👀 Who Pumped Gold? Central Banks Did the Heavy Lifting

Since 2020, countries have added nearly 2,000 tons of gold to their reserves, according to data from Visual Capitalist.🔎

Top gold buyers since 2020:
• China: +357 tons
• Poland: +314 tons
• Turkey: +251 tons
• Italy: +245 tons
• Brazil: +105 tons

📌 What’s behind it?

▪️Beijing continues its long-term strategy of reducing reliance on the US dollar.
▪️Warsaw is hedging against economic and political instability in the EU.

Then retail investors joined the party — and gold prices went vertical 📈
As a side effect, silver also pumped, becoming the “cheap alternative” once gold started to look too expensive.

Smart money first, retail later — classic market cycle. 🔄

🇯🇵 Metaplanet: Japan’s “MicroStrategy” Deep in the Red on Bitcoin

📉 Metaplanet reported an unrealized loss of ~$664M (¥102.2B) from revaluing its Bitcoin holdings for FY2025. Despite the drawdown, the company massively increased its BTC stack to 35,102 BTC, up from just 1,762 a year earlier — making it the 4th largest public Bitcoin holder, often compared to Strategy.

📉 The loss is purely on paper, but the market reacted: Metaplanet shares (ticker 3350) are now ~80% below their June peak on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

📊 At the same time, fundamentals look wild:
• Revenue +738% YoY to ~$58M
• Profit +1,694% YoY to ~$41M

💡 The key driver wasn’t BTC price appreciation, but Bitcoin options trading. Because of this, Metaplanet says it’s no longer just a “Bitcoin treasury,” but a company focused on Bitcoin and derivatives operations.

High conviction, high volatility — Japanese-style Bitcoin maximalism in action.

Tom Lee: Crypto winter is either over or will end by April

Key takeaways from his latest podcast:

1️⃣ Market Sentiment: Panic selling in crypto signals the bottom is near. Most TradFi investors are happy not to own BTC — another sign the market is early in recovery.

2️⃣ BTC vs Gold: Short-term BTC weakness vs Gold doesn’t mean structural loss. Since 2010, BTC has outpaced inflation far more consistently than Gold, even through bear markets.

3️⃣ Macro Tailwinds: Cooling inflation, a dovish new Fed chair, and ISM >50 indicate the US economy is shifting from slowdown to growth — bullish for stocks and crypto in 2026.

4️⃣ Ethereum Strategy: BitMine buys ETH weekly (~4.2M ETH), stakes it, and earns ~$1M/day. Large fiat reserves ($600M) allow strategic accumulation during dips.

5️⃣ Main Idea: Panic is part of the cycle; historically, BTC bottoms are sharp and V-shaped. Trying to perfectly time the bottom risks missing the move.

📊 Bitcoin slips out of the Top 10 assets 👀

📉 Bitcoin has dropped out of the world’s top 10 most valuable assets and is now valued below Tesla, once infamous for heavy losses.

It’s a sharp contrast to recent peaks and a reminder of how fast rankings can change in risk-off markets. While BTC cools down, traditional equities are briefly taking the spotlight again.

Markets rotate — narratives follow. The leaderboard never stays the same for long. 📉➡️📈

📉 From “Supercycle” back to the 4-year playbook

🔎 Crypto analysts have suddenly forgotten about the 2026 supercycle and returned to the classic 4-year cycle narrative. According to it, Bitcoin is expected to form a bottom within the next year — usually in the second half of the cycle 😏

For now, BTC keeps moving sideways. Futures on the S&P 500 hint at a relatively calm session, while bears seem busy elsewhere: gold (-1.45%) and silver (-2.16%) are taking the hit today 📉.

Same market, new-old story. 🤷

📉 More than a dip — signs of a bear market?

According to CryptoQuant, the current price action looks less like a routine pullback and more like a transition into a bear market.

The Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) has dropped into the 0.92–0.94 range — levels that in 2019 and 2023 coincided with deep corrections and widespread loss realization.

Historically, a durable bottom tends to form only after even stronger compression and a clear capitulation peak. For now, this signal points to structural weakness, not the end of the decline.

In short: pain may not be over yet. 🐻📊

🇺🇸 Harvard rotates from BTC to ETH

According to the latest 13F filing, Harvard University adjusted its crypto exposure in Q4 2025.

