THE BIGGEST RISK TO MARKETS COULD BE BACK.
Inflation.
Inflation had just started cooling. Oil crashed from over $120 down toward $70 after the ceasefire in June, and that drop showed up directly in softer CPI and PPI prints.
Now the ceasefire has collapsed, the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted again, and the exact mechanism that cooled inflation is reversing.
The setup forming right now looks a lot like 1973: a sudden oil supply shock hitting an economy with no spare capacity left to absorb it.
The Strait of Hormuz normally carries 20.3 million barrels per day, about 20% of global oil consumption. Since the ceasefire broke down, tanker traffic through it has dropped more than 90%.
Now the backup route is also at risk.
The Bab el-Mandeb strait carries another 7.4 million barrels per day, about 7% of global output.
Reuters reports Iran has directly told the Houthis to prepare closing it if the US strikes Iran's power infrastructure.
If both routes shut at once, roughly 27% of global oil supply gets disrupted simultaneously.
Normally, this is where the US steps in and releases oil to cap the price spike. But not this time.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at 326 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, after 13 straight weeks of drawdowns.
The one tool that's absorbed every oil shock since the 1970s has far less room left to work with.
That matters because the Fed is already primed to react.
The June dot plot shows 9 of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike in 2026, and the median inflation forecast was just revised up to 3.6%. The Fed isn't starting from a comfortable place.
It's starting from a place where inflation is already the top concern.
Put it together the cooling trend in inflation was built entirely on oil staying down, that support just broke, the reserve has little left to cushion a fresh spike, and the Fed is already leaning toward hiking, not cutting.
That's the exact combination that turns a regional conflict back into an inflation problem for the entire market.
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Inflation.
Inflation had just started cooling. Oil crashed from over $120 down toward $70 after the ceasefire in June, and that drop showed up directly in softer CPI and PPI prints.
Now the ceasefire has collapsed, the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted again, and the exact mechanism that cooled inflation is reversing.
The setup forming right now looks a lot like 1973: a sudden oil supply shock hitting an economy with no spare capacity left to absorb it.
The Strait of Hormuz normally carries 20.3 million barrels per day, about 20% of global oil consumption. Since the ceasefire broke down, tanker traffic through it has dropped more than 90%.
Now the backup route is also at risk.
The Bab el-Mandeb strait carries another 7.4 million barrels per day, about 7% of global output.
Reuters reports Iran has directly told the Houthis to prepare closing it if the US strikes Iran's power infrastructure.
If both routes shut at once, roughly 27% of global oil supply gets disrupted simultaneously.
Normally, this is where the US steps in and releases oil to cap the price spike. But not this time.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at 326 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, after 13 straight weeks of drawdowns.
The one tool that's absorbed every oil shock since the 1970s has far less room left to work with.
That matters because the Fed is already primed to react.
The June dot plot shows 9 of 18 officials projecting at least one rate hike in 2026, and the median inflation forecast was just revised up to 3.6%. The Fed isn't starting from a comfortable place.
It's starting from a place where inflation is already the top concern.
Put it together the cooling trend in inflation was built entirely on oil staying down, that support just broke, the reserve has little left to cushion a fresh spike, and the Fed is already leaning toward hiking, not cutting.
That's the exact combination that turns a regional conflict back into an inflation problem for the entire market.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🤖🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
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Argentina fans take over Times Square
For once we're not seeing third world Muslims crowd Times Square
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For once we're not seeing third world Muslims crowd Times Square
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Turkish karate guy aims at the apple but instead kicks the living sh!t out of the unfortunate lady
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Leftists in Portland, Ore. are spreading stickers around with the hoax that they are being politically persecuted. This follows after their Antifa comrades in Texas were convicted after a trial proved they were part of a conspiracy to ambush a federal building in a shooting and then hide evidence of their extremist ideology.
This false persecution complex functions to radicalize their comrades into carrying out more violence.
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This false persecution complex functions to radicalize their comrades into carrying out more violence.
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A massive "takeover" in Chicago turned deadly, with three people shot and one killed after huge brawls broke out. Teens as young as 13 were seen fighting in the streets.
The 34-year-old man was shot in the legs, the 35-year-old man was shot in the body and the 54-year-old man was shot in the body. All three were hospitalized, they survived.
A 44-year-old man was shot in the chest and taken to University of Chicago Medical Center in critical condition, where he later died.
When public safety becomes optional, everyone pays the price.
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The 34-year-old man was shot in the legs, the 35-year-old man was shot in the body and the 54-year-old man was shot in the body. All three were hospitalized, they survived.
A 44-year-old man was shot in the chest and taken to University of Chicago Medical Center in critical condition, where he later died.
When public safety becomes optional, everyone pays the price.
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Leftist international terror group Palestine Action is urging pro-Palestine people to put down the protest flags and take up violent terror training.
"Waving flags won't stop the flow of weapons but direct action will."
The group has carried out a number of attacks on law enforcement, military infrastructure, businesses and property.
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"Waving flags won't stop the flow of weapons but direct action will."
The group has carried out a number of attacks on law enforcement, military infrastructure, businesses and property.
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Tech returns are nearing 2000 Dot-com levels:
The information technology sector has returned an average of +9% per year over the last 10 years, the best performance of any US sector.
This annualized return has doubled since the 2020 pandemic.
This also matches the peak performance of the communication services sector during the recovery from the 2008 Financial Crisis.
By comparison, tech stocks delivered a 10-year annualized return of +13% during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.
The IT sector has now been the best-performing US sector for 7 consecutive years, the longest streak since the 1960s.
Tech continues to rewrite market history.
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The information technology sector has returned an average of +9% per year over the last 10 years, the best performance of any US sector.
This annualized return has doubled since the 2020 pandemic.
This also matches the peak performance of the communication services sector during the recovery from the 2008 Financial Crisis.
By comparison, tech stocks delivered a 10-year annualized return of +13% during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.
The IT sector has now been the best-performing US sector for 7 consecutive years, the longest streak since the 1960s.
Tech continues to rewrite market history.
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JUST IN: Scientists identify a new monkey species in Congo’s rainforest — the fifth discovered in Africa in 75 years
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