์žฅ์„ ๊ฒฌ์ธํ•ด์˜ค๊ธฐ๋Š” ํ–ˆ์Œ.

2.

์ด์ œ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์กด๊ณผ ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ๋ฐ˜์‘ ํ•จ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๋ณ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํƒœ.

์ƒ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์—ญ๋Œ€๊ธ‰ ํญ๋“ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ฐจ์ต์‹คํ˜„ ์š•๊ตฌ ๋ฐ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋˜๋Œ๋ฆผ ์••๋ ฅ ์ ์ฆ, ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด๋ฅผ ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ์‹ผ ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ๋‚ด๋Ÿฌํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ ๋ฐ ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฐœ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ํ˜ผ๋ž€ ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์—ฐ์‡„ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ์ด ์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ์ฒด๋ ฅ์„ ์•ฝํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ.

์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ง€๋‚ ์ˆ˜๋ก ์‹œ์žฅ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ๊ฐ€ ํŒ”๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ์•…์žฌ๋ฅผ ์†Œํ™˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์•…์ˆœํ™˜์˜ ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์‹ค์ •.

์•ž์œผ๋กœ ๊ทธ ์•…์ˆœํ™˜์„ ์–ด๋–ค ์‹์œผ๋กœ ํ’€์–ด ๋‚˜๊ฐˆ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•ด์ง„ ์‹œ์ .

์ผ๋‹จ ์ฝ”์Šคํ”ผ์˜ 12๊ฐœ์›” ์„ ํ–‰ PER์€ 5.8๋ฐฐ๋กœ 08๋…„ ๊ธˆ์œต์œ„๊ธฐ ์ €์  ํฌํ•จํ•ด 20๋…„ ์ด๋ž˜ ์ตœ์ €์น˜๊นŒ์ง€ ๋‚ด๋ ค์˜ฌ ์ •๋„๋กœ ๋‚™ํญ์ด ๊ณผ๋„ํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ.

๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ, 6,000pt ์ดˆ์ค‘๋ฐ˜ ๋ ˆ๋ฒจ์—์„œ ํ•˜๋ฐฉ ์ง€์ง€๋ ฅ์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•ด ๋‚˜๊ฐˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ฃผ์ค‘ ์˜ˆ์ •๋œ ์ฃผ์š” ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ตœ๊ทผ ์—ฐ์‡„ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ๋ถ„์„ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŒํšŒํ•ด ๋‚˜๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ด€๊ฑด.

3.

์ด๋ฒˆ์ฃผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋Š” AI ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์˜ ์‹ค์  ์‹œ์ฆŒ์€ AI ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ์ง€์†์„ฑ๊ณผ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด์ฃผ์˜ ๋””๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง• ๋ฐ ๋””๋ ˆ์ดํŒ… ๊ตญ๋ฉด ํƒˆ์ถœ ์—ฌ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๋™์‹œ์— ์ ๊ฒ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ถ„๊ธฐ์ ์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ.

์ฃผ ํ›„๋ฐ˜ 23์ผ(๋ชฉ) ์˜ˆ์ •๋œ ์•ŒํŒŒ๋ฒณ ์‹ค์ ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ด๋“ค์˜ 26~27๋…„ CAPEX ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค ๋ณ€ํ™”, ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ๋ณธ์—… ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„  ์—ฌ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•  ์ „๋ง.

ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ ๊ณ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ์œ ์ง€๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ CAPEX ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค๊นŒ์ง€ ์œ ์ง€ ๋˜๋Š” ์ƒํ–ฅ๋  ์‹œ AI ์ˆ˜์š” ์šฐ๋ ค๋ฅผ ๋œ์–ด ๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ.

TPU ๋“ฑ ์ž์ฒด AI ๊ฐ€์†๊ธฐ ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ๊ฒฌ์กฐํ•จ์ด ํ™•์ธ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์ด๋Š” HBM ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๋ฒ”์šฉ DRAM ์ˆ˜์š”์˜ ์ค‘์žฅ๊ธฐ ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ์„ ๋†’์ธ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์—์„œ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด์ฃผ์— ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ์žฌ๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ๋  ์˜ˆ์ •.