• The university cut its Bitcoin ETF position by 21%, from $442M to $265M.
• At the same time, Harvard opened a new position in Ethereum ETFs worth $87M.

Looks like one of the world’s top endowments is rebalancing rather than exiting crypto, shifting part of its bet from BTC to ETH. Quiet move — but a telling one. 👀📊

💰 Strategy keeps buying the dip

Strategy added 2,486 BTC for $168.4M, paying an average of $67,710 per coin.

📊 As of Feb 16, 2026:

• Total holdings: 717,131 BTC
• Total spent: $54.52B
• Average entry price: $76,027

Yes, the data came out a bit late — looks like an intern forgot to hit “post” 😁
But the message is clear: Strategy is still stacking, even below its average price. 💪

📉 Bitcoin could dip to $55K before a reversal

The CEO of CryptoQuant believes the market is now in a full-fledged bear phase, and a sustainable recovery may take months.

Key points:
• Despite hundreds of billions in capital inflows, total market cap is stagnating — sell pressure outweighs demand.
• ETF inflows are slowing, while OTC demand is weakening.
• Institutional investors are trimming positions and pulling capital.
• Large holders are executing aggressive sell-offs.

📊 Possible scenarios:
1️⃣ BTC drops to ~$55K, then forms a reversal.
2️⃣ Prolonged consolidation in the $60K–$70K range before the next uptrend.

❗️Altcoins look even weaker: fresh capital is flowing only into a few tokens with ETF narratives, while the broad “rising tide lifts all boats” story is gone.

Patience may matter more than hopium in this phase. 🧐

🚀 Ethereum hits a new milestone

For the first time in history, over 50% of all ETH supply is now locked in Proof-of-Stake staking contracts, according to data from Santiment. 🔎

This signals a growing shift from speculation to yield and long-term conviction. During market slowdowns, trading activity typically drops — and staking becomes the preferred strategy for many holders.

📈 If the market remains weak or sideways, the share of staked ETH is likely to keep increasing, further reducing liquid supply and strengthening Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals.

🌐 Global uncertainty hits an all-time high

The world has entered the most uncertain period in modern history — surpassing the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2008 global financial crisis, and even the dot-com bubble 👀

Geopolitics, rates, inflation, tech shifts — everything is in flux at once.
In an environment like this, even traditional markets struggle with direction.

So yeah… trying to confidently predict where crypto goes next feels a bit like fortune-telling 🔮🤔

High uncertainty = high volatility. Buckle up. 🎢

📉 Altcoins under the heaviest pressure in 5 years

🔎 According to data from CryptoQuant, sell pressure on altcoins has reached a five-year extreme.

📊 This isn’t a short-term dip — it’s 13 straight months of net selling on spot CEX markets. Demand is drying up, liquidity is thin, and buyers are simply not stepping in.

With many alts breaking new lows again and again, the big question remains:
who’s going to catch a falling knife for the fifth time in a row? 🤷‍♂️

For now, the market is clearly in survival mode rather than accumulation.

📈The gap between Strategy and IBIT is shrinking fast

Strategy is now just 44,000 BTC behind IBIT, BlackRock’s flagship Bitcoin ETF. 👀

Institutions aren’t just buying Bitcoin — they’re competing for control over supply. And this race is far from over 🟠🏁

🤞 Eric Trump stays ultra-bullish on Bitcoin

Eric Trump says he still believes Bitcoin can reach $1 million — and claims he’s never been more optimistic about BTC and crypto overall.

This optimism isn’t happening in a vacuum. According to Bloomberg, the family of Donald Trump earned around $1.4B from crypto assets in 2025, making digital assets a major contributor to their growing net worth. 💵

When crypto brings in billions, long-term conviction suddenly becomes much easier 😅

📊 CryptoQuant Signal: BTC Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Hits Buy Zone

🔎 According to CryptoQuant, the Sharpe Ratio for short-term Bitcoin positions has dropped into an extremely negative zone — a level that historically marked peak market stress.

🔹 The Sharpe Ratio measures risk-adjusted returns
🔹 Current readings are at extreme lows
🔹 In past cycles, this zone appeared near local bottoms
🔹 Every previous dip here was followed by sharp rebounds and new highs

📈 While sentiment remains bearish, data suggests risk/reward is quietly shifting in favor of buyers.

As always, signals don’t guarantee outcomes — but this is a zone the market has respected before. 👀

🔍 “Bitcoin Going to Zero” Searches Hit Record High

Panic is peaking. According to Google Trends, global searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” reached an all-time high (100) in February 2026 — the highest level in over 3.5 years. 🙀

📉 This comes as Bitcoin trades ~50% below its ATH of $126,080 (Oct 6, 2025), amid macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Key signals of fear:
▪️ Search spike mirrors June 2022 capitulation
▪️ Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 11 (extreme fear), recently dipped to 5
▪️ Retail sentiment reacting sharply to volatility

🧠 Debate in the market:
Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin notes that buying during extreme fear doesn’t guarantee short-term gains — average 90-day returns below 25 on the index are just ~2.4%.

📈 But zoom out:
Historically, over a 12-month horizon, BTC has delivered 300%+ average gains after extreme fear phases. 🚀

⚖️ Short-term fear dominates, panic searches explode — but for long-term investors, this is the classic battlefield where accumulation narratives are born.

🔥 Wall Street Loads Up on BitMine Shares

Institutional heavyweights are aggressively increasing exposure to BitMine, according to recent 13F filings. 📝

Major moves:
▪️ Morgan Stanley: +26% (12.2M shares)
▪️ ARK Invest: +27% (9.5M)
▪️ BlackRock: +166% (9M)
▪️ Goldman Sachs: +588% (5.2M)
▪️ Bank of America: +1668% (3.2M)
▪️ Vanguard, Citigroup, Charles Schwab — also added heavily.

📊 In total, 457 institutional holders now control 136.7M BitMine shares worth $2.86B.

💡 Reminder: BitMine, backed by Tom Lee, is the largest corporate holder of Ethereum.

When Wall Street piles in like this, it’s rarely random. Institutions are clearly positioning for something big. 🤔

🤔 Retail Is Almost Gone — CryptoQuant

🔎 According to CryptoQuant, retail participation in the market has nearly vanished.

Historically, mass retail capitulation has tended to occur in the late stages of a Bitcoin correction, not at the beginning.

📉 When small investors exit en masse:
▪️ Selling pressure is often close to exhaustion
▪️ Weak hands are flushed out
▪️ Market structure starts shifting toward stabilization

🔜 While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate reversal, past cycles show that periods of minimal retail presence have often preceded the formation of a local or macro bottom for Bitcoin.

Retail fear is peaking — and historically, that’s when the market starts setting the stage for the next move. 👀

😮 BTC Enters a “Buy Zone”

The Bitcoin Short-Term Sharpe Ratio, flagged by CryptoQuant, has entered a zone where cycle bottoms historically formed, followed by market recovery.

📊 In past cycles, this signal often marked:
▪️ Peak fear
▪️ Exhausted sellers
▪️ The start of a rebound for Bitcoin

…but reality loves plot twists 😏

Possible 2026 сценарий:
▪️ BTC starts moving toward $75k
▪️ FOMO kicks in → $80k
▪️ Trump attacks Iran

💥 Result: Bitcoin at $30k — congratulations, now that’s your perfect buy zone 😁

💥Crypto companies Kalshi, Polymarket, and Phantom have been named among the Top 50 most innovative fintech companies worldwide by Forbes!

This marks a major milestone for the industry: prediction markets and crypto wallets are no longer niche tools, but core parts of the global fintech landscape.

📌 Crypto infrastructure is steadily moving from the fringe into the financial mainstream — with institutional recognition to match.

🐸 Vitalik vs Aliens

Vitalik Buterin placed a $148,000 bet on Polymarket that the US will NOT officially confirm the existence of aliens before 2027. 👀

This comes right after Donald Trump promised to declassify UFO-related files — which instantly pushed Polymarket odds from 12% to 28%.

🧠 Vitalik’s track record:

2024: $52k bet → +$1.5k
2025: $25k bet → +$2.7k
2026: $148k on “NO” → potential +$16k

💬 You can invent Ethereum, but Trump can still move the market with one sentence.

Now the question: does Vitalik double down… or is disclosure closer than we think? 👽