24์ผ(๊ธˆ) ์ธํ…” ์‹ค์ ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ๋งค์ถœ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์œจ๋ณด๋‹ค ์„œ๋ฒ„ CPU ์ถœํ•˜๋Ÿ‰์ด ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ํšŒ๋ณต๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ด€์ „ ํฌ์ธํŠธ.

์ตœ๊ทผ ์˜ฌํ•ด ์ด๋“ค์˜ ์‹ค์  ๊ฐœ์„ ์€ ํ‰๊ท ํŒ๋งค๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์— ์˜์กดํ•œ ์ธก๋ฉด์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ๋งŒํผ, ์ด๋ฒˆ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ์— ์„œ๋ฒ„ ์ถœํ•˜๋Ÿ‰๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑํ•  ์‹œ AI ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ GPU์™€ HBM์— ๊ตญํ•œ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  CPU์™€ ๋ฒ”์šฉ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ๋กœ ํ™•์‚ฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•  ์ „๋ง.

4.

๊ตญ๋‚ด์—์„œ๋Š” ํ˜„๋Œ€์ฐจ, ๋‘์‚ฐ์—๋„ˆ๋นŒ๋ฆฌํ‹ฐ, KB๊ธˆ์œต ๋“ฑ ์ฃผ๋ ฅ ์—…์ข…์ด์—ˆ๋˜ ๋กœ๋ณดํ‹ฑ์Šค, ์›์ „, ์€ํ–‰ ๋‚ด ๋Œ€์žฅ ์‹ค์ ์ด ๋Œ€๊ธฐ ์ค‘์— ์žˆ์Œ.

ํ˜„์žฌ ์ฝ”์Šคํ”ผ๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋‚ด๋Š” ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์กฐ์ • ๋ฐ ๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ ์ฆํญ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ๋†“์—ฌ์žˆ์œผ๋‚˜, ๋น„ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๊ด€๋ จ ์—…์ข…๋“ค์ด ๋™๋ฐ˜ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ์„ ๋งž๋Š” ๊ณผ์ •์—์„œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฉ”๋ฆฌํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์„ฑ๋œ ์ƒํƒœ.

์ด ๊ฐ™์€ ํ˜„์ƒ์€ ์ฃผ์ค‘ ๋น„ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์—…์ข…๋“ค์˜ ์‹ค์ ์ด ๊ฐœ๋ณ„ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์˜ ์ด‰๋งค๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋‚ดํฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธฐ์—, ์ฃผ ํ›„๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ์—…์ข…๋ณ„ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ ํƒ„๋ ฅ์ด ์ƒ์ดํ•ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ํŒ๋‹จ.

5.

์ง€๋‚œ ๊ธˆ์š”์ผ ๋ฐœํ‘œ๋œ ๋‹จ์ผ์ข…๋ชฉ ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๊ทœ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ์„ ์™„ํ™”์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๋„ ๊ด€์ „ ํฌ์ธํŠธ.

์‹ ๊ทœ ์ƒ์žฅ ์ค‘๋‹จ, ๊ด‘๊ณ  ๊ธˆ์ง€๋Š” ์ฆ‰์‹œ ์‹œํ–‰๋˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์˜ˆํƒ๊ธˆ ์ƒํ–ฅ(1,000๋งŒ์›->3,000๋งŒ์›), ๊ดด๋ฆฌ์œจ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ(3% -> 2%), ๋งค๋งค์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰ ๋‹จ์œ„ ๋ณ€๊ฒฝ(1์ขŒ -> 20์ขŒ) ๋“ฑ ์ฃผ์š” ๊ทœ์ œ์•ˆ๋“ค์€ 8์›”๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ˆœ์ฐจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋„์ž…๋  ์˜ˆ์ •.

์ด๋Š” ๊ทœ์ œ ๋ฐœํ‘œ ์งํ›„์ธ ๊ธˆ์ฃผ ์›”์š”์ผ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹ค์งˆ์ ์ธ ๋‹จ์ผ์ข…๋ชฉ ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€์˜ ๋ถ€์ž‘์šฉ์„ ํ•ด์†Œํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ์—๋Š” ํ•œ๊ณ„์ ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌ.

๊ธฐ์กด์— ์‹œ์žฅ์—์„œ ๊ฑฐ๋ก ๋๋˜ ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๋ฐฐ์œจ ์ถ•์†Œ, ๊ธฐ์กด ๋‹จ์ผ์ข…๋ชฉ ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์‹ ๊ทœ ์„ค์ • ์ œ์•ฝ ๋“ฑ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ๋“ค์ด ํฌํ•จ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์ ๋„ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€.

6.

๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด๋ฒˆ ๊ทœ์ œ์•ˆ์œผ๋กœ ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€ ๋ฒ ํŒ… ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ๊ณผ์—ด์„ ์–ต์ œํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ด๋‚˜, ์ด๋“ค ๋‹จ์ผ์ข…๋ชฉ ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€์˜ ์ „์ฒด AUM์ด 6์›” ๋ง 16์กฐ์›์„ ๊ณ ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ˜„์žฌ 10์กฐ์› ์ˆ˜์ค€์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ ์ ๋„ ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•  ํ•„์š”.

AUM ๊ทœ๋ชจ์™€ ๋ฆฌ๋ฐธ๋Ÿฐ์‹ฑ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์ด ๋น„๋ก€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์ด ์žˆ๊ธฐ์—, 7์›” 1~2์ฃผ์ฐจ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์ด๋“ค์ด ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด๋‚ด๋Š” ์ฆ์‹œ ์ „๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ™•์‚ฐ๋˜๋Š” ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ๋ณ€๋™์„ฑ ์ฆํญ ํ˜„์ƒ์ด ๋œํ•ด์งˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ.

ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š” ๋ ˆ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ง€๋ฐœ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰ ์ด์Šˆ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ์—…ํ™ฉ ๋ณธ์—ฐ์˜ ๋‚ด๋Ÿฌํ‹ฐ๋ธŒ, ํŽ€๋”๋ฉ˜ํ„ธ ํšŒ๋ณต ์—ฌ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰์„ ๋ฌด์ธ ๋งŒํผ, ๊ธฐ์—… ์‹ค์  ์ด๋ฒคํŠธ์— ๋ฌด๊ฒŒ์ค‘์‹ฌ์„ ๋‘๊ณ  ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ ์ ˆ.

https://www.kiwoom.com/h/invest/research/VMarketSWDetailView?sqno=792
โค4
ํ”„๋ฆฌ -3.8%
๋‚˜์„  /
์ค‘๋™์—์„œ ํ•˜์ด๋งˆ์Šค ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€๋ฉด ๋‹ค์—ฐ์žฅ ๋กœ์ผ“ ๊ณต๋ฐฑ์€ ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ”๊พธ๋‚˜?
โค9
๋‚˜์„  /

์•„~์ฃผ ์–‘ํ˜ธ
โค10
[ํ•˜๋‚˜/์—๋„ˆ์ง€ํ™”ํ•™/์œค์žฌ์„ฑ] ํšจ์„ฑํ‹ฐ์•ค์”จ: ํšŒ๋ณต ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์ง„์ž…์œผ๋กœ ์ปจ์„ผ 24% ์ƒํšŒ ์ „๋ง

โ–ถ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ: https://bit.ly/4pBKw5S


โ–ถ 2Q26 ์˜์—…์ด์ต ์ปจ์„ผ 24% ์ƒํšŒ ์ „๋ง

- ์˜์—…์ด์ต 1,618์–ต์›(QoQ +88%, YoY +121%)์œผ๋กœ ์ปจ์„ผ(1,305์–ต์›) 24% ์ƒํšŒ ์ „๋ง. ์ŠคํŒ๋ฑ์Šค/PTMG์˜ ๋Œ€ํญ ๊ฐœ์„ ๊ณผ ๋‚˜์ผ๋ก /ํด๋ฆฌ์˜ ํ‘์ž์ „ํ™˜ ๋•๋ถ„

- ์ŠคํŒ๋ฑ์Šค/PTMG 1,484์–ต์›(QoQ +96%, OPM +19.7%)์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐœ์„  ์ถ”์ •

- ์ค‘๊ตญ๋ฒ•์ธ(26๋งŒํ†ค/๋…„)์˜ ํŒ๊ฐ€/ํŒ๋งค๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ๊ฐ +15%/+10% ์ด์ƒ ์ƒ์Šน ์ถ”์ •. ํŒ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน ๊ตญ๋ฉด์—์„œ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ๋ž˜๊น…ํšจ๊ณผ๋„ ์ผ๋ถ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ์˜ํ–ฅ


โ–ถ 3Q26 ์˜์—…์ด์ต QoQ -13%๋กœ ์ถ•์†Œ๋˜๋‚˜, YoY +150% ๋†’์•„

- ์˜์—…์ด์ต 1,404์–ต์›(QoQ -13%, YoY +150%) ์˜ˆ์ƒ. ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ ์˜ํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰/ํŒ๊ฐ€ ์†Œํญ ์•ฝ์„ธ ์‹œํ˜„ ์˜ˆ์ƒ

- ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ŠคํŒ๋ฑ์Šค ์ฆ์„ค ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์ข…๋ฃŒ์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์žฌ๊ณ ์ผ์ˆ˜ 30์ผ ์ค‘ํ›„๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฑด์ „ํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ ๋“ฑ์„ ๊ฐ์•ˆํ•  ๋•Œ, ์‚ฌ์ดํด ํšŒ๋ณต์˜ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ฑ์€ ์šฐ์ƒํ–ฅ

- ์ŠคํŒ๋ฑ์Šค/PTMG 1,263์–ต์›(QoQ -15%, OPM +17.7%) ์ถ”์ •. ๋น„์ˆ˜๊ธฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ฐ์†Œ ๋ฐ ์ „๋ถ„๊ธฐ์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ ๊ธ์ •์  ๋ž˜๊น…ํšจ๊ณผ ์ผ๋ถ€ ์ œ๊ฑฐ ์˜ํ–ฅ


โ–ถ 2026๋…„ ์˜์—…์ด์ต YoY +111% ์ฆ๊ฐ€. PER 4.5๋ฐฐ์— ๋ถˆ๊ณผ

- BUY, TP 59๋งŒ์› ์œ ์ง€

- ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ŠคํŒ๋ฑ์Šค ์—…ํ™ฉ ํšŒ๋ณต ๊ตญ๋ฉด ์ง„์ž…. ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ฆ์„ค ์‚ฌ์ดํด ์ข…๋ฃŒ์™€ ์ผ๋ถ€ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์กฐ์ • ์˜ํ–ฅ. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ˆ˜์š”๋Š” ๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ CAGR +10% ์ด์ƒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€

- ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ŠคํŒ๋ฑ์Šค ์žฌ๊ณ ์ผ์ˆ˜๋Š” 2025๋…„ ์ดˆ 50์ผ ์ดˆ์—์„œ ํ˜„์žฌ 38์ผ๋กœ ๋Œ€ํญ ์ถ•์†Œ๋˜๊ณ , ๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ ๋„ 70% ๋Œ€์—์„œ 80% ์ค‘๋ฐ˜๊นŒ์ง€ ์ƒ์Šนํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์„ธ๋ฅผ ์ง€์ง€

- ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์ ˆ์  ์š”์ธ์„ ์ œ์™ธํ•˜๊ณ  ํ–ฅํ›„ ์ˆ˜ ๋…„๊ฐ„ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ํšŒ๋ณต ์‚ฌ์ดํด์— ์ฃผ๋ชฉํ•  ํ•„์š”

- 2026๋…„ ์˜์—…์ด์ต 5,293์–ต์›(YoY +111%)์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€ํญ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•  ์ „๋ง์ด๋‚˜, ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๋Š” YTD +22% ์ƒ์Šน์— ๋ถˆ๊ณผ

- ๊ฒŒ๋‹ค๊ฐ€, ์‚ฌ์ดํด ํšŒ๋ณต ์ดˆ์ž…์—์„œ PER์€ 4.5๋ฐฐ์— ๋ถˆ๊ณผํ•˜๋ฉฐ, PBR์€ 0.7๋ฐฐ๋กœ ROE 16% ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ ˆ๋Œ€ ์ €ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์ƒํƒœ

- 2026~27๋…„ ์ถ”์ •์น˜๋ฅผ 25% ๊ฐ€๋Ÿ‰ ์ƒํ–ฅํ•˜๋‚˜, ๋ณด์ˆ˜์  ๊ด€์ ์—์„œ TP๋Š” ์œ ์ง€. ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ TP ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ Upside๋Š” +117%๋กœ ๋†’์•„



** ํ•˜๋‚˜์ฆ๊ถŒ/์—๋„ˆ์ง€ํ™”ํ•™/์œค์žฌ์„ฑ

https://t.iss.one/energy_youn
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